Welcome to the BlackRock site for professional investors
Before you proceed, please take a moment to review and accept the following Terms and Conditions.
This site is designed for Professional Investors resident in South Africa. We define "Professional Investors" as those who have the appropriate expertise and knowledge e.g. asset managers, distributors and financial intermediaries. You should not use this site if you do not fall within this category.
Institutional investors are entering a new phase shaped by AI-driven growth, geopolitical fragmentation and structurally higher volatility. With traditional portfolio anchors less reliable, Investment Directions for Institutions 2026 outlines how scenario-aware allocation and implementation can help build more resilient portfolios.
Capital at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and are not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested.
Key takeaways
Portfolio outcomes are more uncertain
Portfolio outcomes are more uncertain due to AI and geopolitical shifts, with equities – particularly US equities – showing the broadest range of long-term outcomes.
Asset allocation must adapt
Private markets and select public strategies can improve returns and relative stability across scenarios in a more volatile and uncertain environment.
Implementation influences outcomes
Implementation matters. Systematic alpha, smart instrument choices and selective USD hedging can enhance risk‑adjusted returns and support resilience.
Adapting institutional portfolios for an uncertain future
Watch Varia Pechurina, Lead Investment Strategist for Institutional Clients within BlackRock’s Investment and Portfolio Solutions group, discuss how scenario analysis, asset allocation, and implementation choices can help investors navigate a more uncertain environment where relying on a single long-term scenario is increasingly difficult.
Scenario analysis to strengthen institutional portfolio resilience
Using long-term capital market assumptions, we analyse how institutional portfolios may perform across a range of scenarios shaped by AI adoption and geopolitical fragmentation. Our scenario analysis shows that equity exposures, particularly US equities, drive the widest dispersion of outcomes, reinforcing the value of scenario-aware strategic asset allocation to improve resilience and risk-adjusted returns.
Private markets for access to mega force opportunities
Our analysis highlights how private markets, including infrastructure, private equity and private credit, can capture structural opportunities linked to mega forces. Select public market strategies, such as macro hedge funds, EUR high yield credit and EUR AAA CLOs, can further enhance returns, while delivering relatively stable performance across the scenarios above.
Improving portfolio efficiency through implementation choices
Shifting part of the portfolio core from index exposures to systematic alpha strategies can enhance expected returns while managing macro factor risk. Optimising instrument selection, including the use of ETFs instead of futures in US equity exposures, can improve cost efficiency. Selectively hedging USD exposure can provide protection against potential further dollar downside, while still preserving the benefits of the USD’s safe-haven characteristics.
Pensions: increasing yield and efficiency with private debt
See how private debt, including middle-market direct lending and IG infrastructure debt, can enhance returns while strengthening long-term portfolio efficiency.
Capital Market Assumptions: informing long-term portfolio decisions
Our forward-looking research helps institutional investors assess return and risk expectations across asset classes amid structural change and wider outcome dispersion. These insights support more robust strategic allocation, risk assessment and long-term portfolio construction.