Asset		Tactical view	Commentary
Equities
United States			We are overweight. Contained damage to global growth from the Mideast conflict and strong earnings expectations – particularly in tech – keep us risk-on.
Europe			We are neutral. Europe’s high exposure to the energy shock from the Mideast conflict makes it vulnerable to higher inflation and lower growth.
UK			We are neutral. Valuations remain attractive relative to the U.S., but we see few near-term catalysts to trigger a shift.
Japan			We are neutral. Japan’s exposure to imported energy may erode strong equity gains powered by healthy corporate balance sheets and governance reforms.
Emerging markets (EM)			We are overweight yet stay selective. We favor Asian countries that manufacture critical AI components and Latin American energy and commodity exporters.
China			We are neutral. Trade relations with the U.S. have steadied, but property stress and an aging population still constrain the macro outlook. Relatively resilient activity limits near-term policy urgency. We like sectors like AI, automation and power generation.
Fixed income
Short U.S. Treasuries			We are neutral. Shorter-term bonds are relatively attractive as the market has woken up to persistent inflation and higher rates.
Long U.S. Treasuries			We are underweight. Yields already faced upward pressure from rising term premia, as investors demand more compensation for the risk of holding long-term debt. The recent energy price shock compounds this by aggravating pre-existing inflationary pressures.
Global inflation-linked bonds			We are neutral. We think inflation will settle above pre-pandemic levels, but markets may not price this in the near term as growth cools.
Euro area government bonds			We are neutral short-term European government bonds. The market has repriced the ECB policy path more in line with our view. We think increased German bond issuance to finance its fiscal stimulus package is already largely reflected in the current level of 10-year yields.
UK gilts			We are neutral. We expect volatility in gilts over the near-term. Gas powers much of the UK’s electricity, but storage is limited – making it especially vulnerable to a resurgence in inflation.
Japanese government bonds			We are underweight. Rate hikes, higher global term premium and heavy bond issuance will likely drive yields up further.
China government bonds			We are neutral. China bonds offer stability and diversification but developed market yields are higher and investor sentiment shifting towards equities limits upside.
U.S. agency MBS			We are overweight. Agency MBS offer higher income than Treasuries with similar risk, and may offer more diversification amid fiscal and inflationary pressures.
Short-term IG credit			We are neutral. Corporate strength means spreads are low, but they could widen if issuance increases.
Long-term IG credit			We are underweight. We prefer short-term bonds less exposed to interest rate risk over long-term bonds.
Global high yield			We are neutral. High yield offers more attractive carry and shorter duration, but we think dispersion between higher and weaker issuers will increase.
Asia credit			We are neutral. Overall yields are attractive and fundamentals are solid, but spreads are tight.
Emerging hard currency			We are overweight. EM hard-currency indexes lean towards Latin American commodity exporters such as Brazil that stand to benefit as Mideast supply plummets.
Emerging local currency			We are neutral. The U.S. dollar has been strengthening as a safe-haven currency in the wake of the Middle East conflict. This could reverse year-to-date gains driven by a falling USD.

Asset	Tactical view	Commentary
Equities
Europe ex UK		We are neutral. We would need to see more business-friendly policy and deeper capital markets for recent outperformance to continue and to justify a broad overweight. We stay selective, favoring financials, utilities and healthcare.
Germany		We are neutral. Increased spending on defense and infrastructure could boost the corporate sector. But valuations rose significantly in 2025 and 2026 earnings revisions for other countries are outpacing Germany.
France		We are neutral. Political uncertainty could continue to drag corporate earnings behind peer markets. Yet some major French firms are shielded from domestic weakness, as foreign activity accounts for most of their revenues and operations.
Italy		We are neutral. Valuations are supportive relative to peers. Yet we think the growth and earnings outperformance that characterized 2022-2023 is unlikely to persist as fiscal consolidation continues and the impact of prior stimulus peters out.
Spain		We are overweight. Valuations and earnings growth are supportive relative to peers. Financials, utilities and infrastructure stocks stand to gain from a strong economic backdrop and advancements in AI. High exposure to fast-growing areas like emerging markets is also supportive.
Netherlands		We are neutral. Technology and semiconductors feature heavily in the Dutch stock market, but that’s offset by other sectors seeing less favorable valuations and a weaker earnings outlook than European peers.
Switzerland		We are neutral. Valuations have improved, but the earnings outlook is weaker than other European markets. If global risk appetite stays strong, the index’s tilt to stable, less volatile sectors may weigh on performance.
UK		We are neutral. Valuations remain attractive relative to the U.S., but we see few near-term catalysts to trigger a shift.

Fixed income
Euro area government bonds		We are neutral short-term European government bonds. The market has repriced the ECB policy path more in line with our view. We think increased German bond issuance to finance its fiscal stimulus package is already largely reflected in the current level of 10-year yields.
German bunds		We are neutral. Markets have largely priced in fiscal stimulus and bond issuance, and expectations for policy rates align with our view.
French OATs		We are neutral. Political uncertainty, high budget deficits and slow structural reforms could stoke volatility, but current spreads incorporate these risks and we don’t expect a worsening from here.
Italian BTPs		We are neutral. Demand from Italian households is strong at current yield levels. Spreads tightened in line with its sovereign credit upgrade, but a persistently high debt-to-GDP levels means they likely won’t tighten further.
UK gilts		We are neutral. We expect volatility in gilts over the near-term. Gas powers much of the UK’s electricity, but storage is limited – making it especially vulnerable to a resurgence in inflation.
Swiss government bonds		We are neutral. We don’t think the Swiss National Bank will slash policy rates to below zero, as markets expect.
European inflation-protected securities		We are neutral. Our medium-term inflation expectations align with those implied in current market pricing.
European investment grade		We are neutral. We favor short- to medium-term debt and Europe over the U.S. An intense re-leveraging cycle to support the AI buildout could put upward pressure on U.S. spreads, making Europe relatively more attractive.
European high yield		We are overweight. Spreads hover near historic lows, but credit losses have been limited in this cycle and better economic growth in 2026 could reduce them further.

	Reasons
Tactical
Favor AI beneficiaries	We favor infrastructure and equipment supporting the AI buildout such as semiconductors, power and data centers. We think they stand to benefit no matter AI’s eventual winners or losers. We see the AI boom lifting U.S. corporate earnings, underpinning our U.S. equity overweight.
Selected international exposures	We like hard-currency EM debt on economic resilience, disciplined fiscal and monetary policy and a high ratio of commodities exporters. We’re also overweight EM equities, preferring commodity exporters and AI beneficiaries. In Europe, we favor equity sectors like infrastructure.
Evolving diversifiers	We suggest looking for “plan B” portfolio hedges such as thematic opportunities related to the AI buildout and search for energy security. Long-term U.S. Treasuries no longer provide a buffer against equity market declines, and gold also has shown to be an ineffective diversifier.
Strategic
Portfolio construction	We favor a scenario-based approach as AI winners and losers emerge. We lean on private markets and hedge funds for idiosyncratic returns and to anchor portfolios in mega forces.
Infrastructure equity and private credit	We find infrastructure equity valuations attractive as geopolitical fragmentation and the AI buildout underpin structural demand. We still like private credit but see an increase in dispersion of returns. This highlights the importance of manager selection.
Beyond market cap benchmarks	We get granular in public markets. We are underweight DM government bonds as inflationary pressure mounts. Within equities, we lean into both EM and DM equity – and are selective in both. We like stocks across both regions that are supported by the accelerating AI buildout.

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Tech in the lead

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