BlackRock Investment Institute Videos

Our thought leaders share their insights on markets, geopolitics and economics.

Market take

Weekly video_20220621

Alex Brazier

Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take

 Camera frame

A stampede of central banks raised interest rates last week and this sent shockwaves through the market.

 Title slide: Central bank blitz fuels growth risk

A flurry of central bank moves revealed many are ignoring the crushing effects that sharply higher rates could have on economies. 

And this raises serious growth risks, and we now see the restart of the U.S economy stalling in the coming quarters.

 1: Risk of Fed overtightening policy

The Fed seems determined to raise rates sharply this year.  It’s responding to the “politics of current high inflation”: a chorus of voices calling for it to do something to get inflation down.

2: Risks to U.S. growth 

We now see serious risks to U.S. growth early next year amid mounting challenges: the energy shock, growth slowdowns elsewhere and higher rates tightening financial conditions.

The Fed is raising rates so fast that there isn’t enough time for data to react to events.  It will realize too late that it’s stalling the restart.

3: The politics of inflation  

The politics of inflation will give way to harsh economic reality.  And the Fed could reverse course next year. 

It will be too late to rescue growth.  But it will be enough to mean supply-driven inflation persists for quite some time.   

Outro frame: Here’s our Market take  

Here’s our market take…

A central bank blitz to raise rates poses serious risks of stalling the restart.   

So, we don’t think this is the time to buy the dip. 

Closing frame: Learn more: 

www.blackrock.com/weekly-commentary

Market take

Weekly video_20220621

Alex Brazier

Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take

 Camera frame

A stampede of central banks raised interest rates last week and this sent shockwaves through the market.

 Title slide: Central bank blitz fuels growth risk

A flurry of central bank moves revealed many are ignoring the crushing effects that sharply higher rates could have on economies. 

And this raises serious growth risks, and we now see the restart of the U.S economy stalling in the coming quarters.

 1: Risk of Fed overtightening policy

The Fed seems determined to raise rates sharply this year.  It’s responding to the “politics of current high inflation”: a chorus of voices calling for it to do something to get inflation down.

2: Risks to U.S. growth 

We now see serious risks to U.S. growth early next year amid mounting challenges: the energy shock, growth slowdowns elsewhere and higher rates tightening financial conditions.

The Fed is raising rates so fast that there isn’t enough time for data to react to events.  It will realize too late that it’s stalling the restart.

3: The politics of inflation  

The politics of inflation will give way to harsh economic reality.  And the Fed could reverse course next year. 

It will be too late to rescue growth.  But it will be enough to mean supply-driven inflation persists for quite some time.   

Outro frame: Here’s our Market take  

Here’s our market take…

A central bank blitz to raise rates poses serious risks of stalling the restart.   

So, we don’t think this is the time to buy the dip. 

Closing frame: Learn more: 

www.blackrock.com/weekly-commentary

BlackRock Bottom Line script : Taking stock of the energy shock

 

*** EMEA markets: “Capital at risk” at start of video

 

Speaker ID:

Alex Brazier

Deputy Head of BlackRock Investment Institute

 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused a horrific humanitarian crisis and the world has responded. Nations and governments have severed financial and business ties with Russia and are seeking to reduce their reliance on Russian oil and gas. 

 

This action presents a fresh energy supply shock to many countries that were already facing high inflation from the restart of economic activity.

 

BlackRock Bottom Line open sequence

Title: Taking stock of the energy shock

 

The impact will vary by region and it will also depend on the speed at which the West cuts its imports of Russian energy.

 

We believe the switch away from Russian energy will make inflation persistently higher while slowing growth in the short term, with Europe at higher risk of recession now. We find that the cost of Europe’s energy bill has soared to its highest levels since the 1970s following this shock, that’s twice the increase seen in the United States.1

1Source: BlackRock Investment Institute and BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2021, with data from Haver Analytics. March, 2022. Notes: chart shows the cost of oil, gas and coal consumption in the European Union and U.S. as a share of GDP. We use regional energy prices and divide by GDP in U.S. dollars. Data for 2022 are based on IMF’s latest GDP forecasts and the year-to-date average of daily commodities prices.

 

Energy security concerns are likely to make the global transition to net-zero carbon emissions more divergent. More fossil fuel output from the United States and other non-Russian sources will be needed to meet the world’s energy demands. But in Europe, we believe recent events will reinforce the transition in the long term. In particular, we see the region making a bigger push to renewables and electrification as it looks to wean itself of Russian energy.

 

The bottom line: the energy shock will further boost inflation and dampen growth in the near term while making the global transition to net zero more divergent.

 

 

Disclosures

This material is intended for information purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities, funds or strategies to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The opinions expressed are as of March 2022 and are subject to change without notice. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investing involves risks.

 

In the U.S. and Canada, this material is intended for public distribution.

 

In the UK and Non-European Economic Area (EEA) countries: this is Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL. Tel: + 44 (0)20 7743 3000. Registered in England and Wales No. 02020394. For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded. Please refer to the Financial Conduct Authority website for a list of authorised activities conducted by BlackRock.

 

In the European Economic Area (EEA): this is Issued by BlackRock (Netherlands) B.V. is authorised and regulated by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. Registered office Amstelplein 1, 1096 HA, Amsterdam, Tel: 020 – 549 5200, Tel: 31-20-549-5200. Trade Register No. 17068311 For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded.

 

In Switzerland: This document is marketing material. Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL. Tel: + 44 (0)20 7743 3000. Registered in England and Wales No. 02020394. For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded.

 

For investors in South Africa: Please be advised that BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited is an authorized financial services provider with the South African Financial Services Board, FSP No. 43288.

 

For investors in Israel: BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited is not licensed under Israel's Regulation of Investment Advice, Investment Marketing and Portfolio Management Law, 5755-1995 (the “Advice Law”), nor does it carry insurance thereunder.

 

In Latin America: this material is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice nor an offer or solicitation to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any shares of any Fund (nor shall any such shares be offered or sold to any person) in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities law of that jurisdiction. If any funds are mentioned or inferred to in this material, it is possible that some or all of the funds may not have been registered with the securities regulator of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay or any other securities regulator in any Latin American country and thus might not be publicly offered within any such country. The securities regulators of such countries have not confirmed the accuracy of any information contained herein. The provision of investment management and investment advisory services is a regulated activity in Mexico thus is subject to strict rules. For more information on the Investment Advisory Services offered by BlackRock Mexico please refer to the Investment Services Guide available at www.blackrock.com/mx

 

In Singapore, this is issued by BlackRock (Singapore) Limited (Co. registration no. 200010143N). This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

 

In Hong Kong, this material is issued by BlackRock Asset Management North Asia Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

 

In Australia, issued by BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited ABN 13 006 165 975, AFSL 230 523 (BIMAL). This material provides general information only and does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation, needs or circumstances. Before making any investment decision, you should assess whether the material is appropriate for you and obtain financial advice tailored to you having regard to your individual objectives, financial situation, needs and circumstances.

 

© 2022 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.

 

BlackRock Bottom Line script : Taking stock of the energy shock

 

*** EMEA markets: “Capital at risk” at start of video

 

Speaker ID:

Alex Brazier

Deputy Head of BlackRock Investment Institute

 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused a horrific humanitarian crisis and the world has responded. Nations and governments have severed financial and business ties with Russia and are seeking to reduce their reliance on Russian oil and gas. 

 

This action presents a fresh energy supply shock to many countries that were already facing high inflation from the restart of economic activity.

 

BlackRock Bottom Line open sequence

Title: Taking stock of the energy shock

 

The impact will vary by region and it will also depend on the speed at which the West cuts its imports of Russian energy.

 

We believe the switch away from Russian energy will make inflation persistently higher while slowing growth in the short term, with Europe at higher risk of recession now. We find that the cost of Europe’s energy bill has soared to its highest levels since the 1970s following this shock, that’s twice the increase seen in the United States.1

1Source: BlackRock Investment Institute and BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2021, with data from Haver Analytics. March, 2022. Notes: chart shows the cost of oil, gas and coal consumption in the European Union and U.S. as a share of GDP. We use regional energy prices and divide by GDP in U.S. dollars. Data for 2022 are based on IMF’s latest GDP forecasts and the year-to-date average of daily commodities prices.

 

Energy security concerns are likely to make the global transition to net-zero carbon emissions more divergent. More fossil fuel output from the United States and other non-Russian sources will be needed to meet the world’s energy demands. But in Europe, we believe recent events will reinforce the transition in the long term. In particular, we see the region making a bigger push to renewables and electrification as it looks to wean itself of Russian energy.

 

The bottom line: the energy shock will further boost inflation and dampen growth in the near term while making the global transition to net zero more divergent.

 

 

Disclosures

This material is intended for information purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities, funds or strategies to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The opinions expressed are as of March 2022 and are subject to change without notice. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investing involves risks.

 

In the U.S. and Canada, this material is intended for public distribution.

 

In the UK and Non-European Economic Area (EEA) countries: this is Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL. Tel: + 44 (0)20 7743 3000. Registered in England and Wales No. 02020394. For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded. Please refer to the Financial Conduct Authority website for a list of authorised activities conducted by BlackRock.

 

In the European Economic Area (EEA): this is Issued by BlackRock (Netherlands) B.V. is authorised and regulated by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. Registered office Amstelplein 1, 1096 HA, Amsterdam, Tel: 020 – 549 5200, Tel: 31-20-549-5200. Trade Register No. 17068311 For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded.

 

In Switzerland: This document is marketing material. Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL. Tel: + 44 (0)20 7743 3000. Registered in England and Wales No. 02020394. For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded.

 

For investors in South Africa: Please be advised that BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited is an authorized financial services provider with the South African Financial Services Board, FSP No. 43288.

 

For investors in Israel: BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited is not licensed under Israel's Regulation of Investment Advice, Investment Marketing and Portfolio Management Law, 5755-1995 (the “Advice Law”), nor does it carry insurance thereunder.

 

In Latin America: this material is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice nor an offer or solicitation to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any shares of any Fund (nor shall any such shares be offered or sold to any person) in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities law of that jurisdiction. If any funds are mentioned or inferred to in this material, it is possible that some or all of the funds may not have been registered with the securities regulator of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay or any other securities regulator in any Latin American country and thus might not be publicly offered within any such country. The securities regulators of such countries have not confirmed the accuracy of any information contained herein. The provision of investment management and investment advisory services is a regulated activity in Mexico thus is subject to strict rules. For more information on the Investment Advisory Services offered by BlackRock Mexico please refer to the Investment Services Guide available at www.blackrock.com/mx

 

In Singapore, this is issued by BlackRock (Singapore) Limited (Co. registration no. 200010143N). This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

 

In Hong Kong, this material is issued by BlackRock Asset Management North Asia Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

 

In Australia, issued by BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited ABN 13 006 165 975, AFSL 230 523 (BIMAL). This material provides general information only and does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation, needs or circumstances. Before making any investment decision, you should assess whether the material is appropriate for you and obtain financial advice tailored to you having regard to your individual objectives, financial situation, needs and circumstances.

 

© 2022 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.