Are we in a recession?

In the Know podcast
In the Know podcast /
Are we in a recession

It’s possible, but we believe no. The shorthand definition of a recession is when GDP growth is negative for two consecutive quarters. By that definition, we are technically in a recession. But recessions are declared only in hindsight, usually by the National Bureau of Economic Research — which means that even if we are in a recession, it wouldn’t be classified as such until later. Consumer spending, personal income and payroll jobs — all important indicators of the strength of the economy, still remain strong.

If you’re a long-term investor, stay the course. Bear markets feel terrible when you’re in them, but don’t last as long as you might think. However, you may want to consider harvesting losses, particularly from bonds this year. Selling at a loss could reduce your tax obligations on gains you’ve made elsewhere in your portfolio – and up to $3,000 of your income. You could then buy back into similar bonds which now may give you a higher yield. (As rates rise, bond yields tend to rise).

This episode features The News In Context with Gargi Chaudhuri, Head of iShares Investment Strategy. She answers "Are we in a recession?" (1:10). Interesting Numbers with Mark Peterson, Director of Investment Strategy and Education, walks us through how markets have historically behaved during recessions (10:02). And Carolyn Barnette, Senior Portfolio Strategist, helps us figure out "What Should I Do?" (20:07). Hosted by Dennis Lee, Market Insights Lead for US Wealth.