Annual General Meeting (BRFI)
Annual General Meeting
On 23 February 2026, Portfolio Managers Sam Vecht and Emily Fletcher, provided an update on the Company's progress and the year ahead.
Capital at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and are not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested
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Thank
you so much, Katrina, and good afternoon.
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We are often you know,
we are a good afternoon,
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everyone,
and thank you so much for being here.
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So just to take you through a little bit
about sort of
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how we're thinking about the trust, where
the fund is positioned at the moment.
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There's really sort of three main themes
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for sort of why we think
this part of the world is interesting.
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Where we think there's opportunities
and what we like to invest in.
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You can see on the left hand
side, actually,
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where the fund is currently invested.
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So just to give a flavor of the countries.
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But really what we're looking for
is trying to find markets that we think
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are really generally
underrepresented in people's portfolios.
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So just as a reminder,
we take, the emerging markets index
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and we take out,
the seven of the large markets.
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So we take out Brazil, China, India,
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Mexico, South Africa, Korea and Taiwan.
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We don't invest there.
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And then we really invest in
anything else.
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Sort of below that.
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So any of the smaller emerging frontier
market countries would be where we invest.
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We choose that as a universe
because we think it's a part of the world
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that's really underrepresented.
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So we think if you take,
a good sample of sort of 100,000 investors
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across the UK
and would analyse their portfolios,
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I think very few of them
would have a large allocation
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in their portfolio to say, Hungary, or,
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Indonesia or the Philippines
within their portfolios.
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So we think these markets
are really underrepresented, and that's
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despite them representing a very large
percentage of the world's population.
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We think
these markets are under-researched.
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So if we look at a lot of the companies
in our portfolio,
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there are very few analysts
covering them externally.
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To us, and where there are analysts,
the vast majority of them will be
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local analysts in their local countries
who are covering them.
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Some of those analysts are excellent
in those local countries.
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But if you have a single utility company
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in your country, you may analyse it
very well, but you probably haven't seen,
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the ways in which utility companies
have gone on to either do
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well or badly globally.
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So we think there's a huge opportunity
by looking at lots of different markets,
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to really be able to, to make alpha
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from some of these companies that we think
are really under-researched still.
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And finally, we would contend that
the universe is still very undervalued.
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So cheap relative to its own history.
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Cheap relative, to other markets.
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And very much, I
think, cheap in an absolute sense as well.
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So we are investing in markets
that are underrepresented,
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under-researched and undervalued.
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You can see on the map
some of the countries
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where we're currently invested.
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So you can see it's a very broad,
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and geographically well diversified,
I think, and well spread,
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portfolio.
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Moving on then, to
what we've been doing over the past year.
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You can see quite a substantial portion
of the portfolio has gone
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into some of the smaller countries
within our universe,
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very much at the small end.
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And, for those of you
who were here in 2016,
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these might well be familiar names,
that we talked about the companies
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we liked in
some of these countries at that point.
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I know some of you were here then,
so I'm sure you remember.
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So at that point,
we had large percentage about sort of up
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to 35% of the portfolio across
seven of the smaller names.
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And these are really
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the markets at the smaller
end of the universe that we look at.
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We actually took that all the way down
to pretty much zero.
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Actually, if you look at the end of 2023,
it does show
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that there was sort of 4% left, but
the vast majority of that was in Turkey.
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And actually there we held a gold minor.
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So I think it doesn't really count.
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Probably as domestic investor,
it's more about what was happening,
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in the commodities market.
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So you can see excluding
that came all the way almost down to zero.
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And now it's back up to around
just over 30% of the portfolio.
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We haven't gone back
into all of those countries.
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We're invested then,
but we have gone back into five of them.
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And I
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think there's a bit of a common theme
across all of them.
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He's a countries
which saw inflation go up a long way.
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They saw interest rates
go up a long way down.
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During that time we also had Covid.
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So the governments ended up
quite indebted.
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They had to do an austerity program.
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Unlike the UK
or the US, where you can just print a bit
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more money, that was isn't really
the option in these smaller countries.
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So we had a bit of an austerity program
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obviously has quite an impact
on domestic consumption.
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At the same time, because of Covid,
I think households end up
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ended up quite extended
and had to have a few years again
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where they needed to see some real wage
growth
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come through to repair household
balance sheets as well.
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Having had that, we've had government
balance sheet repair, we've had household
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balance sheet repair.
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We're seeing interest rates
come down quite a lot.
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Because actually inflation, I'd say,
and pretty much all the countries
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we look at globally,
is it pretty low levels versus history.
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I'd say it's below the historic average.
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Pretty much everywhere
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we're looking at across emerging
and frontier countries at the moment.
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So those out of that
we're seeing countries cut interest rates.
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We're seeing economies
start to do better and markets
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tend to actually do
well in advance of that, really.
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Even so, start to do well even before
they see that really come through.
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And a good example of that,
I think, is Pakistan,
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where actually the market
there was up nearly 100%
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last year in calendar year 2025.
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Which is really interesting, I think
given given where that country's at.
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So I'm going to hand over to Sam
to talk through the next couple of slides.
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So with... we’re look a bit to the more broadly,
back to the point
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that Emily made, if you look at the top
left of this slide,
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it's a point that Emily,
I said alluded to earlier
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that the markets we invest in
are about 34% of the world's population.
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In terms of market cap, they are about 1%.
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And in terms of weight in global indices,
if you can just about
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make out that green line for there's
not even a block,
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there, about 0.1
percent, of global indices.
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And that's really kind of interesting.
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If one thinks about it,
that such a large proportion,
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roughly a third of the world's
population, completely ignored,
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when it comes to investment,
obviously there are smaller portion
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of global GDP,
but still a sizable portion of global GDP,
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but completely irrelevant,
in the way indices are constructed today.
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If we now move on to the top
right of this chart,
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this is a slide that we've had in
for many years.
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In our presentation, you can see
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and this surprises people
that actually the benchmark
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that, we're aware of for
our trust is less volatile.
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It moves about on a daily basis
less than the S&P,
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less than emerging markets,
less than the FTSE All-Share.
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And this is the point that people
are often surprised about
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because we're investing
in all these countries,
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whether it's Pakistan
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and Bangladesh or Kenya and others,
that would seem to be really volatile.
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But when you put them all together,
they're not very volatile
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because there's no correlation
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between these,
because when there's a crisis in Kenya
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that tells you very little about
what's going on in Chile, when there's
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some great story in Kazakhstan,
it doesn't really reflect on Vietnam.
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And this is one of the great features
of our investment trust, of our fund
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that has fairly little volatility
despite the underlying
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market, seemingly being very volatile.
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If we look at the bottom left of this
slide, again, a slide that we've had in
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for many years, Emily and myself
don't have too many new ideas, sadly,
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but this does speak to the
consistency of message, if nothing else.
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It's about the valuation,
of these markets.
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And you can see that our investment
trust trades in about
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nine times
earnings, far lower than the S&P.
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About a third of the multiple of the S&P,
about a half of the multiple
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of the FTSE All-Share.
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And obviously these countries are growing
considerably faster.
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And then if we look at the bottom right,
this is actually a slightly new,
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variation of a slide
that is an old slide, which is that
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if one thinks in dollar terms, the,
dividends of this fund
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have grown by about just under 10%
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per year, since we kicked off in 2011.
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Really reflecting the underlying earnings
growth of the companies,
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that we see,
and that we invest in on a daily basis.
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If we go on to the next slide,
this is the point
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I was alluding to a minute ago,
just about the correlation.
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And this is really quite important
if one thinks about it,
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because if one invests
in the Western world,
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when there's a problem in the US,
then all markets go down.
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We can be fairly sure that if
this afternoon the Dow was to go down 3%,
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the FTSE would be unlikely to be up
this afternoon, probably be down
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quite a bit to, and that would be true
for markets in Germany and Japan,
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tomorrow, they all move together.
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What's interesting about all markets,
is they really don't move together.
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And you can see this, we've
sort of put a correlation matrix up here,
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and you can see the extent
to which the markets
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that we invest in
are either correlated or very loosely
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correlated, are actually inversely
correlated, with, with each other.
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So for example,
if we look at Bangladesh, easy to spot
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because it begins with a B, you'll see
it's actually inversely correlated with Chile.
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So on average day when Bangladesh goes up
remarkably, Chile actually goes down.
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And you can sort of see across, this,
this chart,
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the slide, the markets that we invest in
aren't highly correlated,
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which is, really good,
when it comes to investing.
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And if we go on one more slide,
perhaps the more good news,
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which is this slide,
they weren't always looked like this,
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because we weren't
always outperform over so many periods.
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But it's kind of good to see that year
to date in 2026, early in the year.
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It's a nice, positive start to the year,
both in absolute and relative terms.
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2025 was nice and positive
and relative in absolute terms.
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In 24 and 23.
So it's not true every year.
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But if we look at the much more important
longer term time frame over one, three,
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five years and since inception,
you can see it's a pretty good story
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of absolute returns, and relative returns
for those who have been with us.
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And as I only said, it's really great
to see many people, here today
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who have been with us,
really since we kicked off, 15 years ago.
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And with that, good news,
I hand it back to Emily.
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Fantastic.
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Thanks Adam.
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We're just going to try
and give you a little bit more detail
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then of sort of how the portfolio
is positioned at the moment.
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And, I'm sorry, the slides on the screen.
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Look, I have quite small writing,
so hopefully you can see it
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on your packs as well.
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And if not, you don't have one there else
and more at the side.
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But I think,
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you know, the message from us here
really is that if you look at the pull
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the pie chart on the left,
that it's really nicely diversified,
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so you can see it spread
between a lot of different countries.
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And we really like to have
that diversification in our portfolio,
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picking up really interesting stocks and
just really different parts of the world.
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And this isn't going to be
therefore determined
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by what's happening in a single country,
a single area of politics.
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It really is going to be a lot of sort
of idiosyncratic bottom up, stock
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specific risks that are driving returns,
in the portfolio,
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as Sam talked about with that correlation
slide.
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So countries
that we like in the moment, at the moment
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you can see have come up, you can see
quite a large weight in Turkey.
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We're hoping that some of the reform
agenda we're seeing
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on the economic side really starts
to come through some really cheap stocks.
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They're trading on 2 to 3, four times p.
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We're invested in at the moment.
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You can see somewhere like Kenya,
you know, that's reentered the portfolio.
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Again, a couple of
really interesting companies there.
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It's been doing quite nicely year to date,
but from just, again, a really low
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starting point.
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One of the banks that we have
that we actually bought on 1.8 times PE,
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which
which we had to just check the numbers
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a few times
because we couldn't quite believe
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that was the valuation
when we did that one.
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But but nice to be
able to find it when you can.
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So if we move on to the next slide,
you can see position
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relative to the benchmark.
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We don't think about it
this way too much.
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But it is obviously there.
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I think the country to sort of note here
is that of Egypt at the top left.
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Again,
that's a country that we've gone back to
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in the last couple of years,
having had almost nothing there.
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We went back to it post the devaluation.
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We think it's in
quite an interesting space at the moment.
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As we're just starting to see
an increase in volumes coming through
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Suez Canal, Suez Canal volumes
go back to where they were.
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That's about 1.5% of GDP.
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So quite significant export earnings
for them.
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And the other thing
that we have represented in our portfolio
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in Egypt is, exposure
to sort of fintech and digitalisation.
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And I think some of the big technology
changes we're seeing,
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having quite a big impact there.
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So in a country where banking population
penetration is still in the 20s,
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you know, being able to reduce the cost
to serve to a banking customer
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could have some really interesting
implications. There.
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You move on to the next slide.
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You can see the top ten,
in the portfolio.
00:13:10:18 - 00:13:13:16
And again to pick out just some slightly
different names and themes.
00:13:13:16 - 00:13:16:13
If you go down the list,
there's a company there called Rassam.
00:13:16:13 - 00:13:17:08
Yeah.
00:13:17:08 - 00:13:18:26
I don't know if you'll be familiar
with that or not,
00:13:18:26 - 00:13:23:25
but it's an insurance company in Saudi
Arabia actually having, motor insurance.
00:13:23:25 - 00:13:25:22
So when you drive is compulsory
00:13:25:22 - 00:13:28:22
in Saudi Arabia,
but I think about 75% of people have it.
00:13:28:29 - 00:13:31:20
So you can see quite a lot of growth
just to catch up with
00:13:31:20 - 00:13:33:02
with where people should be.
00:13:33:02 - 00:13:34:23
That can happen there.
00:13:34:23 - 00:13:35:24
And that's quite it's
00:13:35:24 - 00:13:38:14
a leader in that space
and doing quite nicely on the back of,
00:13:38:14 - 00:13:41:27
increasing enforcement of people
just having motor insurance
00:13:41:27 - 00:13:43:29
that they should have, in that country.
00:13:45:03 - 00:13:48:09
If we move on to the next slide,
maybe a little bit more interesting,
00:13:48:09 - 00:13:51:09
it's just showing you changes
that we've made over the past year.
00:13:52:00 - 00:13:54:04
And again, you know, on the left
hand side, you can pick up
00:13:54:04 - 00:13:57:04
some of the interesting opportunities
we've moved into and see,
00:13:57:06 - 00:14:00:22
you know, that increase in weight
in, in Turkey, Egypt
00:14:00:22 - 00:14:03:23
I think has been left off the top because
that would that would certainly be there.
00:14:03:23 - 00:14:05:02
So I apologize for that.
00:14:05:02 - 00:14:08:28
But you can see increase in weight
in Turkey a little bit more in Kazakhstan,
00:14:09:05 - 00:14:12:07
Poland doing quite nicely as well
and really benefiting,
00:14:12:07 - 00:14:15:05
I think, just from outsourcing
from Western Europe to Eastern Europe,
00:14:15:05 - 00:14:17:26
just as a, a lower cost place
of doing business.
00:14:17:26 - 00:14:21:23
Again, it's something I think that's been
talked about for probably 15, 20.
00:14:21:23 - 00:14:23:25
I'm underselling that maybe 25 years,
00:14:23:25 - 00:14:26:25
but it's still very much true
and happening and coming
00:14:26:25 - 00:14:29:29
through, and leading to some really nice
growth in Poland at the moment.
00:14:32:24 - 00:14:33:20
So I'm sure there'll
00:14:33:20 - 00:14:36:01
be a few more questions on the areas
that are where we're invested,
00:14:36:01 - 00:14:37:15
and we'll be very happy
to take some in a minute.
00:14:37:15 - 00:14:40:15
But if I hand back to Sam,
then for the final slide
00:14:41:15 - 00:14:44:08
and once again, no change here,
00:14:44:08 - 00:14:47:06
a slide that's been for those people
who had the AGM last year,
00:14:47:06 - 00:14:49:23
they'll recognize this slide
because what we've been saying
00:14:49:23 - 00:14:52:02
for the last 15 years
continues to be true.
00:14:52:02 - 00:14:55:02
These are markets
with growth is at companies with growth.
00:14:55:09 - 00:14:59:01
These are companies yielding
quite significant amounts of cash
00:14:59:01 - 00:15:02:15
which
which obviously we pay to our investors.
00:15:02:28 - 00:15:04:10
They are cheap valuations.
00:15:04:10 - 00:15:07:21
These markets continue
to be a lot cheaper, as Emily said,
00:15:07:27 - 00:15:09:15
than what we see around the world.
00:15:09:15 - 00:15:12:05
And the low volatility is something
which I touched on earlier.
00:15:12:05 - 00:15:14:08
That's what the markets give to us.
00:15:14:08 - 00:15:15:27
And then we put that together
00:15:15:27 - 00:15:18:17
with our approach,
which is active management.
00:15:18:17 - 00:15:20:25
We don't need to be in
any particular country.
00:15:20:25 - 00:15:22:29
We're happy to walk away from any country
00:15:22:29 - 00:15:25:03
if we think it's going
in the wrong direction.
00:15:25:03 - 00:15:27:23
This is not a single region,
not a single country fund
00:15:27:23 - 00:15:31:24
where we'd have to speak to you positively
about the wonders of whichever country
00:15:31:24 - 00:15:35:10
it was on, an annual basis,
if we don't believe it ourselves.
00:15:35:17 - 00:15:38:14
So active management is really important
for us.
00:15:38:14 - 00:15:42:22
We focus on hard currency returns,
as I say, every year returns
00:15:42:22 - 00:15:46:23
and quotes and chanira, Kwanza or
any other currency are not relevant to us.
00:15:46:23 - 00:15:52:12
We think about dollar returns, liquidity
management, is very important for us.
00:15:52:12 - 00:15:54:22
All our stocks trade every single day.
00:15:54:22 - 00:15:59:01
No mark to make believe, no level
three assets, no pre-IPO situations,
00:15:59:09 - 00:16:03:11
no fun and games listed stocks that
anyone here with a Bloomberg terminal,
00:16:04:01 - 00:16:06:19
with a Bloomberg
terminal could value themselves
00:16:06:19 - 00:16:09:26
in about 10s and then discount management
that's very relevant this year.
00:16:09:26 - 00:16:13:29
Perhaps a bit more relevant this year
than last year as we've committed,
00:16:13:29 - 00:16:17:17
as we did in 2016, 2021 and now 2026,
00:16:17:27 - 00:16:22:12
to have, a five year,
exit opportunity for investors
00:16:22:12 - 00:16:26:20
and the Chair will reflect a bit
more on this in a few minutes,
00:16:26:20 - 00:16:27:19
but really important
00:16:27:19 - 00:16:31:26
to keep our discount tight and narrow
or even trade at a premium where possible.
00:16:31:26 - 00:16:36:05
So we continue to be really excited
about the outlook for frontier markets
00:16:36:05 - 00:16:39:10
and the specific countries and companies
we're investing in.
00:16:39:10 - 00:16:40:29
We think there's a great strategy,
00:16:40:29 - 00:16:45:02
great structure, and we're really happy
and proud to stand here for now.
00:16:45:04 - 00:16:48:05
15 AGM's and said broadly the same thing,
00:16:48:05 - 00:16:51:12
but in the same time, I've managed to make
some pretty decent returns
00:16:51:12 - 00:16:53:14
for investors. Thank you very much.
00:00:05:23 - 00:00:08:02
Thank
you so much, Katrina, and good afternoon.
00:00:08:02 - 00:00:09:22
We are often you know,
we are a good afternoon,
00:00:09:22 - 00:00:11:23
everyone,
and thank you so much for being here.
00:00:11:23 - 00:00:15:14
So just to take you through a little bit
about sort of
00:00:15:14 - 00:00:19:18
how we're thinking about the trust, where
the fund is positioned at the moment.
00:00:20:08 - 00:00:22:26
There's really sort of three main themes
00:00:22:26 - 00:00:25:26
for sort of why we think
this part of the world is interesting.
00:00:26:05 - 00:00:29:05
Where we think there's opportunities
and what we like to invest in.
00:00:29:20 - 00:00:32:11
You can see on the left hand
side, actually,
00:00:32:11 - 00:00:33:23
where the fund is currently invested.
00:00:33:23 - 00:00:36:04
So just to give a flavor of the countries.
00:00:36:04 - 00:00:39:25
But really what we're looking for
is trying to find markets that we think
00:00:39:25 - 00:00:43:02
are really generally
underrepresented in people's portfolios.
00:00:43:21 - 00:00:47:22
So just as a reminder,
we take, the emerging markets index
00:00:47:22 - 00:00:51:23
and we take out,
the seven of the large markets.
00:00:51:23 - 00:00:54:23
So we take out Brazil, China, India,
00:00:54:23 - 00:00:57:20
Mexico, South Africa, Korea and Taiwan.
00:00:57:20 - 00:00:59:09
We don't invest there.
00:00:59:09 - 00:01:01:18
And then we really invest in
anything else.
00:01:01:18 - 00:01:02:25
Sort of below that.
00:01:02:25 - 00:01:06:17
So any of the smaller emerging frontier
market countries would be where we invest.
00:01:07:12 - 00:01:10:15
We choose that as a universe
because we think it's a part of the world
00:01:10:15 - 00:01:11:25
that's really underrepresented.
00:01:11:25 - 00:01:16:20
So we think if you take,
a good sample of sort of 100,000 investors
00:01:16:20 - 00:01:19:20
across the UK
and would analyse their portfolios,
00:01:19:22 - 00:01:22:16
I think very few of them
would have a large allocation
00:01:22:16 - 00:01:25:16
in their portfolio to say, Hungary, or,
00:01:25:18 - 00:01:28:22
Indonesia or the Philippines
within their portfolios.
00:01:28:28 - 00:01:31:24
So we think these markets
are really underrepresented, and that's
00:01:31:24 - 00:01:35:06
despite them representing a very large
percentage of the world's population.
00:01:36:23 - 00:01:38:25
We think
these markets are under-researched.
00:01:38:25 - 00:01:41:22
So if we look at a lot of the companies
in our portfolio,
00:01:41:22 - 00:01:44:25
there are very few analysts
covering them externally.
00:01:44:25 - 00:01:48:17
To us, and where there are analysts,
the vast majority of them will be
00:01:48:17 - 00:01:51:17
local analysts in their local countries
who are covering them.
00:01:51:25 - 00:01:55:00
Some of those analysts are excellent
in those local countries.
00:01:55:00 - 00:01:56:28
But if you have a single utility company
00:01:56:28 - 00:02:00:28
in your country, you may analyse it
very well, but you probably haven't seen,
00:02:01:03 - 00:02:04:11
the ways in which utility companies
have gone on to either do
00:02:04:11 - 00:02:05:20
well or badly globally.
00:02:05:20 - 00:02:09:18
So we think there's a huge opportunity
by looking at lots of different markets,
00:02:09:25 - 00:02:12:05
to really be able to, to make alpha
00:02:12:05 - 00:02:15:05
from some of these companies that we think
are really under-researched still.
00:02:15:29 - 00:02:19:05
And finally, we would contend that
the universe is still very undervalued.
00:02:19:14 - 00:02:22:02
So cheap relative to its own history.
00:02:22:02 - 00:02:24:26
Cheap relative, to other markets.
00:02:26:13 - 00:02:29:13
And very much, I
think, cheap in an absolute sense as well.
00:02:29:21 - 00:02:32:28
So we are investing in markets
that are underrepresented,
00:02:32:28 - 00:02:35:28
under-researched and undervalued.
00:02:37:01 - 00:02:39:04
You can see on the map
some of the countries
00:02:39:04 - 00:02:40:20
where we're currently invested.
00:02:40:20 - 00:02:44:11
So you can see it's a very broad,
00:02:44:11 - 00:02:47:20
and geographically well diversified,
I think, and well spread,
00:02:47:22 - 00:02:50:22
portfolio.
00:02:51:06 - 00:02:53:24
Moving on then, to
what we've been doing over the past year.
00:02:53:24 - 00:02:57:20
You can see quite a substantial portion
of the portfolio has gone
00:02:57:20 - 00:03:00:20
into some of the smaller countries
within our universe,
00:03:00:27 - 00:03:02:17
very much at the small end.
00:03:02:17 - 00:03:05:17
And, for those of you
who were here in 2016,
00:03:05:17 - 00:03:08:29
these might well be familiar names,
that we talked about the companies
00:03:08:29 - 00:03:11:08
we liked in
some of these countries at that point.
00:03:11:08 - 00:03:13:29
I know some of you were here then,
so I'm sure you remember.
00:03:13:29 - 00:03:17:18
So at that point,
we had large percentage about sort of up
00:03:17:18 - 00:03:21:13
to 35% of the portfolio across
seven of the smaller names.
00:03:21:13 - 00:03:22:03
And these are really
00:03:22:03 - 00:03:25:23
the markets at the smaller
end of the universe that we look at.
00:03:26:10 - 00:03:30:07
We actually took that all the way down
to pretty much zero.
00:03:30:13 - 00:03:34:04
Actually, if you look at the end of 2023,
it does show
00:03:34:04 - 00:03:37:29
that there was sort of 4% left, but
the vast majority of that was in Turkey.
00:03:38:04 - 00:03:39:26
And actually there we held a gold minor.
00:03:39:26 - 00:03:41:24
So I think it doesn't really count.
00:03:41:24 - 00:03:45:11
Probably as domestic investor,
it's more about what was happening,
00:03:45:11 - 00:03:46:11
in the commodities market.
00:03:46:11 - 00:03:49:13
So you can see excluding
that came all the way almost down to zero.
00:03:49:21 - 00:03:52:29
And now it's back up to around
just over 30% of the portfolio.
00:03:53:12 - 00:03:55:12
We haven't gone back
into all of those countries.
00:03:55:12 - 00:03:58:14
We're invested then,
but we have gone back into five of them.
00:03:59:13 - 00:03:59:24
And I
00:03:59:24 - 00:04:02:24
think there's a bit of a common theme
across all of them.
00:04:02:29 - 00:04:05:24
He's a countries
which saw inflation go up a long way.
00:04:05:24 - 00:04:08:16
They saw interest rates
go up a long way down.
00:04:08:16 - 00:04:10:09
During that time we also had Covid.
00:04:10:09 - 00:04:12:14
So the governments ended up
quite indebted.
00:04:12:14 - 00:04:14:15
They had to do an austerity program.
00:04:14:15 - 00:04:18:00
Unlike the UK
or the US, where you can just print a bit
00:04:18:00 - 00:04:21:00
more money, that was isn't really
the option in these smaller countries.
00:04:21:05 - 00:04:23:02
So we had a bit of an austerity program
00:04:23:02 - 00:04:26:02
obviously has quite an impact
on domestic consumption.
00:04:26:02 - 00:04:29:23
At the same time, because of Covid,
I think households end up
00:04:29:27 - 00:04:32:18
ended up quite extended
and had to have a few years again
00:04:32:18 - 00:04:34:11
where they needed to see some real wage
growth
00:04:34:11 - 00:04:37:11
come through to repair household
balance sheets as well.
00:04:37:15 - 00:04:40:27
Having had that, we've had government
balance sheet repair, we've had household
00:04:40:27 - 00:04:42:00
balance sheet repair.
00:04:42:00 - 00:04:44:13
We're seeing interest rates
come down quite a lot.
00:04:44:13 - 00:04:48:05
Because actually inflation, I'd say,
and pretty much all the countries
00:04:48:05 - 00:04:51:16
we look at globally,
is it pretty low levels versus history.
00:04:51:26 - 00:04:54:02
I'd say it's below the historic average.
00:04:54:02 - 00:04:55:05
Pretty much everywhere
00:04:55:05 - 00:04:58:05
we're looking at across emerging
and frontier countries at the moment.
00:04:58:16 - 00:05:01:15
So those out of that
we're seeing countries cut interest rates.
00:05:01:15 - 00:05:04:12
We're seeing economies
start to do better and markets
00:05:04:12 - 00:05:07:19
tend to actually do
well in advance of that, really.
00:05:07:19 - 00:05:11:01
Even so, start to do well even before
they see that really come through.
00:05:11:18 - 00:05:13:20
And a good example of that,
I think, is Pakistan,
00:05:13:20 - 00:05:16:00
where actually the market
there was up nearly 100%
00:05:17:03 - 00:05:19:27
last year in calendar year 2025.
00:05:19:27 - 00:05:23:19
Which is really interesting, I think
given given where that country's at.
00:05:24:11 - 00:05:27:21
So I'm going to hand over to Sam
to talk through the next couple of slides.
00:05:29:12 - 00:05:34:07
So with... we’re look a bit to the more broadly,
back to the point
00:05:34:07 - 00:05:37:26
that Emily made, if you look at the top
left of this slide,
00:05:38:07 - 00:05:41:26
it's a point that Emily,
I said alluded to earlier
00:05:41:26 - 00:05:46:29
that the markets we invest in
are about 34% of the world's population.
00:05:47:26 - 00:05:51:09
In terms of market cap, they are about 1%.
00:05:51:25 - 00:05:55:28
And in terms of weight in global indices,
if you can just about
00:05:55:28 - 00:05:59:13
make out that green line for there's
not even a block,
00:05:59:25 - 00:06:04:01
there, about 0.1
percent, of global indices.
00:06:04:06 - 00:06:06:04
And that's really kind of interesting.
00:06:06:04 - 00:06:08:21
If one thinks about it,
that such a large proportion,
00:06:08:21 - 00:06:12:10
roughly a third of the world's
population, completely ignored,
00:06:12:15 - 00:06:15:14
when it comes to investment,
obviously there are smaller portion
00:06:15:14 - 00:06:19:03
of global GDP,
but still a sizable portion of global GDP,
00:06:19:03 - 00:06:23:29
but completely irrelevant,
in the way indices are constructed today.
00:06:24:11 - 00:06:28:00
If we now move on to the top
right of this chart,
00:06:28:04 - 00:06:30:14
this is a slide that we've had in
for many years.
00:06:30:14 - 00:06:33:07
In our presentation, you can see
00:06:33:07 - 00:06:37:16
and this surprises people
that actually the benchmark
00:06:37:16 - 00:06:42:12
that, we're aware of for
our trust is less volatile.
00:06:42:24 - 00:06:46:09
It moves about on a daily basis
less than the S&P,
00:06:46:09 - 00:06:49:09
less than emerging markets,
less than the FTSE All-Share.
00:06:49:14 - 00:06:51:05
And this is the point that people
are often surprised about
00:06:51:05 - 00:06:53:03
because we're investing
in all these countries,
00:06:53:03 - 00:06:54:03
whether it's Pakistan
00:06:54:03 - 00:06:58:10
and Bangladesh or Kenya and others,
that would seem to be really volatile.
00:06:58:10 - 00:07:01:02
But when you put them all together,
they're not very volatile
00:07:01:02 - 00:07:02:24
because there's no correlation
00:07:02:24 - 00:07:05:22
between these,
because when there's a crisis in Kenya
00:07:05:22 - 00:07:08:24
that tells you very little about
what's going on in Chile, when there's
00:07:08:24 - 00:07:13:05
some great story in Kazakhstan,
it doesn't really reflect on Vietnam.
00:07:13:19 - 00:07:18:13
And this is one of the great features
of our investment trust, of our fund
00:07:18:22 - 00:07:21:14
that has fairly little volatility
despite the underlying
00:07:21:14 - 00:07:24:18
market, seemingly being very volatile.
00:07:25:02 - 00:07:29:05
If we look at the bottom left of this
slide, again, a slide that we've had in
00:07:29:05 - 00:07:33:27
for many years, Emily and myself
don't have too many new ideas, sadly,
00:07:34:01 - 00:07:37:06
but this does speak to the
consistency of message, if nothing else.
00:07:38:03 - 00:07:41:01
It's about the valuation,
of these markets.
00:07:41:01 - 00:07:43:29
And you can see that our investment
trust trades in about
00:07:43:29 - 00:07:47:00
nine times
earnings, far lower than the S&P.
00:07:47:00 - 00:07:50:29
About a third of the multiple of the S&P,
about a half of the multiple
00:07:50:29 - 00:07:52:05
of the FTSE All-Share.
00:07:52:05 - 00:07:56:16
And obviously these countries are growing
considerably faster.
00:07:56:24 - 00:07:59:26
And then if we look at the bottom right,
this is actually a slightly new,
00:08:00:03 - 00:08:04:21
variation of a slide
that is an old slide, which is that
00:08:04:21 - 00:08:10:06
if one thinks in dollar terms, the,
dividends of this fund
00:08:10:14 - 00:08:13:06
have grown by about just under 10%
00:08:13:06 - 00:08:16:18
per year, since we kicked off in 2011.
00:08:16:19 - 00:08:20:17
Really reflecting the underlying earnings
growth of the companies,
00:08:20:17 - 00:08:24:01
that we see,
and that we invest in on a daily basis.
00:08:24:23 - 00:08:28:02
If we go on to the next slide,
this is the point
00:08:28:02 - 00:08:31:10
I was alluding to a minute ago,
just about the correlation.
00:08:31:20 - 00:08:34:23
And this is really quite important
if one thinks about it,
00:08:34:23 - 00:08:38:00
because if one invests
in the Western world,
00:08:38:00 - 00:08:40:27
when there's a problem in the US,
then all markets go down.
00:08:40:27 - 00:08:44:17
We can be fairly sure that if
this afternoon the Dow was to go down 3%,
00:08:44:25 - 00:08:48:07
the FTSE would be unlikely to be up
this afternoon, probably be down
00:08:48:07 - 00:08:52:24
quite a bit to, and that would be true
for markets in Germany and Japan,
00:08:52:24 - 00:08:54:09
tomorrow, they all move together.
00:08:54:09 - 00:08:58:03
What's interesting about all markets,
is they really don't move together.
00:08:58:18 - 00:09:02:18
And you can see this, we've
sort of put a correlation matrix up here,
00:09:02:19 - 00:09:05:12
and you can see the extent
to which the markets
00:09:05:12 - 00:09:09:03
that we invest in
are either correlated or very loosely
00:09:09:03 - 00:09:13:09
correlated, are actually inversely
correlated, with, with each other.
00:09:13:09 - 00:09:16:18
So for example,
if we look at Bangladesh, easy to spot
00:09:16:18 - 00:09:20:19
because it begins with a B, you'll see
it's actually inversely correlated with Chile.
00:09:20:26 - 00:09:25:09
So on average day when Bangladesh goes up
remarkably, Chile actually goes down.
00:09:25:15 - 00:09:29:12
And you can sort of see across, this,
this chart,
00:09:29:12 - 00:09:33:02
the slide, the markets that we invest in
aren't highly correlated,
00:09:33:15 - 00:09:37:10
which is, really good,
when it comes to investing.
00:09:37:23 - 00:09:40:23
And if we go on one more slide,
perhaps the more good news,
00:09:40:25 - 00:09:44:28
which is this slide,
they weren't always looked like this,
00:09:45:05 - 00:09:48:22
because we weren't
always outperform over so many periods.
00:09:49:00 - 00:09:54:07
But it's kind of good to see that year
to date in 2026, early in the year.
00:09:54:13 - 00:09:58:20
It's a nice, positive start to the year,
both in absolute and relative terms.
00:09:58:28 - 00:10:02:13
2025 was nice and positive
and relative in absolute terms.
00:10:02:13 - 00:10:05:20
In 24 and 23.
So it's not true every year.
00:10:05:20 - 00:10:10:12
But if we look at the much more important
longer term time frame over one, three,
00:10:10:12 - 00:10:14:26
five years and since inception,
you can see it's a pretty good story
00:10:15:01 - 00:10:19:26
of absolute returns, and relative returns
for those who have been with us.
00:10:19:26 - 00:10:24:08
And as I only said, it's really great
to see many people, here today
00:10:24:08 - 00:10:28:17
who have been with us,
really since we kicked off, 15 years ago.
00:10:28:25 - 00:10:31:11
And with that, good news,
I hand it back to Emily.
00:10:33:18 - 00:10:34:07
Fantastic.
00:10:34:07 - 00:10:35:00
Thanks Adam.
00:10:35:00 - 00:10:36:25
We're just going to try
and give you a little bit more detail
00:10:36:25 - 00:10:39:07
then of sort of how the portfolio
is positioned at the moment.
00:10:39:07 - 00:10:41:11
And, I'm sorry, the slides on the screen.
00:10:41:11 - 00:10:43:22
Look, I have quite small writing,
so hopefully you can see it
00:10:43:22 - 00:10:44:20
on your packs as well.
00:10:44:20 - 00:10:47:12
And if not, you don't have one there else
and more at the side.
00:10:47:12 - 00:10:48:07
But I think,
00:10:48:07 - 00:10:50:29
you know, the message from us here
really is that if you look at the pull
00:10:50:29 - 00:10:54:07
the pie chart on the left,
that it's really nicely diversified,
00:10:54:16 - 00:10:57:16
so you can see it spread
between a lot of different countries.
00:10:57:17 - 00:11:02:12
And we really like to have
that diversification in our portfolio,
00:11:02:14 - 00:11:06:03
picking up really interesting stocks and
just really different parts of the world.
00:11:06:29 - 00:11:09:24
And this isn't going to be
therefore determined
00:11:09:24 - 00:11:12:24
by what's happening in a single country,
a single area of politics.
00:11:12:25 - 00:11:17:08
It really is going to be a lot of sort
of idiosyncratic bottom up, stock
00:11:17:08 - 00:11:20:17
specific risks that are driving returns,
in the portfolio,
00:11:21:07 - 00:11:23:25
as Sam talked about with that correlation
slide.
00:11:23:25 - 00:11:26:06
So countries
that we like in the moment, at the moment
00:11:26:06 - 00:11:29:19
you can see have come up, you can see
quite a large weight in Turkey.
00:11:30:05 - 00:11:33:05
We're hoping that some of the reform
agenda we're seeing
00:11:33:05 - 00:11:36:14
on the economic side really starts
to come through some really cheap stocks.
00:11:36:14 - 00:11:38:20
They're trading on 2 to 3, four times p.
00:11:38:20 - 00:11:40:27
We're invested in at the moment.
00:11:40:27 - 00:11:45:05
You can see somewhere like Kenya,
you know, that's reentered the portfolio.
00:11:45:13 - 00:11:48:13
Again, a couple of
really interesting companies there.
00:11:48:19 - 00:11:52:03
It's been doing quite nicely year to date,
but from just, again, a really low
00:11:52:03 - 00:11:52:23
starting point.
00:11:52:23 - 00:11:56:04
One of the banks that we have
that we actually bought on 1.8 times PE,
00:11:56:13 - 00:11:58:11
which
which we had to just check the numbers
00:11:58:11 - 00:11:59:19
a few times
because we couldn't quite believe
00:11:59:19 - 00:12:01:19
that was the valuation
when we did that one.
00:12:01:19 - 00:12:03:23
But but nice to be
able to find it when you can.
00:12:05:15 - 00:12:08:03
So if we move on to the next slide,
you can see position
00:12:08:03 - 00:12:09:25
relative to the benchmark.
00:12:09:25 - 00:12:12:25
We don't think about it
this way too much.
00:12:13:12 - 00:12:15:13
But it is obviously there.
00:12:15:13 - 00:12:19:15
I think the country to sort of note here
is that of Egypt at the top left.
00:12:19:21 - 00:12:22:21
Again,
that's a country that we've gone back to
00:12:22:26 - 00:12:25:26
in the last couple of years,
having had almost nothing there.
00:12:26:00 - 00:12:28:04
We went back to it post the devaluation.
00:12:28:04 - 00:12:30:26
We think it's in
quite an interesting space at the moment.
00:12:30:26 - 00:12:33:23
As we're just starting to see
an increase in volumes coming through
00:12:33:23 - 00:12:37:16
Suez Canal, Suez Canal volumes
go back to where they were.
00:12:37:16 - 00:12:39:25
That's about 1.5% of GDP.
00:12:39:25 - 00:12:42:16
So quite significant export earnings
for them.
00:12:42:16 - 00:12:45:07
And the other thing
that we have represented in our portfolio
00:12:45:07 - 00:12:49:03
in Egypt is, exposure
to sort of fintech and digitalisation.
00:12:49:18 - 00:12:52:11
And I think some of the big technology
changes we're seeing,
00:12:52:11 - 00:12:54:00
having quite a big impact there.
00:12:54:00 - 00:12:58:17
So in a country where banking population
penetration is still in the 20s,
00:12:58:24 - 00:13:01:26
you know, being able to reduce the cost
to serve to a banking customer
00:13:01:27 - 00:13:03:24
could have some really interesting
implications. There.
00:13:05:22 - 00:13:06:26
You move on to the next slide.
00:13:06:26 - 00:13:09:26
You can see the top ten,
in the portfolio.
00:13:10:18 - 00:13:13:16
And again to pick out just some slightly
different names and themes.
00:13:13:16 - 00:13:16:13
If you go down the list,
there's a company there called Rassam.
00:13:16:13 - 00:13:17:08
Yeah.
00:13:17:08 - 00:13:18:26
I don't know if you'll be familiar
with that or not,
00:13:18:26 - 00:13:23:25
but it's an insurance company in Saudi
Arabia actually having, motor insurance.
00:13:23:25 - 00:13:25:22
So when you drive is compulsory
00:13:25:22 - 00:13:28:22
in Saudi Arabia,
but I think about 75% of people have it.
00:13:28:29 - 00:13:31:20
So you can see quite a lot of growth
just to catch up with
00:13:31:20 - 00:13:33:02
with where people should be.
00:13:33:02 - 00:13:34:23
That can happen there.
00:13:34:23 - 00:13:35:24
And that's quite it's
00:13:35:24 - 00:13:38:14
a leader in that space
and doing quite nicely on the back of,
00:13:38:14 - 00:13:41:27
increasing enforcement of people
just having motor insurance
00:13:41:27 - 00:13:43:29
that they should have, in that country.
00:13:45:03 - 00:13:48:09
If we move on to the next slide,
maybe a little bit more interesting,
00:13:48:09 - 00:13:51:09
it's just showing you changes
that we've made over the past year.
00:13:52:00 - 00:13:54:04
And again, you know, on the left
hand side, you can pick up
00:13:54:04 - 00:13:57:04
some of the interesting opportunities
we've moved into and see,
00:13:57:06 - 00:14:00:22
you know, that increase in weight
in, in Turkey, Egypt
00:14:00:22 - 00:14:03:23
I think has been left off the top because
that would that would certainly be there.
00:14:03:23 - 00:14:05:02
So I apologize for that.
00:14:05:02 - 00:14:08:28
But you can see increase in weight
in Turkey a little bit more in Kazakhstan,
00:14:09:05 - 00:14:12:07
Poland doing quite nicely as well
and really benefiting,
00:14:12:07 - 00:14:15:05
I think, just from outsourcing
from Western Europe to Eastern Europe,
00:14:15:05 - 00:14:17:26
just as a, a lower cost place
of doing business.
00:14:17:26 - 00:14:21:23
Again, it's something I think that's been
talked about for probably 15, 20.
00:14:21:23 - 00:14:23:25
I'm underselling that maybe 25 years,
00:14:23:25 - 00:14:26:25
but it's still very much true
and happening and coming
00:14:26:25 - 00:14:29:29
through, and leading to some really nice
growth in Poland at the moment.
00:14:32:24 - 00:14:33:20
So I'm sure there'll
00:14:33:20 - 00:14:36:01
be a few more questions on the areas
that are where we're invested,
00:14:36:01 - 00:14:37:15
and we'll be very happy
to take some in a minute.
00:14:37:15 - 00:14:40:15
But if I hand back to Sam,
then for the final slide
00:14:41:15 - 00:14:44:08
and once again, no change here,
00:14:44:08 - 00:14:47:06
a slide that's been for those people
who had the AGM last year,
00:14:47:06 - 00:14:49:23
they'll recognize this slide
because what we've been saying
00:14:49:23 - 00:14:52:02
for the last 15 years
continues to be true.
00:14:52:02 - 00:14:55:02
These are markets
with growth is at companies with growth.
00:14:55:09 - 00:14:59:01
These are companies yielding
quite significant amounts of cash
00:14:59:01 - 00:15:02:15
which
which obviously we pay to our investors.
00:15:02:28 - 00:15:04:10
They are cheap valuations.
00:15:04:10 - 00:15:07:21
These markets continue
to be a lot cheaper, as Emily said,
00:15:07:27 - 00:15:09:15
than what we see around the world.
00:15:09:15 - 00:15:12:05
And the low volatility is something
which I touched on earlier.
00:15:12:05 - 00:15:14:08
That's what the markets give to us.
00:15:14:08 - 00:15:15:27
And then we put that together
00:15:15:27 - 00:15:18:17
with our approach,
which is active management.
00:15:18:17 - 00:15:20:25
We don't need to be in
any particular country.
00:15:20:25 - 00:15:22:29
We're happy to walk away from any country
00:15:22:29 - 00:15:25:03
if we think it's going
in the wrong direction.
00:15:25:03 - 00:15:27:23
This is not a single region,
not a single country fund
00:15:27:23 - 00:15:31:24
where we'd have to speak to you positively
about the wonders of whichever country
00:15:31:24 - 00:15:35:10
it was on, an annual basis,
if we don't believe it ourselves.
00:15:35:17 - 00:15:38:14
So active management is really important
for us.
00:15:38:14 - 00:15:42:22
We focus on hard currency returns,
as I say, every year returns
00:15:42:22 - 00:15:46:23
and quotes and chanira, Kwanza or
any other currency are not relevant to us.
00:15:46:23 - 00:15:52:12
We think about dollar returns, liquidity
management, is very important for us.
00:15:52:12 - 00:15:54:22
All our stocks trade every single day.
00:15:54:22 - 00:15:59:01
No mark to make believe, no level
three assets, no pre-IPO situations,
00:15:59:09 - 00:16:03:11
no fun and games listed stocks that
anyone here with a Bloomberg terminal,
00:16:04:01 - 00:16:06:19
with a Bloomberg
terminal could value themselves
00:16:06:19 - 00:16:09:26
in about 10s and then discount management
that's very relevant this year.
00:16:09:26 - 00:16:13:29
Perhaps a bit more relevant this year
than last year as we've committed,
00:16:13:29 - 00:16:17:17
as we did in 2016, 2021 and now 2026,
00:16:17:27 - 00:16:22:12
to have, a five year,
exit opportunity for investors
00:16:22:12 - 00:16:26:20
and the Chair will reflect a bit
more on this in a few minutes,
00:16:26:20 - 00:16:27:19
but really important
00:16:27:19 - 00:16:31:26
to keep our discount tight and narrow
or even trade at a premium where possible.
00:16:31:26 - 00:16:36:05
So we continue to be really excited
about the outlook for frontier markets
00:16:36:05 - 00:16:39:10
and the specific countries and companies
we're investing in.
00:16:39:10 - 00:16:40:29
We think there's a great strategy,
00:16:40:29 - 00:16:45:02
great structure, and we're really happy
and proud to stand here for now.
00:16:45:04 - 00:16:48:05
15 AGM's and said broadly the same thing,
00:16:48:05 - 00:16:51:12
but in the same time, I've managed to make
some pretty decent returns
00:16:51:12 - 00:16:53:14
for investors. Thank you very much.
This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or financial product or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of February 2026 and may change as subsequent conditions vary.
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