探索投資新高度

客戶經常提出的一個關鍵問題是 「人工智能如何幫助我們投資？」

我是貝萊德系統化主動型股票投資團隊基金經理Rui Zhao。 環球市場的股票數量眾多， 投資者要自行分析可謂極為困難， 從各樣來源的資訊中提取對那些公司的有用觀點， 例如公司的產品、盈利能力及增長前景等。 而這正是人工智能帶來的優勢， 亦是我們一直在貝萊德系統分析平台上使用人工智能作出分析及投資的原因。

我們早在2008年便開始使用人工智能， 建立基礎來累積所有的大數據， 並訓練機器來分析數據。 我們每天評估約五千隻證券， 不斷提升機器學習技術， 並持續改進訊號，藉此提高實現超額回報的效率。 這些訊號有助我們識別消費者中流行的產品， 例如獲網絡紅人推薦的產品， 並評估投資者情緒及社交媒體帖文， 範圍涵蓋不同平台及語言。 我們還能從與監管機構交換的企業文件中發現早期警示訊號， 這可能反映了對股東價值的潛在負面影響。 因此，透過在投資過程中使用人工智能， 我們務求更準確預測回報， 為客戶締造穩定收益潛力。

Over the years we’ve seen the investment landscape evolve dramatically. The industry has tied itself in knots trying to make something which, at its heart should be quite straightforward, into something of astonishing complexity.

They’re trying to solve for multiple competing issues, attempting to deliver consistent alpha while also ensuring acceptable performance volatility relative to a benchmark on a quarterly or annual basis. In order to do this, investors then have to trade frequently to time economic cycles, changes in bond yields, and so on - all within statistical risk parameters. The chances of a misstep whilst trying to juggle these competing factors is astonishingly high. The greatest threat to any portfolio is the risk of being repeatedly whipsawed, and it’s precisely this that leads to so many investors buying high and selling low.

How about we simply redefine our opportunity set and just invest all our capital in the world’s best companies and then leave it there for years, and years, and years. And that’s what the global unconstrained equity fund is. We invest all the assets into those few extraordinary companies that are both great now, and which we believe are highly likely to still be great in 10 years time.

So, if long-term capital growth is the primary objective, then we should just focus on that, and ignore all the noise. We start by completely ignoring the benchmark and then - build a portfolio which adheres to the following objectives:
 - Identify the rare companies that we believe have a very high likelihood of sustaining high returns for a decade and longer.
 - Select a small number of them in a concentrated portfolio to maximise their impact.
 - Hold them for a long time and allow them to compound for years and years.

This is what we mean by unconstrained investing. It’s a deeply fundamental, extremely simple approach designed for optimists who believe that the extraordinary opportunity set offered by equity markets could offer something better than benchmark returns. We therefore aim to invest in the winners. 

亞洲客戶提出的關鍵問題是 , 我們在科技行業看到強大增長 , 若它已經結束或只是噱頭 , 那麼科技行業是否會持續增長 ?

我是貝萊德科技產業投資團隊的負責人 Tony Kim 。

我認為我們才剛剛起步 , 而且這投資主題將會主導這十年餘下時間 。 針對人工智能及其對科技行業所帶來的影響 , 我們在智能發展方面仍處於初期階段 。 我們全方位檢視人工智能 , 當中我們分解人工智能的所有元素 , 從能源到計算 、 軟件 、 模型 、 數據到應用程式 。 然後我們觀察這些類別和子類別 , 並沿著整個系統進行投資 。
我們相信這趨勢將持續整個十年 , 因此科技行業增長絕對不會就此結束 , 事實上 , 這行業趨勢才剛剛開始 。