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BlackRock Bottom Line: 2023 Global outlook

Speaker:

Wei Li

BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist

The new regime of greater macro and market volatility is playing out – and that’s not about to change. We believe investors need a new playbook for the new regime and the three themes for the 2023 global outlook are pricing the damage, rethinking bonds and living with inflation.

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Title: BlackRock Investment Insitute: 2023 Global outlook

Our first theme is pricing the damage. We see major economies heading for recessions as central banks eventually back off from aggressive rate hikes. We need an ongoing dynamic assessment of the damage to come as well as to what extent it’s reflected in market pricing.

Our second theme is rethinking bonds. This new playbook requires looking at bonds differently, including the role of duration in a portfolio at times of recession and it also requires going more granular on fixed income views beyond the broad asset class block.

The third theme is living with inflation. We see three long-term drivers – aging workforces, geopolitical fragmentation and the net zero transition keeping inflation higher versus pre-pandemic levels, even as headline inflation falls heading into next year.

The bottom line is we believe that the old recession playbook may not work in the upcoming recession and investors should be prepared to make more frequent adjustments to portfolios based on balancing a risk-taking view with the estimate of how financial markets are pricing in economic damage.

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This material is intended for information purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities, funds or strategies to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The opinions expressed are as of November 2022 and are subject to change without notice. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investing involves risks.

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A new investment playbook

The new regime of greater economic and market volatility is playing out – and not going away. Read why a new playbook is needed in our 2023 investment outlook.

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