[00:00:08.81] GARGI PAL CHAUDHURI: Inflation is transitory the same way as dinosaurs were transitory. So they came around, and they stomped around the Earth for a couple of million years, caused a lot of destruction, and then they were gone. And that's the same sort of nature, depending on what you think about the word “transitory.”
[00:00:26.81] PETER GAILLIOT: There will be a deceleration of growth going into 2022, but it still should be sufficient. And it should be supported not just by all of the improvements of the global economy that we've seen to date, but also keeping in mind so much of the stimulus that was put forth last year, as well as this year, has yet to go out the door. And there's obviously always a pretty big lag effect of moving interest rates as low as we've seen globally.
[00:00:54.92] VLAD BARBALAT: We were, in fact, able to be quite nimble when the dislocation happened. It was not because we certainly had any insight as to what came down and dislocated markets in March of 2020. It was much more about the fact that we were able to communicate across our investment platform, effectively identify the relative value opportunities. And we did end up transacting a lot, both in the public and the private markets, taking advantage of the opportunities that were available to us.
[00:01:25.10] AMY STEPNOWSKI: Having a culture that could come together, act collaboratively, and have the level of trust and respect for our colleagues, regardless of what the situation was, allowed us all to be able to act more nimbly, be more proactive, think about things in a way that we hadn't thought about them before. Because these were clearly unprecedented times.
[00:01:47.01] ANDREW MCMAHON: Our industry has been, for a long time-- and as lots of people, and particularly venture, have pointed out-- very analog. And for me, the trend here is digitization of that, is how do we best find, ingest data, drive insights from that to really create innovative new product, serve consumers better, but then also to automate things that are being done manually, analog today that take a lot longer time?
[00:02:20.45] AMY STEPNOWSKI: Given the low-rate environment, we are within the risk appetite that the Hartford has. The Hartford is leaning into the private asset classes. We've had a history of being involved in private equity and real estate and private placements with a range of private asset classes, and that continues. With regard to the retail investor, their influence in public markets has obviously increased over the last 18 months.
[00:02:47.04] And we're watching that very carefully, because in my perspective, that's something that's likely to evolve into-- more in the private markets as well. And we certainly see the added volatility that the retail investor has brought, I think, to the public markets. And so that's a consideration for us as we think about the alternatives and private investments as well.
[00:03:07.58] VLAD BARBALAT: I think asset allocation has continued to evolve to find ways to take in risk premia that isn't necessarily just associated with credit risk, but all other forms of risk premia, including complexity risk, structuring risk. There's actually a lot of complexity to that. And there is a lot of delay, effectively, both in terms of being able to get the right exposure on the book and then struggling to keep it on the book, because that treadmill runs very, very fast.
[00:03:38.27] MATT POZNAR: Capital efficiency is critically important. And we're always-- whether we're doing our strategic asset allocation or picking individual investments, we're seeking to maximize excess return-- loss-adjusted, expense-adjusted, et cetera. But when I think about it, whether it's strategic asset allocation or individual investment decisions, while we're looking to maximize excess return, we're always putting a pretty stringent risk parameter on it.
[00:04:07.71] The other thing-- we're super sensitive to our risk-based capital, the different regimes, whether it's [INAUDIBLE] capital or the rating agencies or other jurisdictions. And so we tend-- again, when we're doing strategic or tactical portfolio asset allocation, we almost always have some sort of a risk-based capital budget that we're seeking to live within.
[00:04:31.94] VLAD BARBALAT: When we think about ESG, it is very, very much innate in what our product is. It's a social good. And we would certainly want to work towards a world which has addressed, resolved, and improved some of the challenges that we face today, particularly in sustainability. And so to that end, I think we've been on a journey where defining what the E, the S, and the G mean to us at Liberty Mutual and then making it practical and working through the various investment opportunities, evaluating them through that lens while not necessarily being exclusionary, but being aware of certain capital flows that may affect different asset classes.
[00:05:15.65] And so that's been, I think, the hard work that we've been doing for quite some time. And it is work that requires investment acumen, but it also requires a substantial amount of data. It requires a substantial amount of analytics to be built in, coming back to that investment process. And all that is non-trivial. It requires a substantial investment. It requires understanding how some of these analytics are being created and how to then utilize them in a way that makes sense and rolls up to what I've said is our interpretation of ESG.
[00:05:54.03] MATT POZNAR: As a society, we've become aware of more things. Over the last couple of years in particular, things have intensified. And so what we did about 18 months ago is we established a formal Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Council. So it's kind of grassroots-led, but it's there as a consciousness-raising body to keep functional leaders responsible for different aspects of the business where you got to keep your eye on DEI. We may not be as good as we want to be or need to be, and we may need to make some changes.
[00:06:25.47] And so even on the investment portfolio, I need that DEI counsel pushing me to say, hey, Matt, in your investment strategies and philosophies, are you applying the right lens? Similarly, in the investment portfolio, ESG factors have always been implicit or explicit in our investment policies and practices. But now we're taking a step function up to be more declarative in what we want to do, and also, and particularly around things like climate change, where a lot is changing rapidly, to make sure that we're not just looking at the obvious first-derivative type effects, let's say with the energy or coal miners or things like that, but we're looking at our real estate portfolio with a new lens in terms of different risks that could be apparent there or even into corporate credit.
[00:07:11.22] ANDREW MCMAHON: I think our industry has been behind on diversity for whatever reasons that existed there. But again, back to even sustainability, on diversity, there's a lot we can do. And as we've all recognized, you get what you measure. And so we've started measuring lots of this, and we've started putting people's goals. And so for instance, we may mandate diverse slates on every job hiring. And so until we have a diverse slate, you can't proceed.
[00:07:41.49] And so we're holding we're holding people to the fire on that. We're holding people in their performance reviews. And the idea is really creating, again, not just diversity numbers for the sake of diversity numbers, but creating an environment, a culture, a platform, a business where people feel comfortable, they feel included, they feel valued, and they bring that diverse background and perspective to the problem solving. Unconscious bias training, diversity training-- we've been doing a lot of inclusion training.
[00:08:14.40] There's lots of things. As we do some of this training, people walk away from the training, hopefully, and go-- and not even realize they had an unconscious bias for something. And none of us, I think-- deep down, nobody wants to admit if they have a bias. And many of us can't even see our own unconscious bias. But I think that training is critically important for us to bring out awareness in where we may be falling short and not even knowing it.
[00:08:43.75] As we see supply chain challenges and issues here in the United States and cargo ships all backed up outside many of our harbors right now. And I think when we think back to the pandemic, the sustainability even as we look at pharmaceutical drugs that we're dependent on other countries for to get here, you look at PPE, equipment for people during the pandemic, and masks, and so forth and so on, I think sustainability is a real-- is first, then inflation on top of that.
[00:09:23.75] PETER GAILLIOT: The best indicator of risk asset performance post the financial crisis-- it's on the flow of liquidity. It's not the stock, but the flow. And you can assign that flow for developed markets, for emerging markets, for equities, fixed income, alternatives. The flow of liquidity has been such a powerful support for risk assets broadly.
[00:09:43.26] But I think it's really important to take note of the fact that we are probably at a peak in liquidity. And even though there is a mountain of investors, just a substantial amount of demand that is waiting on the sidelines, it is notable that we are hitting one of those inflection points. And with almost every vol episode we have seen post the financial crisis, it has been preceded by one of these peaks in liquidity.
[00:10:06.68] RICK RIEDER: I think we're in nirvana for the equity market, nirvana. I mean, you take that dynamic around demand. You take the ROE accretion. Look at the upper left, and look at the ROE. The yellow line is the NASDAQ. You look at Google's numbers and Microsoft's numbers, [INAUDIBLE] never [INAUDIBLE] to like it. You can throw off $90 billion of EBITDA or $60-plus billion of free cash flow.
[00:10:27.23] If you can run ROE like that and your book value accretion is what it is, and you think about where companies are today without going through this whole page on the bottom middle in places like tech, discretionary-- if the real rate stays low and you can get book value accretion of 15%, 20%, or better for some of these companies-- people say stocks are run up too much, they're too high. I just don't buy it. I don't buy it. I think these metrics are really powerful and are durable.
The 9th annual Insurance Leaders Symposium featured senior BlackRock thought leaders and influential industry voices to explore the “new normal” for insurers.
Key takeaways
Inflation will stick around for a while
The inflation rate continues to rise and shows no sign of relief any time soon. Inflation has been most noticeable in housing, as the increase in rents and mortgages don’t match the current housing market; in jobs, as the labor market experiences fewer workers and higher wages; and the supply-chain, as shipments continue to arrive late if at all.
There is a rising demand for insurtech
Insurers are turning to digital, AI, and machine learning to find new ways to ingest data, drive insights, innovate, and automate processes that are manual and require a lot of time and effort.
Insurers are further along than they thought in ESG
After recent climate and societal changes, insurers need to start re-examining what “E,” “S,” and “G” mean to their organizations and determine what practical and capital resources are needed for investment.
[00:00:00.36] RICK RIEDER: You talk about markets being dynamic, then today is a pretty darn good example of it. So I'm going to hit a couple and try and relate it to, literally, today's price action. And so the title of this presentation is Why Halloween is in October, but Christmas is in December, for markets at least.
[00:00:15.36] If you go to the next page. I'm going to talk a little bit of why-- and for those of you who haven't seen me present before, I try and get seven graphs on a page just to make sure it's short in pages but long in content.
[00:00:28.11] Anyway, the point about Halloween in October and the market's reaction, pretty incredible what happens in October. I show, on the upper left, performance at the beginning of the year in places like high-yield, like stocks, you look at the MSCI in the third graph, and then you juxtapose that to what happens in September/October and look at the vol market on the upper right. And I also thought this was interesting on the bottom left, when you look at bond flows dwindle as a year goes on.
[00:01:01.33] And I think it's pretty remarkable. Because when you look at the bottom part of this, it's actually not that returns are necessarily better in bonds at the beginning of the year versus the back part. But pretty extraordinary.
[00:01:12.80] And I think a lot of that is-- and I think a lot of what we're seeing in the markets today, literally today, is people put money to work at beginning of the year, whether it's pension fund, insurance company, et cetera. And a lot of that gets put into the market early. And then you get this period of lower liquidity, aberrational price movements.
[00:01:31.00] And people just tend not to want to take a lot of risks. And part of my argument about Halloween in September/October. And then you get into the back part of the year, where people start to position for next year, where you get the markets, including equities, tend to improve.
[00:01:45.28] Go to the next page. You know, away from the seasonal dynamics, when you think about the core structural dynamics in the markets-- and at the end of the day, this is a ton of noise that's in the system-- I think these are the key tenets. So I think about if you're investing as opposed to trading, I certainly hold my hat on around this is going to work through.
[00:02:07.75] The upper left is the world still needs more yield than ever before. You look at the movement in rates over the last couple of days-- and I got asked on CNBC today, Joe Kernan, how can inflation be running what it is and we have a 1.59% 10-year? Well, it's now 1.53%. The demand for yield and income-- and the top middle, as you all know, the demographics are extraordinary.
[00:02:30.50] And I think we're in a dynamic that the economy is strong, and I think the central banks are going to react to that. And we saw the Bank of Canada today, which ended QE quickly. And I do think the economy is strong. And I think this demand for yield is going to continue. And so the thing about that, how do you juxtapose that in terms of interest rate movements, which we'll talk about in a second.
[00:02:53.66] And then the bottom left, reflective of, I think, a strong economy. I want to talk about the economy in a second because I think there's some powerful things to talk about there.
[00:03:01.97] But at the end of the day, when you look at the bottom middle and I think about the world that we're living in today, I think equity markets going higher. And I think we're in this extraordinarily unique point in time where you look at where yields are today and look at the 10-year relative where you been over the last 30, 40 years, and you look at earnings yield, and I've been watching these earnings reports over the last couple of weeks, they've been, on balance, pretty darn good.
[00:03:27.07] And if you take that with a low discount rate and you take the earnings yield of the equity market relative to where the companies finance themselves, which I always think is a better metric than P/E or price-to-book or anything like that, it's still pretty attractive. So the comment about people using more equity, or private investments, et cetera, my sense is there's a durable nature that.
[00:03:46.48] If you go to the next page. So I want to talk about [INAUDIBLE] in one page and way too much text and graphs on inflation. So you can ask, like CNBC today, all they want to know is what's the number on inflation? Like what is the number we're operating at? But if you look at this chart on the top left, this movement on inflation is much more complex than people give credit to. And it's the smaller segments of the economy and the goods economy where you're seeing some of these sharp movements in inflation.
[00:04:18.02] And then services, you look at the bottom, and you think about what's happening. And part of where I think we come out on inflation is look at the bottom left. Look at what's happened over the last, what is that, 70 years. And you look at the dynamic about goods as a share of consumption and services as a share of consumption.
[00:04:38.52] And you think about what we're seeing today around the spike higher in goods inflation in many areas. A, it's not that large a portion of the consumption basket today. And B, some of these areas are-- when we talk about energy, we talk about the semiconductor, supply chain shocks, some of this, I would argue, will, in fact, start to abate over the coming months.
[00:05:03.01] And so this is our forecast for PCE on the upper right. You spike, what we're going through today, and probably going to get core PCE that's going to run pretty high through the beginning of next year. And then we actually think it's going to come down, on a model base, in terms of where inflation is.
[00:05:19.36] So I think, as a core, I do think that inflation-- I was asked today about hyperinflation. I think it's wrong. There are some sticky parts of inflation. Wages are not going down. And I think they're going to be strong for a while. I do think there's a tail to this energy dynamic. But I think, most of this, technology is going to address.
[00:05:37.69] And so I think inflation is going to run hotter and for a longer period of time, and certainly in the mid to high 2's on a run-rate basis. But I'm not that worried about inflation. People say interest rates can move dramatically higher. I don't buy it.
[00:05:52.08] So if you go to the next page. So let me spend one minute on demand. This is absolutely unbelievable to me. So what I take is I take corporate Capex and I look at the dynamic around where companies are today and their ability to spend. And part of why I'm convinced the economy, the US economy particularly, is going to be really good shape the next couple of years is companies, they are flush with cash.
[00:06:17.38] And you look at their ability to put money in R&D, Capex, buy back their stock. And then you look at the bottom. And inventory levels are down. And people say, well, gosh, you have a supply shock in terms of inventory's down. But if you look at that chart on the bottom middle, actually, if you take total business inventories, there's not a big reduction in inventories. What's happening is the demand is so darn large.
[00:06:39.01] And I'm not saying there's some areas, semiconductors being one of them, that there's not some shortage. But I think, when you step back and say, what's the big picture, I think the big picture is the economy is really strong. So when we think about investing in credit or investing in private equity or equity, I do think this is really powerful.
[00:06:54.67] And go to the next page if you would. So I'll spend one more-- and just to show, we did a bunch of numbers on this, and I don't take the tight agenda, but listen, I think where I get confidence in knowing that I think that demand is going to stay strong, consumption tracks income over time.
[00:07:12.54] Look at the chart on the upper left. And then you take the top middle. This is consumers, through COVID, have actually underspent their normal income, locked in the house, underspent their income. So you take that number, what we did on the right side of this, and we said, OK, they've underspent their income to the tune of $670 billion the last 18 months. Then you got a $2 trillion federal stimulus check.
[00:07:36.18] And then you take this chart on the bottom left, you say normal income is still slowing. The markets like to say, well, that graph seems like it's slowing. It's just because you had your measurement of what you had during COVID. But you're still growing at 5% a year. And with average hourly earnings growth now at 4.5%, adding job growth to the mix, I mean, you could have this consumption dynamic. There's still more people that are going to come in the workforce. I think I've never seen a stronger job market.
[00:08:04.50] And go to the next page. Just to put this in a final perspective, if you break down this income-- and to me, this is really powerful-- if you take the upper left, the $670 billion savings, the $2 trillion in one-time transfers, and then you build-- and without going through all the math, but if you take these numbers on the bottom and say, OK, let's say, what is consumption normally, and then you take this underspend and the savings dynamic and the delevering, it'll take four years to work through this savings, meaning I just don't buy the argument when people say stagflation.
[00:08:39.18] I don't see any stag to this. I do think there's tangible growth here. We can debate, you know, is EM slowing or is China slowing, but I don't see anything here.
[00:08:49.73] If you go to the next page. I know I'm racing through a bunch of stuff in the order of time. Let's talk about energy for a second. I'm going to hit some of these quickly. You know, there's something different. And this came up on TV again today, that if you look at inventory levels-- look at the chart on the top left. Inventory levels in energy are definitely low.
[00:09:09.70] And then if you say, gosh, you know, it's pressing on consumer confidence to some extent because you've got a shock in energy prices. But this is not a classic 1970s oil shortage. I mean, you look at the imports into the US, and you know, you have a dynamic today that, when you look at the chart on the bottom middle, if the rig count moves up, and then you look at the bottom left, and you look at share of consumer's wallet, and the bottom right, that rigs are more productive-- listen, I think oil prices going higher in the near term. But I don't think this is a shocked dramatic pressure on consumer sentiment that we're going to see gas lines, et cetera. So anyway, I think putting some perspective on that, I think, is pretty critical.
[00:09:51.32] Go to the next page if you would. I just want to spend a minute on earnings this last week. And you look at these earnings surprises. And I thought there's something-- and I talked about this earlier today-- when you think about inflation on a corporate balance sheet, and you take sales, and let's say you can price it through-- let's say the demand is significant and you price through this higher demand, you can actually get some pricing power.
[00:10:17.45] I mean, you look at the top middle, companies' expenses are half fixed, half variable. If they've got a 30-year lease on their building, unless there's some price adjustment in it, you know, you think about it, you've got fixed costs and you've got variable costs, meaning, what we ran on the upper right, you've got operating leverage. You're a company that can pass through price, you've actually got a pretty good point here. So you know, when people said we're going to get some big profit warnings, not to be too Pollyannaish, I don't really think that's right.
[00:10:41.71] And go to the next page. By the way, I set this as ghouls, and that was this Halloween thing about what the real risks are in the system. Listen, this one, I don't think we should overlook. I'm not worried about demand destruction, I'm not worried about stagflation, I'm not worried about earnings problems. Listen, China is going through-- I mean, look at, on the upper left, high-yield defaults, you look at, obviously, coal prices, and you look at an economy that's-- look at the bottom left.
[00:11:09.69] The evolution of that economy into an election year, and the uncertainty around what's happening, and the slowdown of the economy, listen, this, to me, when people say, what keeps you up at night, this is definitely a risk. At the end of the day, I think policy is brilliant in China. And I think they'll engineer some reform [? alongside ?] of a slower growth dynamic.
[00:11:28.62] I literally just came back from a lunch with a senior Chinese official. They are impressive. And I do think that this is a dynamic around changing some of the regulatory dynamics and moving towards broader wealth parity in China. But anyway, I do think it's a big risk today in the system.
[00:11:53.98] Let's go to the next page. So let's talk about the Fed. And I want to talk about this rate move. I think this dynamic, when you take-- I think the Fed should have tapered months ago. I don't think the system needs any more liquidity.
[00:12:09.76] But there's something that's really important. If you think about, when liquidity comes, down there's a few things that happen. One, we map it against the 10-year Treasury, we map it against the S&P 500, and we map it against gold. And you see how unbelievably effective liquidity is in the system about A, dulling volatility, B, moving prices. And I show, on the bottom left, look at the VIX. The next one-year change, when the liquidity changes, you know, vol goes up after liquidity comes out. And by the way, just on the bottom right, when the market goes down hard, it's when liquidity comes up.
[00:12:44.35] There's one really important point here. The Fed's not reducing. They are slowing down the amount they're buying and they're keeping their balance sheets static for a long time. So I'm not that worried. I'm definitely not worried about the Fed taper, or I haven't been. But I want to talk about rates for a second.
[00:12:59.60] And if we go to the next-- and I'll finish on this. So if you take the Treasury's general account in the upper left, so this was this unbelievably large infusion of money from the Treasury. And then you look at how different this is going forward. So you think about [INAUDIBLE] the TGA paydown, there is some impetus for you could have rate move up a little bit in this environment, today notwithstanding. And I'll talk about this in a second.
[00:13:29.00] The liquidity, as I show in the upper right, is still massive. And then, if you look at-- one thing, on the bottom part of this, I don't really thin, when people say, my God, the size of the debt that's outstanding, if you look at the bottom left, the Fed's monetized most of the debt. And then you x the bottom middle, with lower interest rates, interest coverage is actually better than it's ever been. And when people say there's too much debt, there's actually too much cash.
[00:13:54.20] So go to the next page. I'm going to talk about why I think rates can move a bit higher, but I don't think they're going very far. Sorry, go back to 13 for one second. Maybe the hint to move faster or finish.
[00:14:06.26] When you look at the upper left, listen, I think the Fed-- if you look at where rates are going to be, and you take the demographic model, which I think is the best long-term model of interest rates, and then you take where the Fed's long-run median dot is, at about 2 and 1/2%, and then I just want to talk about something that I think is really important.
[00:14:24.96] You look at the upper right. Real yield is where the tail has wagged the nominal yield dog in the last decade. But if you look on the bottom, the last few years, 10-year rates traded in a range of 2% to 3 and 1/2%. But I think they're going to be lower for a long period of time.
[00:14:40.27] And if you look at inflation on the bottom middle, 10-year 10-year inflation expectation has been about 2% to 2 and 1/2%. And I could see that being a little bit higher. So what does that do to the real rate? I think the real rate can continue to be much lower than people think on days like today. I think we could be significantly lower, in a range of negative 1% to negative 1.75%.
[00:14:59.46] And go to the next page. And I'm going to make one big point on this. If you look at the upper left and you look at where US pension funds are today-- and by the way, this week's price action is definitely related to this-- if you take the pension funding status that's now fully funded, and if you look at the trajectory of where that funding could be over the next few years, and then you take the upper right, and you think about, if you're fully funded, the allocation of long-durated assets, Treasuries, et cetera, grows.
[00:15:32.49] And I did one example that we don't have time to go through. I remember presenting to the Fed years ago, under Bernanke, and the whole Fed board, about the UK pension scheme. Because of the need and because of the regulatory dynamics around buying long-durated assets, their real rates have stayed low.
[00:15:47.19] Look at that chart on the bottom left. Their real rates have stayed low for a long time. One man's opinion, I think that US real rates, we're in a different mode. And so part of why I think rates can move a bit higher from here, I just don't think we're going very far. Part of why I think risk assets are OK, I think credit is going to be OK, because I think we're in a systemically lower real rate dynamic.
[00:16:08.32] So I'll finish on the next page. If you take this and you summarize it, listen, I think we're in nirvana for the equity market-- nirvana. I mean, take that dynamic around demand, you take the ROE accretion-- look at the upper left, and look at the ROE-- [INAUDIBLE] yellow line is the NASDAQ, and you look at Google's numbers and Microsoft's numbers today, I've never seen anything like it. When you can throw off $90 billion EBITDA or $60-plus billion of free cash flow, if you can run ROE like that-- and your book value accretion is what it is-- and you think about where companies are today, without going through this whole page, on the bottom middle, in places like tech, discretionary, if the real rate stays low and you can get book value accretion of 15%, 20% or better for some of these companies, people say stocks are running up too much, they're too high, I just don't buy it. I don't buy it. I think these metrics are really powerful and are durable.
[00:17:10.54] So anyway, I'll stop. My last page is just a summary which you all can look at, around expressions in and around-- I probably overplayed the-- and I'll spend one second, look at the upper left. You look at the risk-free rate And if you think about what's happening, it's real rates continue to stay low.
[00:17:29.80] And I think, if that's right, this chart on the upper right, the need to be on the right side, I've got to get real yield in my portfolio, whether that's through equities, EM we can talk about, which is not the easiest way to get there, but I think the bid for yield, I think the bid for income-producing assets, using some illiquidity to get there is, I think, where the world is going to be for the foreseeable future.
[00:17:52.19] So anyway, I'll stop talking and race through my charts. But I hope that was helpful. And I appreciate being invited.
Today’s market ghosts, ghouls & goblins: How risk assets can be scary
Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s CIO of Global Fixed Income, explains why Halloween is in October, but Christmas is in December (for markets at least). Mr. Reider also discusses the different “ghouls” that are currently haunting today’s markets, and how investors can build a resilient investment portfolio to protect themselves.
[00:00:00.09] LYENDA DELP: We are going to just get right into the questions very shortly. And I will invite you, as you start to speak, to share anything else you want to share about your background, your impressive backgrounds. But we'll encourage our audience to see the details of your bios in the document that we provided.
[00:00:22.12] So we've just heard from Rick. And over the last 18 plus months, we have all experienced a global pandemic-- the fastest market sell off in history, followed by a powerful economic restart, particularly in the US. I mean, what did Rick say? The equity markets experiencing nirvana. Like, wow. What a strong word. And then, of course, we, as primarily bond investors here in insurance industry land, he's had a lot to say about rates and how low they'll stay for a while yet.
[00:00:58.56] So it's been quite an interesting time. I'd like to start with a fairly broad question. But I think it's important to find out what's most important, and what's most significant, for each of you as you reflect on the 18 plus months that we've had. As a CIO what are you-- what have you taken away as significant in going forward? Vlad, how about I start with you, just because alphabetically you came up first?
[00:01:27.47] VLAD BARBALAT: All right, absolutely. First, Rick is a tough act to follow. So I'll try my best, and I think my co-panelists will do our best. Thanks for having-- thanks for having us. Look, the last 18 months have been dizzying, to put it mildly. There have been many takeaways. I think we'll still have some more takeaways as we walk through time. I don't think this is all done with us just yet.
[00:01:51.67] But what I would say is we were fortunate enough to have been really working to reform our investment process to be one collaborative, but also dynamic. And so I think the reputation we, as insurance company asset managers, typically get is well, we're slow moving, and we're very long term investors, obviously, and so market dislocations, particularly quick ones, are not necessarily our bread and butter. And I think we were fortunate enough to challenge that notion. And we were, in fact, able to be quite nimble when the dislocation happened.
[00:02:31.02] It was not because we certainly had any insight as to what came down and dislocated markets in March of 2020. It was much more about the fact that we were able to communicate across our investment platform, effectively identify the relative value opportunities, and we did end up transacting a lot both, in the public and the private markets taking advantage of the opportunities that were available to us.
[00:02:56.50] So I take all that to say, I think the way the investment process works within an organization that is complex, which includes investments from vanilla CUSIP bonds, to highly structured products, private equity, real estate, et cetera, it requires a certain set of communication channels and ability to act. And I think that is a type of investment process that we're gonna all need to continue to adhere to in the future because markets, whenever they do dislocate, it will be fast.
[00:03:29.78] LYENDA DELP: That's great. Thank you for that. So investment processes-- it was very instrumental and important in the success of your moves during the crisis. Thanks, that's really interesting. Matt how about over to you. What was your perspective?
[00:03:45.20] MATT POZNAR: Sure. Can you hear me?
[00:03:47.00] LYENDA DELP: Yes.
[00:03:47.56] MATT POZNAR: Thank you. Yeah, unfortunately, I'm gonna give a very similar answer to Vlad, but maybe I could put a little different angle on it, or approach. I asked somebody on my team this morning, you know, what was his greatest learning, and they say, “Yeah, buy equities.” But I'll go a little beyond that but-- now the ability to move quickly and to be nimble.
[00:04:07.36] And when I think back to, like, what we actually did, let's say, last year in the first quarter, you know, we've got a very robust risk-- enterprise risk appetite statement and infrastructure where-- very clearly articulated limits and guidelines-- and across the different parts of the business, the general account, as well as our separate account book, and hedging, and all those kinds of things-- liquidity needs across the enterprise.
[00:04:36.14] And so we've got a-- it came from the board on down, right-- the finance committee, the board with established limits. And we kind of know on a daily basis where we stand, relative to those limits. So when-- because the one thing we wanted to make sure, as we were building all of that is, if there was a market opportunity we could spring into action quickly-- to Vlad's point-- and know that we weren't gonna run afoul of those limits.
[00:04:59.05] Or if we were, what would we do? Would we have to get a breach, or waiver? And you know so-- always knowing where we are from enterprise risk perspective. And looking at risk on risk, and stressors, and things like that.
[00:05:11.66] So having a very robust framework, internally, with good analytical tools, both to view our asset portfolio and what might happen as we reformulate it in real time-- kind of ex-ante before we make the investments. But then knowing how the broader enterprise is affected and how much capacity, or room, we really have.
[00:05:29.65] The other piece of that is really having a full range of instruments available. And I think Vlad touched on this as well-- whether it's public or private-- but I would go to cash markets, to the credit markets, derivative markets, credit derivatives, for example, ETFs, and other tools to be able to get market access. Get in and out quickly, or redeploy across different market segments. And other portfolio type strategies like using duration to counterbalance credit risk, et cetera-- things like that.
[00:05:59.30] So having a really good understanding and the ability, either internally or with our partners-- and we do partner with Amy-- that we've got real expertise across a very wide swath of the capital markets to do a lot of different things. And the last point I'll mention-- because this is something we always debate-- dry powder, it ties into the risk and risk capacity.
[00:06:19.42] There's always a running debate. Do you run the portfolio a little hotter I'll call it, just pejoratively, to generate, accumulate greater returns over time, maybe at the risk of when there is a market dislocation, you don't have the capacity to take more? Or do you hold back? And how do you do that?
[00:06:37.79] And again, I don't know that there's a perfect answer to it, but having instruments at our availability that can enable us to be nimble. So whether it's ETFs, or credit, or something like that, and overlay strategy-- if things get bad, if markets do move, you can get out of those quickly and redeploy, let's say, into cash opportunities, which is something we actually were able to do with our investment partners last March of last year. So--
[00:07:03.74] LYENDA DELP: Right. Right. Matt, you gave us a lot to work with there. Thank you. So everything from your robust framework, and your governance, and enterprise risk focus, to being able to deploy across from ETFs all the way to private. So hopefully, we can come back and touch a few of those. Amy, please, what was your big takeaway?
[00:07:25.90] AMY STEPNOWSKI: All right, we've obviously all been thinking about things in a similar manner. I took it in a slightly different approach, but I think, really, coming into the same point that Matt and Vlad spoke to. When I looked to the question, the thing that came to my mind was culture.
[00:07:40.33] Because to the point of being nimble and being proactive, I think, also, when we think about the situation of the last 18 months, it was something that, as much as people may have had business resiliency plans, this was beyond I think what most people would have planned for. And having a culture that could come together, act collaboratively, and trust-- have the level of trust and respect for our colleagues, regardless of what the situation was, allowed us all to be able to act more nimbly, be more proactive, think about things in a way that we hadn't thought about them before, because these were clearly unprecedented times.
[00:08:16.40] So from my perspective, while some of you may have been hoping to hear something more around a specific asset allocation strategy, I think the underlying concept for me, coming out of the last 18 months, really is centered on having the right culture of a firm. Really, a culture of trust and respect and collaboration, I think that's ultimately what's going to lead to the best outcomes.
[00:08:40.23] LYENDA DELP: To be honest, I love that. We just don't hear that often enough. And it's the kind of principles that apply, not just to an investment organization, but any organization, right? Trust and respect and focusing on culture--
[00:08:53.17] So thank you. You surprised us, yes, but we love it. It was a great surprise. So moving along, let's drill down a bit into some of the things that you-- a little more into some of the things that you did.
[00:09:05.70] Let's talk a little bit about income, which obviously is so important for all of us in this industry. And especially the low-low rate environment. What are some of the-- particularly asset allocation, portfolio construction-- like what are some of the big potential changes, or actual changes, that you are thinking about there just to continue to cope in what promises to be low for even longer. Why don't I-- Amy, can I pick on you? Let's have you start this one?
[00:09:38.04] AMY STEPNOWSKI: Sure, happy to. I think-- similar to many of my peers on this call-- given the low rate environment, we are within the risk appetite that the Hartford has. The Hartford is leaning into the private asset classes. We've had a history of being involved in private equity, and real estate, and private placements with a range of private asset classes. And that continues.
[00:10:02.85] Again, I emphasize that, for the Hartford, we look at this within our established risk tolerances and risk appetite. I think one of the things that has evolved over the last 18 months, that we continue to pay a lot of attention to, is, with regard to the retail investor, their influence in public markets has obviously increased over the last 18 months. And we're watching that very carefully because, in my perspective, that's something that's likely to evolve into more in the private markets as well.
[00:10:32.62] And we've certainly seen the added volatility that the retail investor has brought, I think, to the public markets. And so that's a consideration for us as we think about the alternatives and private investments as well.
[00:10:45.30] LYENDA DELP: All right. Very interesting, bringing retail into this. Vlad what do you think?
[00:10:50.81] VLAD BARBALAT: Yeah, look, I think a couple of thoughts. One is, I feel like our industry has finally, maybe, come to terms with the fact that rates are going to be-- likely be quite low. I feel that, prior to 2020, there was a lot of still belief that interest rates would, at some point, quote unquote normalize without really framing what normal really is.
[00:11:17.49] So with that out of the way, and kind of the belief now more anchored about interest rates, in fact, staying low-- I think asset allocation has continued to evolve to find ways to take in risk premia that isn't necessarily just associated with credit risk, but all other forms of risk premia, including complexity risk, structuring risk. And while all that may sound like it's-- well, sure we'll just increase our private asset allocation, there's actually a lot of complexity to that.
[00:11:51.36] And there is a lot of delay, effectively, both in terms of being able to get that-- the right exposure on the book, and then struggling to keep it on the book because that treadmill runs very, very fast. And it requires a holistic alignment of, not just the investment portfolio, but also you're scaling your operating capability, aligning your talent strategy to go source and digest and communicate out the risks that are associated with some of these instruments that are different than traditional kind of CUSIP instruments.
[00:12:23.96] So it's quite an undertaking. Again, we've been fortunate to have had also a very long history in private markets. And we've been on the journey of ensuring that we continue to build the kind of muscle on the platform that is able to go out source and source this kind of exposure.
[00:12:42.81] And so, certainly, our asset allocation reflects the views that, yes interest rates are likely to be very low, yes, public market credit is likely to have a lower beta to kind of broader equity market events than before given kind of what the Fed actions were in 2020, and stepping into credit markets that's going to last leave a lasting imprint. And so, it's a journey. But I think all forms of non-CUSIP credit are going to continue to play an increased role in our portfolios.
[00:13:17.42] LYENDA DELP: Great. Thank you. Matt, I'm going to ask you a slightly different question, because both Amy and Vlad have now brought us solidly into focusing on private markets. So let me turn to you to kind of double click on that area, as they say, and let's talk about how you think-- and potentially compare contrast the risk premia versus, like, the capital efficiency of potential investments when you're looking at the private markets. Give us your views on that part.
[00:13:45.80] MATT POZNAR: Oh sure, so I get the hard one. I can't I can't piggyback on my colleagues. But that's fine. You know, yeah, that's-- to me that's like one of those both type questions, right? In that, can I picked both? Risk premia in this environment, as Amy and Vlad have highlighted, is important finding it, and but capital efficiency is critically important too.
[00:14:11.96] And but you know, and we're always-- whether we're doing our strategic asset allocation or picking individual investments where were seeking to maximize excess return-- loss adjusted, expense adjusted, et cetera. But when I think about it whether it's strategic asset allocation or individual investment decisions, while we're looking to maximize excess return, we're always putting a pretty stringent risk parameter on it.
[00:14:38.03] So it's excess return, but it's excess return for risk. And in that case, it may be defined as excess return volatility because we're super sensitive to volatility. And so that governs it, right? And the other thing we're super sensitive to are risk-based capital under the different regimes, whether it's the [INAUDIBLE] risk-based capital, or the rating agencies, or other jurisdictions.
[00:15:04.13] And so we tend, again, when we're doing strategic or tactical kind of portfolio asset allocation, we almost always have some sort of a risk-based capital budget that we're seeking to live within. So I could say it's-- we're optimizing on risk premia, but it's the capital efficiency that's the anchor.
[00:15:26.72] And even when we're making individual investment decisions in our calculations of comparative returns, we're dealing with expected excess returns, default expense adjusted, but also capital adjusted. So we actually reduce whatever spread or excess return we're gonna get by the cost of capital. So given the exponential scale there, it becomes quite punitive to lower quality, or lower rated, assets which appropriately, right? And so it always acts as a governor.
[00:16:05.30] So my first answer is really that capital efficiency because that's what we're really trying to optimize on. And but that capital adjustment-- I just will add one last point-- it's not just taking the, let's say, the [INAUDIBLE] factors and the rating agency factors against the assets, it's a holistic approach, in that, if you're not getting the yield may cause the actuaries to have the strengthen of reserves. Which means it cycles back through. So again, it's that holistic enterprise view of working into decision making. But I'll pick capital efficiency for that reason.
[00:16:37.46] LYENDA DELP: All right, great. That makes sense. And that is certainly indicative of what we've been seeing-- a significant interest in products that do have that capital-efficient characteristics. So thank you for that. I wanna to change gears a bit because I'm hoping that, in our short time together, we can cover a wide range of topics. Rare that we get the opportunity for such impressive CIOs to join us.
[00:17:03.38] So moving over to sustainability-- and this is important because Charles mentioned, in the opening remarks, our global insurance survey which we'll be releasing in a few weeks. And one of the things that came out of that survey is just the significant focus, much greater focus for insurance investors on sustainability. In fact, we have called the document The Search for Sustainable Yield. So watch for it. It will be coming to an inbox near you pretty soon.
[00:17:33.14] But I'd love to get your views on how you're thinking about ESG in your portfolios. And you know, and how you're beginning to approach and implement. Vlad, can I start with you with this one? We know you've been doing quite a bit in your organization.
[00:17:50.37] VLAD BARBALAT: Yeah, absolutely. Look, I think the topic is obviously all around us. It's swirling, both in markets and in conversations that are not just in the investment portfolio. So I would just bring it back to that, starting with who we are. What is our identity? And our identity is, of course, first and foremost as an insurance company.
[00:18:11.64] And so when we think about ESG, it is very, very much innate in what our product is. It's a social good. And we would certainly want to work towards a world which has addressed, resolved, and improved some of the challenges that we face today, particularly in sustainability.
[00:18:30.61] And so to that end, I think we've been on a journey where defining what the E, the S, and the G mean to us as Liberty Mutual. And then making it practical and working through the various investment opportunities, evaluating them through that lens, while not necessarily being exclusionary, but being aware of certain capital flows that may affect different asset classes. Right?
[00:18:56.47] So that's been, I think, the hard work that we've been doing for quite some time. And, to, it is work that requires investment acumen, but also requires a substantial amount of data. It requires a substantial amount of analytics to be built in coming back to that investment process. And all that is non-trivial.
[00:19:15.46] It requires a substantial investment. It requires understanding how some of these analytics are being created, and how to then utilize them in a way that makes sense and rolls up to what I've kind of said is our interpretation of ESG. And so it is very much with us. It is very much in the investment portfolio. And I expect that we will continue to have an evolution of both the methodologies.
[00:19:41.59] And market orientation around these themes will continue because what we're seeing, partially, in the energy markets now is kind of the clash between the desire to get to a certain place out in the future versus the realities of today and where we are as a society and as an industry today. So I'll just pause there.
[00:20:06.90] LYENDA DELP: Thank you, very interesting. I'm sure we'll be talking about some of those points for a while to come. Amy, let me ask you, what motivates your ESG initiatives? And I'm especially curious, given your answer from earlier, whether your culture has anything to do with that?
[00:20:27.81] AMY STEPNOWSKI: I think similar to some of the comments that Vlad made as he led off-- when you think about the Hartford and you ask me what motivates our ESG initiatives-- I'm speaking specifically to the Hartford-- we have underwritten, as you've heard my leaders at the Hartford say before, we underwrite human achievement, and we've been doing it for over 200 years.
[00:20:47.30] So the idea of ESG, while it has obviously gained stature in terms of the nomenclature, the concepts of ESG have been with us for quite a while. And it's something that's really embredded in the Hartford, and our leadership, and all the employees that work, here I would say. So in terms of motivation, I think it's consistent with the way we've approached business for quite a while.
[00:21:10.66] With regards to the portfolio and how we think about things, again, when we think about the investment portfolio in the context of the Hartford, its purpose, obviously, its objective is to support the claims paying ability of the Hartford and its financial objectives. So obviously that is core to what we do. But we believe that it's very much consistent that we can do that while also being attentive to ESG issues. And it's something that we've been focused on in the scheme of ESG for several years.
[00:21:40.90] And obviously, I think-- very much in agreement with Vlad's points around defining some of these things more specifically, and the importance of data, and harnessing that data to come up with the right conclusion. So, ultimately, I think-- back to your initial question-- it does resonate very much with our focus on culture and is consistent with the company that we have been for such a long time.
[00:22:09.07] LYENDA DELP: Excellent. Excellent. Matt, so tell us about where you are [INAUDIBLE] resolution in your ESG journey. And has anything changed for you in the last 18 plus months while we've been dealing with the global pandemic?
[00:22:25.42] MATT POZNAR: Yeah, so it's interesting. So like with Amy and Vlad and their institutions, ESG is a long journey, and we've all been on it. ESG considerations have long been part of the credit assessment process. And how we act-- Amy brought up culture-- how we act both the inside the four walls of our enterprises as well as in our broader communities.
[00:22:48.85] But we are changing. And my first inclination would say we're at the beginning of the journey. After listening to Vlad and Amy, I'm thinking we're far along because it's been something that's been something we've-- our basic industry, and what we do, and how we operate-- it's been with us. But I gotta say, it's really intensified over these last 18 months or 24 months.
[00:23:10.84] And we are making, kind of, I think, a breakthrough change. And we're at the beginning of that second wave, if you will, or second-step function of the journey. I'll give an example-- diversity, equity inclusion. You know we've always tried to practice good DEI principles with our employee base and in our communities. But as a society, we've become aware of more things over the last couple of years, in particular. Things have intensified.
[00:23:35.80] And so what we did-- about 18 months ago was-- we established a formal diversity, equity, inclusion council. So it's kind of grassroots led but, it's there as a conscious-- consciousness-raising body to keep functional leaders responsible for different aspects of the business, aware that you gotta to keep your eye on DEI. We may not be as good as we want to be or need to be. And we may need to make some changes, right?
[00:24:01.84] And so even on the investment portfolio, I need that DEI counsel pushing me to say, hey Matt, in your investment strategies and philosophies, are you applying the right lens? So-- And if you apply that across [INAUDIBLE]. So we've always practice good D E and I hygiene, if you will, but we've intensified the effort there.
[00:24:20.54] Similarly, in the investment portfolio, ESG factors have always been implicit or explicit in our investment policies and practices. But now we're taking a step function up to be more declarative in what we want to do. And also, and particularly around things like climate change where a lot is changing rapidly, to make sure that we're not just looking at the obvious first derivative type effects, but, let's say, with the energy, or coal miners, or things like that.
[00:24:50.29] But we're looking at our real estate portfolio with a new lens in terms of different risks that could be apparent there, or even into corporate credit, second, third, tertiary effects. So I don't know if that's an overly complicated answer to your question, but we've been along right away. But there has there has been a big step up, I would say.
[00:25:08.87] LYENDA DELP: That's great. Well, we appreciate your sharing a specific example there. So thank you for that. So there are so many topics we would love to discuss with each of you-- with all of you, collectively-- in this forum, but given the tight frame, we're gonna wrap up this last few minutes that we have with some, what I'd call, rapid fire questions. Just questions and a range of different topics. Just the short answer required.
[00:25:34.07] Feel free to make it a wild answer, or not justified too much. But let's have a little fun with it. So my first question is going to be on rates. Because why not? We're long term fixed-income investors. So in what year, if ever, do you think the 10-year, treasury of course, will get to 5%? So OK, I got a hand up.
[00:26:04.67] MATT POZNAR: Leynda, I've been waiting years for someone to ask me a question like that. I gotta to tell you, I actually have a very precise answer to that question. And this is something I learned a few years ago, in terms of rate forcing from Rob Kapito, of all people. And slightly different context, but I'll give a similar styled to answer. And I will tell you the exact time that the 10-year will take a very sudden and precipitous move towards 5%, and that will be the day after I take my portfolio to the max duration. So--
[00:26:36.62] [LAUGHING]
[00:26:38.37] MATT POZNAR: If you didn't like that answer, you can blame Rob. But like I said, I've been waiting several years for that. But yeah, that underscores the challenges of forecasting, right? And we tried to circumvent having to make that call by having a pretty well-matched ALM discipline in our shop.
[00:26:56.51] LYENDA DELP: All right, thank you for that, Matt. That was-- your surprise is probably even bigger than Amy's, but we enjoyed it. The next question-- will usage of bond ETFs rise now that the New York regulator has reviewed it and is considering it for bond consideration? Anybody? Should I pick on someone? Or Vlad or Amy, do you want to take that?
[00:27:23.45] AMY STEPNOWSKI: I think Matt answered it earlier when he talked about capital efficiency. And certainly, that, I think, hits that one on the nail, hits that on the head. So I would expect that it would go up. That and access-- obviously, scale is very important these days as you're trying to access different opportunities. And this is another way that helps with that.
[00:27:45.83] LYENDA DELP: That's great. That's great. All right, Vlad, over to you now. Should crypto currencies be added to asset allocations for insurance general accounts?
[00:27:55.56] VLAD BARBALAT: I should have taken the previous one.
[00:27:56.90] [LAUGHING]
[00:27:59.99] VLAD BARBALAT: Look I think that's a-- I'll give you a nuanced answer. I think, in direct form, I think it may be a little bit early, but we do think that this, the digital asset ecosystem is evolving very rapidly. We think it's here to stay. The regulations that are forthcoming are validating that ecosystem. And so without referring to any specific one of the tokens, or the coins, we do think that this is an industry that is, if you can call it that, that is going to be with us for some time. And so while putting cryptocurrency directly onto the balance sheet may be a stretch too far right now, engaging in that ecosystem, I think, is absolutely important.
[00:28:42.63] LYENDA DELP: All right, great. I have to ask this one, are you long term bullish or bearish on China? I'm sure you all have a view? So who wants to grab this one?
[00:28:54.44] VLAD BARBALAT: I can go again, just to wrap that around. Look, I think I would, sort of, maybe push back the question a little bit and say bullish on what exactly? If we're talking about capital markets, I think that is really going to depend on which way China evolves. I think in the short term, there's substantial skepticism from foreign investors that what we think we're participating in is really anything akin to what we're used to participating in other kind of financial markets.
[00:29:30.57] So I think the Chinese economy is certainly gonna continue to grow. It's undergoing its own challenges right now, and those challenges are not meaningless. But overall, China is gonna continue to be an important component of the global market puzzle. In terms of the Chinese asset markets, I think it continues to be very, very difficult for firms like ourselves to think of that as a place where we're going to allocate very significant amount of capital in the foreseeable future.
[00:30:00.71] LYENDA DELP: Great, thank you. So even though they were fun questions, see they're really significant and important for investors to be thinking about. So I appreciate your thoughtful responses. So I've got one last question. Indulge me in this one. It's a little bit wild. Prepare yourself.
[00:30:16.40] So with Bezos and Musk now enticing us with space travel, right, and probably suggesting we should add it to our bucket list, do you think your firm will one day ensure space-- space trips or space tourism?
[00:30:35.28] AMY STEPNOWSKI: Maybe I'll take a stab at the risk of my insurance colleagues having a view. I would say, I think as everyone is seeing with more driving on the road and higher speeds, we've got a lot of challenges just looking at pricing, personal-- and personal travel here in the US, or commercial travel. So I'm not sure that space is on the agenda any time soon. [INAUDIBLE].
[00:31:01.13] LYENDA DELP: I think that makes a lot of sense.
[00:31:04.54] MATT POZNAR: Just to take the counterpoint point on Amy on that, we're an annuity company, so we will gladly sell annuities to our space travelers.
[00:31:13.63] [LAUGHING]
[00:31:16.21] LYENDA DELP: I love it. Thank you, Matt. And we appreciate all of your comments. And we are just about at the end of our session. I just want to thank you all very much for joining us, for helping to make this a really interesting discussion, for sharing your very thoughtful perspectives.
[00:31:31.72] We are truly grateful. Our goal here at BlackRock is always to be listening to our clients. And this is why this is an important part of the shortened ILS that we have this time. And I think that people would not have been disappointed at all in what you have shared.
Insurance insights: A conversation with CIOs
Lyenda Delp, Head of Client Relationship Management for BlackRock’s Financial Institutions Group Americas, sits down with Amy Stepnowski, CIO, The Hartford and President of HIMCO; Vlad Barbalat, President & CIO, Liberty Mutual Investments; and Matt Poznar, CIO, Talcott Resolution to discuss issues facing insurers such as low interest rates and ESG.
[00:00:00.30] GARGI CHAUDHURI: Good afternoon, everyone. I just hope that everyone can hear me. And, Peter, are you on line as well?
[00:00:06.72] PETER GAILLIOT: I am. And we can hear you very well, Gargi.
[00:00:09.45] GARGI CHAUDHURI: Fantastic. Good afternoon, everyone. Once again, my name is Gargi Pal Chaudhuri. I am the head of iShares investment strategy. And this afternoon, Peter and I are going to be talking a little bit about the US fixed income markets. I know we've heard from the panel. We've heard from Rick. But we hope to spend the next 20 minutes talking about our view on the US fixed income markets.
[00:00:34.41] PETER GAILLIOT: Great. And, for everybody, thanks again for the time this afternoon. It's interesting. You can't start a conversation without starting on inflation and the rates complex here in the US. So with that, Gargi, maybe I'll ask you what the outlook is. A lot of the sell-side forecasts in particular aren't necessarily saying that they were wrong in their forecasts on the transitory nature of inflation. But perhaps they were just a bit early. So maybe we can start there. And you can let us know where we're heading into 2022.
[00:01:08.45] GARGI CHAUDHURI: Right. I love when they say, we were just early and not wrong. But before I go into inflation, I do want to spend a minute to congratulate Peter. He just had a baby daughter, and he's here with us. So congratulations, Peter, from all of us for the addition to your family.
[00:01:25.94] PETER GAILLIOT: Thank you.
[00:01:29.81] GARGI CHAUDHURI: So inflation, I heard this wonderful joke-- or at least I think it was a wonderful joke-- that inflation is transitory the same way as dinosaurs were transitory. So they came around, and they stomped around the Earth for a couple of million years, caused a lot of destruction, and then they were gone. And that's the same sort of nature depending on what you think about the word transitory.
[00:01:53.78] And we're here to say that inflation's actually going to be sustained at a higher level than we saw in the pre-pandemic period. So before the pandemic, we saw inflation-- and when I say inflation, we mean core CPI, of course-- basically staying between that 1 and 1/2% and 2%. And now we've moved up to that 4% level. And we heard from Rick earlier. And he talked a little bit about that discrepancy between goods and services.
[00:02:22.97] And how we think about it easily is the three-prong approach of what drives inflation higher in a sustained fashion. So the first prong of the three-pronged approach is coming from the services part of the economy. And this is where services inflation and shelter inflation in particular-- so shelter meaning what we pay for rent, what we get for mortgaging our home, and what we think that would be worth. So the rent and owner's equivalent rent component of inflation is 40%. And that has not kept up with the housing market, with the acceleration in rent. So we do think the first part of what's going to drive inflation higher is this shelter component.
[00:03:06.17] The second part is very much around the shortage of just not the supply chain but definitely around people-- the labor market, the labor shortages, and the higher wages that are coming forth as the result of that. And that does percolate into certain sectors of the inflation market, especially recreation, goods, and services. And we think those things are going to pick up.
[00:03:31.11] And then the last one is around supply-chain-related items. Those are more transitory than not. Everyone has a story around their supply chain problems and how things are getting to us late or we're not getting to buy things at all because of trucking issues or port issues. Many of those are here to stay, especially in the semiconductor space, I think. And that obviously impacts most of us, many of us. And that is going to drive auto inflation. And that's going to drive goods inflation.
[00:04:02.59] So in terms of numbers, what does that mean? I think that means inflation picks up from the 4% level to a little bit above 5%. And then, for the longer period of time, it comes down from that about 5% level and makes it into the 2 and 1/2% to 3% for the medium term. And I think what that means for the Fed what you guys heard from Rick. I mean, look, we can argue about whether they should have started taper already or not. But they are going to start, or we think they're going to start, tapering their bonds as early or at least announce it next week. And then interest rate hikes will come soon thereafter. But I don't think that the path they're laying out right now or the path that the market is pricing in for the front end can be achieved by December 2023. So certainly higher rates on the long end of the curve makes sense. But the front end gets a little bit tricky.
[00:04:56.21] With that, Peter, I'd love to hear how you're thinking about some of the broader, other macro themes, especially as we enter the last two months of the year. How are you thinking about portfolio construction?
[00:05:09.30] PETER GAILLIOT: Sure. And I think it's really interesting to me about the timing of today's conference and really as we get into the fourth quarter here is we more or less had three central themes guiding us for the last 18 months. We identified post the most acute phase of COVID last spring that we were going to see three recoveries take place. The first would be with financial assets. The second would be in the broader economy. And the third would be in the labor market. And when you go back to mid-2020 and you think about the sequencing, I think it's really amazing that everybody talks about the headline unemployment rate down to 5%. But really, if you look at the U-6 measure, you're from a peak of 23% last year to sub-9% now.
[00:05:55.89] And so when we think about the unprecedented stimulus and coordination between fiscal policy and monetary policy and COVID and what is the outlook going to be as some of that stimulus gets pulled back, I think it's going to create some interesting opportunities. So in addition to inflation, we do think, as noted by Rick, that there will be a deceleration of growth going into 2022. But it still should be sufficient. And it should be supported not just by all of the improvements of the global economy that we've seen to date, but also keeping in mind so much of the stimulus that was put forth last year, as well as this year, has yet to go out the door. And there's obviously always a pretty big lagged effect of a move in interest rates as low as we've seen globally. So we do think growth decelerates. But it's still going to be reasonably strong, both globally and in the US, relative to the pre-COVID trend.
[00:06:52.00] The second point I would make is around liquidity. And Rick had a lot of great slides about it. And as he is always up front, maybe a bit too many slides. But I would just highlight if you look at, to us, the best indicator of risk asset performance post the financial crisis, it's on the flow of liquidity. It's not the stock, but the flow. And you can assign that flow for developed markets, for emerging markets, for equities, fixed income, alternatives. The flow of liquidity has been such a powerful support for risk assets broadly that I think it's really important to take note of the fact that we are probably at a peak in liquidity.
[00:07:28.98] And even though there is a mountain of investors, just a substantial amount of demand that is waiting on the sidelines, it is notable that we are hitting one of those inflection points. And with almost every vol episode we have seen post the financial crisis, it has been preceded by one of these peaks in liquidity. So this isn't to suggest that we expect a material dislocation of markets or an incredible opportunity to present itself to get in at levels akin to where we were even going back to the end of 2020. But it is to suggest that the cushion or the support that we have all seen across asset classes for the last 12 to 18 months is coming down. And as a result, we should expect volatility to pick up.
[00:08:13.62] The third point I'll make is around China. And Rick talked about it. I think it's really healthy that the leadership in China has pivoted away from the focus on direct fiscal stimulus any time there is a slowdown in the domestic economy or the global economy. So that should help smooth the business cycle or the growth impulse or impact coming from China. But it is important to recognize that that transition is being accompanied by this renewed focus on common prosperity and the labor market. And it's been somewhat isolated to date. But I think it's going to be important to recognize how that could have spillover effects, not just in China but versus the dual centers of growth that we're expecting in this post-COVID world, one centered around North America in one centered around China.
[00:09:00.93] And the final point I'll make is something that I think is relevant to the discussion on inflation. It's relative to the discussion on the growth impulses that we can expect in the years to come. And that's on the transition to the green economy. There should be a massive amount of investment opportunities to participate in that transition. But if the transition is not done in a very comprehensive and integrated fashion I think we're going to see more inflationary surges akin to what's taken place this year and what we're expecting into the winter. So there's been a lot of focus on the price of gas in Europe ahead of the winter months. There's a lot of focus on the price of oil here in the US. I do think it's really important to recognize what the impact of that transition could be and how there is the potential for it to be more inflationary if it's not done in a comprehensive fashion.
[00:09:55.35] So what does that mean for portfolios? I think on a headline level for the fixed income portfolios is we continue to pull back on generic beta. When you look at markets today-- and if you just want to use the US corporate Bond market as a proxy-- it's traded on a 10 basis point range for the last six months. We still see a lot of opportunity in emerging markets. And I would say when you look at the ability of certain regions or countries to adapt to all the peaks and valleys related to COVID and the lockdowns and the reopenings and what that might mean going forward, it does present opportunities across the emerging market complex. Securitized assets are still a core holding and one we look to continue to build, including some floating rate products, in light of the fact that we are in a global tightening cycle. Take a look at what the Bank of Canada did today.
[00:10:47.24] And then also I would say, in terms of the public corporate markets, we are expecting a wave of upgrades to investment grade from high yield. So the rising star cycle that is likely to take place over the next 12 to 18 months, yes, a lot of value has been taken out of those names. But we do still think that there is sufficient compression available. And then I know that it's not necessarily the focus of this conversation on US fixed income, but I would say, outside of fixed income, if you're looking for capital efficient strategies, I would still say you look to direct lending. You look to Infradebt. You look to real estate mezz opportunities and select private credit opportunities.
[00:11:27.74] So that's how we're thinking about portfolios today. Hopeful that there are some opportunities to get back into quality assets. As we're seeing today, we're able to get back into them at attractive absolute yield levels. And I think that there could be more opportunities going forward. So with that, let me turn it back to you to just discuss a little bit not just the flows that we've seen outright but specific to ETFs here in fixed income.
[00:11:53.88] GARGI CHAUDHURI: Sure. Thanks, Peter. Lots of interesting details there. And I think one of the points that you made was around cash on the sidelines. And I know I was listening to the panel earlier, and that point was made as well. And I think that ties in really well with the huge year that this has been for flows across the industry, but certainly in the ETF industry.
[00:12:16.35] And as we sit now at the end of October, we're about $670 billion worth of flows year-to-date. Compare that to about $486 billion in 2020. And that's across all asset classes. But looking at fixed income specifically, I must say it's been amazing how stable flows have been despite the move higher in interest rates, obviously notwithstanding today's rate move, so about $163 billion in fixed income flows. And I think what's interesting is the composition of that. We've spent a lot of time over the last two or one hour speaking about inflation. And that has shown up in flows. When we look at that $163 billion in fixed income, a majority of that or about close to 50% of that went into inflation-linked products. And I think that's very telling in terms of what investors want to do.
[00:13:14.34] The other big area where investors put their focus on was broad multisector. And that makes sense to all of us. Obviously, we want that for our equity hedge. And I think it's important to note what happened in 2020. I know that feels like a distant dream. But I think it changed things for the ETF industry in a meaningful fashion, And I think especially for our audience here with US insurers who did look at 2020 as an opportunity and increased their ETF holdings by almost 20% to about $40 billion. And much of that was in fixed income ETFs.
[00:13:50.34] And we ask ourselves why that happened. Why did that happen in 2020 and continuing on? And I would say the first one is around just taking the advantage of higher spread or wider spred levels and higher yield levels to get into [? IG ?] credit. And that's been the biggest use case. But I'd also say-- and, Peter, this ties back to your point and also to the point earlier from the previous panel around just taking on or needing to take on more liquidity risk in an environment of just lower for longer and longer and longer-- and perhaps insurers are using this opportunity in fixed income ETFs to offset that illiquidity risk with some really liquid fixed income ETFs. So that's been another source, so really that pick up in the use of ETFs for the liquidity sleeve.
[00:14:44.82] And then I would say that another more recent thing-- and, again, this was talked about at the panel as well. But in case you missed it, over the last few weeks, we've seen this important step taken by New York regulators to bring the treatment of bond ETFs much more in line with the underlying. And I think that's been meaningful. And I think that's going to be a continued driver of using fixed income ETFs by this insurance community. Lastly, Peter, I think a really important trend that's happening right now is within the fixed income ESG sustainable suite of ETFs. Interesting and exciting day for us. We just crossed over $4 billion in AUM. That's up about 79% from the last year. And this is, again, talking about our fixed income sustainable suite of ETFs. And that's exciting. And there's a lot of exciting products in the pipeline as well.
[00:15:36.21] But I'd love to ask you, especially when we see this incredible growth in fixed income sustainable suite, especially from last year but even two years ago-- it's up over 10 times-- how are you thinking about that? How you thinking about incorporating ESG into your portfolios?
[00:15:54.93] PETER GAILLIOT: I mean, it's interesting. I would say it's probably top three in terms of the most popular discussions with clients. And what I would say is the following. Number one, the growth of the space has been so important to be able to build diversified strategies across not just different regions but different asset classes, different currencies. The fact that we're now well through a trillion in issuance of green social and sustainable bonds has been really important. What we've done as a group and as a firm really is incorporated the ESG component of analyzing securities-- whether it be corporate bonds, municipals, emerging market assets, securitized assets-- in the same manner in which we do for the traditional credit metrics or rating agencies.
[00:16:45.09] And so when we think about it, it's not the type of process and it wouldn't be comprehensive if we were just looking at exclusionary screens. We've also adapted our process through the credit research platform internally embedded in Aladdin. So we can access the data real time to see a watch list across all of the holdings in a portfolio and looking at it not just on the ESG metrics that a third-party provider might assign but what the BlackRock research analysts provide because I do think it's important to recognize that ESG is in its infancy. With the major credit rating agencies, we have over 100 years worth of data analyzing the impact and the potential volatility of those ratings through credit cycles, through economic cycles. So it's really important for us to embed it fully in our system at all points, whether it be new issues, secondary, getting the updates from the analysts, and embedding it into our watch list process. And so what it does is it allows us to identify those industries and companies that are really well prepared for this transition as well as those that are not.
[00:17:48.81] And in terms of recent developments, being able to get or having the availability of carbon intensity data has really allowed us to get much more granular in terms of putting together strategies for clients that focus on carbon reduction and the intensity of their portfolios. So it's been a great journey to date. But I know-- and I know it as part of the prior panel discussion-- it's a journey that I think many would argue we are still in the early innings of. So a lot done, but still a lot to go.
[00:18:23.97] GARGI CHAUDHURI: Awesome. We have about three minutes left. And Peter and I thought that it would be fun to do a few rapid-fire questions for each of our views on certain market topics. So, Peter, what do you think is the most overpriced risk in the market right now? One second answer.
[00:18:48.28] PETER GAILLIOT: Admittedly not an expert but I will say crypto. And I just think as you transition from an unregulated industry to a regulated industry, there should be some volatility along that journey. So I'll go with crypto to start.
[00:19:02.58] GARGI CHAUDHURI: OK. I'll go with supply chain. Anything related to people that believe that the supply chain stories will never go away, I think that's overpriced. I think, yes, there are issues. But it's going to all die down in the next six months, especially those that are related to transportation or logistical issues. I think there's a six-month window.
[00:19:23.70] What is the most underpriced risk in the market, Peter?
[00:19:28.77] PETER GAILLIOT: For underpriced risks, I'll continue to point out the liquidity paradigm. And despite the amount of focus on this, I do think it's important to just recognize how liquidity has impacted every asset class. And I'll even think back to where we were a year ago. As we got through the elections here and we were looking at different asset classes and opportunities, so many of the investment teams internally that were constructive in hindsight was a great call to be constructive on their asset class. The core of the investment thesis, one of the two or three pillars, was liquidity and that assumption that the liquidity wave would continue. So I think that's something to really be mindful of here. What about you, Gargi? What do you think is the most underpriced risk today?
[00:20:11.86] GARGI CHAUDHURI: I think it's something to do with the Fed and policy errors. And what I mean there isn't around interest rates at all. But I mean the view that not very many people are taking into effect that we're going to have a whole new or at least 7 of the 19 FOMC members are going to turn over in 2022. We might even have a new Fed chair. And sometimes when you have that kind of turnover, that does lead to communication issues. We all remember to 2018 when Chair Powell said, we will go well past neutral. And two-year notes went to 3%. We all wish we'd bought some in RPA. So anything related to policy error.
[00:20:53.62] We're coming up on time. Last one. Best COVID hobby, Peter?
[00:20:59.11] PETER GAILLIOT: I grew up very allergic to dogs. And my family bought a COVID dog. So I would say best COVID hobby has been discovering a lot of dog parks and learning a lot about taking care of dogs. How about yourself?
[00:21:12.25] GARGI CHAUDHURI: I learned how to cook because I didn't know how to. And we had to learn because of COVID. So cooking and the second one was Sudoku. Took up Sudoku puzzles. Love it. So with that, I would say thank you to all of you for joining. We had fun. I hope you did too. We will now hear from a CEO fireside chat between BlackRock chief client officer Mark McCombe and CEO and president of Guardian Life Andrew McMahon. Thank you.
Navigating fixed income markets in the new normal
Peter Gailliot, Global CIO of the Financial Institutions Group (FIG) and Head of Fixed Income FIG Portfolio Management, BlackRock and Gargi Pal Chaudhuri, Head of iShares Investment Strategy Americas, BlackRock give a market review of 2021 and an outlook for 2022.
[00:00:00.15] MARK MCCOMBE: Andrew, great pleasure to see you. Thank you for joining us for the Insurance Leaders Symposium. Now, your backdrop looks a little bit different. I've actually been to the Guardian office. And I know that you guys are all getting back to work in Hudson Yards, where we'll be your neighbors shortly. But where are you calling in from today?
[00:00:21.57] ANDREW MCMAHON: Thank you. Thank you, Mark. It's a pleasure to be here today. I'm calling in from my home office, which over the course of the last 18 months I found the studio lighting at home is better than the lighting in my office, office in Hudson Yards. So here's where I'm from.
[00:00:35.62] MARK MCCOMBE: You're looking great. So thank you, again, for joining us for this. We always have a CEO as our keynote. And we're thrilled that you would join, and obviously there's a lot been going on. This is our second year, I guess, in lockdown and with the pandemic. And dealing with it.
[00:00:55.59] And there's a lot been going on over the last 18 months that I'd love to unpick with you. Let's just start at a very macro level. As we think about the industry, and we think about some of the forces shaping the industry both short term and long term-- Obviously, we've been seeing a lot of M&A activity across the life industry and more broadly. From your seat, what do you see as the major drivers across the industry over the next few months and years?
[00:01:25.69] ANDREW MCMAHON: Yeah. So very important question, and critical question, for many of us dealing with the trends, what we've been seeing. As I reflect on what we're seeing today-- For those of us who've been in the industry 25, 30-some-odd years-- We go back pre-financial crisis, the last crisis in 2008, and there was really a war on what, I would call, product feature functionality.
[00:01:55.08] And how everybody could up one another on product feature functionality. I mean since the financial crisis in '08, we saw low yields. We've seen low yields since then. It's been a lot more of capital light products, capital light services. How do we make our products more efficient? How do we optimize yield?
[00:02:17.19] And then, most recently, in some of the trends here now have been accelerated with the pandemic. You know, war for talent. And that talent being anywhere from investing talent, to data and analytics talent, to technology talent. I think over that same period of time, we've seen consumers' preferences change driven much by technology, driven by the Amazons of the world, and so forth.
[00:02:39.75] The consumers' expectations of being ready now and instantaneous. And delivery how they want it. And service how they want it and very quickly. Then the pandemic on top of that, I think, accelerated that. But also accelerated awareness for our products and an awareness for wellness and health overall.
[00:03:00.91] And so there's a lot of things going on. I think the hunt for yield has created a convergence between life insurance and alternative asset managers, and really trying to optimize portfolio yields in this environment that we're in.
[00:03:15.87] We have a lot of capital, both in private equity side, but then also venture capital. Which I think are stirring, poking business models quite a bit, which makes it an exciting time. And I think a great time for incumbents to take advantage of their incumbent status by being nimble, being faster, being quicker. And that's what we've been trying to do at Guardian, as you know, Mark.
[00:03:40.62] MARK MCCOMBE: Thanks for that. And let's kind of double-click a little bit on some of the things you talked about. And you talked about this transformation. I liked your term. From sort of product feature and functionality to a much more dynamic industry. I wonder, again, as a mutual you could share a little bit, your observations on what's happening within the sort of M&A and private equity space.
[00:04:00.66] Because clearly, historically where you could compete on those three verticals, now you have to think about all kinds of different competitive environments. And so forth. So as you think about that, what would you say the industry has to do to stay competitive and relevant? I guess, against some of these disruptors.
[00:04:23.07] ANDREW MCMAHON: Yeah. I think, as I mentioned, yield is obviously one dimension here that we have to be competitive on. And that competitiveness has evolved over the last 15 years, in particularly. But beyond yield, consumer interests, and those interests today around ESG, around digital--
[00:04:47.90] And are we, as insurers, interacting with consumers on what I would call, and categorize, as on a contemporary basis? And what does that engagement look like? If you go back 50, a 100 years-- Guardian the 161-year-old company, we go back all the way to the origins of this. While always a noble purpose around insurance, these were relationships driven from agents.
[00:05:14.27] Giving a product which was much more transactional in nature. Collecting premiums, giving a policy, collecting premiums over the way but less so holistic. And I think in this day and age, in order to compete the entire industry needs to be more digitally enabled. And we've made lots of progress in the last 10 years. But I think there's lots, lots more room to go.
[00:05:34.64] I think scale is really important. Cost efficiency is really important. And because of the pressures on yield, those become even more important. And I think in order to get there, the biggest lever here, to help all of us, is around attraction and retention of talent.
[00:05:54.44] And while I think our industry is one of the most complicated and challenging ones, which would attract lots of great, great talent, I think it's been a struggle for many, many firms, actually, to attract, what I'll call, contemporary talent. Contemporary thinking and training as it comes to digital, and artificial intelligence, and machine learning. And even investing for that matter.
[00:06:19.74] MARK MCCOMBE: We've touched on a couple of areas that I want to come back to a little bit later. But let's jump to this term, or this concept, of digital transformation. I know that you've actually been very involved in a lot of digital initiatives and insurer tech initiatives over your career.
[00:06:38.58] Can you just paint a little bit of a picture for the audience on what does it really mean digital transformation, in the insurance industry? And what do you think are the trends that we should be looking out for? Both from the sort of, as you say InsurTech, side of things as well as actually modernizing and making the industry more efficient as the war for talent obviously increases dramatically.
[00:07:04.28] ANDREW MCMAHON: Yeah. So I often like to think back and reflect on the basic fundamental aspects of an environment, or situation, or business or whatever. If we fundamentally reflect on what is the basis of insurance, and what we do every day as insurers, right.
[00:07:26.27] It's a massive amount of data that we ingest. We underwrite. We assess a risk for. We create a product for. We then manage assets against that liability for a long period of time. Lots and lots of pieces of data. Data being the fundamental aspect and component of digital. And our industry has been, for a long time and there's lots of people in particular that Venture pointed out, very analog.
[00:07:55.31] For me the trend here is digitization of that. How do we best ingest, find, ingest data? Drive insights from that to really create innovative new product, serve consumers better. But then also to automate things that are being done manually, analog today that take a lot longer time. So, an example I've used often over the years-- and it hasn't really changed that much dramatically, other than in the last years of pandemic-- has been around underwriting.
[00:08:26.66] And life and mortality underwriting that on average in the industry has been about 32 days. On average that we spend, as an industry, $10 billion on underwriting mortality. And it's an analog, lots of paper based, between attending physician statements and so forth, application data, questionnaires, et cetera that get along and gets scored.
[00:08:47.91] In some respects-- again, my view on this has gone back 10 or 15 years-- it should be entirely digital. It should be entirely fast with electronic medical records and all of these things. And automated so that we reduce the cost of underwriting. We in turn reduce, hopefully, the price of the products.
[00:09:07.01] We can access more people that we aren't accessing today because of either the agent network. Or the advisor network that we have is not out there. And that the industry can then provide more of the service, which I think is a really important service of products. And services that we offer the public today but is not reaching everybody.
[00:09:28.79] Again, for lots of different reasons and maybe people aren't even interested in it. But I think the pandemic has accelerated some of those things. The pandemic has certainly is accelerated the uses of digital data. In order to automate underwriting more, to make faster decisions, the pandemic has accelerated less use of paper. I'm sure at BlackRock as well--
[00:09:48.53] I mean, I have not really printed very much in the last 18 months whatsoever. We're finding consumers are embracing that. Rather than getting things on large pieces of glossy paper, the digital interactions with them is creating a much more fruitful relationship that we see. And I think that's here to say. And that's not going away.
[00:10:13.21] MARK MCCOMBE: Yeah. I think I would agree with you. The digital transformation was underway well before the pandemic. But I think it has definitely accelerated it. Another trend that's accelerating-- and we're just a couple of days away from the COP26 gathering, which I think will shine a light on exactly where we are in terms of sustainability and climate change.
[00:10:38.47] I know that you've been thinking a lot about ESG and sustainability. I wonder if you could just take a step back. And share your thoughts on your approach, both in terms of communication with your clients but obviously then your investment portfolio. And how you've been thinking about it. And any observations as this obviously is a pretty long journey, and one where we're still in the early innings.
[00:11:07.33] ANDREW MCMAHON: Sure. Yes sustainability-- I mean ESG as a total-- what a critical, important topic for us all to be addressing today and beyond. Like many at Guardian, we have what we'll call an ESG factors and consideration on our investment portfolio. We both do that on investment selection. But then also on portfolio review over time.
[00:11:34.01] And I think it is really critically important here, as we see the effects on climate and the world. What I've been really moved by, and I think has got our teams quite engaged-- again silver lining of the pandemic here --is about what our environmental footprint at Guardian looks like during the pandemic.
[00:11:58.48] And how much we actually had an impact on doing stuff. Now maybe some of that was forced on us. So for instance, closing offices. Not using as much electricity. Not using as much natural gas. Not using as much water. And as I've already mentioned, about printing paper. But when you actually quantify that and look at how much we actually reduced those things in our footprint over last year.
[00:12:21.52] If I just took last year, 3.8 million kilowatts of electricity reduction, 56,000 therms of natural gas, 2.2 million gallons of water. And we printed 11.4 million less pieces of paper than we did in the previous year. And if you look at the impact of that, Guardian just one small company here around the world. And again, a different dynamic with the pandemic and being forced upon us and to really change.
[00:12:52.72] But we had that ability to adapt and change. We have that ability, still. Those 11.4 million pieces of paper that we previously had printed on, we were able to still deliver those same messages in a different way. And I think sustainability takes all of us to take a hard look at how can we effect these changes. And knowing that, by the way, it all adds up and starts to be big numbers after a while.
[00:13:18.25] And I think as we all commit to this, it's important for us as a world, as a country, as industries to commit to this even more than we have.
[00:13:30.27] MARK MCCOMBE: Thank you, Andrew. I do want to turn a little bit to what you're dealing with. What we're all dealing with on a day-to-day basis. But the kind of intersection of our social purpose as organizations and our responsibility as employers-- Again, we're just a few days away at BlackRock from introducing our pilot return to work, where we're introducing a three day, two day hybrid model.
[00:14:00.09] And I think we're all looking at this scarcity of talent that we've been facing, not just as a financial services industry, but more broadly. Give us a little bit of perspective from your seat, as to how you've been thinking through the return to work over the short term.
[00:14:20.22] But then also how are you going to continue to attract the best and brightest to come into the industry? And what would be your advice to some of the participants here as to how we ensure that financial services, and insurance in particular, remains a very attractive career for young folks?
[00:14:41.64] ANDREW MCMAHON: Sure. This is a topic that I'm very passionate about as you might know, Mark Let's first talk about return to office. Or return to whatever the new normal, I guess, is. So we, like BlackRock, is in a similar camp here with likely a three-two hybrid-type model for many of our folks.
[00:15:08.91] I would say we, meaning Guardian, learned back during Hurricane Sandy-- we were displaced from our offices in N.O. We were displaced from our offices downtown New York for nine months. Basically overnight, over the weekend, and we're out of that office for almost nine months. So we found ourselves in a position of being dislocated from our main office, and really our hub of doing business for nine months.
[00:15:39.54] Back then-- again, that's just about like it's 10 years ago right about now-- we put in place a bunch of infrastructure to be able to work remotely. And we adopted-- post-coming-out of that nine months of scattering around to different office space, and so forth. Scouting out to starting working remote back then.
[00:16:02.58] And while it was probably more of a four-one model and sometimes three. And sometimes two to three model. We had already had some experience in remote work. I would say the one learnings that we had was we really realized that when we're together, there's certain innovations and creativity that come out working together in the same office.
[00:16:26.94] Now, we also know there's lots of tasks that we each have every day that's, what I call, heads down work. That we've got to put pen to paper. We need some quiet time. And those things work for people. In flexibility of working from home or a quiet office somewhere, wherever they chose to go. And that worked.
[00:16:46.65] Where I think we probably could have done better, there was not that many rules on which days you're in the office, not in the office. And how do we track when we were in the office. So at times, I would come in the office. The people I was looking for were not in the office. So we're building and learning from that to really schedule those times in days, to put more transparency to understand who's going to be in the office, when.
[00:17:08.25] So then we could also, not necessarily for a formal meeting, but to start to really predict when do we create those informal interactions in person that creates that spark, and that magic, and that innovation that comes out. And that comes out to new things that help our clients and help everybody better. So that's where we're at. We've decided-- Our offices are open now.
[00:17:37.26] We require vaccines to be back in the office right now. We don't require you to be back in the office three days a week yet. We will do that starting in January, January 18. And we'll start to roll out some of those details in the next coming days. But we're telling people that to give them a little bit time and flexibility.
[00:17:58.74] But I will be totally honest with you, I have been in the office three to four days-a-week now for the last several. It's refreshing to be back. There's certain aspects to it that you really forget and miss. And while lots of people don't like the commute, I've actually had many people say you know what? I forgot about all that time that I used to read, to catch up, to relax, to take a nap on a train, or whatever it is that people go back.
[00:18:22.17] I think we're in for a new normal going forward with this balancing act. How to best balance the flexibility in people's lives for the talent attraction, but also the talent development. And I've said, oftentimes, I don't think, my own personal development, I would be what I am today. Or the experience I've had if I didn't have lots of people that I sat next to in meetings.
[00:18:47.09] I sat next to in presentations. I was in a boardroom with seeing, even if I wasn't presenting, somebody else presenting. The goods, and the bads, and the puts, and the takes of that shaped each who we are and our experiences. And frankly, it's also that fabric that I think bonds our companies' teams closer together. And that is hard.
[00:19:07.48] While I appreciate doing this on this platform right now, I think there are some advantages. That you could be on the West Coast. I can be on the East Coast. You and I could still have a very meaningful interaction. But I do think when you and I have lunch or dinner together. There's a different level of that interaction. There's different things in granularity that come out of that.
[00:19:26.25] So the second part of your question, let me address around talent attraction, a talent development or retention. I mean, I listen I'm a little biased here, being in the life insurance industry. Again, I think it's such a-- Somebody recently asked me when did you know that you're going to your life insurance industry. I said oh, when I was a little kid I said oh I can't wait to be, I want to be in life insurance.
[00:19:51.86] And that's a bit of a joke. So people like start laughing when I say that. The humor in that is, for me, there's not a lot of people you find to say oh I just woke up. And coming out of school, I want to be in the life insurance industry. However, if you look at what our industry does, if you look at the complexity of our industry, and how we deal-- Between regulation, between product design, actuarial science, long term forecasting, matching long duration assets and liabilities--
[00:20:24.23] The dynamics of all that goes on. And then policyholder behavior in there, and trying to predict human behavior over the course of 20 or 30 years, right? That complexity, the good it provides, plus the complexity for me it's an ideal, ideal platform for really intellectually curious people. Really smart people. People who like solving problems. People who like doing good. And it matches with that all.
[00:20:49.35] And so for me, there's no reason. I just don't think we've done, as an industry, we've done that good a job of educating. And unfortunately, lots of people may have negative connotations. Or saying wow this seems like a boring old bureaucratic industry to me, so why would I want to work in that? But again as you get steeped in it, know it, to me, I couldn't ask for a better challenge. And a better industry to be aligned and associated with it.
[00:21:19.22] MARK MCCOMBE: I think when you marry it with some of the initial tech, developments that we talked about earlier on, I think you can see that it's an industry that still has a lot of appeal. And as you say, real relevance in society, particularly as we move forward. For us talking about things like the retirement crisis, and so forth, that's where the insurance and asset management industries really come together. And can offer innovation that actually, hopefully, can help folks' lives be better in retirement.
[00:21:51.03] So I agree with that. One sub-question on talent. Obviously, the insurance industry hasn't always been at the cutting edge of bringing diversity into its ranks. But I know it's been a big focus for you. Can you share a few of your observations or strategies that you're adopting to broaden out the inclusion within the insurance sector?
[00:22:15.20] ANDREW MCMAHON: Yeah, sure. I am an enormous believer in that the best ideas and the best solutions to problems come from a diverse perspective and diverse teams. So while I wholeheartedly believe in it for equality purposes and so forth, it's also great business practice. And I think we're going to get a much better answer, a better run company, with much diverse teams.
[00:22:44.63] And as you pointed out, yes, I think our industry has been behind on diversity for whatever reasons that existed there. Back to even sustainability, on diversity there's a lot we can do. And as we've all recognized, you get what you measure. And so we've started measuring lots of this And we've started putting people's goals.
[00:23:06.02] And so for instance, we mandate diverse slates on every job hiring. And so until we have a diverse slate, you can't proceed. We're holding people to the fire on that. We're holding people to it in their performance reviews. And the idea is really creating, again not just diversity numbers for the sake of diversity numbers, but creating an environment, a culture, a platform of business where people feel comfortable. They feel included. They feel valued.
[00:23:40.70] And they bring that diverse background and perspective to the problem solving to shape it differently. And we know that answer will be better than we could do without a diverse set. And this includes using diverse suppliers for things. And again, we're measuring how many diverse suppliers we've been using in the past.
[00:23:59.12] What are we doing today? And whose goal is that going? Unconscious bias training, diversity training, we've been doing lots of inclusion training. There's lots of things, as we do some of this training, people walk away from the training culturally, and not even realize they had an unconscious bias for something. And none of us, I think deep down, nobody wants to admit if they have a bias.
[00:24:25.13] And many of us can't even see our own unconscious bias. But I think that training is critically important for us to bring out awareness of where we may be falling short and not even knowing it. And so that's what we've been really focused on the last couple of years. And we're starting to see good rewards in it. And we're being recognized by some outside organizations now on the track record that we're developing and building.
[00:24:51.17] MARK MCCOMBE: Appreciate that, Andrew. We're coming up on time. And I just I have one more question that maybe is a bit off left field from the conversation we've just had. A couple of weeks ago now, we were together in the IMF with an awful lot of central bank governors.
[00:25:09.80] You can imagine when you get a collection of central bank governors together that topic number one, two, and three was inflation. And so I guess my final question for you is what is on your mind about 2022? What are you worrying about? What are you what are you focused on? And to what degree is the debate about inflation part of the conversation and narrative that you're having in thinking about your strategy going forward?
[00:25:40.50] ANDREW MCMAHON: Yeah. Mark, I guess if I was an economist I'd start with, on this hand and then on this hand. I would weigh the different things. The inflation topic obviously, is a really important topic. I think dovetailing with that topic is also sustainability. And as we see supply chain challenges and issues here in the United States, cargo ships all backed up outside all many of our harbors right now.
[00:26:09.07] And I think if we think back to the pandemic, the sustainability even of-- as we look at pharmaceutical drugs that we're dependent on other countries for to get here. We look at PPE, equipment for people during the pandemic, and masks, and so forth and so on.
[00:26:29.08] I think sustainability is first then inflation on top of that. And so are we seeing this supply chain challenge an issue. Will we see more of this going forward, as we hopefully emerge from this pandemic?
[00:26:45.26] However emergence looks like. With going back to those sustainability pieces and does that actually make-- the inflation we're seeing now being argued as transitory, a more permanent inflation thing. That is what we're talking about inside. And that's what we're trying to understand, certainly from an investing perspective of our general account. On one hand, I don't worry about it. On the other hand, I worry extremely about it as the economist would say.
[00:27:17.48] MARK MCCOMBE: Well, I would say as a CEO that's probably the right approach. To be worried about it but obviously, much is the debate of BlackRock, the degree to which it becomes more permanent. And then what impact it has on asset prices, I think, is something we're spending a lot of time on, as I'm sure the industry is.
[00:27:35.26] Andrew, this has been a huge pleasure. First, it's been great to get to know you over the past couple of years and since you took on the role at Guardian. And I know you have a lot of really great ideas for the firm. And so it's just been a pleasure to get to know you and your team. I want to thank you for taking the time today to talk to us. I really look forward to staying close, and hopefully, next year we may be able to do this in person, if we're very lucky.
[00:28:07.30] ANDREW MCMAHON: Absolutely, Mark. Thank you very much. I appreciate the time. I'm really excited with the partnership that we have with BlackRock. And I appreciate all of you and your team's help as we continue to go forward. I'm really excited about the future for all of us and the industry. So thank you.
[00:28:23.62] MARK MCCOMBE: All right. Well, this draws to a close our Insurance Leaders Symposium for 2021. I, for one, had money absolutely on us doing this in person. But in the interest of optimizing attendance and optimizing safety, I think we decided to go with this virtual event again. But I think it's been a huge success and great conversation.
[00:28:48.98] So I'd just like to say thank you to all of the people who attended. We look forward to seeing you in person. As you heard from me earlier, we will be back in the office starting at the beginning of November. And so, look forward to welcoming you back and spending more time together. Thank you and on behalf of everyone at BlackRock, all the organizers, we hope you have a very enjoyable evening and heading into the weekend.
CEO Fireside Chat
Mark McCombe, BlackRock’s Chief Client Officer has a one-on-one interview with Andrew McMahon, Chief Executive Offer and President of The Guardian Life Insurance Company of America (Guardian) to discuss a variety of topics, such as market drivers, insurtech, ESG, and market concerns for 2022.
Global Insurance Report 2021: Insurers embrace risk
