Warsh acknowledged above-trend inflation and reaffirmed the Fed’s 2% PCE inflation target, and stopped short of forward guidance. The September FOMC meeting remains live, but we lean toward a pause.4
Treasury’s move to double the max size of long-end buybacks from $2B to $4B, alongside geopolitical risks and higher energy prices, has supported the debasement trade, with gold and Bitcoin rallying.5
Nvidia’s Q2 results reinforced strong AI earnings, while its higher-than-expected 2027 revenue outlook suggests compute may remain scarce and the AI infrastructure buildout has further to run.6
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1. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index Excluding Food and Energy. Data for July 2026 (released 8/26/2026).
2. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product. Second estimate, Q2 2026 (released 8/26/2026).
3. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Civilian Unemployment Rate. Data for July 2026 (released 8/7/2026).
4. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “Keynote remarks by Chairman Warsh at the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium,” 8/28/2026. PCE refers to Personal Consumption Expenditures, the primary measure of consumer spending and inflation used by the Federal Reserve.
5. U.S. Department of the Treasury, “Treasury Announces Increased Sizes of Nominal Long-End Liquidity Support Buybacks Beginning September 9,” 8/19/2026. Gold prices represented by the Gold United States Dollar Spot, Bitcoin prices represented by the Bitcoin United States Dollar Spot, from Bloomberg, August 2026 monthly price performance.
6. NVIDIA, Q2 FY2027 earnings results and earnings call, 8/26/2026.
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