- From AI, to cryptocurrency, to geopolitical fragmentation and infrastructure, themes are driving markets and changing our daily lives.
- We have yet to scratch the surface on much of AI’s potential, especially at the intersection of “compute and conflict”.
- Global infrastructure opportunities require more energy, with U.S. natural gas serving as a potential focus across “pipes and power”.
- As the thematic landscape changes- so may the ways we invest in it, including tokenized exposures.
2026 Thematic Outlook
Jan 21, 2026
Charting the themes impacting markets
Video 01:26
00:00:00,367 --> 00:00:04,237
Big themes are driving markets, and investors are paying attention.
00:00:04,237 --> 00:00:08,208
Over the past decade, U.S. thematic funds have grown more than eleven times.
00:00:08,575 --> 00:00:14,414
That's as a result of investors increasingly looking to capture the long-term trends that are shaping the global economy.
00:00:14,647 --> 00:00:22,489
Our 2026 Thematic Outlook explores the forces that we believe will matter most in the years ahead and offers potential ways for investors to take action.
00:00:22,756 --> 00:00:24,190
Let's start with AI.
00:00:24,190 --> 00:00:32,432
It's entering its next growth phase, moving beyond just basic chat prompts into more complex tasks, requiring dramatically more computing power.
00:00:32,432 --> 00:00:42,909
And that surge in demand is driving investment across data centers, energy and digital infrastructure with the potential economic benefits now materializing in company earnings beyond just the AI mega scalers.
00:00:42,909 --> 00:00:44,677
Next, defense.
00:00:44,677 --> 00:00:52,218
As global tensions continue to rise, defense is evolving—with traditional defense shifting towards space, automation, and advanced technology.
00:00:52,986 --> 00:00:54,220
And then there's infrastructure.
00:00:54,220 --> 00:01:03,963
From power grids to the energy exports and from transportation to water & agriculture, infrastructure is the global backbone that supports our day-to-day lives, and is propelling the AI revolution.
00:01:04,197 --> 00:01:06,166
And finally, tokenization.
00:01:06,166 --> 00:01:12,105
New digital pathways are emerging, opening the doors to invest in assets in entirely new ways.
00:01:12,105 --> 00:01:17,377
Together, these themes may create compelling growth opportunities for the forward-looking investor.
00:01:17,377 --> 00:01:20,246
Explore our 2026 Outlook to get started.
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
Themes continue to drive markets:
Themes are driving markets in unprecedented ways- with U.S. thematic fund AUM growing 11x over the past decade.1 Themes like crypto remain top of mind for investors with the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) remaining the fastest growing ETP in history.2
The iShares Trusts are not investment companies registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, and therefore are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds or ETFs registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940.
From AI, to cryptocurrency, to geopolitical fragmentation and infrastructure, our 2026 thematic outlook explores 10 key charts that illustrate what we’ve learned, what’s changed, along with a look ahead at what the next-order implications of these power mega forces may be.
Themes are converging in new and impactful ways across AI, digital processes and digital security or “compute & conflict”. The same can be said for infrastructure with the physical buildout and the energy behind it, as we call “pipes & power”. As we see themes continue to grow in prominence, now may be the time to revisit the role they may play in portfolios and why nuances within themes matter.
As themes play an increasingly important role in portfolios, investors may consider using an active thematic rotation strategy to dynamically shift exposure toward the most compelling themes, like the iShares U.S. Thematic Rotation Active ETF (THRO).
“Compute & Conflict” and “Pipes & Power”
The continued adoption and advancement of AI have wide-ranging implications and “compute” as we know it may be changing. It's essential to look beyond headline-grabbing AI user counts and towards depth of usage - especially as fears of AI spending may be overstated. We believe investors are looking to diversify within AI, and their attention could soon shift to areas like defense, where spending has risen amidst shifts from physical systems towards digital capabilities.3
Investors looking to access the full AI value chain may consider the iShares Future AI & Tech ETF (ARTY), or take an active approach with the iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF (BAI), which seeks to maximize total return and invest in companies across the AI tech stack. Investors interested in the theme of U.S. defense may consider the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA), or take an active global approach to companies across aerospace, defense and cybersecurity with the iShares Defense Industrials Active ETF (IDEF).
Another diversification tactic to consider is targeting AI’s infrastructure, as Infrastructure continues to grow rapidly, both within AI and beyond. Cumulative global infrastructure investment is expected to reach over $100 trillion by 2040.4
We know that this growth in infrastructure must be supported by power, and lots of it. But regional nuances will come into play here as not all countries are betting on the same power sources. Investors interested in infrastructure may take a global active approach with the iShares Infrastructure Active ETF (BILT), which seeks to maximize long-term total returns by investing in securities of infrastructure-related companies or a U.S. focused approach with the iShares U.S. Infrastructure ETF (IFRA). Investors interested in targeting U.S. power infrastructure exposure may consider the iShares U.S. Power infrastructure ETF (POWR).
The iShares Trusts are not investment companies registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, and therefore are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds or ETFs registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940. Investments in these products are speculative and involve a high degree of risk.
- Equity
Are we in a bubble? The AI boom in context
While echoes of past exuberance are hard to ignore, a closer look reveals a fundamentally different landscape—one supported by real profitability, disciplined capital allocation, and broad-based adoption that are shaping where we see opportunities ahead.
Investments
Insights
Retirement
Tools
Resources
About Us
1. Source: BlackRock GBI as of October 2025.
2. Source: Source: BlackRock GBI spanning the period of January 11th 2024 – December 31st 2025. In 2025, IBIT passed $70Bn in AUM in 341 trading days become the fastest ETF to ever hit that threshold.
3.Source: U.S. DoD Budget Request FY 2026 vs 2020.
4. Source: BlackRock using data from McKinsey, “The infrastructure moment,” 9/9/2025. Forward-looking estimates may not come to pass."
This information must be accompanied or preceded by a current iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF prospectus, which may be obtained by clicking here. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing: https://www.ishares.com/us/literature/prospectus/p-ishares-bitcoin-trust-12-31.pdf
The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is not an investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, and therefore is not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds or ETFs registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940. The Trust is not a commodity pool for purposes of the Commodity Exchange Act. Before making an investment decision, you should carefully consider the risk factors and other information included in the prospectus.
Investing involves a high degree of risk, including possible loss of principal. An investment in the Trust is not suitable for all investors, may be deemed speculative and is not intended as a complete investment program. An investment in Shares should be considered only by persons who can bear the risk of total loss associated with an investment in the Trust.
Investing in digital assets involves significant risks due to their extreme price volatility and the potential for loss, theft, or compromise of private keys. The value of the shares is closely tied to acceptance, industry developments, and governance changes, making them susceptible to market sentiment. Digital assets represent a new and rapidly evolving industry, and the value of the Shares depends on their acceptance. Changes in the governance of a digital asset network may not receive sufficient support from users and miners, which may negatively affect that digital asset network’s ability to grow and respond to challenges Investing in the Trust comes with risks that could impact the Trust's share value, including large-scale sales by major investors, security threats like breaches and hacking, negative sentiment among speculators, and competition from central bank digital currencies and financial initiatives using blockchain technology. A disruption of the internet or a digital asset network would affect the ability to transfer digital assets and, consequently, would impact their value. There can be no assurance that security procedures designed to protect the Trust’s assets will actually work as designed or prove to be successful in safeguarding the Trust’s assets against all possible sources of theft, loss or damage.
Shares of the Trust are not deposits or other obligations of or guaranteed by BlackRock, Inc., and its affiliates, and are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other governmental agency. The sponsor of the trust is iShares Delaware Trust Sponsor LLC (the “Sponsor”). BlackRock Investments, LLC ("BRIL"), assists in the promotion of the Trust. The Sponsor and BRIL are affiliates of BlackRock, Inc.
Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Fund’s prospectuses or, if available, the summary prospectuses, which may be obtained by visiting the iShares Fund and BlackRock Fund prospectus pages. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.
Investing involves risks, including possible loss of principal.
Funds that concentrate investments in specific industries, sectors, markets or asset classes may underperform or be more volatile than other industries, sectors, markets or asset classes and than the general securities market.
AI technology relies on large data sets, which can lead to inaccuracies. Companies in AI face competition, rapid obsolescence, and depend on demand from various industries. Regulatory scrutiny could limit AI development, with data collection facing closer examination and potential fines. Country-specific regulations could also impact AI and big data companies.
Technology companies may be subject to severe competition and product obsolescence.
Technologies perceived to displace older technologies or create new markets may not in fact do so. Companies that initially develop a novel technology may not be able to capitalize on the technology.
Actively managed funds do not seek to replicate the performance of a specified index, may have higher portfolio turnover, and may charge higher fees than index funds due to increased trading and research expenses. There is no guarantee that an active fund will meet its investment objective.
International investing involves risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. These risks often are heightened for investments in emerging/ developing markets or in concentrations of single countries.
The Fund's use of derivatives may reduce the Fund's returns and/or increase volatility and subject the Fund to counterparty risk, which is the risk that the other party in the transaction will not fulfill its contractual obligation. The Fund could suffer losses related to its derivative positions because of a possible lack of liquidity in the secondary market and as a result of unanticipated market movements, which losses are potentially unlimited. There can be no assurance that the Fund's hedging transactions will be effective.
Convertible securities are subject to the market and issuer risks that apply to the underlying common stock.
Securities issued in IPOs have no trading history, and information about the companies may be available for very limited periods. In addition, the prices of securities sold in IPOs may be highly volatile or may decline shortly after the IPO.
Small-capitalization companies may be less stable and more susceptible to adverse developments, and their securities may be more volatile and less liquid than larger capitalization companies.
There is no guarantee that the classification system used to determine the rotation model or strategy will achieve its intended results. The fund may engage in active and frequent trading of its portfolio securities which may result in higher transaction costs to the fund. The fund is actively managed and does not seek to replicate the performance of a specified index.
Preferred stocks are not necessarily correlated with securities markets generally. Rising interest rates may cause the value of the Fund’s investments to decline significantly. Removal of stocks from the index due to maturity, redemption, call features or conversion may cause a decrease in the yield of the index and the Fund.
Diversification and asset allocation may not protect against market risk or loss of principal.
This material represents an assessment of the market environment as of the date indicated; is subject to change; and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding the funds or any issuer or security in particular.
The strategies discussed are strictly for illustrative and educational purposes and are not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. There is no guarantee that any strategies discussed will be effective.
The information presented does not take into consideration commissions, tax implications, or other transactions costs, which may significantly affect the economic consequences of a given strategy or investment decision.
This material contains general information only and does not take into account an individual's financial circumstances. This information should not be relied upon as a primary basis for an investment decision. Rather, an assessment should be made as to whether the information is appropriate in individual circumstances and consideration should be given to talking to a financial professional before making an investment decision.
The information provided is not intended to be tax advice. Investors should be urged to consult their tax professionals or financial professionals for more information regarding their specific tax situations.
The Funds are distributed by BlackRock Investments, LLC (together with its affiliates, "BlackRock").
©2026 BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK and iSHARES are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.
GPS0126-5112829-EXP0127