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3+1 Investor Series

“3 Things You Need to Know + 1 You Don’t!”
The 3+1 Investors Series is BlackRock’s weekly investor video franchise, created to start your week with insights from the voices shaping markets. Featuring the firm’s leading investors, each episode highlights three perspectives on what’s driving markets today.

BlackRock | 3+1 Series
FC Transcript 092226
Episode 121: Michael Gates

There’s actually an amazing espresso shot directly across the street from headquarters. I think I'm gonna go right after this.

Good morning, I'm Michael Gates. I run the target allocation model portfolios at BlackRock. It's the week of September 28th. Here are three things you need to know. And one you don’t.

Number one.
Despite stocks being up 13% year-to-date, by at least one important measure, stocks are actually cheaper than they were on January 1st this year. And, that is by the price-to-earnings ratio. We’ve actually seen a larger move up in earnings than the stock market price itself. The price-to-earnings ratio is actually down 14% year-to-date. By that measure it’s reassurance that things aren’t getting too far ahead of themselves.

Next Up.
We customize models for thousands of clients and one thing we see across the board is the importance of getting the AI positioning right. Now that's become more complicated this year, because the volatility of AI names has increased substantially and the weight to those stocks in the major indexes is much higher than it was at the start of the year. One of things we’re doing in models is managing the size, the positions, in AI so that we get the upside without excess volatility. It's a matter of getting positioned for AI without being over invested in the theme.

Number three.
I think there are two ways to invest in the AI theme right now that make a lot of sense. One is to invest in AI beneficiaries that are providing the compute. But the second way is to focus on AI adopters, which are firms that are employing AI to increase revenue and reduce cost. One of the measures we’re looking at: token consumption for AI has gone up 30% per month, which is compounding at a tremendous annual rate. That’s a huge increase in demand primarily coming from enterprises. For those firms, we’re seeing an increased opportunity and we’re positioning portfolios to benefit that.

And finally.
My morning routine has a number of things stacked in it. I eat 5 eggs, I drink 5 shots of espresso, and I take a cold shower. My hot take is that a double shot of espresso is a single shot…cause it comes out of the machine with two prongs, so I just count that as a single shot.

To get more 3+1 be sure to follow us on LinkedIn & YouTube. We’ll see you next week.

3+1 Episode 21: Michael Gates

Michael Gates, portfolio manager for the Target Allocation models, breaks down why stocks can be up yet cheaper on a price-to-earnings basis and how he’s managing AI exposure in model portfolios with an eye on both risk and opportunities.

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BlackRock | 3+1 Series
FC Transcript 091626
Episode 120: Rick Rieder

Can I keep my sunglasses on?
Yeah, let’s do it.

Hi, I'm Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of global fixed income at BlackRock. It’s the week of September 21st. This week, we’re taking 3+1 to Future Proof at Huntington Beach, California. Here are three things you need to know, and one you don’t.

First up.
If you go back to last year, I remember saying at Future Proof this is the best investment environment I've ever been associated with. This year, I think people are more on edge. Think about how things have changed. You know, earnings growth has been tremendous, with a big fiscal tailwind, interest rates were lower. Now there’s a bit more, “Okay I gotta think through a lot of these things. It's been pretty good. What do we do from here?” And the themes obviously AI, the debt, interest rates, and then our equities had a good run, what should I do with them? That’s where most of the conversation goes.

Number two.
I think the Fed was in a position that they had to move, given how hawkish they had been in the past. I think the biggest thing for interest rates going forward is the world’s going to try and come up with every answer to what’s driving rates higher. What's more important is actually the questions that you need to ask for your portfolio. And that is, “What do I do to take advantage of rates and where they are today?” From my perspective, you can think about where we’re going. These are yields we haven't seen in our generations. We can create 7% yields in portfolios. I've lived my entire career without being able to create 7%. We can debate why rates are where they are today. I said it’s time to stop talking and start doing. Let’s take advantage of this.

Next up.
I’ve been around this a long time, and when I'm drawn to fixed income it's getting to a boring 7. You know, the sleep at night 7. The percent of securities that get you above 6% in a good environment, meaning default levels stay low is as high as it's ever been. Now there’s a lot of tools. Use things like parts of a high yield market, use Europe, use some of the emerging markets. securitized market is still attractive. I’m now starting to buy some investment grade for the first time in a while. The big thing for us now is get seven, diversify it, and manage the interest rate exposure around it.

And finally.
I went truffle hunting in Tuscany, Italy. We had a dog, from 20 meters away, a tail would go up, he'd get excited and he’d find a truffle. My hot take? There's five essential food groups: peanut butter, bacon, eggs, escargot, and then truffles. My kids always talk about, can we ever get all five in a meal? I think we did it once, but it's pretty hard…with peanut butter.

To get more three plus one follow us on LinkedIn and YouTube. We'll see you next week.

Video Playlist

BlackRock | 3+1 Series
FC Transcript 091626
Episode 120: Rick Rieder

Can I keep my sunglasses on?
Yeah, let’s do it.

Hi, I'm Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of global fixed income at BlackRock. It’s the week of September 21st. This week, we’re taking 3+1 to Future Proof at Huntington Beach, California. Here are three things you need to know, and one you don’t.

First up.
If you go back to last year, I remember saying at Future Proof this is the best investment environment I've ever been associated with. This year, I think people are more on edge. Think about how things have changed. You know, earnings growth has been tremendous, with a big fiscal tailwind, interest rates were lower. Now there’s a bit more, “Okay I gotta think through a lot of these things. It's been pretty good. What do we do from here?” And the themes obviously AI, the debt, interest rates, and then our equities had a good run, what should I do with them? That’s where most of the conversation goes.

Number two.
I think the Fed was in a position that they had to move, given how hawkish they had been in the past. I think the biggest thing for interest rates going forward is the world’s going to try and come up with every answer to what’s driving rates higher. What's more important is actually the questions that you need to ask for your portfolio. And that is, “What do I do to take advantage of rates and where they are today?” From my perspective, you can think about where we’re going. These are yields we haven't seen in our generations. We can create 7% yields in portfolios. I've lived my entire career without being able to create 7%. We can debate why rates are where they are today. I said it’s time to stop talking and start doing. Let’s take advantage of this.

Next up.
I’ve been around this a long time, and when I'm drawn to fixed income it's getting to a boring 7. You know, the sleep at night 7. The percent of securities that get you above 6% in a good environment, meaning default levels stay low is as high as it's ever been. Now there’s a lot of tools. Use things like parts of a high yield market, use Europe, use some of the emerging markets. securitized market is still attractive. I’m now starting to buy some investment grade for the first time in a while. The big thing for us now is get seven, diversify it, and manage the interest rate exposure around it.

And finally.
I went truffle hunting in Tuscany, Italy. We had a dog, from 20 meters away, a tail would go up, he'd get excited and he’d find a truffle. My hot take? There's five essential food groups: peanut butter, bacon, eggs, escargot, and then truffles. My kids always talk about, can we ever get all five in a meal? I think we did it once, but it's pretty hard…with peanut butter.

To get more three plus one follow us on LinkedIn and YouTube. We'll see you next week.