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224. Systematic Investing: The Role of Consistent Alpha in Volatile Markets
The global investment environment is full of uncertainty — from inflation, growth dynamics, to policy shifts and geopolitical tensions. Investors are seeking clarity and ways to unlock more consistent investment outcomes during a period of unpredictable conditions. Innovations in data analytics and technology are helping investors better understand markets not just in during turbulent times, but in everyday decision making. But is AI the answer to consistent investment performance, and how can human judgment have the potential to create more resilient investment results? Enter systematic investing, that blends human insight and machine learning to pursue consistent alpha in volatile markets through disciplined processes, alternative data, and continuous innovation.
Ronald Kahn, Global Head of Systematic Investment Research at BlackRock, has played a foundational role in shaping the field of quantitative investing over the past few decades. He joins host Oscar Pulido to talk about what it means to pursue consistent alpha in today’s markets, how data and technology have evolved investors' expectations and how systematic investing continues to deliver potential in uncertain conditions.
Check out the full series covering tariffs and market volatility on The Bid: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/3iiZbbNz3eI08zXGZ4n3LI?si=TNiOrYRoSxyXVsbwsBs68Q
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systematic investing, systematic investment, consistent alpha, alpha investing, outperforming the market, investing opportunities, active manager, ETFs active ETFs
Sources: Referencing BlackRock Systematic signal library as of June 2025; Systematic Market-Aware Alpha Opportunities BlackRock, February 2023; Q2 Global Equity Outlook BlackRock, May 2025
Written disclosures in each podcast platform and each episode description:
This content is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or a solicitation. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the listener.
Reference to the names of each company mentioned in this communication is merely for explaining the investment strategy and should not be construed as investment advice or investment recommendation of those companies.
For full disclosures go to Blackrock.com/corporate/compliance/bid-disclosures
<<THEME MUSIC>>
<<TRANSCRIPT>>
Oscar Pulido: The global investment environment is full of uncertainty. Investors are seeking clarity and ways to unlock more consistent investment outcomes. During a period of unpredictable conditions, innovations in data analytics and technology are helping investors better understand markets. But is AI the answer to consistent investment performance? And how can human judgment have the potential to create more resilient and investment results?
Ron Kahn: There are these things that come up where humans have to be much more involved and humans can really add a lot, we need humans, we need machines, but this idea of cutting through the noise and figuring out how to optimally blend all these ideas together, in general, machines are really good at that.
Oscar Pulido: Welcome to The Bid where we break down what's happening in the markets and explore the forces changing the economy and finance. I'm Oscar Pulido.
Coming up on The Bid, I'm joined by Ronald Kahn, global Head of Systematic Investment Research at BlackRock. Ron has played a foundational role in shaping the field of quantitative investing over the past few decades. He'll talk about what it means to pursue consistent alpha in today's markets, how data and technology have evolved investors' expectations, how systematic investing continues to deliver potential in uncertain conditions.
Ron, thank you so much for joining us on The Bid.
Ron Kahn: It's great to be here, Oscar.
Oscar Pulido: Ron, you and I haven't spoken yet on The Bid, but we have had some of your colleagues from the systematic investing business who have joined us in the past. I'm thinking of people like Brad Bets and Jeff Shen who have, come and talked to us about how they use data to understand. Market complexity.
Of course, this is a topic that you have been tackling for a few decades. In fact, you quite literally, helped write the book on systematic, investing, many years ago. And so, it's great to talk to you about it. Looking at the current environment, all the uncertainty and the volatility that we see, how do you think about the pursuit of consistent alpha. And why is that goal so important for so many investors?
Ron Kahn: Oscar, you've actually focused on the central issue for investors generally. How do we deliver consistent, positive alpha in a world that's full of volatility and where ideas work for a while and then they stop working? The only way to do that, the only way we know how to do that is through constant innovation.
We've got to constantly be coming up with new ideas to replace the old ideas that stop working. Active management is a very competitive industry, and we find ideas that give us some edge that the market hasn't quite figured out yet, but the market always figures it out. And so, we've got to keep looking for new ideas and replace the old ideas with new ones.
That's how we try to deliver consistent alpha. and I would add, we've been doing this for 40 years now, and we've learned a lot over that time. And the way we add value these days is all through informational advantages, which I was alluding to a second ago that we try to figure out things that help drive returns, but that the market hasn't figured out yet.
That's why we use all of this data, AI, machine learning and everything, it's all to try to maintain these small edges and deliver the consistent performance.
Oscar Pulido: You mentioned, all of this data, in fact it is a lot of data. It has evolved a lot over the years as well. In fact, one of the terms I think that you and your team often use is alternative data. So, talk to us a little bit about how has the use of that data changed over time and, maybe you can give us some like real world examples of how that feeds into the investment decision making process.
Ron Kahn: So, I'll give you a couple of examples. And the first one is about understanding individual stocks. What alternative data allows us to do is to move upstream of companies having earnings conference calls or issuing earnings. So, at that point, you know exactly what the company has earned over the last quarter.
What I mean by upstream is we can keep track of exactly how many people are walking into every restaurant and every retail store every single day. Now, we don't know what stores you're walking into or what restaurants you're going into, it's aggregated data. we're not interested in what individuals are doing.
But what we found is it's not as good as knowing the actual earnings. If we see more people walking into a particular store week after week, that does do a pretty good job of predicting that earnings are going up. And so, it's alternative in that it's not how people used to think about things. It's also very, much driven by advances in technology. How are we able to do this? If you happen to be carrying a cell phone, which is true, going to be true of pretty much everyone in the world these days, your cell phone is always looking for Wi-Fi connections. That's how when you walk into a store, it registers there's another phone. I'll tell you a funny story about these types of data. We were doing a pitch for client, and we had a live demo. And we were talking about a large fast-food company. Someone in the meeting said, oh, there's one of those like two blocks from our office, what do you see there? So, we zoom in on that and we're going like, oh, that's interesting that the foot traffic has gone down a lot in the past three months. And he says. Oh, that makes total sense. There's a big construction project in front of that building, and it's not even obvious that the restaurant is still open.
So, there's an interesting granularity that we can see, but it's really when we aggregate it up, we can say, alright, at the company level, what's going on with earnings.
So as another example, focused on, macroeconomic trends, we're interested in, economic growth in countries all over the world, what we've discovered is we can use satellite imagery to measure the amount of truck activity in every particular country. That allows us to have an independent measure, so we're not dependent on the governments for those numbers. This gives us a macroeconomic view and an independent view that's useful in determining what are the more attractive countries to invest in.
Oscar Pulido: So, it's interesting when you're talking about data, it sounds like it can be used both from a macro perspective, understand the economic growth in a particular country. But you also mentioned looking at foot traffic going into a restaurant. I think you said ‘moving upstream’ which I interpreted as trying to get a little bit of insight into what earnings might be for a company going forward and using data to help inform that.
Ron, when we've talked to some of your colleagues in the past, and we talk about all of this data, we also talk about the technology, the infrastructure that is needed. Maybe talk a little bit about, what you have seen over your many decades in the industry when it comes to the technology.
Ron Kahn: Particularly, systematic investing is a technologically intensive business. I'll tell you one thing that, people don't appreciate in this world of alternative data. We still look at, earnings, conference calls and financial statements. If you look at a financial statement, you know the company they're talking about, it's listed right in the front. There's usually a ticker you can see, and so you can connect the earnings to a lot of other data. In the world of alternative data, often we might be looking at things like, product reviews for different products, we might collect product reviews about the latest iPhone. The iPhone's a simple example, we know what the company is. But there are millions of products, and so the ability to just map, here's a set of data, what company does it refer to? That's required a years’ long effort to build out all of the connections between companies, the names of their products, the types of things that people might say about them.
Another example is we generally, how do we keep track of all these data? they're really voluminous and they're not the type of data that would fit well into a spreadsheet. So, we've had to develop different structures so that we can efficiently keep track of data.
Oscar Pulido: Ron, there's some other terminology in this space as well. Often, we hear the word signals used when it comes to systematic investing. what are examples of signals, that have worked in more challenging or unprecedented periods of time and what have they revealed about the economy or perhaps about companies.
Ron Kahn: Yes, that gets at something that's very interesting to us and we've put a lot of effort into over recent years, which is How do we predict stocks or understand movements of stocks, in unprecedented periods? I'll give you two examples.
So one, if you go back to the COVID period, here we're living through a global pandemic. It's fair to say that almost nobody, almost no investor has ever lived through this before. So, on the one hand, it seems hugely impactful, and on the other hand, we have no data. we don't have people on the team who lived through the Spanish flu epidemic in 1917.
And so, what do we do? we've got so much alternative data, so one thing we did, a hypothesis that as vaccines were developed, they were rolled out in different countries at different times, and our view was that as the vaccine is rolled out, mobility will increase. People will start walking around, they'll buy more things or different things. They'll go into stores, they'll go into restaurants, we both have this hypothesis that this is connected to vaccine rollouts and at the same time we have data that tells us how mobility is changing. And so, we put that all together the economy's restarting as vaccines rolled out.
Let me give you a more recent example. There's been a lot of talk and action in the US around tariffs, and we looked at how individual companies were going to be exposed to tariffs, were they bringing materials in from other countries? Were they exporting? and the systematic infrastructure allows us to answer questions like, how would a hypothetical tariff impact every single company, and we use this to put together trade baskets, stocks that will benefit, stocks that won't be hurt, and we can overlay that on other things we do to protect ourselves when the tariffs were announced. And even now there's a lot of volatility, around tariffs. We continue to monitor all this.
Oscar Pulido: It certainly seems as if the world gets more complex, having more data is powerful. I don't know about you Ron, but in my own personal life when I have to make a decision, sometimes when I'm presented with more information, it can be a bit overwhelming. So, If I take that now to the investment decision making process, how do you manage that? How do you make sure that, with all the data at your disposal, that you cut through the noise and you focus on what really matters in order to generate that consistent alpha that we talked about at the very beginning? I.
Ron Kahn: Oscar, you're, what you're raising is a very human concern I sometimes say if you looked around a BlackRock office and You say how many people in the office can juggle three balls? And you'd probably find a number of people who could. If you ask how many people can juggle eight balls, no one there - those people are in Cirque de Soleil. And so, you very quickly go from something that humans can do to humans can't do. And in the world of signals and data, when we started out, we had five different signals - five ideas - and the humans decided how much weight to put on each of those. Nowadays, if we have a thousand signals, humans can't do this. And so, we use AI and machine learning to come up with the optimal blend of all these ideas. Machines are much better at this than humans and we have seen is that eight years out of 10, the machines will do much better than the humans.
There are these things that come up where humans have to be much more involved and humans can really add a lot, and so we want both of those things. It's like airplanes most of the time what people tell me is that the autopilot is actually better than the human pilots. But every once in a while, the plane runs into a flock of geese, and you want Sully Sullenberger in the cockpit to figure out what to do because that wasn't in the data.
We need humans, we need machines. But this idea of cutting through the noise and figuring out how to optimally blend all these ideas together in general, machines are really good at that.
Oscar Pulido: And Ron, you're talking about humans and the role that they play in the systematic investing process. I think it's fair to say that sometimes one of the, perhaps, misconceptions about this field is that it's all about algorithms and you've mentioned AI and you've mentioned machine learning, and it can feel like it is really just a lot of technology working in the background. But humans do play an important role. You started talking a little bit about this, but tell us a little bit more about where does the creativity and the human insight factor into the systematic process?
Ron Kahn: So, humans are involved in every single step, obviously. So even if you think about, the technological systems that we've built, it's all humans who built those or conceived of them and understood how to design them, how they would work. I've mentioned we have on the order of a thousand signals; we've developed these over 40 years where humans have worked on for two to three months to develop each one of those signals. It's really a multi-decade effort with a lot of human input. I gave you the examples of things we did during the pandemic, things we've done around tariff policy, there's a lot of evidence that at least the current state of the art with technology, humans plus machines will outperform humans by themselves or machines by themselves. That's the world we're living in today. And so, we need both.
Oscar Pulido: It sounds like one plus one, would equal three in that case, where you have, humans and machines making each other better. Speaking of humans for most of the investors who listen to The Bid, as they're hearing you talk, they might be thinking, well, I don't have access to all this data, all this technology, all this machine learning. So, what lessons should they take from the approach that you and your team have been implementing for many years?
Ron Kahn: At the heart of our approach is really a lot of discipline and process. All successful investing turns out to be around discipline and process. And so, I think that's something that everyone should think about. And when I think about process, in the world of BlackRock Systematic process is very quantitative. You can have a process that is just, a set of things you always do, and you want to be disciplined about following that. It doesn't have to be quantitative.
I would say couple of other things. One is our discipline process. we take risks in proportion to the potential opportunity. These things are going to be a little bit more abstract, thinking about where are the opportunities and focusing on those, we can do this over thousands of opportunities. Individual investors can still choose managers and, you can look at where do you think there are more opportunities?
Is it in equities? Is it in fixed income? Is it private credit? Is it in the US or international? So, there are things that, that, individual investors can think about. And the last thing is the insight that successful investing requires two things. We've got to have skill every time we make an investment decision, and then we've got to diversify across lots and lots of investment decisions. And so, when you look at the systematic approach to investing, it's got to have both of those things. We've got to have good investment decisions and then we've got to diversify across those decisions and that can apply to individual investors just as well.
Oscar Pulido: Ron, when I spoke to Brad Betts last year I recounted to him a quote that I have seen up on the wall with your name attributed to it, because if I'm not mistaken it's the first sentence in the book, that you wrote, which is, The art of investing...
Ron Kahn: .. Is becoming the science of investing.
Oscar Pulido: Ron, and you have taken us, down a history lesson of the science behind, systematic investing and put it in some real-world examples of how it can benefit our investors, we appreciate you doing that, with us here and for joining us on The Bid.
Ron Kahn: Great. Thank you, Oscar. It's great to be here.
Oscar Pulido: Thanks for listening to this episode of The Bid. Next week we turn our focus to retirement savings and what new legislation means for your retirement account. Subscribe to The Bid and don't miss the episode.
<<THEME MUSIC>>
Spoken disclosures at end of each episode:
This content is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or a solicitation. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the listener.
For full disclosures go to Blackrock.com/corporate/compliance/bid-disclosures
MKTGSH0625U/M-4580355
The global investment environment is full of uncertainty. Investors are seeking clarity and ways to unlock more consistent investment outcomes during a period of unpredictable conditions. But is AI the answer to consistent investment performance and how can human judgment have the potential to create more resilient investment results?
Global markets have experienced extraordinary volatility in response to the U.S. tariff pause, a reflection of the uncertainty surrounding the economic and policy outlook. So how can investors adapt when the familiar economic rulebook is thrown out?
210. Thematic Investing: Finding tomorrow’s themes today
Episode Description:
Thematic investing is gaining traction in today's investing landscape, but what exactly is thematic investing and how can investors take advantage of this new trend? Jeff Shen, co-head of systematic Active Equity at BlackRock, joins Oscar to help us understand the current themes driving investment opportunities, how his team identifies and evaluates emerging themes and the role of technology in shaping the future of investing. We'll also discuss the risks associated with thematic investing and key takeaways for investors looking to capitalize on these trends.
Written disclosures in each podcast platform and each episode description:
This content is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or a solicitation. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the listener.
Reference to the names of each company mentioned in this communication is merely for explaining the investment strategy and should not be construed as investment advice or investment recommendation of those companies.
For full disclosures go to Blackrock.com/corporate/compliance/bid-disclosures
<<THEME MUSIC>>
<<TRANSCRIPT>>
Oscar Pulido: Thematic investing is gaining traction in today's investing landscape, but what exactly is thematic investing and how can investors take advantage of this new trend?
Jeff Shen: It is really a creative way of thinking about investment. You can divide the stocks through country lens, through industry or sector, lens and theme; is a way to think about, how to look at the world a bit differently.
Oscar Pulido: Unlike traditional investment strategies that may focus on sectors or regions, thematic investing looks at broader transformative forces, such as technological advancements, demographic shifts, and environmental changes.
Welcome to The Bid where we break down what's happening in the markets and explore the forces changing the economy and finance. I'm Oscar Pulido.
Here to help me understand this investing trend is Jeff Shen, co-head of systematic Active Equity at BlackRock. He'll help us understand the current themes, driving investment opportunities, how his team identifies and evaluates emerging themes and the role of technology in shaping the future of investing. We'll also discuss the risks associated with thematic investing and key takeaways for investors looking to capitalize on these trends.
Jeff, thank you so much for joining us on The Bid.
Jeff Shen: Thank you so much. It's great to be here, Oscar.
Oscar Pulido: And welcome back. we had you, on the bid back in 2023 and you gave us this fantastic history of AI, or artificial intelligence. We learned a lot about how it's evolved over many decades. And, not surprisingly, AI has continued to be a topic that we've covered on the podcast from many different, lenses.
So, one of the lenses in which we've covered it is how it is an investible theme that investors can take advantage of, and we want to talk about thematic investing. What does that term mean to you? And how does that differ from traditional investment strategies?
Jeff Shen: That's a very good question. I would say that when I think about theme investment, it is really interesting in the sense that it's a creative way of thinking about investment. Where all of us are very much familiar with 5,000 global investment universe the global equity market. You can divide the stocks through country lens, through industry or sector, lens and theme; is a way to think about how to look at the world a bit differently. You talked about artificial intelligence, now there's a supply chain aspect of the artificial intelligence, power supply, chips, and computing stack. Then there's also the demand side of the AI food chain, if you will. Think about how the enterprises and also consumers going to be using AI. So, when you think about this AI theme, you realize that it doesn't really fit into the country or sector or industry definition very neatly, and it kind of cuts across that. So that makes it an interesting, very creative way of thinking about investment.
And another aspect that makes theme investment also interesting, exciting, but also potentially difficult is that there's also aspect of timing. A theme can come in and out of favor. There could be an emerging theme that nobody's thinking about, but it becomes much more dominant. There could be a theme that's being overpopulated, overhyped and therefore there should be quite a bit of caution.
So, I think there is a bit of a life cycle of a theme that makes also theme investment quite different from the traditional investment. So, I'll say that identifying the theme and also timing the theme, could potentially be both, challenges, but also opportunities.
Oscar Pulido: And what you're describing is very similar to when we've spoken to Jay Jacobs about this topic where he talks about themes. There are multiple ways in which to invest in a theme. There are second order effects across sectors and industries, and there's a lot that has to be taken into consideration and you can be a bit more dynamic when you're investing through a thematic lens than maybe a strict sector or industry lens.
Jeff, when you look at the macroeconomic landscape and the markets, whether it's today or recent past, can you share some examples of current themes that help bring thematic investing to life?
Jeff Shen: Absolutely. You know, we were talking about artificial intelligence. This is certainly a long-term secular theme. That has certainly a life cycle of its own. But I'm also thinking that there are also a lot of cross-sectional thematic implications. There are going to be businesses that are actually AI proof, if you will, and there are going to be businesses that are actually going to be deeply impacted by the development of generative ai.
So, there's going to be a bit of a long, short aspect of it that certainly is a big area of focus. I think there's also, when you think about the development of GLP-1 drug, the weight loss drug that's actually quite popular, both in the US and also around the globe. There are certainly implications for fast food for producers. There's also implications for snack producers by taking some of these drugs that maybe the appetite for fast food or unhealthy snack or go down. So that could have a short-term and also long-term implications. And, clearly given, some of the news that's been coming up in terms of President Trump's new policy and executive orders.
There are also many interesting themes that actually come out of that. Deregulation, immigration, geopolitics, and also in particular tariffs. So, I'll say that theme investment is certainly all encompassing, and I think there are many interesting themes as we speak right now.
Oscar Pulido: It sounds identifying themes is a full-time job and Jeff, you're part of a systematic team of analysts and investors. How do you go about, evaluating themes that are, really interesting to evaluate? And maybe you can also start with a brief reminder of what does it mean to be a systematic investor?
Jeff Shen: Systematic investment has been around for a long time, and our team has also been around for about 40 years. I've only been with the team for 20 years but I think the way to think about systematic investment is that we use a lot of data. A lot of algorithms and technology to eventually invest in equity or fixed income across many different asset classes. Humans are very much in the process, but machine plays a pretty significant role. And when you think about artificial intelligence or machine learning, these are certainly the latest techniques to help us make this systematic investment decision.
Now come back to your earlier part of the question in terms of a theme. Identification. I think this is also the place where it's quite interesting. I think there's certainly the creative part in terms of human input. what are the interesting themes or what are the interesting topics people talk about?
Now, I like to say that we like to hire PhDs who don't like to read. So there's a bit of a sense of using machines to read a lot of these, texts, whether it's broker reports, conference call transcripts, financial news, anything that could be helpful for us to think about a theme idea and the large language model clearly today is extraordinary powerful, but we have a long history of using machines, using natural language processing, to help our decision making.
So identifying themes today is certainly prompting the large language model to help us to think about how we can come up with additional insights and additional basket. And the benefit of using the machine to do some of this work is that you get a lot more themes. I understand there are many mega themes out there, but at the same time, there are also some micro theme today that could become a mega theme in six months, in 12 months. So, I would say that's a theme. Investment powered by technology is really a game of diversification, and it's a game of identifying many topics and many themes.
Oscar Pulido: And it sounds like themes could have, in some cases a longer-term time horizon of investability, but when you said micro themes. Perhaps that could also mean that it's a shorter-term theme, but one still worth identifying and investing in. And Jeff, you talked about technology, but I'd like to ask you a bit more about that 'cause, we've talked about things like gen AI and large language models, and there's just so much innovation in this space. And talk more about the role that technology plays in thematic investing and again, that mix of man and machine that, that you alluded to.
Jeff Shen: Absolutely. I would say that technology for us is certainly central in terms of, advancing the potential ability to deliver alpha or out performance for our clients. And from that perspective, I talk a little bit about how large language model and AI can help us identify the theme.
At the same time, timing the theme is also very important. Oscar, you were just talking about, some of the theme may be transitory, some of them may long term, and to think about the timing aspect of it. The machine and technology can help us also quite a bit in terms of positioning.
Is this a particular position or particular theme becoming very crowded? When you think about all the flows, hedge fund, mutual fund, ETF flows out there that can potentially impact the ebbs and flows into its positioning of a particular theme. They're also interesting to think about market attention on a particular theme. A lot of people talking about it, is this a headline grabbing versus not too many people talking about it? Social media, alongside with financial news, give us a pretty good read on the sentiment of the market. So, these are the tools that we are using, not only to identify the theme, but also can time the theme now.
Last, but not the least, is also to think about once you have a theme view, you think it's a good time to invest in a particular theme. Now, how do you implement that particular theme view? Now, implementation is slightly boring, I'll say at the same time, extraordinarily important that can makes a difference between winning versus losing. So we take the implementation part, identifying the basket, really to think deeply about one single stock could potentially be exposed to multiple themes. How do you think about this kind of a multi-variate analysis, is actually all, quite important. Risk modeling comes into place, transaction costs come into place. So, the implementation, even though this is not the most exciting topic, in theme investment per se, but in our mind is extraordinarily important.
Oscar Pulido: It's clear to me that just thinking back over, the history of markets and we've talked about markets through the lens of asset classes, stocks and bonds and sectors like energy or technology. But this lens of investing through themes has become more prevalent in recent periods.
And it sounds like there's a lot of innovation going on in this space that you and your team are part of. Jeff, notwithstanding all the exciting things that you've talked about, the opportunities in thematic investing and how you can leverage technology, what are some of the risks that investors should also be aware of when we're talking about thematic investing?
Jeff Shen: There's definitely opportunities, there are also plenty of challenges. I'll say that I talked about timing the theme to be quite difficult. I think theme tends to be a bit trend following, if you will. There is something that maybe a few people thought leaders are starting to talk about it and then there'll be more followers.
Maybe 10 years ago, not too many people were talking about AI. Fast forward today, everybody's talking about AI, so I think there's certainly this kind of a trend following aspect of it, and I think one of the things that we really need to watch out for is what I call is late momentum trait. So everybody's already on it, and you get on to the last, person on the bus and the bus is going to veer off the course, I think that you better watch out. So I think that's one key risk and challenge.
I think the second part is also a lot of investors are also thinking about is where do I take money from if I were to invest in themes? How do I benchmark this if I'm investing in a global equity market universe or a US equity market universe, do I take it out of MSCI world? Do I take it out of my S&P500 exposure? And if so, would the theme investment while in itself can be interesting, exciting, but would it really outperform MSCI World or the S&P500, over short-term or long-term?
So I think benchmarking, is also quite important. And the last but not least is implementation. So implementation is clearly a big challenge. You can have a great idea, but when it comes down to portfolio construction, putting the investment into work, I think there are many details that you've got to get it right. So that's also another challenge.
Oscar Pulido: So just identifying the theme, what is that, and what are the companies to own implementing that theme, you mentioned that's an important piece of the puzzle as well. Timing, not only when to get into the theme, but also when to get out and has it run its course. And then you also mentioned, sourcing, which is if you're invested in the market and you want to invest in themes. What am I selling in order to invest in the theme?
Jeff, what takeaways should investors have for those who are interested in incorporating more thematic investing into their portfolios? What should they be considering and what should they be looking ahead to in terms of trends?
Jeff Shen: Yeah, I think first and foremost, theme investment is here to stay. I think it's an extraordinary, exciting way of thinking about the world. Yeah. If anything, it's also a creative way of thinking about investment. So, I think, this is maybe a little bit of my liberal arts roots come through that I think is actually quite important to think about this as a creative way of thinking about investment.
And so that being said, I think it's also very important to think about how do we identify theme through this kind of a new technology. It turned out to be that I think rather than concentrate on the themes, I think there is a lot of room if you use the right technology to potentially broaden the potential them investment.
So I think there's a potential diversification for them investment. And the second part of them investment, I think is quite important, is that knowing there is a bit of a trending aspect of them investment, knowing there's a danger of late momentum trade, I think is very important.
Time these traits, very carefully. a particular economic theme can. Be very much right over the long run, but at the same time, the timing of it is quite important. The last, but not the least, is that implementing it, with a sense of, perfection, if you will. This is actually, this is not a place to be loose.
This is a place that you want to be very tight in implementation. And I think if you get, some of these things right, I think you're going to have the creative part but also get the potential strong investment results from this type of way of investment.
Oscar Pulido: We've definitely talked about this is a new market regime. You need to be more dynamic, and you need to be a little bit more granular in how you approach the market. So it sounds thematic investing helps you do that. Jeff, one of the themes of having you on the podcast is we learn a lot. we've learned a lot about AI and we've learned a lot about how to look through, look to the market through a different lens. So thank you for educating us on that, and thank you for doing it here on The Bid.
Jeff Shen: Thank you so much for having me. Great to be here.
Oscar Pulido: Thanks for listening to this episode of the bid. Subscribe to the bid wherever you get your podcasts.
<<THEME MUSIC>>
Spoken disclosures at end of each episode:
This content is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or a solicitation. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the listener.
For full disclosures go to Blackrock.com/corporate/compliance/bid-disclosures
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Thematic investing is gaining traction in today’s investing landscape, but what exactly is thematic investing, and how can investors take advantage of this new trend?
The Bid - 209. Why Are Bond Yields Rising As Rates Are Cut?
Episode Description:
Sharp moves in bond yields have been a key area of focus in markets to start the year. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are over 1% higher September 2024 — a historically rare occurrence in both the direction and magnitude of moves. So, what’s driving this phenomenon and how is it reshaping the investment playbook compared to previous cycles? Jeff Rosenberg, Senior Fixed Income Portfolio Manager within the BlackRock Systematic business, will share his perspective on the different dynamics impacting bond yields and how his team is navigating this unique environment.
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Statement based on the ACM Model of estimated term premium dating back to the 1960s; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, referencing the US deficit as a percentage of GDP. Data accessed January 2025
Written disclosures in each podcast platform and each episode description:
This content is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or a solicitation. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the listener.
Reference to the names of each company mentioned in this communication is merely for explaining the investment strategy and should not be construed as investment advice or investment recommendation of those companies.
For full disclosures go to Blackrock.com/corporate/compliance/bid-disclosures
<<THEME MUSIC>>
<<TRANSCRIPT>>
Oscar Pulido: Welcome to the bid where we break down what's happening in the markets and explore the forces changing the economy and finance. I'm Oscar Pulido.
Sharp moves in bond yields have been a key area of focus in markets to start the year. yields on 10-year treasuries are over 1% higher than they were in September 2024. Despite the fact that the Fed has been cutting interest rates. This is a historically rare occurrence in both the direction and magnitude of moves. So, what's driving this phenomenon and how is it reshaping the investment playbook compared to previous cycles?
Here to help answer these questions is Jeffrey Rosenberg, senior fixed income portfolio manager within the BlackRock systematic business. Jeff will share his perspective on the different dynamics impacting bond yields. How his team is navigating this unique environment.
Jeff, thank you so much for joining us on The Bid.
Jeff Rosenberg: Great to be here. Thanks for having me.
Oscar Pulido: So, Jeff, 2025 has, kicked off. And we're here to talk about the bond markets and interest rates and for anybody who follows markets, these are important things to look at.
I'm thinking back to a discussion that I had with Jean Boivin, who's the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, and we were talking about the outlook and he said, we are in a period of time where the old playbook doesn't apply anymore. We're in a new regime. So, talk to me a little bit about what's going on in the bond market, what's going on with bond yields, and why is this so atypical from a historical context?
Jeff Rosenberg: Let's talk about one of the most surprising things that happened in the bond market last year, and that was that the bond overall performance didn't follow the direction of interest rates that was being set by the Fed. You had a decoupling between longer term interest rates, longer maturity, interest rates, and the shorter maturity interest rates that the Fed sets, that's typically not what you expect. And it was surprising to investors because a lot of investor expectations for bond market performance are set around what is the Fed's outlook of the Fed's policy going to be.
And last year, it didn't work out. It's not the first time that had happened. I had written about this in my outlook last year, called it the potential for a new conundrum.The old conundrum was something that happened way back in the Greenspan era where long-term rates were going down while the Fed was raising rates. And we saw a little bit of that atypical behavior, but in the opposite direction.
What you saw was Powell, the Fed Chairman, the FOMC, they were cutting interest rates last year and longer-term interest rates went up completely offsetting in direction, the movement that you saw in the short term. And there are a lot of reasons for that, But that was really the atypical behavior that Jean's talking about, and it carries over into the outlook for 2025. The reasons for that atypical behavior haven't gone away. They're still with us, and so when we look forward, we have to be thinking about them when we're thinking about the fixed income interest rate outlook for 2025.
Oscar Pulido: And you mentioned a couple names Greenspan, that's Alan Greenspan, who was the head of the Federal Reserve back in the 1990s. And then you mentioned, Jay Powell, who's the current Fed chair and the Fed can control short-term interest rates, but your point is that they can't necessarily control long-term interest rates. Those are going to do what they do, and the way in which short-term and long-term rates behaved was atypical use your word.
Jeff Rosenberg: That's right. And usually they'll move in the same direction, but this time you had short term interest rates going down, long-term interest rates going up. So like when they're moving in opposite directions, that’s pretty atypical.
Oscar Pulido: And it sounds like, that's why we're in a different regime and the playbook is changing. So, what is it in the economic data that you are seeing that tells you where you think the path of interest rates are? What is the economic data telling you?
Jeff Rosenberg: So, what's the big issue? And I think everyone listening to this understands that the changes in the economy that occurred after Covid was this incredible shock to inflation. So, if you go back to the pre covid environment, it was an environment where inflation was really something people didn't worry so much about. The Federal Reserve beginning in the 1980s, through Greenspan and subsequent chairmen were very successful in reigning in not just inflation, the level of inflation, but also inflation volatility, the uncertainty, how much it moved around so that people just stopped focusing on it.
And then in 2020, the big shock was Covid. And then two great policy responses. So the impact of federal government spending- we call that fiscal policy- and the impact of monetary policy- that's what the Federal Reserve controls in terms of setting of interest rates and other factors that they control, combined to really unleash, a lot of growth, but we had a lot of growth where there was still constraints on the supply side, the ability to produce goods. Remember the constraints in buying things, the imports, the shipping constraints, all of that was pushing down on supply while at the same time as we restarted our economy, we had this huge shift upward in demand.
Well, that disconnect between demand and supply, that creates inflation and prices went up a lot. We certainly know this. Now, the price changes have certainly come down, the price level hasn't come down, but the price changes have come down. But they haven't come down to that pre covid level environment.
So, when we measure inflation, we're going to measure it on annual percentage changes. Pre covid, that was less than 2%. Peak covid, you're talking about 10% type increases. Now, we're settling back down, but we're settling above this 2% target that people like the policymakers at the Federal Reserve like to target.
Because that inflation has still not come down to that 2% level, you're seeing this disconnect affect interest rates, and it's one of the reasons for that atypical behavior where the Fed's controlling interest rates on the short end, the very short maturities that they control. But longer end maturity interest rates, they as much reacting to what the Fed's doing as they're reacting to what's happening in inflation and importantly future inflation expectations. So, it's in that aspect that this atypical behavior, because inflation hasn't come back down, is still with us in the 2025 outlook.
Oscar Pulido: That was going to be my next question, which is why are long-term rates, behaving differently than short-term rates? And you've gone back to this period of covid and the pandemic where we saw an inflection point in inflation. And while, perhaps the increases in inflation are a little bit more tamed now, they, they haven't dissipated completely. So, is that the only reason that long-term rates then are moving higher or are there other bigger trends at play that you're looking at?
Jeff Rosenberg: There are other trends as well. So, inflation isa big one, but it's not the only one. So, let's talk about a couple of other things that are happening in the world today that is creating this disconnect between the behavior of short-term interest rates and long-term interest rates.
So another thing is what we call the 'term premium'. Now, it sounds fancy, but it's very simple. It's basically just what's the difference in investor pricing? How much do I get paid to tie up my money overnight - cash, CD - versus tying up my money for say, 10 years. Certainly, there's a difference in giving your money to someone for 10 years and giving it to them overnight. And that premium, that differential is the compensation that you get for not having access to that money for that long period of time. So, we call that the 'term premium.'
There was virtually no extra compensation that investors were getting for locking up their money for a 10-year period or for a short-term period. And what we've seen in the post covid environment is the term premium has reasserted or reassessed itself higher. And there are some reasons for that, one of which is the incredible volatility in inflation and in growth that we've seen in the post covid environment, but just that the term premium itself had gotten to such a low level. So, as that term premium is changing, it's affecting the relationship between long- and short-term rates.
I want to mention one other thing, which is obviously, something on everyone's mind as we move into 2025 and the new administration and what we're about to move into in terms of a huge debate around fiscal policy, but away from the short-term debate on fiscal policy is the long-term trajectory that we've been on in terms of fiscal policy.
So, you go back 20 the mid-nineties, there was a brief period in time in the Clinton administration where we actually had fiscal surpluses. That's rare! We'd been running around 2% annual fiscal deficits. That's the amount each year that we're spending more than we as a country are taking in. That's the deficits. And prospectively, it could grow even further depending on what happens in this coming year's Fiscal debate. Unlike you and I, we face a budget constraint, we can't spend more than we earn. The Federal government, it can persistently run higher deficits, it can spend more than it earns, and then it borrows the difference in government bond markets.
The difference today, is that at that's the way in which we measure it, percentage of the debt outstanding relative to the size of the US economy.
And it's getting to points where the bond market is starting to say, 'Hey, we're going to have to price in a little bit more of a premium for this longer-term fiscal uncertainty associated with this higher level of debt and deficits.' And that's a change that we've seen and Covid really shocked both of those measures. The debt, the accumulated amount, and the deficit trajectory, all inflected upwards as a result of a lot of the Covid policies that we saw during that time period.
Oscar Pulido: I mentioned at the beginning the, the bond market is such an important indicator that people look at, there's a lot of information that, that it gives you, and, and you've just highlighted, is it's telling us about inflation and where people think it, it's, it's going, it's telling us about the term premium. You mentioned that that extra premium that people are asking for to, to lend that longer term time periods. And then you also mentioned fiscal policy and, and people's view on the trajectory of where fiscal policy is headed. And, and the combination of all these three things is what's causing bond yields to rise.
Jeff, all those comments does seem very specific to the US, is this the same when you look at across other world economies?
Jeff Rosenberg: So, it's really interesting when you look at the cross global perspective because in some sense, everyone went through covid and the policy responses to Covid were very similar and we had great harmonization of both fiscal and monetary policy, the world over.
As we're exiting the Covid period and we're seeing, the changes in global country growth and inflation, you're starting to see a lot more dispersion- differences in what central banks are doing, what's the impact in their interest rates and in their bond maturity profile.
So, Japan’s raising interest rates, in this environment that we're talking about the fed cutting interest rates, they face a very different environment. They had too little inflation Covid helped them to achieve their inflation targets, they're above their inflation targets now they're moving to raise interest rates.
Contrast that to continental Europe and the European Central Bank, their growth environment has been much weaker in the post covid environment than in the US. In the US it's a story of US exceptionalism, the dynamism of our economy, partly how we dealt with COVID and the job market disruptions, partly the amount of our stimulus and partly the strength of our consumers and the weight that consumption plays within our economy, all factor into big differentials in terms of growth exposure but that factors into a much more aggressive outlook for the ECB cutting interest rates relative to the Fed, who's sort of saying, We're going to slow down here. We're not so sure. Maybe it'll be two more cuts in 2025. but signaling a slowing, whereas the ECB’s full speed ahead.
And one other country we've seen in the UK, a renewed concern around fiscal policy. The ability of the bond markets to finance that debt and deficit ratios. Very different story, much smaller economy, much more global and externally financed, so a lot more sensitivity. But some of those themes about longer term interest rates decoupling from short term interest rates, you see even more strongly in the UK gilt market.
Oscar Pulido: So let's go from, what has been a very macroeconomic discussion that you and I have been having about the bond market inflation fiscal policy. And if you bring it now to. The investment opportunities. When you're building portfolios, how do you change your portfolio construction or, or how do you do things differently if you have long-term bonds behaving differently than they have in past cycles?
Jeff Rosenberg: I want to capture this idea in two aspects. First, when you have different performance across the yield curve, this concept of where you hold your duration and duration is your measurement of price sensitivity to interest rates. Why? Why do people hold bonds in their portfolio? It depends, but a big reason people hold bonds in their portfolio is as ballast or as a diversifier to the equities in their portfolios, a whole portfolio construction perspective.
And when you're thinking about owning bonds from that perspective, now what becomes almost the most important characteristic as to how much you want to hold is, how will those bonds respond if equities go down.
And the point about where you hold your duration matters as much as how much duration you hold is they may respond very differently. That the long end may not respond in a down equity market scenario, recession fear, global economic shock, 10- 20%, as much as you thought they would. And it's really important to take this into consideration when building portfolios.
And here's the kind of punchline. The Fed can control short-term interest rates, and if there was a big enough shock, the Fed's likely to respond to that and want to bring those rates down. But if they're doing that at a time like we have today, where that inflation side of the mandate hasn't completely been won, then it's potential that you might have the long end of the curve, not react favorably to the Fed, basically saying, we're going to preference our growth target here over our inflation target by cutting short-term interest rates. when you're holding a bond portfolio, and you're holding it for ballast, you're going to want to hold the ballast part more on the shorter end of the curve.
You're going to need more notional to do that. So that creates some challenges from portfolio construction perspective, but it helps to concentrate where am I thinking about? I want to hold my bond portfolio when I'm thinking about it from ballast terms. That's one aspect.
Second, quickly, I also want to think about the components of my portfolio in terms of the components that are driven primarily by the directionality of interest rates. Are interest rates going up - what I was just talking about - and I want to separate that from the earlier thing we were talking about, which is opportunities investing in dispersion. Investing in differences in interest rates across different geographies, countries, central banks. And what's really exciting about the opportunity set in 2025 is that the dispersion opportunity is growing.
And generally, what we see is when the beta, when the directionality component, when that becomes more challenged, it's an environment where this cross country cross. Government cross central bank perspective starts to increase in its opportunity set and then what I can do is I can weight my portfolio.
How much do I want to have in the beta and the directionality aspect? How much do I want to have in this kind of cross-sectional aspect Right now, we want to be increasing that cross-sectional aspect because the opportunity set is growing, and it reduces our reliance on getting the forecast of the direction of interest rates correct.
I don't know, maybe you're going to ask me that as my next question, where are interest rates going? We'll give you a forecast, but I don't want to make the entire portfolio performance dependent on that one forecast, we want to diversify our opportunity set.
Oscar Pulido: I have to say that, oftentimes, people will describe the bond market as being a little bit boring compared to all the activity that goes on in equities. But, Jeff, in listening to you, there's a lot going on in the bond market. It's conveying a lot of information about inflation, fiscal policy and growth. And interesting investment opportunities that are arising. Jeff, thanks for sharing all of that color about your outlook and thanks for doing it here on The Bid.
Jeff Rosenberg: Great. Thanks for having me, Oscar.
Oscar Pulido: Thanks for listening to this episode of The Bid. Next week be sure to tune in where we discuss thematic investing and investing trend that focuses on identifying and capitalizing on long-term themes expected to shape the future. Subscribe to the bid wherever you get your podcasts.
<<THEME MUSIC>>
Spoken disclosures at end of each episode:
This content is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or a solicitation. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the listener.
For full disclosures go to Blackrock.com/corporate/compliance/bid-disclosures
MKTGSH0225U/M-4197791
Sharp moves in bond yields have been a key area of focus in markets to start the year. So, what’s driving this phenomenon and how is it reshaping the investment playbook compared to previous cycles?
BlackRock’s Systematic strategies seek differentiated risk and return profiles with a low correlation to broad asset classes to help diversify portfolios.
