Target Allocation Monthly: stock market resilience

Patience has paid dividends the past six weeks. In a market ruled by geopolitical volatility and binary outcomes – at times seemingly one headline or social media post away from lurching in either direction – investors who sold first and asked questions later missed a historically sharp rebound. The speed of that move has been striking, with the S&P 500’s 10-day rate of change reaching the 99th percentile when comparing it to S&P 500 data going back to 1950. As ever, markets have a habit of climbing the wall of worry and then sprinting once the worst fears fail to fully materialize. We have seen a rapid shift from extreme fear to an almost indiscriminate bid for upside, particularly in technology and higher-beta¹ areas, even as oil, rates, and cross-asset relationships remain unsettled. That suggests investors are increasingly willing to look through the near-term noise and refocus on a US backdrop that still looks relatively constructive, supported by solid economic data, resilient earnings trends, and favorable policy support. We are also entering the heart of earnings season, which will be important in testing whether fundamentals continue to validate the market’s recovery. Of course, none of the recent news mean the drama is over. Markets may still be one weekend headline away from a fresh bout of indigestion. Our team continues to monitor the situation closely, but for now, we see the latest rebound as yet another reminder that when markets feel uninvestable, discipline and patience tends to be an investor’s best edge.

Sources: BlackRock, Bloomberg, Strategas, as of 4/20/2026. S&P500 Index daily price returns. ¹ Beta is a measure of the tendency of securities to move with the market as a whole. A beta of 1 indicates that the security’s price will move with the market. A beta less than 1 indicates the security tends to be less volatile than the market, while a beta greater than 1 indicates the security is more volatile than the market. Views are subject to change. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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