Asset		Tactical view	Commentary
Developed markets
United States			We are overweight. Contained damage to global growth from the Mideast conflict and strong earnings expectations – particularly in tech – keep us risk-on.
Europe			We are neutral. We are neutral. Europe’s high exposure to the energy shock from the Mideast conflict makes it vulnerable to higher inflation and lower growth.
UK			We are neutral. Valuations remain attractive relative to the US, but we see few near-term catalysts to trigger a shift.
Japan			We are neutral. Japan’s exposure to imported energy may erode strong equity gains powered by healthy corporate balance sheets and governance reforms.
Emerging markets (EM)			We are overweight yet stay selective. We favor Asian countries that manufacture critical AI components and Latin American energy and commodity exporters.
China			We are neutral. Trade relations with the US have steadied, but property stress and an aging population still constrain the macro outlook. Relatively resilient activity limits near-term policy urgency. We like sectors like AI, automation and power generation.
Fixed income
Short US Treasuries			We are neutral. Shorter-term bonds are relatively attractive as the market has woken up to persistent inflation and higher rates.
Long US Treasuries			We are underweight. Yields already faced upward pressure from rising term premia, as investors demand more compensation for the risk of holding long-term debt. The recent energy price shock compounds this by aggravating pre-existing inflationary pressures.
Global inflation-linked bonds			We are neutral. We think inflation will settle above pre-pandemic levels, but markets may not price this in the near term as growth cools.
Euro area government bonds			We go neutral short-term European government bonds. The market has repriced the ECB policy path more in line with our view. We think increased German bond issuance to finance its fiscal stimulus package is already largely reflected in the current level of 10-year yields.
UK Gilts			We are neutral. The recent budget aims to shore up market confidence through fiscal consolidation. But deferred borrowing cuts could bring back gilt market volatility.
Japanese government bonds			We are underweight. Rate hikes, higher global term premium and heavy bond issuance will likely drive yields up further.
China government bonds			We are neutral. China bonds offer stability and diversification but developed market yields are higher and investor sentiment shifting towards equities limits upside.
US agency MBS			We are overweight. Agency MBS offer higher income than Treasuries with similar risk and may offer more diversification amid fiscal and inflationary pressures.
Short-term IG credit			We are neutral. Corporate strength means spreads are low, but they could widen if issuance increases and investors rotate into US Treasuries as the Fed cuts.
Long-term IG credit			We are underweight. We prefer short-term bonds less exposed to interest rate risk over long-term bonds.
Global high yield			We are neutral. High yield offers more attractive carry and shorter duration, but we think dispersion between higher and weaker issuers will increase.
Asia credit			We are neutral. Overall yields are attractive and fundamentals are solid, but spreads are tight.
Emerging hard currency			We are overweight. EM hard-currency indexes lean towards Latin American commodity exporters such as Brazil that stand to benefit as Mideast supply plummets.
Emerging local currency			We are neutral. The US dollar has been strengthening as a safe-haven currency in the wake of the Middle East conflict. This could reverse year-to-date gains driven by a falling USD.

Asset	Tactical view	Commentary
Equities
Europe ex UK		We are neutral. We would need to see more business-friendly policy and deeper capital markets for recent outperformance to continue and to justify a broad overweight. We stay selective, favoring financials, utilities and healthcare.
Germany		We are neutral. Increased spending on defense and infrastructure could boost the corporate sector. But valuations rose significantly in 2025 and 2026 earnings revisions for other countries are outpacing Germany.
France		We are neutral. Political uncertainty could continue to drag corporate earnings behind peer markets. Yet some major French firms are shielded from domestic weakness, as foreign activity accounts for most of their revenues and operations.
Italy		We are neutral. Valuations are supportive relative to peers. Yet we think the growth and earnings outperformance that characterized 2022-2023 is unlikely to persist as fiscal consolidation continues and the impact of prior stimulus peters out.
Spain		We are overweight. Valuations and earnings growth are supportive relative to peers. Financials, utilities and infrastructure stocks stand to gain from a strong economic backdrop and advancements in AI. High exposure to fast-growing areas like emerging markets is also supportive.
Netherlands		We are neutral. Technology and semiconductors feature heavily in the Dutch stock market, but that’s offset by other sectors seeing less favorable valuations and a weaker earnings outlook than European peers.
Switzerland		We are neutral. Valuations have improved, but the earnings outlook is weaker than other European markets. If global risk appetite stays strong, the index’s tilt to stable, less volatile sectors may weigh on performance.
UK		We are neutral. Valuations remain attractive relative to the U.S., but we see few near-term catalysts to trigger a shift.

Fixed income
Euro area government bonds		We go neutral short-term European government bonds. The market has repriced the ECB policy path more in line with our view. We think increased German bond issuance to finance its fiscal stimulus package is already largely reflected in the current level of 10-year yields.
German bunds		We are neutral. Potential fiscal stimulus and bond issuance could push yields up, but we think market pricing reflects this possibility. Market expectations for near-term policy rates are also aligned with our view.
French OATs		We are neutral. France faces continued challenges from elevated political uncertainty, high budget deficits and slow structural reforms, but these risks already seem priced into OATs and we don’t expect a worsening from here.
Italian BTPs		We are neutral. The spread over German bunds looks tight given its large budget deficits and growing public debt. Domestic factors remain supportive, with growth holding up relative to the rest of the euro area and Italian households showing solid demand to hold BTPs at higher yields. Domestic political pushback likely prevents defense spending from rising to levels that would resurface fiscal stability concerns.
UK gilts		We are neutral. Gilt yields are off their highs, but we expect more market attention on long-term yields through the government’s November budget, given the difficulty it has had implementing spending cuts.
Swiss government bonds		We are neutral. Markets are expecting policy rates to return to negative territory, which we deem unlikely.
European inflation-protected securities		We are neutral. We see higher medium-term inflation, but inflation expectations are firmly anchored. Cooling inflation and uncertain growth may matter more near term.
European investment grade		We are neutral on European investment grade credit, favoring short- to medium-term paper for quality income. We prefer European investment grade over the US Quality-adjusted spreads have tightened significantly relative to the US, but they remain wider, and we see potential for further convergence.
European high yield		We are overweight. The income potential is attractive, and we prefer European high yield for its more appealing valuations, higher quality and less sensitivity to interest rate swings compared with the US Spreads adequately compensate for the risk of a potential rise in defaults, in our view.

	Reasons
Tactical
Favor AI beneficiaries	We favor infrastructure and equipment supporting the AI buildout – like semiconductors, power and data center assets – that we think stand to benefit no matter the winners or losers. We see the AI theme lifting US earnings, underpinning our US equity overweight.
Select international exposures	We like hard-currency EM debt on economic resilience, disciplined fiscal and monetary policy and a high ratio of commodities exporters. We like EM equities too, preferring commodity exporters and AI beneficiaries. In Europe, we favor equity sectors like infrastructure.
Evolving diversifiers	We suggest looking for a “plan B” portfolio hedge as long-term US Treasuries no longer provide portfolio ballast. We like gold as a tactical play with idiosyncratic drivers, but we think it has become more unreliable as the diversification mirage grows.
Strategic
Portfolio construction	We favor a scenario-based approach as AI winners and losers emerge. We lean on private markets and hedge funds for idiosyncratic return and to anchor portfolios in mega forces.
Infrastructure equity and private credit	We find infrastructure equity valuations attractive and mega forces underpinning structural demand. We still like private credit but see dispersion ahead – highlighting the importance of manager selection.
Beyond market cap benchmarks	We get granular in public markets. We favor DM government bonds outside the US Within equities, we favor EM over DM yet get selective in both. In EM, we like India which sits at the intersection of mega forces. In DM, we like Japan as mild inflation and corporate reforms brighten the outlook.

Weekly market commentary

Persistent inflation constrains policy

Too hot for comfort

A stark trade-off for central banks

Our bottom line

Market backdrop

Week ahead

Big calls

Tactical granular views

Euro-denominated tactical granular views

Meet the authors

Jean Boivin

Wei Li

Nicholas Fawcett

Tom Becker