Market insights

Weekly market commentary

Looking through the Fed’s signals

­Market take

Weekly video_20240506

Nicholas Fawcett

Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take

Camera frame

The past few months of inflation surprises have confirmed that we’re in a fundamentally more volatile environment – creating greater uncertainty for both markets and the Fed.

Title slide: Looking through the Fed’s signals

That’s why we watch incoming economic data, not Fed policy signals, to gauge the policy path.

1: Evolving policy signals

In December, the Fed saw inflation falling toward 2% by the end of 2024, signaling a green light to cut rates this year. Markets priced in seven cuts. Yet goods and services inflation have since been hotter than expected.

The Fed now accepts rates need to stay high for longer given sticky inflation. It also pushed back against hikes. But greater uncertainty just makes it harder for both markets and policymakers to predict what’s ahead.

We see high-for-longer interest rates, a view markets now reflect.

2: Corporate earnings offer support

Markets pricing out rate cuts usually hurts stock valuations. Yet U.S. firms beating Q1 earnings forecasts by 10% has supported stocks.

Tech stocks and artificial intelligence beneficiaries have kept up their robust growth, while other sectors see recoveries as well.

Outro: Here’s our Market take

We see interest rates staying high for longer. We remain overweight U.S. stocks on a six- to 12-month tactical horizon.

We’re tactically neutral long-term bonds because yields could go up or down as markets adjust their policy expectations.

Closing frame: Read details: 

www.blackrock.com/weekly-commentary.

Data dependent

We look to incoming data to determine where the Federal Reserve will go, rather than its policy signals. Solid corporate earnings keep us overweight U.S. stocks.

Market backdrop

U.S. stocks clawed higher thanks to earnings beating expectations, even as the Fed meeting confirmed we’re in a structurally higher interest rate environment.

Week ahead

We expect the Bank of England to hold rates steady this week. Markets have pared back their expectations of rate cuts this year due to slowly falling inflation.

Q1 inflation surprises have pushed the Fed to flip on its December view and accept that interest rates will have to stay high for longer at last week’s meeting. We’re in a world shaped by structural forces and supply – creating greater uncertainty for the Fed and markets. That’s why we eye new data, not Fed signals, to gauge the policy path. We see high-for-longer rates, a view markets now reflect. We stay overweight U.S. stocks as solid corporate earnings help offset pressure from high rates.

Download full commentary (PDF)

Paragraph-2,Paragraph-3,Image-1,Paragraph-4
Paragraph-5,Advance Static Table-1,Paragraph-6,Advance Static Table-2,Paragraph-7,Advance Static Table-3,Paragraph-8,Advance Static Table-4

Moving on up
Market pricing of the fed funds rate, 2023-2024

The chart shows market pricing of the fed funds rate moving higher, reflecting the market adjusting to a high-for-longer interest rate environment.

Forward looking estimates may not come to pass. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream, May 2024. Notes: The chart shows the current fed funds policy rate and market expectations of the fed funds rate via SOFR futures pricing. The fed funds rate shown is the midpoint of the Federal Reserve’s target range.

At its December meeting, the Fed’s communications and its economic forecasts all signaled that inflation would fall toward 2% by the end of this year, meaning the central bank would be able to cut rates in 2024. Markets took that as a blessing to price in roughly seven quarter-point rate cuts, predicting the fed funds rate would fall as low as roughly 3.6% by the end of this year and 3% by 2025. See the yellow and green lines in the chart. Any forecast for inflation falling steadily toward 2% assumes that goods prices will keep sliding and that services inflation will ease materially from elevated levels. Those outcomes are highly uncertain, we believe. Instead, both goods and services inflation have been hotter than expected – a reality check for the Fed and markets alike. Market pricing of where rates will be by the end of this year and next has jumped in response to such sticky inflation.

On our part, we had expected goods deflation to pull inflation briefly toward 2%, before stubborn services inflation moved it back further above target in 2025. Our view on inflation’s destination likely holds. But the ramp-up in goods prices suggests it will be difficult to achieve even a near-term dip. The Fed is now accepting rates need to stay high for longer given sticky inflation. It also pushed back against hikes. Yet greater macro volatility makes it harder for both markets and policymakers to predict what’s ahead. That’s why we rely on new data, instead of Fed policy signals, to shape our view of the likely policy path.

Earnings keeping stocks afloat

Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine. Some 77% of S&P 500 firms reporting have beat the consensus, LSEG data show. Tech stocks and artificial intelligence beneficiaries have kept up their robust growth, while other sectors also see recoveries. Given volatile data and policy uncertainty, we think long-term U.S. Treasury yields can swing in either direction for now and stay neutral on a six- to 12-month tactical horizon. In the longer run, we think long-term yields will climb as investors demand more term premium, or compensation for the risk of holding bonds. With the U.S. Treasury boosting borrowing, we see rising debt leading to term premium’s return.

High-for-longer U.S. interest rates have implications globally, like in Japan, where the yen has slid to 34-year lows against the dollar. Suspected efforts by Japanese authorities to buy dollars may slow the slide, but the divergence between Bank of Japan and Fed policy is the source of yen weakness. Yet the European Central Bank may be able to cut rates even if the Fed keeps policy tight for longer. Europe’s inflation is cooling further toward 2% and economic activity has been weak since 2022, even with a surprise bump in Q1 GDP. The muted growth and weak earnings backdrop keeps us underweight European stocks.

Our bottom line

We see interest rates staying high for longer and keep eyeing incoming data. We remain tactically overweight U.S. stocks due to support from earnings and neutral long-term bonds given ongoing yield volatility. Professional investors can visit our Capital market assumptions page to learn more about our long-run view on developed market long-term bonds.

Market backdrop

The S&P 500 rose slightly last week and is up about 8% this year thanks to corporate earnings topping high expectations. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields dropped to around 4.50%, about 25 basis points below their 2024 high hit in late April, after U.S. payrolls undershot expectations and the Fed said its next move was unlikely to be a hike. Yet last week’s Fed meeting also confirmed we’re in a structurally higher interest rate environment.

We expect the BOE to hold rates steady this week. Markets have pared back their expectations of rate cuts this year due to slowly falling inflation. We watch UK GDP data out this week for signs growth momentum is starting to pick up from a period of stagnation. U.S. consumer sentiment data and data on China’s services sector, trade activity and domestic credit lending are also due for release.

Week ahead

The chart shows that gold is the best performing asset year-to-date among a selected group of assets, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury is the worst.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of May 2, 2024. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in U.S. dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (U.S., Germany and Italy), Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.

May 6

China Caixin services PMI

May 9

Bank of England (BOE) policy decision; China trade data

May 10

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey; UK GDP data

May 10-17

China total social financing

Read our past weekly market commentaries here.

 

Big calls

Our highest conviction views on tactical (6-12 month) and strategic (long-term) horizons, May 2024

  Reasons
Tactical  
U.S. equities Our macro view has us neutral at the benchmark level. But the AI theme and its potential to generate alpha – or above-benchmark returns – push us to be overweight overall.
Income in fixed income The income cushion bonds provide has increased across the board in a higher rate environment. We like short-term bonds and are now neutral long-term U.S. Treasuries as we see two-way risks ahead.
Geographic granularity We favor getting granular by geography and like Japan equities in DM. Within EM, we like India and Mexico as beneficiaries of mega forces even as relative valuations appear rich.
Strategic  
Private credit We think private credit is going to earn lending share as banks retreat – and at attractive returns relative to public credit risk.
Inflation-linked bonds We see inflation staying closer to 3% in the new regime on a strategic horizon.
Short- and medium-term bonds We overall prefer short-term bonds over the long term. That’s due to more uncertain and volatile inflation, heightened bond market volatility and weaker investor demand.

Note: Views are from a U.S. dollar perspective, May 2024. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security.

Tactical granular views

Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, May 2024

Legend Granular

Our approach is to first determine asset allocations based on our macro outlook – and what’s in the price. The table below reflects this. It leaves aside the opportunity for alpha, or the potential to generate above-benchmark returns. The new regime is not conducive to static exposures to broad asset classes, in our view, but it is creating more space for alpha. For example, the alpha opportunity in highly efficient DM equities markets historically has been low. That’s no longer the case, we think, thanks to greater volatility, macro uncertainty and dispersion of returns. The new regime puts a premium on insights and skill, in our view.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a U.S. dollar perspective, May 2024. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.

Euro-denominated tactical granular views

Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, May 2024

Legend Granular

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a euro perspective, May 2024. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.

On the go?

Stay informed on our latest weekly Market take. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.
podcast banner
Meet the Authors
Jean Boivin
Head – BlackRock Investment Institute
Wei Li
Global Chief Investment Strategist — BlackRock Investment Institute
David Rogal
Portfolio Manager, Global Fixed Income — BlackRock
Nicholas Fawcett
Macro Research – BlackRock Investment Institute