Bitcoin

Four factors behind bitcoin’s recent volatility

An aerial photo of large, colorful hot spring
Dec 09, 2025|ByMatt KunkeRobert Mitchnick
Video 03:13

WHAT IS BITCOIN?

Bitcoin is the world’s most recognized and widely adopted cryptocurrency1, and many investors want to learn more. Watch to learn the basics of bitcoin, how it works and understand its significance in our world today.

03:00

We've all heard about Bitcoin. But what exactly is Bitcoin? Let's start at the beginning. Around 100,000 years ago.

 

09:21

Throughout history, we've used all kinds of objects to help make transactions and store value, from seashells to shiny metals to paper notes. That's because the value isn't just in the object itself, it's in how much we agree the object represents. So, the object can be many things, even, as it turns out, a string of digital code.

 

42:06

The internet changed everything. It connected the world, changing how we communicate, work, shop and manage finances. It also opened the door to a new kind of currency and asset. Enter Bitcoin, a digital currency not governed by banks or governments, but by its global community of users. And that provided new potential benefits.

 

01:08:18

Bitcoin exchanges happen person-to-person, anywhere in the world, in near real time and for near zero transaction costs. Saving money, time and opening financial opportunity to those without access to a banking system.

 

01:27:10

Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million bitcoins. This hard coded rule controls supply, purchasing power and helps avoid the potential misuse of printing more and more currency, which can contribute towards inflation.

 

01:44:19

All transactions take place on a digital ledger called the blockchain. It's a digital platform to move value, where everyone can see every transaction.

 

01:57:05

Bitcoin is no longer seen as the radical idea it was 15 years ago. Over 500 million people around the world now use cryptocurrency, with over 50% holding or investing in Bitcoin, making it the most popular cryptocurrency by far. Some use Bitcoin to transfer value across borders and for purchases. Some see Bitcoin as an investment given its limited supply and uniqueness relative to other financial assets. And for those in certain countries, its value goes far deeper, potentially offering greater financial autonomy by serving as an alternative to local currencies.

 

02:37:11

Bitcoin is an emerging global monetary alternative. Time will tell how far adoption will go, but next time you see a seashell or shiny metal, think about how humans’ idea of “money” has evolved throughout history.

 

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To learn more about bitcoin as part of a portfolio visit: iShares.com/bitcoin

 

DISCLOSURES:

 

The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (the “Trust”) has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus) with the SEC for the offering to which this communication relates. Before you invest, you should read the prospectus and other documents the Trust has filed with the SEC for more complete information about the issuer and this offering. You may get these documents for free by visiting www.iShares.com or EDGAR on the SEC website at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, the Trust will arrange to send you the prospectus if you request it by calling toll-free 1-800-474-2737.

 

The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is not an investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, and therefore is not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds or ETFs registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940. The Trust is not a commodity pool for purposes of the Commodity Exchange Act. Before making an investment decision, you should carefully consider the risk factors and other information included in the prospectus.

 

Investing involves a high degree of risk, including possible loss of principal. An investment in the Trust is not suitable for all investors, may be deemed speculative and is not intended as a complete investment program. An investment in Shares should be considered only by persons who can bear the risk of total loss associated with an investment in the Trust.

 

This material is provided for educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice or an investment recommendation within the meaning of federal, state or local law. You are solely responsible for evaluating and acting upon the education and information contained in this material. BlackRock will not be liable for direct or incidental loss resulting from applying any of the information obtained from these materials or from any other source mentioned. BlackRock does not render any legal, tax or accounting advice and the education and information contained in this material should not be construed as such. Please consult with a qualified professional for these types of advice.

 

Investing in digital assets involves significant risks due to their extreme price volatility and the potential for loss, theft, or compromise of private keys. The value of the shares is closely tied to acceptance, industry developments, and governance changes, making them susceptible to market sentiment. Digital assets represent a new and rapidly evolving industry, and the value of the Shares depends on their acceptance. Changes in the governance of a digital asset network may not receive sufficient support from users and miners, which may negatively affect that digital asset network’s ability to grow and respond to challenges Investing in the Trust comes with risks that could impact the Trust's share value, including large-scale sales by major investors, security threats like breaches and hacking, negative sentiment among speculators, and competition from central bank digital currencies and financial initiatives using blockchain technology. A disruption of the internet or a digital asset network would affect the ability to transfer digital assets and, consequently, would impact their value. There can be no assurance that security procedures designed to protect the Trust’s assets will actually work as designed or prove to be successful in safeguarding the Trust’s assets against all possible sources of theft, loss or damage.

 

The Trust may incur certain extraordinary, non-recurring expenses that are not assumed by the Sponsor.

 

Shares of the Trust are not deposits or other obligations of or guaranteed by BlackRock, Inc., and its affiliates, and are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other governmental agency. The sponsor of the trust is iShares Delaware Trust Sponsor LLC (the “Sponsor”). BlackRock Investments, LLC ("BRIL"), assists in the promotion of the Trust. The Sponsor and BRIL are affiliates of

BlackRock, Inc. The Sponsor is not responsible for losses incurred due to loss, theft, destruction, or compromise of the trust's bitcoin.

 

Transactions in shares of ETPs may result in brokerage commissions and will generate tax consequences.

 

©2024 BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved. iSHARES and BLACKROCK are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc., or its affiliates. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

 

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KEY TAKEAWAYS:

  • Since mid-October, cryptoassets have experienced a sharp pullback - but there’s not one discrete catalyst behind the volatility
  • In our view, a combination of factors including the Fed’s outlook, unwinding leverage, reduction of outsized positions, and unwinding optimism has all played a role
  • When looking towards what comes next, it’s important to remember bitcoin’s longer term role in a portfolio as a non-sovereign, decentralized global asset with a finite supply

TODAY’S CRYPTO MARKETS

Over the past few weeks, bitcoin and the longer tail of crypto assets have experienced a sharp pullback, materially outpacing more modest corrections seen in broader markets.

After reaching its all-time high of $126K in early October, bitcoin fell as low as $84k or ~33%.1 The recent price action cannot be attributed to a single headline event or catalyst. Instead, in our view, it reflects a confluence of loosely connected factors and evolving market structure dynamics:

Shift in Fed Outlook: Expectations for slower Fed rate cuts have pushed real yields higher. For context, in October the market was pricing in a ~30% chance of one rate cut or fewer. As of early December, markets are pricing about a 46% chance of one rate cut or fewer by the March 2026 Fed meeting.2 While bitcoin’s fundamentals are largely detached from traditional economic drivers or country-specific risks, bitcoin has historically shown sensitivity to USD real rates, similar to gold and emerging-market currencies. The latest dip, on Nov. 30, occurred during a low-liquidity holiday weekend evening in the U.S.

Unwind of Excessive Leverage: Heavy use of leveraged perpetual futures in cryptoasset trading amplified short-term speculation and appears to have precipitated a “flash crash” on Oct. 10, when an initial price drop triggered automated forced liquidation of long positions, adding substantial selling pressure and setting off a chain effect that ultimately erased over 30% of futures open interest3. Lingering aftereffects of this leverage-driven sell-off persist, contributing to an overhang in the market.

Whales Rebalancing: For a substantial cohort of long-time bitcoin holders (many with cost bases of <$1k, “Whales”), $100K represented a key psychological milestone and implicit portfolio rebalancing trigger. We observe that crossing this threshold prompted some investors with concentrated exposure begin reducing overly concentrated bitcoin positions, thereby adding incremental selling pressure to the market.

Unwind of Digital Asset Treasury Optimism: Shares of digital asset treasury companies (DATs) have sold off sharply QTD and now predominantly trade near or below the NAV of the bitcoin holdings. The large premiums that spurred a flurry of new listings earlier this year have vanished, removing a source of buying pressure and raising questions of whether some treasury companies will conduct asset sales to bring their share prices back to NAV.

Bitcoin Historical Correction and Subsequent Returns

Bitcoin performance following ≥25 % corrections in the last 10 years2

Table showing bitcoins performance following market corrections over the past 10 years

* 1Y forward period only partially complete, as of Nov. 30, 2025

Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin Spot Price and BlackRock calculations, as of Nov. 30, 2025. Measured from the date at which the drawdown first breached 25%. Length measured from peak to trough in weeks. Spot price performance does not represent actual Fund performance. For actual fund performance, please visit www.iShares.com or www.blackrock.com. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


THE PATH FORWARD

What does all of this mean for investors considering an allocation to bitcoin? While short-term direction is difficult to predict, drawdowns have historically provided attractive long-term entry points. Market corrections tend to curb excesses, with recent liquidations removing significant leverage from the crypto ecosystem, bringing speculative positioning back to more sustainable levels.

Looking ahead, we believe bitcoin’s long-term fundamental drivers appear intact – institutional adoption, regulatory maturation, and rising global concerns around sovereign debt levels and geopolitical fragmentation continue to support bitcoin’s investment case.

In our view, the path forward in 2026 is likely to be driven in large part by liquidity conditions in the U.S. and other major economies - i.e., the pace of rate cuts – and by the trajectory of Institutional and Wealth Advisory adoption, which has trended steadily upward since the U.S. bitcoin ETPs first launched in January 2024.

As always with bitcoin and crypto, a volatile journey is likely to be part of the equation, in either direction, we have seen two other drawdowns greater than 25% since the launch of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), and following each of the drawdowns was a strong recovery reaching new highs.

The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is not an investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, and therefore is not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds or ETFs registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940.

Bitcoin Performance since 20244

Since IBIT’s launch in January 2024, bitcoin has seen two other ≥25% pullbacks, each of which was followed by a recovery and subsequent rally

Chart of 2024 performance showcasing pullbacks and rallies which resulted in a 2.1x cumulative return over 23 months

Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin Spot Price and BlackRock calculations, as of Nov. 30, 2025. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) launched on January 5, 2024. Spot price performance does not reflect actual Fund performance. For actual fund performance, please visit www.ishares.com or www.blackrock.com. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


BITCOIN IN YOUR PORTFOLIO

In times of volatility, it’s important to take a step back and remember the role that bitcoin exposure can play in a portfolio. Bitcoin’s nature as a fixed supply, non-sovereign, decentralized global asset has caused some investors to consider it as an option in times of fear and around certain geopolitically disruptive events. In fact, bitcoin has played the role of a fixed supply asset in BlackRock’s model portfolios with the model portfolio managers noting their belief that bitcoin has long-term investment merit for certain investors and can potentially provide unique and additive sources of diversification to portfolios, read more here.

Robbie Mitchnick headshot

Robbie Mitchnick

Head of BlackRock’s Digital Assets Business

Matt Kunke

Digital Asset Strategist

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