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1 BlackRock, March 2022

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Quarterly Macro

Three themes for Q1 2024

20230922 ATW SPOTLIGHT Q4 OUTLOOK RETAIL 16-9 V1

[00:00:04.94] Hi, I'm Karim and I'm going to talk to you about our outlook for Q4. We think we're currently in an unprecedented economic regime, marked by stagnant growth, more persistent inflation, and greater swings in the relationship between stocks and bonds. It's a challenging environment, but we still see many opportunities for investors.

[00:00:27.77] We focus on three themes into year end. The first is that we think these dynamics will force central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer as they struggle to bring inflation back to target levels. We believe most developed market (DM) central banks are near the peak of their interest rate hiking cycles, but they may pause at current elevated levels for some time before they start cutting rates.

[00:00:54.22] Second, we are pivoting to new opportunities. We think investors need to be selective, with targeted exposures to sectors and regions that appear well-positioned in the near term.

[00:01:06.89] Third, we are harnessing mega forces. These are long-term structural drivers impacting economies and sectors, like artificial intelligence (AI). I'm now joined by Varia from our portfolio consulting team, who will explain what these themes mean for your portfolios.

[00:01:26.08] Thanks, Karim.

[00:01:27.17] In a high interest rate environment, we look to build exposure to government bonds. Because interest rates have gone up, bond yields have also risen, so investors may be able to earn more potential income by holding these assets. Investors may also want to allocate a small part of their portfolio to certain regions or sectors, such as healthcare which we think could benefit from structural changes like aging populations.

[00:01:52.17] Finally, we think investors may consider building exposure to mega forces, particularly AI, and this can be done through long-term allocations to thematics. Within the AI theme, we expect automation and robotics to help drive efficiency gains, helping to lower costs and increase output and safety across many industries.

[00:02:12.83] Thank you for joining.

Discover our key themes and Outlook for Q4 2023

Karim Chedid, Head of EMEA iShares Investment Strategy and Varia Pechurina, Portfolio Consultant, break down our key themes and Outlook for Q4 2023.

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