Markets started the year navigating a range of headlines — from earnings and geopolitics to renewed tariff concerns. Despite that noise, the S&P 500 gained about 2% in January. More importantly, we saw clear signs of market broadening, with small caps and value outperforming.
:20
At the macro level, the backdrop remains constructive. Economic growth momentum has continued, inflation is trending lower, and tariff pass-through has remained limited, giving the Fed room to stay patient even as interest rate cuts are now expected later rather than earlier.
:36
Earnings season is reinforcing this message. The rates at which earnings and sales are beating expectations are running above historical averages. And while mega-cap tech continues to lead growth, all sectors are expected to deliver positive earnings growth — with value winning on acceleration.
:57
Looking ahead, we believe the cost of staying on the sidelines is rising. We remain constructive on stocks, prefer higher-yielding bonds over cash for income, and see a role for diversifiers like gold and flexible strategies to help improve portfolio outcomes.
1:14
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Recent market moves reflect investors are rotating away from software and cloud-exposed names amid AI-driven disruption risk, while maintaining exposure to AI infrastructure and hardware.5
In fixed income, it’s still possible for returns amid ~2.5% inflation and falling interest rates. We believe securitized markets, mortgages, and EM debt can enhance income opportunities.6
Gold has hovered near record levels, briefly topping $5,000/oz, while silver remains elevated. Both have been volatile amid shifting rate expectations, currency moves, and geopolitical uncertainty.7
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1. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index Excluding Food and Energy. Data for September 2025 (released 12/5/25).
2. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product. Data for Q3 2025 (released 12/23/25).
3. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted. Data for December 2026 (released 1/9/26).
4. Factset, "Earnings Insight." Data for Q3 2025 (released 12/12/25).
5. Bloomberg as of 2/12/2026.
6. Bloomberg as of 2/12/2026.
7. Bloomberg, as of 2/12/2026. Gold represented by the Gold Dollar Spot Index, and silver represented by the Silver Dollar Spot Index. As of Feb 12, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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