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Think diversification, think China bonds

I have with me today Corwin Huang, Lead product strategies at Blackrock Asian credit. From a macro economic perspective, how would you differentiate China as opposed to other developed markets?

I think for our viewers, what's most important here is how that interplays with how portfolios are constructed. Divergent macro economic environments between the developed markets in China drives divergent financial market performance. And that allows investors to be portfolios in a fundamentally less correlated to each other and creates better diversification benefits. Specifically right now, since the start of this year, China has been maintaining an environment where liquidity remains quite flush, monetary policy remains quite complicated. In fact, just very recently, China recently cut rates as well. So this means that yields onshore remain quite low, and with low volatility. So this allows investors to use onshore Chinese bonds as a building block to diversify portfolio risk without sacrificing too much financial performance.

Why should investors be investing in China right now? And what benefits can a typical China bond strategy bring to investors who are very cautious about the market?

Investing in China is not about market access. It's about using China as a building block to create a Fixed Income Solution that optimizes for yield and volatility. Now, China is a very deep market, it's now the second largest credit market in the world between the onshore and offshore market, so there is a very deep pool of attractive yielding assets to invest in. The second part of the building block here is diversification, because in order to create a Fixed Income Solution that optimizes for income for you, without taking on too much volatility, your fundamental building blocks need to be diversified. And the onshore and offshore market doesn't move together with each other because they're driven by fundamentally different risk drivers. The onshore market is driven by onshore monetary policy, whereas the offshore market is affected by global risk sentiment and exogenous factors that is beyond China risk factors. So creating a Fixed Income Solution that goes across both the onshore and offshore markets, may help us to maximize yield and at the same time, minimize volatility, in order for us to create a fixed income solution that is attractive to end investors, which is really ultimately, as is the case for all fixed income products to maximize risk adjusted income. So this is really not about a simple China solution. This is about using China as a building block to create a fixed income solution that has attracted yield with diversification and relatively low volatility to allow investors to achieve a higher risk adjusted income.

Speaking of diversification, how is Blackrock investing across onshore and offshore China credit?

At this point in time, we see quite balanced risks between the onshore and offshore market, the onshore market continues to serve as a very important building block to diversify our risk nearshore market however, models of accommodative monetary policy means that yields on shore are right now, at a relatively moderate level, which means the end at the same time, the offshore market has seen an adjustment in spreads and yields on the back of rising rates in the developed markets. So, at this point in time, we are maintaining a relatively balanced view between the onshore the offshore market to really maximize the income that we can generate across both markets, while achieving maximum diversification between the onshore and offshore market. So, right now, pretty much quite a balanced position.

In an investor’s portfolio, a typical portfolio for example, when you want to allocate between onshore and offshore, what would you recommend more exposure to the onshore the offshore market in terms of allocations?

It’s got to be dynamic here. And that's what makes a really, really good portfolio management team. The ability to move dynamically onshore and offshore drives success in managing the China fixed income portfolio. We don't typically maintain, even split across onshore and offshore for very long periods of time, because as I mentioned, both markets move very differently from each other. And at any point in time, you'll typically find one market being more attractive than the other. So allowing portfolio managers to move dynamically onshore and offshore allows us to capture those opportunities in a timely fashion to achieve very attractive long term outcomes.

Thank you for speaking with us today. My pleasure.

Achieve more than market access when investing in China bonds

China bonds can be used as building block to create a diversified fixed income solution that optimises yield while managing volatility.

Diversification and resilience

Adding China bonds to a global portfolio can provide diversification benefits and is a powerful tool to build resilience.

Attractive yields at low duration

China bonds can offer attractive yields at low duration, especially with a strategy that can invest dynamically between onshore and offshore markets to tap into those opportunities.

Although volatility will remain elevated due to market uncertainties, there are a few reasons to believe China will stand out compared to other developed markets.

With supportive statements from top authorities, we believe liquidity will likely remain ample in China and monetary policy is likely to stay accommodative to support credit and investment growth needed for a sustained GDP recovery.

China’s inflation is expected to remain benign relative to US / Europe, leaving room for monetary policy to remain accommodative. Liquidity easing efforts are under way and the People’s Bank of China (“PBOC”) is increasingly moving towards credit easing.

We also expect expansionary fiscal policy that should in turn support China credit, especially in strategically important sectors in the coming months. There has also been easing measures in the China property market, including mortgage rate cuts, and support for bond issuances for top private-owned enterprise developers.

As China gradually opens up from lockdowns, we expect investor sentiment to improve in the second half. 

The divergence in policy between China and other developed markets should drive difference in financial markets performance, allowing investors to build portfolios which are fundamentally less correlated to drive diversification benefits.

Diversify with China bonds

For investors who are still cautious about investing in the world’s second largest economy, here are two ways how adding China bonds to your global portfolio can provide diversification and resilience.

Firstly, investing in China is not about market access, but about using China as a building block to create a diversified fixed income solution that optimises yield while managing volatility. Despite being a single-country exposure asset class, CNY credit has seen positive performance and outperformed other key global asset classes across recent periods of major global market shocks.

Onshore China credit showed resilience during periods of global market shocks

Onshore China Credit is incredibly resilient against global market shocks

The figures shown relate to past performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy. Add-Indices are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Downside Mitigation cannot fully eliminate the risk of investment loss. Source: BlackRock, Bloomberg, 29 July 2022. Onshore China Credit Bonds: ChinaBond Credit Bond Index. Asian High Yield (HY): JACI HY Index. Global Investment Grade (IG): BBG Global Aggregate Corporate Total Return Index. Global HY: Bloomberg Global HY Corporate Total Return Index. Emerging Markets (EM) Corp Credit: JPM CEMBI. Time periods for the respective events are as follows – 2018 Q4 trade tension: 30 Sep 2018 to 31 Dec 2018; 2020 pandemic: 31 Dec 2019 to 31 March 2020; 2021 China property tightening: 1 Sep 2021 to 29 July 2022; 2022 Developed market tightening and geopolitical tension: 31 Dec 2021 to 29 July 2022.

Secondly, the low correlation between onshore CNY and offshore China USD credit market may help investors to diversify to reduce portfolio volatilities and generate alpha through dynamic asset allocation. The onshore market is driven by onshore monetary policy, whereas the offshore market is affected by global risk sentiment and Fed policies that is beyond just China risk factors.

Low correlation between onshore CNY bonds and offshore USD Chinese credit

Low correlation between onshore CNY bonds and offshore USD Chinese credit

The figures shown relate to past performance. Past Performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future result. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Diversification and asset allocation may not fully protect you from market risk. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Source: BlackRock, data as of 29 July 2022 | USD Chinese Bond: JP Morgan Asia Credit Index – China (CNH hedged) | Onshore RMB Credit: China Bond Credit Bond Index.

Compared to US and EU investment grade credit, we believe China bonds still offer attractive yields at low duration, especially with a strategy that can invest dynamically between onshore and offshore markets to tap into those opportunities.

Therefore, creating a fixed income solution that goes across both the onshore and offshore markets may help us to maximize yields while lowering volatility to deliver attractive risk-adjusted income.

Where we invest

Currently, we maintain a balanced view between the onshore and offshore markets. Onshore markets continue to serve as an important building block to diversify risks in the offshore markets and being able to dynamically invest across both markets in a timely manner drives the success in managing a China Bond portfolio. We are staying up in quality with a shorter duration stance; together with a balanced exposure across both the onshore and offshore markets, this allows us to optimize for high income while keeping expected volatility low.

We are constructive on the onshore market being supported by accommodative monetary policy. The stepping up of macro policy support should steadily feed through to the real economy, especially in infrastructure credits. We like strategically important sectors such as water, utility and other infrastructure-related sectors which will likely benefit from the expansionary fiscal push.

In particular, we see the onshore CNY credit market as a risk-off market, and this was evident during the trade war tension in 2018, the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, and the YTD sell-off on the back of global inflationary pressures and growth headwinds. Our onshore allocation delivered positive returns during those periods1.

In the offshore market, we prefer shorter-dated investment grade credit which allows us to minimize market beta amidst elevated market volatility while capturing attractive income considering current valuations. 

BlackRock China Bond Fund

Unleash the potential of China bonds