每周投资评论

Market take Weekly video_20260810 Devan Nathwani Portfolio Strategist BlackRock Investment Institute SCRIPT Camera frame Title slide: Two market signals, one story Rapidly rising earnings forecasts alongside higher long-term bond yields are not contradictory signals. We think they're telling the same story: structural forces are reshaping markets, supporting earnings and keeping the cost of capital higher. 1: Beyond a normal business cycle Today's market isn't following the usual business cycle. Five years after the last economic downturn, analysts are still raising earnings forecasts. In the past, earnings growth typically stalled and then contracted every four to six years. We see that as evidence that structural forces are reshaping markets. For example, the AI buildout is boosting productivity and profit margins, while supply scarcity is changing how capital is deployed across the economy. Those forces are changing how we think about long-term investing. 2: Higher cost of capital But the same forces supporting earnings are also pushing bond yields higher. Governments, AI hyperscalers and companies are all competing more intensely for capital. Combined with inflation uncertainty, we think investors will keep demanding more compensation for holding long-term government bonds, or term premium. That's why we see a structurally higher cost of capital. 3: Positioning porfolios We’ve argued that this environment calls for a different approach to portfolio construction. The industry’s growing focus on the total portfolio approach reflects that shift. We prefer growth exposure through equities and private infrastructure equity over high yield credit. Tighter spreads see us go underweight in high yield credit strategically, and reinforce our view that equities are better positioned if earnings strength persists. We favor durable income in selected private credit over taking more duration risk in government bonds and global IG credit. Outro: Here’s our Market take The same structural changes supporting stronger earnings are also pushing bond yields higher. We reflect that through our preference for equities, durable income and limiting duration risk. Closing frame: Read details: blackrock.com/weekly-commentary