Global Credit Weekly

The signals from M&A

June 13, 2025 | Amanda Lynam, Dominique Bly

Key takeaways

  • Against a dynamic investing backdrop, the tone from corporate management teams has been closely followed by a wide range of market participants and policymakers (as outlined in the Federal Reserve’s most recent Beige Book). Beyond the well telegraphed link between profit margins and labor market conditions, firms’ appetite for M&A activity can be interpreted as another barometer of corporate confidence.
  • At the start of 2025, there was considerable optimism related to a potential acceleration in mergers and acquisition (M&A) activity, as well as broader capital markets transactions such as IPOs. This has since given way to a more negative tone in recent months, with many citing policy and macroeconomic uncertainty as a reason to expect subdued M&A volumes.
  • In this Global Credit Weekly, we take stock of the granular M&A data from a range of sources that we track – for both strategic and sponsor-related transactions. In general, we find a somewhat more constructive backdrop in terms of recent deal volumes vs. what headlines might suggest – similar to the theme we last flagged in March.
  • That said, a few notable themes from year-to-date activity are visible from the granular data. First, strategic acquisitions from European acquirers are running well above the historical trend – boosted by Financials and Healthcare (among other sectors). Second, the financing mix for strategic M&A has not been friendly for bondholders, with an elevated share of cash/debt funded deals. Third, private equity (PE) exit volumes are showing signs of a recovery, but this has been driven by the largest deals and hasn’t yet broadened. Fourth, vintage level dispersion in sponsor-related transactions persists.

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Authors

Amanda Lynam, CPA
Head of Macro Credit Research, Portfolio Management Group
Amanda Lynam, CPA, is Head of Macro Credit Research within the Portfolio Management Group. In this capacity, Amanda leads a team that generates differentiated investment strategy research across global fixed income, liquid corporate credit (IG, HY, leveraged loans) and alternative asset (private credit, real estate) markets.
Dominique Bly
Macro Credit Research Strategist, Portfolio Management Group
Dominique is a Macro Credit Research Strategist. Prior to joining BlackRock, Dominique was an Investor Relations professional at Neuberger Berman, specializing in Private Debt, and a Consultant at Accenture. Dominique received a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration from UC Berkeley Haas.

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