Energy security in a world shaped by supply

Investment Perspectives

June 22, 2026 | Geopolitical shocks and surging power demand are exposing the fragilities of today's energy system and putting energy security back at the center of policy and markets.

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Energy security fragilities

Two geopolitical shocks in four years have exposed a defining feature of today's energy system: fuel supply remains concentrated in a handful of regions and strategic chokepoints. That makes disruption a recurring and systemwide risk, not a one-off event. As most of the world's population lives in economies that are net importers of oil and gas, supply shocks can quickly ripple through inflation, growth and markets.

The risks extend beyond energy prices. Economies dependent on imported fuels also face higher costs for energy-linked inputs and supply chains, reinforcing the importance of energy security in policy and market outcomes.

Highly exposed
Share of population living in net fuel importers, 2022

Source: BlackRock Investment Institute with data from Ember and International Energy Agency World Energy, Balance, April 2025.

The rising value of electricity security

These shocks are adding further pressure to an energy system where demand acceleration — particularly in electricity — was already creating stress. AI, data centers, cooling and electric vehicles are adding to structural power-demand growth, increasing the importance of how energy systems are built and where capacity can be added.

Unlike globally traded fuels, electricity systems are local, real-time and dependent on domestic infrastructure. As demand rises, bottlenecks in generation, transmission, storage and grid infrastructure are becoming more binding, increasing the value of reliable and resilient power systems.

Deployment timeframes vary widely
Estimated average power generation time-to-market

For illustration only. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute with information from Ember (2025), International Energy Agency (2023), and S&P (2025). Notes: Chart shows typical deployment timelines; light-to-dark shading reflects the range of estimated build times; does not reflect outliers or project-specific delays. Timelines vary by technology and region based on construction, permitting, and approvals. Residential power generation buildout estimated between one day and several months. Carbon Capture, Usage, and Storage (CCUS ) is a technology aimed at capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from industrial processes. Gas peaker plants refers to open-cycle gas turbines (OCGT). Gas plants refer to combined-cycle gas plants (CCGT). “?” = Highly uncertain timeline for commercial nuclear fusion plants.

Investing in a world shaped by supply

We see investment opportunities emerging across two horizons.

In the near term, markets are placing greater value on secure supply, flexibility and resilience. Recent energy shocks have supported exporters of oil and LNG outside key chokepoints, along with infrastructure and power-system assets that help deliver reliable energy supply.

Over time, repeated supply shocks and rising electricity demand strengthen the case for electrification, domestic power, grids, storage and electrotech solutions that reduce fuel dependence. As countries move at different speeds to manage these challenges, we see greater dispersion across regions, sectors and technologies — reinforcing the case for a selective and active investment approach.

Greater value on secure supply
Total return for selected indexes, 2021-2026

Source: Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indices are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Bloomberg, as of 31 May 2026. Notes: indices used are S&P 500 energy sector for the U.S.,S&P/TSX energy sector for Canada, S&P/ASX 200 energy sector for Australia, and Alerian MLP infrastructure for energy infrastructure all in U.S. dollar terms.