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Weekly video_20260309
Natalie Gill
Senior Portfolio Strategist, BlackRock Investment Institute
Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take
Camera frame
The Middle East conflict is causing energy supply disruptions and price shocks with very different regional market effects. It adds to inflation risk and reinforces our long-held view that we are in a world shaped by supply. For now, we see energy supply disruptions lasting weeks – not months – and don’t currently see any reason to push back on current pricing.
Title slide: Gauging the Mideast supply shock
1: Upending market trends
The conflict is upending recent trends and well-established relationships in global markets. International equities had outperformed US stocks this year – but that leadership has reversed abruptly.
Similarly, prices of liquified natural gas – or LNG – are rocketing upward in regions that rely heavily on imports such as Europe, but staying mostly put in the US Long-term US Treasuries declined, whereas they would often rally and cushion equity market selloffs in past geopolitical crises. This aligns with our view that we are at risk of an inflationary supply shock, rather than a classic demand-driven growth slowdown.
2: Sizing up the shock
This is a disruption at the heart of the global LNG infrastructure – very different from the Europe-centric, pipeline-driven energy crunch of 2022. Back then, LNG prices tightened through competitive bidding and stockpiling. Today, the strain on energy starts at export terminals and shipping posts. We think that Europe and parts of Asia will feel the most strain since they rely on imported LNG for industrial production.
3: A world shaped by supply
These developments fit a pattern we’ve long observed: geopolitical shocks creating supply constraints in a fragmenting world. Structurally sticky inflation remains the risk if the disruption endures. Against this backdrop, growth-inflation trade-offs become even more acute. That tension is already showing up in rising long-term bond yields and upward pressure on term premia, or the extra compensation investors demand to hold long-term bonds. Even without a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, we could see the shock upend the 'low inflation, lower interest rates' narrative that has powered markets until recently.
Outro: Here’s our Market take
The situation remains fluid, with real risks. For now, we believe the shock is likely to be short-lived. We see disruptions measured in weeks, rather than in months. We stay underweight long-term US Treasuries and favor US and Japanese stocks. In Europe, we like select sectors such as financials, pharma and infrastructure.
The Middle East conflict is causing a supply chain shock. Energy prices have spiked, and we don’t see a basis to disagree given what we know now.
US stocks ended the week lower, outperforming sharp equity declines elsewhere. US 10-year Treasury yields climbed, defying their role as a haven.
US inflation data this week could test whether energy-driven price pressures broaden, shaping the Fed’s policy flexibility amid rising inflation risk.
The Middle East conflict is causing an energy-led supply chain shock, with very different effects around the world. Market pricing suggests weeks of disruptions, not days or months. The episode adds to inflation risk in a world shaped by supply factors. That’s why long-term Treasury yields have edged up, defying their role as a haven. There’s a risk of a stagflationary shock but it’s not a given, as market pricing indicates. We stay underweight long-term Treasuries and favor US stocks.
US equity performance vs the rest of the world, 2025-26
The figures shown relate to past performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute with data from LSEG Datastream, March 2026. Note: Price indices used as follows: MSCI Emerging Markets, MSCI All Country World Excluding United States and MSCI USA.
The conflict is upending recent trends and well-established relationships in global markets. International equities had walloped US stocks until the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, driven largely by AI-related disruption fears in industries the US is exposed to. See the bars on the left side of the chart. That leadership has reversed abruptly: equity markets in regions most dependent on energy imports have sagged sharply whereas the MSCI US has been steady (right set of bars). Prices of liquified natural gas (LNG) showed similar trends, rocketing upward in regions that rely heavily on imports such as Europe and staying mostly put in the US Long-term US Treasury yields jumped even as stocks pulled back, showing their supposed diversification properties can be a mirage. The yield increase aligns with our view that we are at risk of an inflationary supply shock, rather than a demand-driven growth slowdown.
How big will the shock be? It comes down to supply chain disruptions, in particular for energy. Months of disruptions could push up inflation and materially hurt growth. Oil futures pricing indicates disruptions could last for weeks, not months. This is reasonable because economic and political pressures will likely provide strong incentives to contain the conflict. And disruptions could ease in the meantime if US naval escorts and shipping insurance prove effective in preventing a prolonged closure of the world’s energy aorta – the Strait of Hormuz. The net result of all this: a short-term supply squeeze with disparate regional effects.
The conflict is a disruption at the heart of LNG infrastructure, very different from the Europe-centric, pipeline-driven energy crunch in 2022. Back then, LNG prices tightened through competitive bidding and stockpiling. Today, the strain on energy starts at export terminals and shipping posts. We see Europe and parts of Asia as most vulnerable given their reliance on imported LNG for power and industrial production. These markets have underperformed the more shielded US as a result, and we see no reason to push back on that. The performance divergence reflects an asymmetrical energy market structure: oil can be rerouted globally, but LNG infrastructure, shipping and pricing are very regional.
The episode fits a pattern of geopolitical shocks creating supply constraints in a fragmenting world. Structurally sticky inflation remains the risk if the disruption endures. This makes growth-inflation trade-offs more acute than in the pre-fragmentation era – and reinforces our long-held view of a world shaped by supply. Markets are reflecting this in rising bond yields and upward pressure on term premia, or the extra compensation investors demand to hold long-term bonds. Even absent a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, we could see the shock upend the “low inflation, lower interest rates” narrative that has powered markets until recently. This reinforces our view that inflation could surprise to the upside.
The situation is fluid, and the risks are real. For now, we believe the shock is likely to be short-lived. We see disruptions measured in weeks, rather than in months or days. We stay underweight long-term US Treasuries and favor US and Japanese stocks. In Europe, we like the financial, pharma and infrastructure sectors.
The Middle East conflict had disparate market effects last week, with energy-importing markets hit hardest. European natural gas spiked nearly 70% in stark contrast to the 8% gain in US gas prices. The S&P 500 fell 2%, holding up better than international peers: Europe’s Stoxx 600 shed 6%, alongside Japan’s Topix. South Korea’s Kospi fell 11%. Yields on the US 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.11% on inflation fears, defying its role as a haven in geopolitical conflicts.
We focus this week on US inflation data, with CPI and PCE likely to reinforce the persistence of underlying price pressures on sticky services inflation and solid wage growth. In China, CPI and PPI data are expected to remain subdued, underscoring weak domestic demand and lingering deflationary pressures.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of March 6, 2026. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in US dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, spot bitcoin, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (US, Germany and Italy), Bloomberg Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bloomberg Global Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.
Japan trade balance; China CPI, PPI
US CPI
US trade balance
US PCE; University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey; UK GDP
Read our past weekly commentaries here.
Our highest conviction views on six- to 12-month (tactical) and over five-year (strategic) horizons, March 2026
| Reasons | ||
|---|---|---|
| Tactical | ||
| Still favor AI | We see the AI theme supported by strong earnings, resilient profit margins and healthy balance sheets at large listed tech companies. Continued Fed easing into 2026 and reduced policy uncertainty underpin our overweight to US equities. | |
| Select international exposures | We like Japanese equities on strong nominal growth and corporate governance reforms. We stay selective in European equities, favoring financials, utilities and healthcare. In fixed income, we prefer EM due to improved economic resilience and disciplined fiscal and monetary policy. | |
| Evolving diversifiers | We suggest looking for a “plan B” portfolio hedge as long-dated US Treasuries no longer provide portfolio ballast – and to mind potential sentiment shifts. We like gold as a tactical play with idiosyncratic drivers but don’t see it as a long-term portfolio hedge. | |
| Strategic | ||
| Portfolio construction | We favor a scenario-based approach as AI winners and losers emerge. We lean on private markets and hedge funds for idiosyncratic return and to anchor portfolios in mega forces. | |
| Infrastructure equity and private credit | We find infrastructure equity valuations attractive and mega forces underpinning structural demand. We still like private credit but see dispersion ahead – highlighting the importance of manager selection. | |
| Beyond market cap benchmarks | We get granular in public markets. We favor DM government bonds outside the US Within equities, we favor EM over DM yet get selective in both. In EM, we like India which sits at the intersection of mega forces. In DM, we like Japan as mild inflation and corporate reforms brighten the outlook. | |
Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective, March 2026. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security.
Six- to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, March 2026
We have lengthened our tactical investment horizon back to six to 12 months. The table below reflects this and, importantly, leaves aside the opportunity for alpha, or the potential to generate above-benchmark returns – especially at a time of heightened volatility.
| Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developed markets | ||||||
| United States |  |
We are overweight. Strong corporate earnings, driven in part by the AI theme, are supported by a favorable macro backdrop: continued Federal Reserve easing, broad economic optimism and less policy uncertainty, particularly on the trade front. | ||||
| Europe |  |
We are neutral. We would need to see more business-friendly policy and deeper capital markets for recent outperformance to continue and to justify a broad overweight. We stay selective, favoring financials, utilities and healthcare. | ||||
| UK | |
We are neutral. Valuations remain attractive relative to the US, but we see few near-term catalysts to trigger a shift. | ||||
| Japan | |
We are overweight. Strong nominal GDP, healthy corporate capex and governance reforms – such as the decline of cross-shareholdings – all support equities. | ||||
| Emerging markets | |
We are neutral. Economic resilience has improved, yet selectivity is key. We see opportunities across EM linked to AI and the energy transition and see the rewiring of supply chains benefiting countries like Mexico, Brazil and Vietnam. | ||||
| China | |
We are neutral. Trade relations with the US have steadied, but property stress and an aging population still constrain the macro outlook. Relatively resilient activity limits near-term policy urgency. We like sectors like AI, automation and power generation. We still favor China tech within our neutral view. | ||||
| Fixed income | ||||||
| Short US Treasuries | |
We are neutral. We see other assets offering more compelling returns as short-end yields have fallen alongside the US policy rate. | ||||
| Long US Treasuries |  |
We are underweight. We see high debt servicing costs and price-sensitive domestic buyers pushing up on term premium. Yet we see risks to this view: lower inflation and better tax revenues could push down yields near term. | ||||
| Global inflation-linked bonds | |
We are neutral. We think inflation will settle above pre-pandemic levels, but markets may not price this in the near-term as growth cools. | ||||
| Euro area government bonds | |
We are neutral. We agree with market forecasts of ECB policy and think current prices largely reflect increased German bond issuance to finance its fiscal stimulus package. We prefer government bonds outside Germany. | ||||
| UK Gilts | |
We are neutral. The recent budget aims to shore up market confidence through fiscal consolidation. But deferred borrowing cuts could bring back gilt market volatility. | ||||
| Japanese government bonds |  |
We are underweight. Rate hikes, higher global term premium and heavy bond issuance will likely drive yields up further. | ||||
| China government bonds | |
We are neutral. China bonds offer stability and diversification but developed market yields are higher and investor sentiment shifting towards equities limits upside. | ||||
| US agency MBS | |
We are overweight. Agency MBS offer higher income than Treasuries with similar risk and may offer more diversification amid fiscal and inflationary pressures. | ||||
| Short-term IG credit | |
We are neutral. Corporate strength means spreads are low, but they could widen if issuance increases and investors rotate into US Treasuries as the Fed cuts. | ||||
| Long-term IG credit | |
We are underweight. We prefer short-term bonds less exposed to interest rate risk over long-term bonds. | ||||
| Global high yield | |
We are neutral. High yield offers more attractive carry in an environment where growth is holding up – but we think dispersion between higher and weaker issuers will increase. | ||||
| Asia credit | |
We are neutral. Overall yields are attractive and fundamentals are solid, but spreads are tight. | ||||
| Emerging hard currency | |
We are overweight. A weaker US dollar, lower US rates and effective EM fiscal and monetary policy have improved economic resilience. We prefer high yield bonds. | ||||
| Emerging local currency | |
We are neutral. A weaker US dollar has boosted local currency EM debt, but it’s unclear if this weakening will persist. | ||||
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, March 2026
| Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ||||
| Europe ex UK | |
We are neutral. We would need to see more business-friendly policy and deeper capital markets for recent outperformance to continue and to justify a broad overweight. We stay selective, favoring financials, utilities and healthcare. | ||
| Germany | |
We are neutral. Increased spending on defense and infrastructure could boost the corporate sector. But valuations rose significantly in 2025 and 2026 earnings revisions for other countries are outpacing Germany. | ||
| France | |
We are neutral. Political uncertainty could continue to drag corporate earnings behind peer markets. Yet some major French firms are shielded from domestic weakness, as foreign activity accounts for most of their revenues and operations. | ||
| Italy | |
We are neutral. Valuations are supportive relative to peers. Yet we think the growth and earnings outperformance that characterized 2022-2023 is unlikely to persist as fiscal consolidation continues and the impact of prior stimulus peters out. | ||
| Spain | |
We are overweight. Valuations and earnings growth are supportive relative to peers. Financials, utilities and infrastructure stocks stand to gain from a strong economic backdrop and advancements in AI. High exposure to fast-growing areas like emerging markets is also supportive. | ||
| Netherlands | |
We are neutral. Technology and semiconductors feature heavily in the Dutch stock market, but that’s offset by other sectors seeing less favorable valuations and a weaker earnings outlook than European peers. | ||
| Switzerland |  |
We are neutral. Valuations have improved, but the earnings outlook is weaker than other European markets. If global risk appetite stays strong, the index’s tilt to stable, less volatile sectors may weigh on performance. | ||
| UK | |
We are neutral. Valuations remain attractive relative to the U.S., but we see few near-term catalysts to trigger a shift. | ||
| Fixed income | ||||
| Euro area government bonds | |
We are neutral. Yields are attractive, and term premium has risen closer to our expectations relative to US Treasuries. Peripheral bond yields have converged closer to core yields. | ||
| German bunds | |
We are neutral. Potential fiscal stimulus and bond issuance could push yields up, but we think market pricing reflects this possibility. Market expectations for near-term policy rates are also aligned with our view. | ||
| French OATs | |
We are neutral. France faces continued challenges from elevated political uncertainty, high budget deficits and slow structural reforms, but these risks already seem priced into OATs and we don’t expect a worsening from here. | ||
| Italian BTPs | |
We are neutral. The spread over German bunds looks tight given its large budget deficits and growing public debt. Domestic factors remain supportive, with growth holding up relative to the rest of the euro area and Italian households showing solid demand to hold BTPs at higher yields. Domestic political pushback likely prevents defense spending from rising to levels that would resurface fiscal stability concerns. | ||
| UK gilts | |
We are neutral. Gilt yields are off their highs, but we expect more market attention on long-term yields through the government’s November budget, given the difficulty it has had implementing spending cuts. | ||
| Swiss government bonds | |
We are neutral. Markets are expecting policy rates to return to negative territory, which we deem unlikely. | ||
| European inflation-protected securities | |
We are neutral. We see higher medium-term inflation, but inflation expectations are firmly anchored. Cooling inflation and uncertain growth may matter more near term. | ||
| European investment grade | |
We are neutral on European investment grade credit, favoring short- to medium-term paper for quality income. We prefer European investment grade over the US Quality-adjusted spreads have tightened significantly relative to the US, but they remain wider, and we see potential for further convergence. | ||
| European high yield | |
We are overweight. The income potential is attractive, and we prefer European high yield for its more appealing valuations, higher quality and less sensitivity to interest rate swings compared with the US Spreads adequately compensate for the risk of a potential rise in defaults, in our view. | ||
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