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Market take
Podcast script_20250602
Wei Li
Global Chief Investment Strategist at BlackRock
Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take
Camera frame
What’s driving markets? Welcome to Market take. Each week, we’ll bring you our insights on the latest market and economic trends that are impacting investments. I’m your host, Wei Li, Global Chief Investment Strategist at BlackRock.
We just wrapped our internal semi-annual investment forum. It’s one of my favorite times of the year where the top 100 investors from across the platform, the globe and multiple strategy teams gather to debate the next six months.
Title slide: Finding opportunities in uncertainty
I will share my early impressions — three of them — before the release of our Midyear Outlook, early July.
1: Focusing on opportunity amid uncertainty
This is counterintuitive, because typically, when there’s a huge amount of uncertainty, investors do not want to take as much risk — but that’s a behavioral bias.
So, I was very happy to see a very deliberate effort to lean against that behavioral bias — to want to identify opportunities created by uncertainty, created by market dislocation.
2: An unstable macro backdrop
It used to be macro and policy making were sources of stability — and now they are sources of volatility and uncertainty, against the backdrop of persistent inflationary pressure, against the backdrop of rising debt.
So, there is greater recognition that macro is not as supportive as before.
3: The “what” and the “how” of risk taking
So, the “what” — we have talked about a lot in all our regular updates.
But “how” is very interesting. We want to have a more deliberate risk-taking framework in this environment where macro is no longer as reliable a friend as it used to be.
So, if not the macro environment, where else do we deploy our risk budget? Is it more relative value? Idiosyncratic risk taking? Is it more mega forces?
Outro: Here’s our Market take
Here’s our Market take…
What we like at the moment: US equities still a bright spot, and we still think that US [Treasury yields] could rise higher.
More to come in our Midyear Outlook.
Closing frame: Read details: blackrock.com/weekly-commentary
For details, read our weekly market commentary.
Go to www.blackrock.com/weekly-commentary.
Thank you for tuning in. If you’ve enjoyed this episode, subscribe to Market take wherever you get your podcasts.
At our internal Midyear Forum, our portfolio managers were laser focused on how and where to capture opportunities, even as uncertainty abounds.
US stocks rose last week on news of fresh US-China trade talks and a solid US jobs report – but it’s too soon to tell if tariffs are hurting the labor market.
We're looking at US CPI to see if tariffs are starting to push inflation up and see persistent inflation pressure limiting how far the Fed can cut rates this year.
BlackRock’s senior portfolio managers came together at our Midyear Forum last week. What was striking was the sharp focus on opportunities even as uncertainty abounds and as policymaking disrupts, rather than stabilizes, markets. They saw a plethora and shared techniques for spotting them. Their takeaways: look through near-term noise; be deliberate about the kinds of risk you’re taking; leverage AI; and watch for biases. More to come in our Midyear Outlook, out on July 1!
Sensitivity of US 10-year Treasury yields to economic uncertainty, 2003-2025
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream, June 2025. Notes: The red line shows the regression coefficient (a numerical measure of the linear relationship) between the US 10-year Treasury yield and economic surprises and trade uncertainty, namely that of Treasury yields to the Citi Economics Surprise Index and the Trade Policy Uncertainty index. The line is only an estimate of this relationship. Green lines are averages over 2003-19 and 2020-25. The actual relationship may differ.
A key takeaway from our end-2024 Forum was that policymaking would become a source of disruption rather than stability. That has played out this year. In the US, inflation is stickier and public debt and fiscal deficits have swelled since the pandemic. With rates structurally higher now, governments and central banks face sharper trade-offs between aiding growth and curbing inflation. This reduced room to maneuver – and the global economic impact of mega forces like geopolitical fragmentation and AI – makes the macro outlook less predictable. As a result, long-term assets like 10-year US Treasuries are more sensitive to incoming data, a stark departure from the pre-pandemic era. See the chart. Today, policy interventions are more likely to amplify than dampen market volatility. Yet at our Midyear Forum, our managers focused on the many opportunities, not the uncertainty.
One way our portfolio managers are finding opportunities in this environment? Looking through the near-term noise and focusing on the big picture. For all the ups and downs in markets since the start of the year, they agreed that the drivers of the best-performing companies’ equity gains have not actually changed much. They exchanged views on specific opportunities they see weathering or benefiting from the volatility. That included a shared conviction in the AI mega force driving further returns, pointing to Nvidia’s recent earnings beat despite tariff-related drags on earnings – but noted medium-term regulatory risk and the potential for slower deployment. They also like energy, again pointing to the AI mega force as one key driver of rising global energy demand that calls for more production of all kinds of energy. They noted how governments’ prioritization of homegrown, reliable power has opened up opportunities in select regions and industries.
Another key to finding opportunities? Taking risk differently. Our portfolio managers are refining their frameworks for taking risk, identifying multiple distinct types like macro, mega forces and relative value. One example: they are increasingly looking for pockets of relative value – such as that created by the dispersion we’re seeing in the government bond market. They are finding it across different bond maturities, especially as long-term bond yields are marching steadily upwards across developed markets. They are also finding it across countries as central banks take different approaches to managing the tougher trade-off between growth and inflation. Euro area bonds, for instance, are increasingly less correlated to swings in US Treasuries and stand to benefit from recent rate cuts to support growth in the region.
Our portfolio managers discussed several other techniques for spotting opportunities. They are leveraging AI to discern the signal from the noise, as well as tracking patterns and sentiment shifts in their own discussions. They also discussed the importance of being aware of and managing behavioral biases, recognizing that people are less likely to take risk when uncertainty is higher. Look out for our Midyear Outlook – coming on July 1 – which will discuss these themes in more depth.
Our portfolio managers are laser focused on opportunities even as policymaking adds to volatility. They’re finding opportunities by looking through near-term noise and taking risk differently. Watch for more in our Midyear Outlook.
The S&P 500 rose 1.5% last week after news emerged about fresh US-China trade talks and the US May jobs report showed solid job growth. Policy uncertainty is likely slowing company decision-making, so any tariff impact on the labor market may only come later. A mid-week dip in 10-year US Treasury yields was short-lived: they ended the week up slightly at 4.5% and 60 basis points above April lows. Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 1%.
We're monitoring the US CPI report for signs that tariffs are starting to feed through into consumer prices. Inflation has cooled in recent data, but we don't see this as a good guide to the future: we see tariff pressures building in coming months and expect a tight labor market to push up on services inflation. That will likely limit how far the Fed cuts policy rates.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of June 5, 2025. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in US dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (US, Germany and Italy), Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.
China CPI
US CPI
University of Michigan May sentiment survey
Read our past weekly commentaries here.
Our highest conviction views on six- to 12-month (tactical) and over five-year (strategic) horizons, June 2025
| Reasons | ||
|---|---|---|
| Tactical | Reasons | |
| US equities | ReasonsPolicy uncertainty and supply disruptions are weighing on near-term growth, raising the risk of a contraction. Yet we think US equities will regain global leadership as the AI theme keeps providing near-term earnings support and could drive productivity in the long term. | |
| Japanese equities | ReasonsWe are overweight. Ongoing shareholder-friendly corporate reforms remain a positive. We prefer unhedged exposures given the yen’s potential strength during bouts of market stress. | |
| Selective in fixed income | ReasonsPersistent deficits and sticky inflation in the US make us underweight long-term US Treasuries. We also prefer European credit – both investment grade and high yield – over the US on more attractive spreads. | |
| Strategic | Reasons | |
| Infrastructure equity and private credit | ReasonsWe see opportunities in infrastructure equity due to attractive relative valuations and mega forces. We think private credit will earn lending share as banks retreat – and at attractive returns. | |
| Fixed income granularity | ReasonsWe prefer short-term inflation-linked bonds over nominal developed market (DM) government bonds, as US tariffs could push up inflation. Within DM government bonds, we favor UK gilts over other regions. | |
| Equity granularity | ReasonsWe favor emerging over developed markets yet get selective in both. Emerging markets (EM) at the cross current of mega forces – like India – offer opportunities. In DM, we like Japan as the return of inflation and corporate reforms brighten the outlook. | |
| Comments | ||
Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective, June 2025. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security. | ||
Six- to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, June 2025
We have lengthened our tactical investment horizon back to six to 12 months. The table below reflects this and, importantly, leaves aside the opportunity for alpha, or the potential to generate above-benchmark returns – especially at a time of heightened volatility.
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, June 2025
| Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AssetEquities | Tactical view | Commentary | ||
| Asset Europe ex UK | Tactical view |
CommentaryWe are neutral, preferring the US and Japan. We see structural growth concerns and uncertainty over the impacts of rising defense spending, fiscal loosening and de-escalation in Ukraine. Yet room for more European Central Bank rate cuts can support an earnings recovery. | ||
| AssetGermany | Tactical view |
CommentaryWe are neutral. Valuations and earnings growth are supportive relative to peers, especially as ECB rate cuts ease financing conditions. Prolonged uncertainty about potential tariffs and fading euphoria over China’s stimulus could dent sentiment. | ||
| AssetFrance | Tactical view |
CommentaryWe are neutral. Ongoing political uncertainty could weigh on business conditions for French companies. Yet only a small share of the revenues and operations of major French firms is tied to domestic activity. | ||
| AssetItaly | Tactical view |
CommentaryWe are neutral. Valuations are supportive relative to peers. Yet past growth and earnings outperformance largely stemmed from significant fiscal stimulus in 2022-2023, which is unlikely to be sustained in the coming years. | ||
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a euro perspective, June 2025. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security. | ||||
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.