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2026 MIDYEAR GLOBAL OUTLOOK

Scarcity vs. abundance

Could AI accelerate innovation and lift economic growth, ushering the world into a new era of abundance? Or will scarcity in power, labor, capital and materials dominate? Our 2026 Midyear Global Outlook looks at the big calls investors can’t avoid — and how the possibility of multiple, very different economic outcomes demand a portfolio rethink.

Capital at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and are not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested.

Investment themes

  • 01

    AI scarcity

    The AI buildout is accelerating, bringing binding constraints forward. We stay overweight U.S. equities and focus on opportunities driven by bottlenecks to participate in AI growth: power, grids, memory, chips, data centers.

  • 02

    Durable income

    Higher yields have revived income as a portfolio anchor, but the source of that income matters. We prefer earning income in short-term bonds over long-term government bonds with high sensitivity to interest rates.

  • 03

    Beyond labels

    Asset-class buckets are a less useful starting point in a world shaped by mega forces. Infrastructure shows why: Its exposure to AI demand, energy security and fragmentation runs across markets and asset classes.

This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or financial product or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of June 2026 and may change as subsequent conditions vary.

Discover our key themes for the 2026 Midyear Global Outlook

Read the latest views from BII across asset classes, as we take stock of recent events and their potential implications for tactical and strategic allocations.
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Actionable investment ideas for European investors

In this environment, we look to durable growth opportunities and volatility-driven dislocation. With duration less reliable in 2026, we broaden diversifiers and income sources to build portfolios for today’s markets.
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