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2026 GLOBAL OUTLOOK
Pushing limits
The global economy and financial markets are being shaped by mega forces, especially AI. We think it’s hard to avoid making a big call on their direction — so exposure to broad indexes is not a neutral stance. We remain pro-risk, seeing the AI theme staying concentrated for now and active investing as key.
Capital at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and are not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested.
Investment themes
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01
Micro is macro
The capital spending ambitions tied to the AI buildout are so large that the micro is macro. The overall revenues could justify the spend – yet it’s unclear how much will accrue to the tech companies building AI. We stay pro-risk and overweight U.S. stocks on the AI theme. We also see this as a great time for active investing.
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02
Leveraging up
The AI buildout’s investment needs are front-loaded and while revenue gains are back loaded. That creates a financing “hump” requiring leverage. Yet a levered financial system can create vulnerabilities. We see opportunities for AI exposure in in both public and private credit markets. We turn tactically underweight long-term Treasuries.
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03
Diversification mirage
In markets driven by only a few forces, “diversifying” away from these is a bigger active call than before. We think portfolios need a clear plan B and readiness to pivot quickly. Traditional diversifiers like long-dated bonds offer less cushion against risk asset selloffs. We prefer idiosyncratic return sources in private markets.
This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or financial product or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of December 2025 and may change as subsequent conditions vary.
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