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Market take
Weekly video_20260112
Wei Li
Global Chief Investment Strategist, BlackRock
Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take
Camera frame
We just had three years of double-digit returns for S&P 500 that is quite rare and if we make it into four depends a lot on earnings. Q4 is starting to report and there are three themes on my mind.
Title slide: US earnings: broadening strength
1: Catching up
The first theme is some broadening out, ie. the gap between recent earnings out performers and the rest of the market is shrinking somewhat. And here I'm referring to Mag seven and S&P 493 but also US market have been leading in earnings delivery and rest of the world.
2: Mega forces support cyclical sectors
The second theme is mega forces supporting some cyclical sectors. BlackRock rolled out the framing of mega forces almost four years ago, and they have been quite helpful in understanding the markets and the economy.
If we look at AI which is one mega force, what that means for hardware and building construction and energy. If we look at energy transition which is another mega force, what that means for grid upgrades and renewable projects.
If we look at geopolitical fragmentation that is another mega force, what that means for defense spending and defense infrastructure and when we bring all of them together there are sectors, some cyclical sectors like industrials, like material industrial metals that sit at the intersection and that is quite powerful.
3: Productivity boost
The third theme is watching productivity boost appearing, starting to appear in some sectors and here the pattern for earnings that we should watch out for through the course of the year is that we start the year strong but through the course of the year analysts then guided downwards bit by bit. That pattern may still repeat but offsetting that is partially offsetting that maybe productivity boost coming through because of AI and here some sectors that we watch out for tech is of course, communications services but also healthcare. Our fundamental equity global CIO Carrie King calls healthcare the sleeper sector; many names are heavily discounted versus historical averages and at the same time, 80% of those companies are guiding upwards, so a powerful combination.
Outro: Here’s our Market take
So, the big picture is that yes, we start 2026 risk-on supported by robust earnings, supported by good growth backdrop and also central banks in particular the Fed poised to cut further. But underneath the hood there are sub themes that are playing out that are really really interesting that allow us to be active and selective.
Closing frame: Read details: blackrock.com/weekly-commentary
US corporate earnings strength is broadening. Earnings resilience and mega forces like AI keep us overweight US stocks.
The S&P 500 kicked off the new year on a positive note to reach a record high. US Treasury yields were steady, while gold pushed back near all-time highs.
The December US CPI will provide a clean read of the inflation picture after the government shutdown disruptions.
Solid US economic growth and Federal Reserve rate cuts have boosted corporate earnings and profit margins, lifting US stocks and underpinning our overweight. We think this will keep playing out in Q4 earnings results starting this week. We see three themes: a further narrowing of the earnings gap between the “magnificent seven” stocks and other sectors; mega forces supporting cyclical sectors; and AI-led productivity gains potentially offsetting typical earnings downgrades.
Change in earnings for the “magnificent seven” and the rest of S&P 500, 2023-26
Forward-looking estimates may not come to pass. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute with data from Bloomberg, January 2026. Note: The bars show calendar year change in earnings for the “magnificent seven”stocks (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) and the rest of S&P 500 companies. Shaded bars show analyst forecasts.
The US corporate earnings season is key after the S&P 500 posted a third straight year of double-digit returns in 2025, while international markets from Spain to South Korea also delivered strong results. The AI buildout and easing tariff concerns kept economic growth resilient, helping US earnings beat expectations in the third quarter, as we expected. We think earnings can keep delivering, partly as the US stocks driving earnings growth broaden out. The gap between the magnificent seven mega cap stocks like Nvidia and the rest of the S&P 500 is narrowing as the other 493 see earnings improve – the first theme we’re watching. See the chart. Yet the magnificent seven are still delivering strong earnings growth – and have consistently beat expectations in recent years, according to Bloomberg data, so that gap may not narrow as much as the consensus implies.
We still prefer tech broadly as earnings growth looks healthy and poised to broaden, both within the US and globally. S&P earnings and profit margins have also proved more resilient to tariffs than many investors expected. Consensus expectations for the magnificent seven have been revised upward to show 20% earnings growth in the fourth- quarter versus a year ago and then holding up at 19% in 2026, according to Bloomberg data. That compares with 6% for the other S&P 493 in the fourth-quarter and 15% in 2026. Such earnings strength is why US tech stocks depended less on investors pricing in higher valuations for gains last year relative to Europe and other regions. From the US “reciprocal tariff” lows in April, the MSCI USA slightly outperformed the MSCI index of global stocks excluding the US in 2025 and outperformed the same index in local currency terms by six percentage points, according to LSEG data.
Second, mega forces and lower Fed policy rates are helping boost cyclical sectors linked to stronger growth, like industrials and materials. This reinforces how we are not in a typical business cycle and mega forces are trumping the traditional macro in driving returns – one of our 2026 Global Outlook themes. Sectors including industrials and materials sit at the intersection of these mega forces: the construction and energy required in the AI data center buildout; the power grid upgrades and infrastructure investment in the energy transition; and increased defense spending tied to geopolitical fragmentation.
Our third theme: Potential productivity gains from AI could break the usual pattern of earnings estimates typically starting high and being revised down as the year progresses. We like financials in both the US and Europe, with the US benefitting from stronger dealmaking activity and lighter regulation. We find that financials is one of the sectors talking the most about AI productivity benefits in earnings calls. The healthcare sector is a laggard that we think is ripe for potential productivity improvements and innovation, with 80% of US healthcare companies guiding earnings expectations higher, FactSet data show. We’re closely watching earnings for evidence of AI-related productivity gains and new profit pools forming.
We stay overweight US equities and pro-risk on the AI theme. We eye opportunities in sectors beyond tech like healthcare that benefit from AI innovation and see mega forces supporting some key cyclical sectors like industrials.
The S&P 500 advanced nearly 2% to a fresh record high in the first full trading week of 2026 while European stocks outperformed. The US December jobs report reinforced our view of a “no hiring, no firing” stasis in the labor market. Yet renewed wage gains could point to sticky inflation that will curb how soon the Fed might cut rates again. US 10-year Treasury yields stayed in a tight range around 4.15%. Gold jumped more than 4% back to near record highs.
Attention turns to the US CPI after recent US data proved noisy, owing to disruptions from the government shutdown. November US CPI reflected partially collected data, and no data was collected for October – making this week’s December CPI report and the following releases clearer signals for assessing inflation. Early-year CPI has been strong in recent years, so inflation could surprise to the upside and curb expectations for Fed rate cuts.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of January 8, 2026. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in US dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, spot bitcoin, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (US, Germany and Italy), Bloomberg Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bloomberg Global Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.
China total social financing
US CPI; China trade
US PPI
UK November GDP; US Philly Fed manufacturing; US trade
Read our past weekly commentaries here.
Our highest conviction views on six- to 12-month (tactical) and over five-year (strategic) horizons, January 2026
| Reasons | ||
|---|---|---|
| Tactical | ||
| Still favor AI | We see the AI theme supported by strong earnings, resilient profit margins and healthy balance sheets at large listed tech companies. Continued Fed easing into 2026 and reduced policy uncertainty underpin our overweight to US equities. | |
| Select international exposures | We like Japanese equities on strong nominal growth and corporate governance reforms. We stay selective in European equities, favoring financials, utilities and healthcare. In fixed income, we prefer EM due to improved economic resilience and disciplined fiscal and monetary policy. | |
| Evolving diversifiers | We suggest looking for a “plan B” portfolio hedge as long-dated US Treasuries no longer provide portfolio ballast – and to mind potential sentiment shifts. We like gold as a tactical play with idiosyncratic drivers but don’t see it as a long-term portfolio hedge. | |
| Strategic | ||
| Portfolio construction | We favor a scenario-based approach as AI winners and losers emerge. We lean on private markets and hedge funds for idiosyncratic return and to anchor portfolios in mega forces. | |
| Infrastructure equity and private credit | We find infrastructure equity valuations attractive and mega forces underpinning structural demand. We still like private credit but see dispersion ahead – highlighting the importance of manager selection. | |
| Beyond market cap benchmarks | We get granular in public markets. We favor DM government bonds outside the US Within equities, we favor EM over DM yet get selective in both. In EM, we like India which sits at the intersection of mega forces. In DM, we like Japan as mild inflation and corporate reforms brighten the outlook. | |
Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective, January 2026. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security.
Six- to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, January 2026
We have lengthened our tactical investment horizon back to six to 12 months. The table below reflects this and, importantly, leaves aside the opportunity for alpha, or the potential to generate above-benchmark returns – especially at a time of heightened volatility.
| Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ||||||
| United States |  |
We are overweight. Strong corporate earnings, driven in part by the AI theme, are supported by a favorable macro backdrop: continued Federal Reserve easing, broad economic optimism and less policy uncertainty, particularly on the trade front. | ||||
| Europe |  |
We are neutral. We would need to see more business-friendly policy and deeper capital markets for recent outperformance to continue and to justify a broad overweight. We stay selective, favoring financials, utilities and healthcare. | ||||
| UK | |
We are neutral. Valuations remain attractive relative to the US, but we see few near-term catalysts to trigger a shift. | ||||
| Japan | |
We are overweight. Strong nominal GDP, healthy corporate capex and governance reforms – such as the decline of cross-shareholdings – all support equities. | ||||
| Emerging markets | |
We are neutral. Economic resilience has improved, yet selectivity is key. We see opportunities across EM linked to AI and the energy transition and see the rewiring of supply chains benefiting countries like Mexico, Brazil and Vietnam. | ||||
| China | |
We are neutral. Trade relations with the US have steadied, but property stress and an aging population still constrain the macro outlook. Relatively resilient activity limits near-term policy urgency. We like sectors like AI, automation and power generation. We still favor China tech within our neutral view. | ||||
| Fixed income | ||||||
| Short US Treasuries | |
We are neutral. We see other assets offering more compelling returns as short-end yields have fallen alongside the US policy rate. | ||||
| Long US Treasuries |  |
We are underweight. We see high debt servicing costs and price-sensitive domestic buyers pushing up on term premium. Yet we see risks to this view: lower inflation and better tax revenues could push down yields near term. | ||||
| Global inflation-linked bonds | |
We are neutral. We think inflation will settle above pre-pandemic levels, but markets may not price this in the near-term as growth cools. | ||||
| Euro area government bonds | |
We are neutral. We agree with market forecasts of ECB policy and think current prices largely reflect increased German bond issuance to finance its fiscal stimulus package. We prefer government bonds outside Germany. | ||||
| UK Gilts | |
We are neutral. The recent budget aims to shore up market confidence through fiscal consolidation. But deferred borrowing cuts could bring back gilt market volatility. | ||||
| Japanese government bonds |  |
We are underweight. Rate hikes, higher global term premium and heavy bond issuance will likely drive yields up further. | ||||
| China government bonds | |
We are neutral. China bonds offer stability and diversification but developed market yields are higher and investor sentiment shifting towards equities limits upside. | ||||
| US agency MBS | |
We are overweight. Agency MBS offer higher income than Treasuries with similar risk and may offer more diversification amid fiscal and inflationary pressures. | ||||
| Short-term IG credit | |
We are neutral. Corporate strength means spreads are low, but they could widen if issuance increases and investors rotate into US Treasuries as the Fed cuts. | ||||
| Long-term IG credit | |
We are underweight. We prefer short-term bonds less exposed to interest rate risk over long-term bonds. | ||||
| Global high yield | |
We are neutral. High yield offers more attractive carry in an environment where growth is holding up – but we think dispersion between higher and weaker issuers will increase. | ||||
| Asia credit | |
We are neutral. Overall yields are attractive and fundamentals are solid, but spreads are tight. | ||||
| Emerging hard currency | |
We are overweight. A weaker US dollar, lower US rates and effective EM fiscal and monetary policy have improved economic resilience. We prefer high yield bonds. | ||||
| Emerging local currency | |
We are neutral. A weaker US dollar has boosted local currency EM debt, but it’s unclear if this weakening will persist. | ||||
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, January 2026
| Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ||||
| Europe ex UK | |
We are neutral. We would need to see more business-friendly policy and deeper capital markets for recent outperformance to continue and to justify a broad overweight. We stay selective, favoring financials, utilities and healthcare. | ||
| Germany | |
We are neutral. Increased spending on defense and infrastructure could boost the corporate sector. But valuations rose significantly in 2025 and 2026 earnings revisions for other countries are outpacing Germany. | ||
| France | |
We are neutral. Political uncertainty could continue to drag corporate earnings behind peer markets. Yet some major French firms are shielded from domestic weakness, as foreign activity accounts for most of their revenues and operations. | ||
| Italy | |
We are neutral. Valuations are supportive relative to peers. Yet we think the growth and earnings outperformance that characterized 2022-2023 is unlikely to persist as fiscal consolidation continues and the impact of prior stimulus peters out. | ||
| Spain | |
We are overweight. Valuations and earnings growth are supportive relative to peers. Financials, utilities and infrastructure stocks stand to gain from a strong economic backdrop and advancements in AI. High exposure to fast-growing areas like emerging markets is also supportive. | ||
| Netherlands | |
We are neutral. Technology and semiconductors feature heavily in the Dutch stock market, but that’s offset by other sectors seeing less favorable valuations and a weaker earnings outlook than European peers. | ||
| Switzerland |  |
We are neutral. Valuations have improved, but the earnings outlook is weaker than other European markets. If global risk appetite stays strong, the index’s tilt to stable, less volatile sectors may weigh on performance. | ||
| UK | |
We are neutral. Valuations remain attractive relative to the U.S., but we see few near-term catalysts to trigger a shift. | ||
| Fixed income | ||||
| Euro area government bonds | |
We are neutral. Yields are attractive, and term premium has risen closer to our expectations relative to US Treasuries. Peripheral bond yields have converged closer to core yields. | ||
| German bunds | |
We are neutral. Potential fiscal stimulus and bond issuance could push yields up, but we think market pricing reflects this possibility. Market expectations for near-term policy rates are also aligned with our view. | ||
| French OATs | |
We are neutral. France faces continued challenges from elevated political uncertainty, high budget deficits and slow structural reforms, but these risks already seem priced into OATs and we don’t expect a worsening from here. | ||
| Italian BTPs | |
We are neutral. The spread over German bunds looks tight given its large budget deficits and growing public debt. Domestic factors remain supportive, with growth holding up relative to the rest of the euro area and Italian households showing solid demand to hold BTPs at higher yields. Domestic political pushback likely prevents defense spending from rising to levels that would resurface fiscal stability concerns. | ||
| UK gilts | |
We are neutral. Gilt yields are off their highs, but we expect more market attention on long-term yields through the government’s November budget, given the difficulty it has had implementing spending cuts. | ||
| Swiss government bonds | |
We are neutral. Markets are expecting policy rates to return to negative territory, which we deem unlikely. | ||
| European inflation-protected securities | |
We are neutral. We see higher medium-term inflation, but inflation expectations are firmly anchored. Cooling inflation and uncertain growth may matter more near term. | ||
| European investment grade | |
We are neutral on European investment grade credit, favoring short- to medium-term paper for quality income. We prefer European investment grade over the US Quality-adjusted spreads have tightened significantly relative to the US, but they remain wider, and we see potential for further convergence. | ||
| European high yield | |
We are overweight. The income potential is attractive, and we prefer European high yield for its more appealing valuations, higher quality and less sensitivity to interest rate swings compared with the US Spreads adequately compensate for the risk of a potential rise in defaults, in our view. | ||
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