Asset		Tactical view	Commentary
Equities
United States			We are overweight. Strong corporate earnings, driven in part by the AI theme, are supported by a favorable macro backdrop: continued Federal Reserve easing, broad economic optimism and less policy uncertainty, particularly on the trade front.
Europe			We are neutral. We would need to see more business-friendly policy and deeper capital markets for recent outperformance to continue and to justify a broad overweight. We stay selective, favoring financials, utilities and healthcare.
UK			We are neutral. Valuations remain attractive relative to the U.S., but we see few near-term catalysts to trigger a shift.
Japan			We are overweight. Strong nominal GDP, healthy corporate capex and governance reforms – such as the decline of cross-shareholdings – all support equities.
Emerging markets (EM)			We are neutral. Economic resilience has improved, yet selectivity is key. We see opportunities across EM linked to AI and the energy transition and see the rewiring of supply chains benefiting countries like Mexico, Brazil and Vietnam.
China			We are neutral. Trade relations with the U.S. have steadied, but property stress and an aging population still constrain the macro outlook. Relatively resilient activity limits near-term policy urgency. We like sectors like AI, automation and power generation. We still favor China tech within our neutral view.
Fixed income
Short U.S. Treasuries			We are neutral. We see other assets offering more compelling returns as short-end yields have fallen alongside the U.S. policy rate.
Long U.S. Treasuries			We are underweight. We see high debt servicing costs and price-sensitive domestic buyers pushing up on term premium. Yet we see risks to this view: lower inflation and better tax revenues could push down yields near term.
Global inflation-linked bonds			We are neutral. We think inflation will settle above pre-pandemic levels, but markets may not price this in the near-term as growth cools.
Euro area government bonds			We are neutral. We agree with market forecasts of ECB policy and think current prices largely reflect increased German bond issuance to finance its fiscal stimulus package. We prefer government bonds outside Germany.
UK gilts			We are neutral. The recent budget aims to shore up market confidence through fiscal consolidation. But deferred borrowing cuts could bring back gilt market volatility.
Japanese government bonds			We are underweight. Rate hikes, higher global term premium and heavy bond issuance will likely drive yields up further.
China government bonds			We are neutral. China bonds offer stability and diversification but developed market yields are higher and investor sentiment shifting towards equities limits upside.
U.S. agency MBS			We are overweight. Agency MBS offer higher income than Treasuries with similar risk, and may offer more diversification amid fiscal and inflationary pressures.
Short-term IG credit			We are neutral. Corporate strength means spreads are low, but they could widen if issuance increases and investors rotate into U.S. Treasuries as the Fed cuts.
Long-term IG credit			We are underweight. We prefer short-term bonds less exposed to interest rate risk over long-term bonds.
Global high yield			We are neutral. High yield offers more attractive carry in an environment where growth is holding up – but we think dispersion between higher and weaker issuers will increase.
Asia credit			We are neutral. Overall yields are attractive and fundamentals are solid, but spreads are tight.
Emerging hard currency			We are overweight. A weaker U.S. dollar, lower U.S. rates and effective EM fiscal and monetary policy have improved economic resilience. We prefer high yield bonds.
Emerging local currency			We are neutral. A weaker U.S. dollar has boosted local currency EM debt, but it’s unclear if this weakening will persist.

Asset	Tactical view	Commentary
Equities
Europe ex UK		We are neutral. We would need to see more business-friendly policy and deeper capital markets for recent outperformance to continue and to justify a broad overweight. We stay selective, favoring financials, utilities and healthcare.
Germany		We are neutral. Increased spending on defense and infrastructure could boost the corporate sector. But valuations rose significantly in 2025 and 2026 earnings revisions for other countries are outpacing Germany.
France		We are neutral. Political uncertainty could continue to drag corporate earnings behind peer markets. Yet some major French firms are shielded from domestic weakness, as foreign activity accounts for most of their revenues and operations.
Italy		We are neutral. Valuations are supportive relative to peers. Yet we think the growth and earnings outperformance that characterized 2022-2023 is unlikely to persist as fiscal consolidation continues and the impact of prior stimulus peters out.
Spain		We are overweight. Valuations and earnings growth are supportive relative to peers. Financials, utilities and infrastructure stocks stand to gain from a strong economic backdrop and advancements in AI. High exposure to fast-growing areas like emerging markets is also supportive.
Netherlands		We are neutral. Technology and semiconductors feature heavily in the Dutch stock market, but that’s offset by other sectors seeing less favorable valuations and a weaker earnings outlook than European peers.
Switzerland		We are neutral. Valuations have improved, but the earnings outlook is weaker than other European markets. If global risk appetite stays strong, the index’s tilt to stable, less volatile sectors may weigh on performance.
UK		We are neutral. Valuations remain attractive relative to the U.S., but we see few near-term catalysts to trigger a shift.

Fixed income
Euro area government bonds		We are neutral. We agree with market forecasts of ECB policy and think current prices largely reflect increased German bond issuance to finance its fiscal stimulus package. We prefer government bonds outside Germany.
German bunds		We are neutral. Markets have largely priced in fiscal stimulus and bond issuance, and expectations for policy rates align with our view.
French OATs		We are neutral. Political uncertainty, high budget deficits and slow structural reforms could stoke volatility, but current spreads incorporate these risks and we don’t expect a worsening from here.
Italian BTPs		We are neutral. Demand from Italian households is strong at current yield levels. Spreads tightened in line with its sovereign credit upgrade, but a persistently high debt-to-GDP levels means they likely won’t tighten further.
UK gilts		We are neutral. The recent budget aims to shore up market confidence through fiscal consolidation. But deferred borrowing cuts could bring back gilt market volatility.
Swiss government bonds		We are neutral. We don’t think the Swiss National Bank will slash policy rates to below zero, as markets expect.
European inflation-protected securities		We are neutral. Our medium-term inflation expectations align with those implied in current market pricing.
European investment grade		We are neutral. We favor short- to medium-term debt and Europe over the U.S. An intense re-leveraging cycle to support the AI buildout could put upward pressure on U.S. spreads, making Europe relatively more attractive.
European high yield		We are overweight. Spreads hover near historic lows, but credit losses have been limited in this cycle and better economic growth in 2026 could reduce them further.

	Reasons
Tactical
Still favor AI	We see the AI theme supported by strong earnings, resilient profit margins and healthy balance sheets at large listed tech companies. Continued Fed easing into 2026 and reduced policy uncertainty underpin our overweight to U.S. equities.
Select international exposures	We like Japanese equities on strong nominal growth and corporate governance reforms. We stay selective in European equities, favoring financials, utilities and healthcare. In fixed income, we prefer EM due to improved economic resilience and disciplined fiscal and monetary policy.
Evolving diversifiers	We suggest looking for a “plan B” portfolio hedge as long-dated U.S. Treasuries no longer provide portfolio ballast – and to mind potential sentiment shifts. We like gold as a tactical play with idiosyncratic drivers but don’t see it as a long-term portfolio hedge.
Strategic
Portfolio construction	We favor a scenario-based approach as AI winners and losers emerge. We lean on private markets and hedge funds for idiosyncratic return and to anchor portfolios in mega forces.
Infrastructure equity and private credit	We find infrastructure equity valuations attractive and mega forces underpinning structural demand. We still like private credit but see dispersion ahead – highlighting the importance of manager selection.
Beyond market-cap benchmarks	We get granular in public markets. We favor DM government bonds outside the U.S. Within equities, we favor EM over DM yet get selective in both. In EM, we like India which sits at the intersection of mega forces. In DM, we like Japan as mild inflation and corporate reforms brighten the outlook.

Weekly market commentary

U.S. earnings: broadening strength

Powerful mega forces can trump the macro

Our bottom line

Market backdrop

Week ahead

Big calls

Tactical granular views

Euro-denominated tactical granular views

Wei Li

Carrie King

Bruno Rovelli

Natalie Gill