MARKET INSIGHTS

Weekly market commentary

Jul 6, 2026

Beyond the AI bubble debate

BlackRock Bottom Line: 2026 Midyear outlook

Wei Li, Global Chief Investment Strategist, BlackRock Investment Institute

We believe we’re in a world of scarcity. Strengthening mega forces are putting increasing pressure on supply-side constraints—labor, energy, infrastructure and capital. That in turn is shaping growth, inflation and market pricing.

AI offers the promise of a permanent growth breakout through accelerating innovation, but the investment needed to build that future is reinforcing scarcity.

That backdrop shapes the three investment themes we're focused on in our 2026 Midyear Outlook.

First, AI scarcity.

The AI buildout is accelerating and we’re focused on opportunities where bottlenecks are appearing: power, grids, chips and data centers. We see physical AI, including robotics and autonomous manufacturing, as the next frontier.

Second, durable income.

Higher yields have made income attractive again, but where that income comes from matters. We favor short-duration maturities, particularly euro area government bonds, along with public and private credit backed by resilient cash flows.

Third, beyond labels.

Traditional asset-class buckets are becoming less useful – and infrastructure highlights this. We think investors should start with the themes and risks they want exposure to—and then choose the best way to access them.

The bottom line: AI may reshape the long-term growth outlook, but the route to such abundance runs through scarcity. We think investors should regularly reassess their exposures and get more granular with views as this economic transformation evolves.

Disclosures

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Reconciling AI earnings and valuations

The debate over whether AI exuberance is overdone is less about today's valuations than whether future earnings can remain at extraordinary levels.

Market backdrop

The S&P 500 rose 2% last week and capped its strongest quarter in six years as markets increasingly price the possibility of an AI-driven growth breakout.

Week ahead

We eye minutes from the Fed’s June policy meeting for signs that policymakers struck a less hawkish tone than markets inferred from the June dot plot.

Are we in an AI bubble? We think the answer depends on whether AI can turn today's scarcity into tomorrow's abundance. Markets are increasingly pricing that outcome, expecting AI to lift productivity and growth enough to sustain today's extraordinary earnings. Whether those earnings can endure – not where valuations sit relative to history – is key. Still-elevated margins suggest they can. We remain overweight U.S. equities, favoring the scarce inputs every AI system requires.

Download full commentary (PDF)

Market commentary Asset class views
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Parting ways?
Shiller CAPE ratio and S&P 500 forward earnings ratio, 1985-26

This chart shows that higher equity prices have been accompanied by stronger earnings expectations. The Shiller P/E looks stretched by historical standards, but the 12-month forward P/E has remained closer to its long-run average.

The figure shown relates to past performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute with data from LSEG Datastream, July 2026. Note: Shiller P/E is based on the ten-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings. The 12-month forward P/E is based on future 12-month earnings estimates. Historical averages: 1900–2026 for Shiller CAPE and 1985–2026 for the S&P 12-month forward P/E.

U.S. equities are enjoying an extraordinary earnings run. S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 23% year on year in Q2, marking a seventh-consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. The Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has climbed to 40, back to levels last seen during the dot-com bubble. Yet the 12-month forward P/E ratio offers a more balanced perspective. At around 21, valuations look less stretched because earnings expectations have risen sharply with share prices. See the chart. Median external forecasts also point to U.S. growth of about 3.5% – roughly 1.7 times its historical trend – reinforcing market expectations that AI could drive a growth breakout. Whether today’s valuations prove justified comes down to whether the earnings momentum can be sustained.

One essential nuance? Concluding AI has become a bubble is itself a significant call: it assumes the technology will not generate a lasting breakout in productivity and growth. Previous technological revolutions did not deliver a lasting breakout in productivity and growth, but AI could prove different by creating new, durable sources of revenue. The evidence so far has been supportive. Incremental margins remain above operating margins across most AI value-chain baskets, suggesting AI-related revenues are still translating into unusually strong profits. That reinforces our view that the investment cycle has further to run and supports our overweight to U.S. equities. While identifying the ultimate AI winners is difficult, we believe many will be found in the U.S. given its leadership in chips, frontier AI models and deep capital markets.

An active approach to AI scarcity

Within that, we prefer expressing the AI theme through scarcity. We do not need to know which AI model or application ultimately wins to know that every AI system depends on chips, memory, power and data center infrastructure. Companies supplying these scarce inputs benefit from sustained capital investment and, in many cases, long order books that provide greater visibility into future earnings. That makes scarcity one way to navigate uncertainty around earnings durability, and our highest-conviction AI investment idea.

The AI opportunity, however, extends well beyond today's bottlenecks. As the buildout shifts toward physical AI, opportunities are emerging in robotics, sensors and industrial automation, making active security selection increasingly important. China has advantages across parts of that value chain, including manufacturing and batteries. Yet manufacturing strength alone does not guarantee attractive equity returns, reinforcing our preference for active investing rather than broad regional calls. We also see opportunities beyond today's mega caps. Select small-cap companies, emerging market infrastructure providers and industrial firms could offer attractive exposure to the scarce inputs powering the next phase of AI.

Our bottom line

We focus on companies best positioned to deliver a durable earnings breakout, expressing our AI conviction through scarcity while relying on an active approach to identify opportunities. We’re overweight U.S. equities on the AI theme.

Market backdrop

The S&P 500 added 2% last week and capped off its strongest quarterly gain in six years. Semiconductors fell sharply – a prime example of the tension between our scarcity and abundance theme. The Japanese yen slid to a 40-year low against the dollar, though we don’t see these moves as the prelude to another bout of cross-asset volatility for now. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields climbed 10 basis points to 4.48% on concerns of potential interest rate hikes ahead.

We eye the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting for insight into the debate behind the decision to hold rates steady despite still-sticky inflation and a resilient labor market. What’s key is whether the discussion supports our view that markets took the June dot plot's hawkish signals too literally or instead points to a more meaningful shift in the Fed's policy approach.

Week ahead

The chart shows that brent crude is the best-performing asset year-to-date, while bitcoin is the worst.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of July 2, 2026. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest res at any point year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date res. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) res are denominated in U.S. dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, spot bitcoin, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (U.S., Germany and Italy), Bloomberg Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bloomberg Global Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.

July 6

S&P Global PMI final

July 7

U.S. trade balance

July 8

Fed June meeting minutes

July 9

China PPI and CPI

Read our past weekly market commentaries here.

Intersecting mega forces

Since we launched our mega forces framework it has become clearer how their intersection shapes almost all our investment views and opens up alpha opportunities. They cut across asset class labels, spurring a rethink of portfolio construction. Investors need to be deliberate about the economic or thematic exposures they own, the vehicles they use to implement them and their investment horizons.

The chart shows BlackRock's five mega forces framework and how their intersection shapes investment views and opens up investment opportunities.

From drivers to portfolio expressions

Our highest conviction views, July 2026

Driver What we think Portfolio expression
Growth and AI scarcity The AI buildout is speeding up, making bottlenecks binding. Overweight U.S. equities; focus on AI bottleneck opportunities: power, chips and data centers.
Duration and diversification Long bonds carry high rate sensitivity and are less reliable diversifiers. Prefer short- and medium-term government bonds over long bonds for income.
Credit spreads and liquidity Selectivity is crucial amid tight spreads and uneven fundamentals. Credit with clear cash flows, lender protections and recovery value; higher-rated high yield.
Inflation and scarcity Scarcity, secure supply and power demand carry inflation risks. Infrastructure, energy bottlenecks, EM local debt and real-asset-linked exposures.
Alpha opportunity Macro outcomes matter again in the new regime. Macro hedge funds, venture capital, market-neutral strategies, and selected private credit and non-U.S. alpha.

Note: Views are from a U.S. dollar perspective, July 2026. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security.

Asset class implications

Six- to 12-month tactical positioning, July 2026

This shows the implementation of our key investment views from the previous page through an asset class lens.

Legend Granular

Asset   Tactical view Commentary
Equities      
United States   United States: tactical Overweight +1 We are overweight. Strong corporate earnings, fueled by the AI buildout and a favorable macro backdrop, are outpacing higher interest rate expectations.
Europe   Europe: tactical Neutral 0 We are neutral. We would need to see more business-friendly policy and deeper capital markets for Europe to outperform. We favor financials, infrastructure, and industrials.
UK   UK: tactical Neutral We are neutral. Valuations remain attractive relative to the U.S., but we see few near-term catalysts to trigger a shift.
Japan   Japan: tactical Overweight +1 We are neutral. Strong corporate balance sheets and governance reforms remain supportive. We prefer targeted exposures to physical AI and the buildout’s bottlenecks.
Emerging markets (EM)   Emerging markets: tactical Neutral We are neutral. We see opportunities where the AI buildout drives demand for infrastructure, particularly in Latin America.
China   China: tactical Neutral We are neutral. We see opportunities in physical AI. Cheap, open-source AI could drive adoption, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into AI-provider profitability.
Fixed income      
Short U.S. Treasuries   Short U.S. Treasuries: tactical Neutral We are neutral. We prefer short- and medium-term Treasuries, given the attractive risk-adjusted income on offer.
Long U.S. Treasuries   Long U.S. Treasuries: tactical Neutral We are underweight. We see investors wanting more compensation for holding long-term bonds amid persistent inflation and high debt loads. Long-duration bonds also are a less reliable portfolio diversifier in the new regime.
Global inflation-linked bonds   Global inflation-linked bonds: tactical Neutral We are neutral. We see inflation settling above pre-pandemic levels, but markets may not price this in the near term as economic growth could slow.
Euro area government bonds   Euro area government bonds: tactical Neutral We are overweight short- and medium-term bonds. Markets are pricing restrictive policy rates of about 3% for several years. We think that’s overdone.
UK gilts   UK gilts: tactical Neutral We are neutral. We expect periods of elevated volatility given political uncertainty, longer-term bonds making up a larger market share, and buyers becoming more price-sensitive.
Japanese government bonds   Japanese government bonds: tactical Underweight -1 We are underweight. Rate hikes, higher global term premium and heavy bond issuance will likely drive yields up further.
China government bonds   China government bonds: tactical Neutral We are neutral. China bonds offer stability and diversification but developed market yields are higher. A shift in investor sentiment toward equities limits upside.
U.S. agency MBS   U.S. agency MBS: tactical Overweight +1 We are overweight. Agency MBS offer higher income than Treasuries with similar risk and may offer more diversification amid fiscal and inflationary pressures.
Short-term IG credit   Global investment grade: tacticalOverweight +1 We are neutral. Spreads are tight due to corporate strength; they could widen if issuance increases or risk appetite shifts.
Long-term IG credit   Global investment grade: tactical Underweight -1 We are underweight. We prefer short-term bonds less exposed to interest rate risk over long-term bonds.
Global high yield   Global high yield: tactical Neutral We are neutral. High yield offers attractive income. We prefer higher-rated U.S. and European high yield over investment grade and see dispersion of returns increasing.
Asia credit   Asia credit: tactical Neutral We are neutral. Overall yields are attractive and fundamentals are solid, but spreads are tight.
Emerging hard currency   Emerging market-hard currency: tactical Underweight We are neutral. Fundamentals have improved, but we see a more attractive risk-reward profile in EM local debt.
Emerging local currency   Emerging market-local currency: tactical Neutral We are overweight. We like the yield relative to its volatility and improving fundamentals.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a U.S. dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.

Euro-denominated tactical granular views

Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, July 2026

Legend Granular

We have lengthened our tactical investment horizon back to six to 12 months. The table below reflects this and, importantly, leaves aside the opportunity for alpha, or the potential to generate above-benchmark returns – especially at a time of heightened volatility.

Asset Tactical view Commentary
Equities    
 Europe ex UK Europe ex UK: tactical Neutral We are neutral. We would need to see more business-friendly policy and deeper capital markets for recent outperformance to continue and to justify a broad overweight. We stay selective, favoring financials, utilities and healthcare.
Germany Germany: tactical Neutral We are neutral. Increased spending on defense and infrastructure could boost the corporate sector. But valuations rose significantly in 2025 and 2026 earnings revisions for other countries are outpacing Germany.
France France: tactical Neutral We are neutral. Political uncertainty could continue to drag corporate earnings behind peer markets. Yet some major French firms are shielded from domestic weakness, as foreign activity accounts for most of their revenues and operations.
Italy Italy: tactical Neutral We are neutral. Valuations are supportive relative to peers. Yet we think the growth and earnings outperformance that characterized 2022-2023 is unlikely to persist as fiscal consolidation continues and the impact of prior stimulus peters out.
Spain Spain: tactical owerweight +1 We are overweight. Valuations and earnings growth are supportive relative to peers. Financials, utilities and infrastructure stocks stand to gain from a strong economic backdrop and advancements in AI. High exposure to fast-growing areas like emerging markets is also supportive.
Netherlands Netherlands: tactical neutral We are neutral. Technology and semiconductors feature heavily in the Dutch stock market, but that’s offset by other sectors seeing less favorable valuations and a weaker earnings outlook than European peers.
Switzerland Switzerland: tactical Neutral We are neutral. Valuations have improved, but the earnings outlook is weaker than other European markets. If global risk appetite stays strong, the index’s tilt to stable, less volatile sectors may weigh on performance.
UK UK: tactical neutral We are neutral. Valuations remain attractive relative to the U.S., but we see few near-term catalysts to trigger a shift.
     
Fixed income    
Euro area government bonds Euro area government bonds: tactical Neutral We are neutral short-term European government bonds. The market has repriced the ECB policy path more in line with our view. We think increased German bond issuance to finance its fiscal stimulus package is already largely reflected in the current level of 10-year yields.
German bunds German bunds tactical Underweight -1 We are neutral. Markets have largely priced in fiscal stimulus and bond issuance, and expectations for policy rates align with our view.
French OATs French OATss: tactical Underweight -1 We are neutral. Political uncertainty, high budget deficits and slow structural reforms could stoke volatility, but current spreads incorporate these risks and we don’t expect a worsening from here.
Italian BTPs Italian BTPss: tactical Neutral We are neutral. Demand from Italian households is strong at current yield levels. Spreads tightened in line with its sovereign credit upgrade, but a persistently high debt-to-GDP levels means they likely won’t tighten further.
UK gilts UK gilts: tactical neutral We are neutral. We expect volatility in gilts over the near-term. Gas powers much of the UK’s electricity, but storage is limited – making it especially vulnerable to a resurgence in inflation.
Swiss government bonds Swiss government bonds: tactical tactical Neutral We are neutral. We don’t think the Swiss National Bank will slash policy rates to below zero, as markets expect.
European inflation-protected securities European inflation-protected securities: tactical Neutral We are neutral. Our medium-term inflation expectations align with those implied in current market pricing.
European investment grade European investment grade: tactical Neutral We are neutral. We favor short- to medium-term debt and Europe over the U.S. An intense re-leveraging cycle to support the AI buildout could put upward pressure on U.S. spreads, making Europe relatively more attractive.
European high yield European high yield: tactical owerweight +1 We are overweight. Spreads hover near historic lows, but credit losses have been limited in this cycle and better economic growth in 2026 could reduce them further.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a euro perspective, July 2026. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.

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Meet the authors
Jean Boivin

Jean Boivin

Head – BlackRock Investment Institute
Wei Li

Wei Li

Global Chief Investment Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
Vivek Paul

Vivek Paul

Global Head of Portfolio Research – BlackRock Investment Institute
Beata Harasim

Beata Harasim

Senior Investment Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute

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