Portfolio manager market views and asset allocation insights

Mike: What were you saying?  

Tom: I’m sitting here in Milan. All right.  

Mike: Ah.  

Good morning, I’m Mike Pyle, the Deputy head of the Portfolio Management Group at BlackRock. It's the week of October 12th. Here are three things you need to know, and one you don’t.  

Number one.  

US fiscal policy is increasingly important as a market driver. Deficits, nearly 6% of GDP. We’re seeing interest expense rise to 3.5% of the economy on interest expense. There’s huge demand for capital, not just in the federal government, but around the AI buildout as well. That increased competition for capital is pushing interest rates higher. Because it’s real rates that reflects higher growth and productivity expectations, we think equity markets can remain a source of growth and remain resilient.  

Next Up.  

Mike:  

My friend and colleague, Tom Becker. Tom, I know you’re in Milan right now. What’s front of mind about what’s driving European economics and markets? 

Tom:  

Mike, great question. Fiscal policy is front and center in the driver's seat of markets. You got a 2-3% budget deficit in Italy, 5-6% in France, and a big question mark in Germany with the political instability. What we’re seeing is that common currency area is really moving in different directions and that’s driving changes in asset correlation that we haven’t seen in over a decade. Punchline is European equities are looking oversold, but the ECB is gonna have to keep hiking.   

Which brings us to.  

My colleagues at the BlackRock Investment Institute published their updated geopolitical risk dashboard. I think what it highlights is stresses on global energy markets. We don't see a definitive resolution in The Middle East. We see ongoing stresses. When we look to the Russian-Ukraine conflict we see the likelihood of escalation from here, rather than deescalation. Bottom line, energy has been a big subtheme in 2026. That’s likely to continue. 

And finally.  

Tom:  

Mike, food here is excellent. Had a risotto. Can’t beat it. Hot take? Come to Italy for the food, also the coffee.  

Mike:  

Well, same basic take, but my hot take is that actually the best Italian dish, pizza, is right here on the east coast of the United States, not in Italy. Love it though, I do.  

Tom:  

Great, love it.  

Mike:  

Yeah. Best slice in the city? Di Fara. Avenue J.  

To get more 3+1, be sure to follow us on LinkedIn and YouTube. We’ll see you next week.  

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