Für qualifizierte Anleger

Monthly Gold Report
April

15-Mai-2018
By BlackRock

This report is to provide an update of Gold performance.

Gold equities posted positive performance during the month in spite of the gold price declining -0.8% to $1,313/oz; reflecting a continuation of the unusually low correlation we have seen between the two so far in 2018.

Performance Tables

(all figures in US$, source DataStream)

Performance
Montly Gold Report

The figures shown relate to past performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results.

Summary

Gold equities posted positive performance during the month in spite of the gold price declining -0.8% to $1,313/oz; reflecting a continuation of the unusually low correlation we have seen between the two so far in 2018. We see this as a short-term trend, driven by investor flows rather than fundamentals, and we expect a return to highly correlated returns moving forward.

Gold was relatively resilient in the face of a number of headwinds during April. The US dollar strengthened over the month, bucking the trend of the prior 12 months, whilst the US 10-year treasury yield rose above 3% for the first time since 2014. Broader equity markets were up over the month, with the MSCI World Index returning +1.2%, reducing ‘safe-haven’ interest for gold. Geopolitics was mixed, however, with rhetoric around a US / China trade war intensifying and the US and Allies carrying out airstrikes in Syria. Whilst, tensions between North and South Korea eased following successful peace talks. Elsewhere in the precious metals space, the platinum group metals (PGM’s) were weak with platinum and palladium prices off -3.3% and -0.7% respectively. Today, the Fund has no direct exposure to either metal as our optimism around the electrical vehicle theme makes us bearish on the long-term demand for PGM’s and loss making supply has been, to date, very slow to exit the industry.

Gold chart

 

Performance (%) Dec 12 - 13 Dec 13 - 14 Dec 14 - 15 Dec 15 - 16 Dec 16 - 17
FTSE Gold Mines -53.2% -15.2% -21.4% 59.6% 9.1%

Source: DataStream, data to 9th May 2018

The figures shown relate to past performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results.

The chart above shows that in more recent periods, gold shares are exhibiting a higher beta to moves in the gold price.

Outlook

Our base case is that the gold price remains relatively rangebound over the next 12 - 18 months. We are optimistic on the outlook for global economic growth, which could dampen ‘safe-haven’ interest for gold and act as a headwind. However, we see powerful arguments behind allocating to gold today, with geopolitical risk elevated and equity markets near all-time highs. We are watching real rates closely as this tends to be one of the most important drivers of the gold price. Should inflation rise faster than the US Fed raises rates this year, this would depress real rates and would be a material positive for gold. The US dollar will also be important, given its strong inverse relationship with gold. We are currently one year and fourth months into a downcycle for the US dollar and historically, dollar cycles tend to last for 5 years or more. Turning to gold equities, there are challenges present today such as cost inflation and risks around capital discipline. However, we do not believe their recent underperformance versus physical gold is fully justified and we therefore believe now to be an interesting time to be looking at gold equities on a tactical view.

Research in this document has been produced and may been acted on by BlackRock for its own purposes. The views expressed do not constitute investment advice and are subject to change.