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Market take
Weekly video_20260126
Michel Dilmanian
Portfolio strategist, BlackRock Investment Institute
Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take
Camera frame
Title slide: Immutable economic laws in action again
Developed market government bonds yields jumped last week after fresh US tariff threats – though the headlines focused on the selloff in Japanese Government Bonds. As the US backed off from new tariffs, DM yields fell – showing how immutable economic laws again came into play.
1: More corporate bonds coming
Bond markets have started the year with a bang. Developed market bond yields jumped – particularly in Japan where 40-year yields saw historic spikes. These moves quickly grabbed headlines but were short lived as immutable economic laws limited extreme outcomes yet again.
Meanwhile, US corporate bond issuance is forecast to hit a record-high this year as companies are leveraging up to fund the AI buildout, as described in our Global Outlook. This is a feature of the current market environment, in our view.
2: Japan’s fiscal concerns stoking volatility
The headlines around the government bond selloff focused on JGB yields . But we think the story is a global one, where geopolitics are running up against immutable economic laws – specifically, the need for sizeable foreign investment to finance US debt.
Any spike in long-term bond yields could quickly raise questions about debt sustainability. This has already played out, with the result being a moderation of policies.
3: Leveraging up
This risk of higher bond yields comes against a corporate sector that’s leveraging up. Public and private balance sheets have diverged sharply since the Financial Crisis, but US corporates have room to take on more leverage, and they’re doing so from a position of strength.
Yet more leverage overall makes the financial system more vulnerable to shocks - like the yield spike we saw in Japan last week.
Against this backdrop of a surge in issuance, we’re more selective in fixed income. We prefer high yield over investment grade debt, and short-term over long-term credit. We also prefer direct lending in private credit and favor established, large borrowers.
Outro: Here’s our Market take
The recent spike and subsequent decline in yields shows how immutable economic laws can limit extreme outcomes. We stay underweight long-term DM government bonds – but still see select opportunities in fixed income.
Closing frame: Read details: blackrock.com/weekly-commentary
This week saw immutable laws limiting how far US trade policy can go. Our leveraging up theme is also playing out with near-record bond issuance.
US stocks were flat in a volatile week marked by renewed geopolitical tensions. US 10-year yields hit a four-month high. Gold soared 8% to new record highs.
We expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged this week. Mixed signals from recent jobs and inflation data justify a “wait-and-see” stance, in our view.
Developed market (DM) government bond yields jumped last week on fresh US tariff threats. Japan’s bond selloff attracted headlines as yields hit record highs. But as the US backed off from new tariffs on Europe, DM yields fell back: immutable economic laws – like the dependence on foreign financing of US debt – came into play like last April. Our leveraging up theme plays out too, with record US investment grade debt issuance for the first full week of January, per LSEG.
Gross issuance of US investment grade bonds, 2011-2026
Forward-looking estimates may not come to pass. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from BlackRock Capital Markets and Credit Flow Research. Note: Gross bond issuance is the total amount of new corporate bonds sold in the primary market, before accounting for redemptions.
Bond markets have started 2026 in a bumpy fashion. DM government bond yields jumped, particularly in Japan, with historic spikes in 30- and 40-year yields. We see the jump as primarily a global story driven by renewed US tariff threats to Europe. The quick walk-back of those threats underscored how geopolitics – and US trade policy – is colliding with immutable economic laws that constrain policy swings. Another feature of this fixed income environment: an expected surge in US corporate bond sales, partly tied to the AI buildout, with BlackRock’s global markets team seeing US investment grade bond issuance hitting a record $1.85 trillion this year. See the chart. This shows the leveraging up theme from our 2026 Outlook at play: greater leverage can create vulnerabilities that expose the financial system to shocks like government bond yield spikes.
We think last week’s bond market volatility is ultimately a global story driven by US tariff threats, with the impact amplified in the more-volatile Japanese government bond (JGB) market by technical factors: new fiscal worries after a snap election was called and a weak auction of long-term bonds. Yet US trade policy again ran into an immutable economic law: the US’s need for sizeable foreign investment to finance its debt in a world shaped by greater bond supply and higher-for-longer interest rates. Any spike in long-term bond yields can heighten debt sustainability concerns, repeatedly leading to a moderation of policy extremes over the past year. In this environment, bonds no longer provide the same level of portfolio ballast, keeping us tactically underweight long-term JGBs since 2023, and long-term US Treasuries since December 2025.
Also playing out in bond markets this year: our leveraging up theme. The risk of surging bond yields comes against a US corporate sector leveraging up to fund the AI buildout. Unlike the public sector, US corporates have room for more leverage. Public and private balance sheets have diverged sharply since the 2000s, with government debt surging to post-World War II highs while corporate leverage eases, US government and LSEG data show. And unlike the run-up to the dot-com bubble, the mostly mega cap tech companies powering the AI buildout are issuing from a position of strength, we think. But more leverage throughout the financial system makes it more vulnerable to shocks, such as bond yield spikes tied to fiscal concerns like those that we saw in Japan last week and policy tensions between managing inflation and debt servicing costs.
This shapes our fixed income views. Greater investment grade (IG) bond issuance this year is one reason we prefer high yield bonds over IG, and within IG short-term over long-term credit. We like mortgage-backed securities offering similar risk but higher income versus US Treasuries. We also like emerging market debt (EMD) that we see benefiting from EM countries delivering improved fiscal and monetary policy, as well as a weaker US dollar. In private credit, we favor direct lending, especially established and large borrowers who can better underwrite deals, in our view.
Immutable laws again limited policy extremes after a brief jump in bond yields. We are underweight long-term DM government bonds. We favor mortgage-backed securities, emerging market bonds and stay selective in credit.
The S&P 500 slipped slightly in a volatile week but is still up about 1% this month. US President Donald Trump threatened tariffs on European countries over Greenland before calling them off and saying an agreement had been struck. South Korean stocks rose 3% and have climbed 18% this year. US 10-year Treasury yields jumped to a four-month high near 4.30%. Gold was the winner over geopolitical uncertainty, soaring 8% on the week to a fresh record.
The Fed’s rate decision is this week’s main event. We think the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged given mixed signals from recent jobs and inflation data. US trade data for November will show if October’s trade deficit, a near two-decade low, will persist, potentially lifting expectations for 2025 GDP growth. Japan unemployment data will shed light on its tight labor market. We see room for more Bank of Japan hikes as it normalises monetary policy.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of January 22, 2026. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in US dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, spot bitcoin, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (US, Germany and Italy), Bloomberg Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bloomberg Global Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.
US consumer confidence
US Federal Reserve policy decision
US trade balance; Japan unemployment
Euro area flash GDP, unemployment; US PPI
Read our past weekly commentaries here.
Our highest conviction views on six- to 12-month (tactical) and over five-year (strategic) horizons, January 2026
| Reasons | ||
|---|---|---|
| Tactical | ||
| Still favor AI | We see the AI theme supported by strong earnings, resilient profit margins and healthy balance sheets at large listed tech companies. Continued Fed easing into 2026 and reduced policy uncertainty underpin our overweight to US equities. | |
| Select international exposures | We like Japanese equities on strong nominal growth and corporate governance reforms. We stay selective in European equities, favoring financials, utilities and healthcare. In fixed income, we prefer EM due to improved economic resilience and disciplined fiscal and monetary policy. | |
| Evolving diversifiers | We suggest looking for a “plan B” portfolio hedge as long-dated US Treasuries no longer provide portfolio ballast – and to mind potential sentiment shifts. We like gold as a tactical play with idiosyncratic drivers but don’t see it as a long-term portfolio hedge. | |
| Strategic | ||
| Portfolio construction | We favor a scenario-based approach as AI winners and losers emerge. We lean on private markets and hedge funds for idiosyncratic return and to anchor portfolios in mega forces. | |
| Infrastructure equity and private credit | We find infrastructure equity valuations attractive and mega forces underpinning structural demand. We still like private credit but see dispersion ahead – highlighting the importance of manager selection. | |
| Beyond market cap benchmarks | We get granular in public markets. We favor DM government bonds outside the US Within equities, we favor EM over DM yet get selective in both. In EM, we like India which sits at the intersection of mega forces. In DM, we like Japan as mild inflation and corporate reforms brighten the outlook. | |
Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective, January 2026. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security.
Six- to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, January 2026
We have lengthened our tactical investment horizon back to six to 12 months. The table below reflects this and, importantly, leaves aside the opportunity for alpha, or the potential to generate above-benchmark returns – especially at a time of heightened volatility.
| Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ||||||
| United States |  |
We are overweight. Strong corporate earnings, driven in part by the AI theme, are supported by a favorable macro backdrop: continued Federal Reserve easing, broad economic optimism and less policy uncertainty, particularly on the trade front. | ||||
| Europe |  |
We are neutral. We would need to see more business-friendly policy and deeper capital markets for recent outperformance to continue and to justify a broad overweight. We stay selective, favoring financials, utilities and healthcare. | ||||
| UK | |
We are neutral. Valuations remain attractive relative to the US, but we see few near-term catalysts to trigger a shift. | ||||
| Japan | |
We are overweight. Strong nominal GDP, healthy corporate capex and governance reforms – such as the decline of cross-shareholdings – all support equities. | ||||
| Emerging markets | |
We are neutral. Economic resilience has improved, yet selectivity is key. We see opportunities across EM linked to AI and the energy transition and see the rewiring of supply chains benefiting countries like Mexico, Brazil and Vietnam. | ||||
| China | |
We are neutral. Trade relations with the US have steadied, but property stress and an aging population still constrain the macro outlook. Relatively resilient activity limits near-term policy urgency. We like sectors like AI, automation and power generation. We still favor China tech within our neutral view. | ||||
| Fixed income | ||||||
| Short US Treasuries | |
We are neutral. We see other assets offering more compelling returns as short-end yields have fallen alongside the US policy rate. | ||||
| Long US Treasuries |  |
We are underweight. We see high debt servicing costs and price-sensitive domestic buyers pushing up on term premium. Yet we see risks to this view: lower inflation and better tax revenues could push down yields near term. | ||||
| Global inflation-linked bonds | |
We are neutral. We think inflation will settle above pre-pandemic levels, but markets may not price this in the near-term as growth cools. | ||||
| Euro area government bonds | |
We are neutral. We agree with market forecasts of ECB policy and think current prices largely reflect increased German bond issuance to finance its fiscal stimulus package. We prefer government bonds outside Germany. | ||||
| UK Gilts | |
We are neutral. The recent budget aims to shore up market confidence through fiscal consolidation. But deferred borrowing cuts could bring back gilt market volatility. | ||||
| Japanese government bonds |  |
We are underweight. Rate hikes, higher global term premium and heavy bond issuance will likely drive yields up further. | ||||
| China government bonds | |
We are neutral. China bonds offer stability and diversification but developed market yields are higher and investor sentiment shifting towards equities limits upside. | ||||
| US agency MBS | |
We are overweight. Agency MBS offer higher income than Treasuries with similar risk and may offer more diversification amid fiscal and inflationary pressures. | ||||
| Short-term IG credit | |
We are neutral. Corporate strength means spreads are low, but they could widen if issuance increases and investors rotate into US Treasuries as the Fed cuts. | ||||
| Long-term IG credit | |
We are underweight. We prefer short-term bonds less exposed to interest rate risk over long-term bonds. | ||||
| Global high yield | |
We are neutral. High yield offers more attractive carry in an environment where growth is holding up – but we think dispersion between higher and weaker issuers will increase. | ||||
| Asia credit | |
We are neutral. Overall yields are attractive and fundamentals are solid, but spreads are tight. | ||||
| Emerging hard currency | |
We are overweight. A weaker US dollar, lower US rates and effective EM fiscal and monetary policy have improved economic resilience. We prefer high yield bonds. | ||||
| Emerging local currency | |
We are neutral. A weaker US dollar has boosted local currency EM debt, but it’s unclear if this weakening will persist. | ||||
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, January 2026
| Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ||||
| Europe ex UK | |
We are neutral. We would need to see more business-friendly policy and deeper capital markets for recent outperformance to continue and to justify a broad overweight. We stay selective, favoring financials, utilities and healthcare. | ||
| Germany | |
We are neutral. Increased spending on defense and infrastructure could boost the corporate sector. But valuations rose significantly in 2025 and 2026 earnings revisions for other countries are outpacing Germany. | ||
| France | |
We are neutral. Political uncertainty could continue to drag corporate earnings behind peer markets. Yet some major French firms are shielded from domestic weakness, as foreign activity accounts for most of their revenues and operations. | ||
| Italy | |
We are neutral. Valuations are supportive relative to peers. Yet we think the growth and earnings outperformance that characterized 2022-2023 is unlikely to persist as fiscal consolidation continues and the impact of prior stimulus peters out. | ||
| Spain | |
We are overweight. Valuations and earnings growth are supportive relative to peers. Financials, utilities and infrastructure stocks stand to gain from a strong economic backdrop and advancements in AI. High exposure to fast-growing areas like emerging markets is also supportive. | ||
| Netherlands | |
We are neutral. Technology and semiconductors feature heavily in the Dutch stock market, but that’s offset by other sectors seeing less favorable valuations and a weaker earnings outlook than European peers. | ||
| Switzerland |  |
We are neutral. Valuations have improved, but the earnings outlook is weaker than other European markets. If global risk appetite stays strong, the index’s tilt to stable, less volatile sectors may weigh on performance. | ||
| UK | |
We are neutral. Valuations remain attractive relative to the U.S., but we see few near-term catalysts to trigger a shift. | ||
| Fixed income | ||||
| Euro area government bonds | |
We are neutral. Yields are attractive, and term premium has risen closer to our expectations relative to US Treasuries. Peripheral bond yields have converged closer to core yields. | ||
| German bunds | |
We are neutral. Potential fiscal stimulus and bond issuance could push yields up, but we think market pricing reflects this possibility. Market expectations for near-term policy rates are also aligned with our view. | ||
| French OATs | |
We are neutral. France faces continued challenges from elevated political uncertainty, high budget deficits and slow structural reforms, but these risks already seem priced into OATs and we don’t expect a worsening from here. | ||
| Italian BTPs | |
We are neutral. The spread over German bunds looks tight given its large budget deficits and growing public debt. Domestic factors remain supportive, with growth holding up relative to the rest of the euro area and Italian households showing solid demand to hold BTPs at higher yields. Domestic political pushback likely prevents defense spending from rising to levels that would resurface fiscal stability concerns. | ||
| UK gilts | |
We are neutral. Gilt yields are off their highs, but we expect more market attention on long-term yields through the government’s November budget, given the difficulty it has had implementing spending cuts. | ||
| Swiss government bonds | |
We are neutral. Markets are expecting policy rates to return to negative territory, which we deem unlikely. | ||
| European inflation-protected securities | |
We are neutral. We see higher medium-term inflation, but inflation expectations are firmly anchored. Cooling inflation and uncertain growth may matter more near term. | ||
| European investment grade | |
We are neutral on European investment grade credit, favoring short- to medium-term paper for quality income. We prefer European investment grade over the US Quality-adjusted spreads have tightened significantly relative to the US, but they remain wider, and we see potential for further convergence. | ||
| European high yield | |
We are overweight. The income potential is attractive, and we prefer European high yield for its more appealing valuations, higher quality and less sensitivity to interest rate swings compared with the US Spreads adequately compensate for the risk of a potential rise in defaults, in our view. | ||
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