Q2 earnings have topped estimates so far, with S&P 500 earnings growing 28% YoY, above the 21% estimate. 4 Yet, earnings strength has been broad with the median S&P company seeing 14% YoY growth. 5
AI companies grew earnings 47% YoY, representing 55% of S&P 500 earnings growth. 6 That momentum extended to hyperscalers: global cloud infrastructure revenue rose more than $43B YoY to $143B in Q2. 7
The Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, but three policymakers favored a 0.25% rate increase. We expect rates to remain unchanged in September.8
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1. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index Excluding Food and Energy. Data for June 2026 (released 7/30/2026).
2. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product. Advance Q2 2026 (released 7/30/2026).
3. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Civilian unemployment rate, Data for July 2026 (released 8/7/26).
4. Bloomberg, as of August 4th. Earnings as represented by S&P 500 Index net income. Index performance is for illustrative purposes only. Index performance does not reflect any management fees or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
5. GS, “U.S. Equities into August.” 8/7/2026.
6. Bloomberg, as of August 4, 2026. Earnings as represented by S&P 500 Index net income, weight as represented by constituent weight in S&P 500 Index. AI companies were identified using an objective holdings-based screen: S&P 500 constituents were classified as "AI" if, as of 6/30/2026, they were held in at least one of the five largest (by AUM) U.S.-listed AI-themed ETFs, selected based on stated AI-focused investment objectives/strategy. The resulting AI basket includes 51 S&P 500 companies. Non-AI represents the S&P 500 excluding those AI-classified constituents. ETF selection and constituent classification are rules-based and do not reflect BlackRock's view of any company's current or future AI revenue, business exposure, or prospects. Index performance is for illustrative purposes only. Index performance does not reflect any management fees or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
7. Synergy Research, as of August 1, 2026.
8. Federal Reserve, as of July 29, 2026.
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