2026 Gold & Gold Equity Outlook

Natural rock canyon passage with warm, golden tones and an opening toward the sky

Key Takeaways

01

Government debt issue fuels the currency aversion trade

Unsustainable levels of government debt will continue to drive rotation into gold over the long term, in our view.
02

Gold and gold equities still not a crowded trade in our view

Despite strong performance in 2025, investor allocations into gold and gold equities are still relatively moderate.
03

From gold price beta to company action

We expect the 2026 story to be more about company action than gold price beta - making an active, fundamental approach more critical, in our view.

Gold shined through 2025

Gold had an outstanding year in 2025, rising 60% to over US$4,000/oz and setting 50 new records, posting the strongest annual gain since 1979. Currency aversion, geopolitical risk and financial market uncertainty drove demand. Rising debt, a weaker dollar, and fiscal risks also supported gold. As we enter 2026, these drivers remain in place, suggesting continued support for gold, in our view.

Central banks continued to build their gold reserves in 2025, adding 634 tonnes by the end of Q3. While purchases trended below the levels seen over the past three years, they remained strong relative to the prior decade. A 2025 survey showed that 95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to rise in 2026, up from 81% in 2024 and 52% in 2021.¹ With economies like China and Brazil still holding less than 10% of their reserves in gold, central bank buying should remain a key support driver.

2025 was shaped by significant geopolitical events, from the Liberation Day tariffs announcement, the unresolved Russia-Ukraine conflict, and persistent tensions in the Middle East. Together, these contributed to gold reaffirming its status as a safe-haven asset in an increasingly uncertain and fragmented world.

An even brighter spot was gold mining companies, which advanced 164%, as measured by the FTSE Gold Mines Index. This was supported by the gold price rally, costs rising only very modestly, and continuation of shareholder-friendly behaviour by companies. In 2026, the dispersion in share price performance among gold miners will depend more on their different approaches to capital allocation, strategic growth and their ability to continue to control costs. This contrasts with 2025, when dispersion was more driven by variations in operational and financial leverage, which determined each company’s gold price beta.

The story for gold continues in 2026. It’s tempting to think that 2025’s exceptional run was a one-off, but the underlying drivers remain strong. Ongoing investor demand, driven by persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and the structural debasement trade leading to currency aversion are all set to continue into 2026. Gold equities have benefited from the surge in gold prices, yet they remain undervalued and often overlooked in broader equity markets.

Gold Price (US$/oz): 10-Year Lookback