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BlackRock | 3+1 Series
FC Transcript 061826
Episode 111: Rick Rieder
What are the questions again? Was that okay? Good morning.
I'm Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock. It’s the week of July 13th. Here are three things you need to know, and one you don’t.
First up…
If inflation stays sticky, people have to think about, okay I own a couple of assets that I gotta be careful about. Long bonds and equities. Equities, you've got upside, as long as their cost infrastructure stays down and as long as productivity kicks in. The other one is long bonds. Markets will put some pressure on long bonds if inflation ends up being higher. Talking about yields, that is mid-long single digits. I like staying in the short end of the curve, and quite frankly, investing internationally. Things like merging markets, Europe, where you don’t have as much of that inflation transmission.
Next Up.
Because you’ve got an economy that’s growing, how the Fed looks at that growth, that’s going to be really important. I personally think you can allow that growth to continue, because it’ll allow for higher levels of employment, or a slowdown in the reduction of job openings. So, I think the Fed should be tolerant of better growth data. My view is particularly when the debt burden in the US is so high, you need to allow for a stronger level of growth, we need to allow for more people to be hired. For the system to breathe.
Which brings us to…
Going into the Summer, Fall months tends to be a little more volatile. Income continues to be a winner. I still think it’s going to be a winner. I think one of the things we’re gonna think about: reduce a little bit of your growth risk, the assets that are a bit more volatile. You hold that income into the Fall, and then as you get to the tailend of the year, you start to reverse that a little bit, to anticipate the beginning of the year. Seasonals matter. I always think that they are quirky, everybody knows what it is. But, they tend to follow it because cash flows tend to move alongside of that.
And the one thing you don’t need to know…
We have coming up the Open. It’s always one of the most fun tournaments to watch. Always fun to watch the quirky nature of the weather. I’m a big fan of Rory Mcilroy, and I’m riding with the leader.
To get more three plus one and stay up on everything you need to know… And some things you don't, make sure to follow us on LinkedIn and YouTube. We'll see you next week.
In this episode of 3+1, Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s CIO of Global Fixed Income, breaks down the key market themes shaping his outlook for the months ahead.
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