GLOBAL WEEKLY COMMENTARY

A taming of the oil bull

Nov 20, 2017

Key points

  • We expect the recent strength in oil prices to moderate over the near term and prefer to get our energy exposure in selected equities.
  • Risk assets sold off before recovering later in the week. Japanese stocks were the laggard. U.S. consumer inflation data mostly met expectations.
  • Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s previous policy meeting are likely to further boost markets’ already high expectations of a December rate hike.

We see the recent strength in oil prices moderating over the near term. Within energy-related assets, we prefer to invest in selected equities versus oil directly and maintain our neutral stance on high yield energy debt.

Brent crude oil price and OPEC production cuts, 2016-2017

Brent crude oil price and OPEC production cuts, 2016-2017

Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Thomson Reuters, November 2017.
Notes: The green line shows Brent crude futures prices. In November 2016, OPEC members agreed to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day, and non-OPEC participants by roughly 600,000 barrels. The agreement was extended in May 2017 and assigned an expiration date of March 2018. OPEC will next meet on Nov. 30, 2017.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meets later this month, and the market is largely expecting oil production cuts to be extended, potentially through the end of 2018. Oil prices, however, look different going into this meeting than they did before the previous two OPEC meetings, as the chart above shows. Oil prices were lower and more volatile then, and cuts were aimed at rebalancing supply and demand to prevent further price declines. This time around, the market rebalancing has occurred and oil has rallied ahead of the meeting. Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, hit a 2.5-year high earlier this month. We could see limited upward price movement if OPEC proceeds as expected and downside risk to oil prices if no extension is announced.

Gauging signs of a slowdown

We’ve seen this sort of asymmetric price movement before: Prices rose in anticipation of past production cuts, only to fall or trade flat after OPEC delivered. With cuts priced in, a failure to deliver this time could be all the more painful. Some are betting oil prices will rise further over the short term: Speculative long positioning is at record highs in the futures market. Reinforcing the bullish view: improved global demand for oil just as supply has fallen. An OPEC extension of production cuts would further supply-demand rebalancing.

But we see reasons to believe price gains will moderate even with an OPEC extension. Major global oil agencies predict non-OPEC supply will rise next year, pressuring oil prices. Increased hedging activity in the futures market by U.S. shale producers may signal an intent to ramp up production, we believe. A clearing up of logistical bottlenecks caused by recent hurricanes should also boost U.S. oil exports, increasing global supply. However, heightened tensions in the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and Iran and greater-than-expected oil demand could push up prices over the near term. Longer-term challenges to oil include the rise of electric vehicles and other lower carbon methods of transport.

We prefer tech and financials in equities, but are finding more opportunities within the energy sector in the belief that companies have shifted to capex discipline – and away from a growth-at-all-cost mentality. We like global integrated oil companies. Some are improving cash flows, and the group has lagged recent price gains in exploration and production companies. We are neutral toward high yield energy bonds and prefer the exploration companies relative to service companies in this space. The former has stable cash flows whereas the latter struggles to gain pricing power.

Paragraph-3,Paragraph-4,Paragraph-5,Paragraph-6
Paragraph-2

Date:Event
Nov. 22 FOMC minutes, U.S durable goods orders; UK Autumn Budget
Nov. 23 Eurozone Markit flash services and manufacturing PMIs
Nov. 24 Japan Nikkei flash manufacturing PMI; U.S. Markit flash manufacturing PMI

The minutes from the Fed’s Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting are likely to stoke markets’ already high expectations that the central bank will raise interest rates in December. We see the Fed following up with two to three rate increases in 2018, barring any unexpected shocks to U.S. growth or inflation. Major developed markets’ Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) data are likely to provide more evidence that the global economy is experiencing a sustained economic expansion: Economists expect the indexes to come in around last month’s mid- to high-50s levels. Readings above the 50-mark signal expansion.

  • Risk assets sold off at the start of the week but most recovered. Japanese equities were the laggard. Japan’s third-quarter private consumption fell more than expected. Retail sales and industrial production data in China also missed expectations.
  • The U.S. Consumer Price Index generally rose as expected, demonstrating that inflation is modestly bouncing back from early-year weakness. The nominal U.S. bond yield curve flattened. U.S. inflation-linked bonds barely budged.
  • The U.S. House of Representatives passed its tax reform bill, while the Senate’s version advanced further toward a final vote. The fifth round of NAFTA renegotiations kicked off in Mexico.

Global snapshot

Weekly and 12-month performance of selected assets

 

EquitiesWeekYTD12 MonthsDiv. Yield
U.S. Large Caps -0.1% 15.2% 17.9% 1.9%
U.S. Small Caps 1.2% 11.2% 15.5% 1.2%
Non-U.S. World -0.3% 23.3% 27.1% 2.9%
Non-U.S. Developed -0.6% 20.9% 24.9% 3.2%
Japan -1.1% 21.1% 21.2% 2.0%
Emerging 0.7% 34.3% 37.2% 2.4%
Asia ex-Japan 0.5% 39.9% 39.8% 2.3%
BondsWeekYTD12 MonthsYield
U.S. Treasuries 0.2% 2.3% 1.8% 2.3%
U.S. TIPS 0.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3%
U.S. Investment Grade 0.3% 5.4% 5.7% 3.3%
U.S. High Yield 0.0% 6.6% 9.3% 5.8%
U.S. Municipals -0.1% 5.1% 4.9% 2.3%
Non-U.S. Developed 0.8% 9.0% 6.2% 0.8%
Emerging Market $ Bonds 0.6% 9.0% 9.9% 5.3%
CommoditiesWeekYTD12 MonthsLevel
Brent Crude Oil -1.3% 10.4% 34.9% $62.72
Gold 1.4% 12.6% 6.2% $1,292
Copper -0.1% 22.4% 23.3% $6,777
CurrenciesWeekYTD12 MonthsLevel
Euro/USD 1.1% 12.1% 11.0% 1.18
USD/Yen -1.3% -4.2% 1.8% 112.10
Pound/USD 0.1% 7.1% 6.4% 1.32

Source: Bloomberg. As of November. 17, 2017.
Notes: Weekly data through Friday. Equity and bond performance are measured in total index returns in U.S. dollars. U.S. large caps are represented by the S&P 500 Index; U.S. small caps are represented by the Russell 2000 Index; Non-U.S. world equity by the MSCI ACWI ex U.S.; non-U.S. developed equity by the MSCI EAFE Index; Japan, Emerging and Asia ex-Japan by their respective MSCI Indexes; U.S. Treasuries by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Index; U.S. TIPS by the U.S. Treasury Inflation Notes Total Return Index; U.S. investment grade by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate Index; U.S. high yield by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield 2% Issuer Capped Index; U.S. municipals by the Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index; non-U.S. developed bonds by the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate ex USD; and emerging market $ bonds by the JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index. Brent crude oil prices are in U.S. dollars per barrel, gold prices are in U.S. dollar per troy ounce and copper prices are in U.S. dollar per metric ton. The Euro/USD level is represented by U.S. dollar per euro, USD/JPY by yen per U.S. dollar and Pound/USD by U.S. dollar per pound. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Asset class views

Views from a U.S. dollar perspective over a three-month horizon

Table: Asset class views from a U.S. dollar perspective

Download now

Richard Turnill
Global Chief Investment Strategist
Richard Turnill, Managing Director, is Global Chief Investment Strategist for BlackRock, leading the Investment Strategy Function within the BlackRock ...
Isabelle Mateos y Lago
Global Macro Strategist, BlackRock Investment Institute
Isabelle Mateos y Lago, Managing Director, is BlackRock's Chief Multi-Asset Strategist. As part of the BlackRock Investment Institute (BII), she is responsible ...
Kate Moore
Chief Equity Strategist
Kate Moore, Managing Director, is Chief Equity Strategist for BlackRock and is a member of the BlackRock Investment Institute (BII). She is responsible for ...
Jeffrey Rosenberg
Chief Fixed Income Strategist
Jeffrey Rosenberg, CFA, Managing Director, is BlackRock's Chief Fixed Income Strategist and a member of the BlackRock Investment Institute. His responsibilities ...