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Weekly video_20250714
Vivek Paul
Global Head of Portfolio Research, BlackRock Investment Institute
Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take
Camera frame
Even after the extension of the US tariff pause, uncertainty on who will bear the cost of tariffs means even greater dispersion in returns – and more opportunity to earn alpha, or above-benchmark returns.
Title slide: Why now is a great time for alpha
1: Greater potential alpha on offer
Wherever tariff levels land, some companies will be better able to pass on the cost than others. We think this will boost already elevated dispersion.
Unlike when the macro environment was more stable, persistent factor exposures – such as to growth, value or inflation – can now hurt portfolios. For investors, we think this requires watching for unintended static factor exposures and deploying active strategies to capture the additional alpha on offer.
2: Deliberately managing macro risk
What’s one way to do that? Reduce any drag from factor exposures by deliberately managing macro risk.
That can mean pivoting quickly as the macro situation changes – or leaning against market panic.
In both cases, it means understanding the current macro environment and being decisive about whether to stick or twist with current allocations.
3: Taking security-specific risk
Another approach to capturing alpha: avoiding macro factor risk in favor of security-specific risk.
Even within the magnificent seven of mostly big tech companies, we’re starting to see increased dispersion as certain companies capture the greatest benefits from the buildout of AI infrastructure and AI adoption. This creates alpha opportunities for those with insight into potential winners.
Outro: Here’s our Market take
We stick with our current overweight to US stocks. Market volatility hasn’t shown up in US corporate earnings and underlying economic conditions haven’t changed much for now.
Closing frame: Read details: blackrock.com/weekly-commentary
US tariffs may drive more dispersion in market and security returns, creating yet more opportunity to earn alpha. We stay risk on and overweight US equities.
US stocks ticked down and European stocks rose 1% last week after the US tariff pause was extended. US 10-year Treasury yields edged higher.
We’re eyeing global inflation data this week. We see early signs of tariff impacts in some parts of US CPI but watch for more price hikes as inventories run out.
The muted market reaction to last week’s extension of the US tariff pause shows what we’ve long argued: immutable economic laws limit how fast the world can change. We stay overweight US stocks, but don’t rule out more sharp near-term market moves. Uncertainty on who will bear tariff costs means yet more dispersion in returns – and more opportunity to earn alpha, or above-benchmark returns. Two ways to do so: dynamically managing macro risk and taking security-specific risk.
Three-year excess returns of US equity fund managers, 2010-2025
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any funds, strategy or security. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from eVestment and LSEG Datastream, July 2025. Notes: The chart compares the rolling three-year average excess return (into alpha and factor contribution) between 2010-2019 and 2020-2025 – excluding January-June 2020 for both top-quartile and median quartile US large cap equity managers in the eVestment universe. We use regression analysis to estimate the relationship between alpha-seeking manager performance and market conditions. Regression analysis is backwards-looking and is only an estimate of the relationship. The future relationship may differ.
We’ve long said that immutable economic laws – like supply chains can’t be rewired fast without major disruption – will prevent US tariffs rising back to April 2 levels. The extension of the tariff pause to August supports that thesis. Yet wherever tariffs land, it’s not yet clear who will bear the cost: companies, consumers or exporters. That uncertainty will heighten already elevated dispersion. Before the pandemic, when the macro environment was more stable, persistent factor exposures – such as to growth, value or inflation – typically didn’t hurt portfolios. That’s no longer so. For investors, we think this requires watching for unintended static factor exposures and deploying active strategies to capture the additional alpha on offer. Since 2020, top-performing portfolio managers have delivered more alpha. For median managers, static factor exposures now drag more on returns. See the chart.
One way to capture that alpha? Reduce the potential drag from static factor exposures by deliberately managing macro risk. That requires assessing the current macro environment. If your assessment of it changes, it means pivoting quickly. And if it hasn’t changed, it means looking through the noise and leaning against sharp market swings – a particularly rewarding strategy this year, as macro fundamentals are little changed so far. In both cases, it is about being decisive about whether to “stick or twist” with current allocations. Our approach now is to “stick.” Though the joint drop in US stocks, bonds and the dollar in April spurred questions about the long-term appeal of US assets, we think the current economic setup still supports US outperformance. We’ve seen volatility in markets, but it hasn’t shown up in US earnings. That consistency still counts.
Another approach to capturing alpha: avoiding macro factor risk in favor of security-specific risk. We see the AI mega force continuing to power US earnings growth – yet think some sectors and companies within that theme are positioned to perform better than others. After ChatGPT emerged, virtually any stock aligned with the AI theme got a boost – but now, we’re seeing outperformance concentrated among an increasingly small group of companies. The “Magnificent Seven” of mostly big tech companies are expected to post 14.8% growth in the second quarter, versus just 1.9% for other S&P 500 companies. And even within the Mag 7, we’re starting to see increased dispersion as certain companies capture the greatest benefits from the AI buildout (the race to build the infrastructure it needs) while others lead the way on AI adoption (with AI packaged into different apps and software). This creates alpha opportunities for those with insight into potential winners.
More broadly, we believe these mega forces are transforming the global economy. But no one yet knows the end state of that transformation. So, it will be key to quickly adapt portfolios – on both the tactical and longer-term, strategic horizon – as we learn more about that future world. Based on what we know now, and applying a granular lens, we like EU and US financials, EU and US industrials as domestic production and defense spending increase and US healthcare given population aging.
US tariffs could intensify already elevated dispersion, making this a more rewarding environment for alpha. Dynamically managing macro risk and taking security-specific risk can help capture it. We eye selective global opportunities.
The S&P 500 ticked down last week. Tech stocks and US-EU trade deal hopes had briefly driven the index to new highs even after the US tariff pause extension. Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose over 1%, near three-month highs. US 10-year Treasury yields ticked up to 4.42% after easing earlier in the week due to a strong bond auction. We’re watching the market’s ability to absorb heavy bond supply, as the US “Big Beautiful Bill” could widen fiscal deficits and trade tensions could cool foreign demand.
This week, we’re watching inflation data across the world, focusing on the US Core CPI rose slightly less than expected in May but showed some signs of tariffs feeding through to some consumer prices, like in appliances. We believe most of the impact is yet to come and will build up after companies run through the inventories they imported before tariffs were set.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of July 10, 2025. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in US dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (US, Germany and Italy), Bloomberg Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bloomberg Global Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.
China trade balance
US CPI; China GDP
UK CPI
Japan CPI
Read our past weekly commentaries here.
Our highest conviction views on six- to 12-month (tactical) and over five-year (strategic) horizons, July 2025
Reasons | ||
---|---|---|
Tactical | Reasons | |
US equities | ReasonsPolicy uncertainty and supply disruptions are weighing on near-term growth, raising the risk of a contraction. Yet we think US equities will regain global leadership as the AI theme keeps providing near-term earnings support and could drive productivity in the long term. | |
Using FX to enhance income | ReasonsFX hedging is now a source of income, especially when hedging euro area bonds back into US dollars. For example, 10-year government bonds in France or Spain offer more income when currency hedged than US investment grade credit, with yields above 5%. | |
Seeking alpha sources | ReasonsWe identify sources of risk taking to be more deliberate in earning alpha. These include the potential impact of regulatory changes on corporate earnings, spotting crowded positions where markets could snap back and opportunities to provide liquidity during periods of stress. | |
Strategic | Reasons | |
Infrastructure equity and private credit | ReasonsWe see opportunities in infrastructure equity due to attractive relative valuations and mega forces. We think private credit will earn lending share as banks retreat – and at attractive returns. | |
Fixed income granularity | ReasonsWe prefer short-term inflation-linked bonds over nominal developed market (DM) government bonds, as US tariffs could push up inflation. Within DM government bonds, we favor UK gilts over other regions. | |
Equity granularity | ReasonsWe favor emerging over developed markets yet get selective in both. Emerging markets (EM) at the cross current of mega forces – like India – offer opportunities. In DM, we like Japan as the return of inflation and corporate reforms brighten the outlook. | |
Comments | ||
Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective, July 2025. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security. |
Six- to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, July 2025
We have lengthened our tactical investment horizon back to six to 12 months. The table below reflects this and, importantly, leaves aside the opportunity for alpha, or the potential to generate above-benchmark returns – especially at a time of heightened volatility.
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, July 2025
Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
AssetEquities | Tactical view | Commentary | ||
Asset Europe ex UK | Tactical view |
CommentaryWe are neutral. Greater unity and a pro-growth agenda across Europe could boost activity, yet we are watching how the bloc tackles its structural challenges before turning more optimistic. We note opportunities in financials and industries tied to defense and infrastructure spending. | ||
AssetGermany | Tactical view |
CommentaryWe are neutral. Valuations and earnings growth are supportive relative to peers, especially as ECB rate cuts ease financing conditions. Prolonged uncertainty about potential tariffs and fading euphoria over China’s stimulus could dent sentiment. | ||
AssetFrance | Tactical view |
CommentaryWe are neutral. Ongoing political uncertainty could weigh on business conditions for French companies. Yet only a small share of the revenues and operations of major French firms is tied to domestic activity. | ||
AssetItaly | Tactical view |
CommentaryWe are neutral. Valuations are supportive relative to peers. Yet past growth and earnings outperformance largely stemmed from significant fiscal stimulus in 2022-2023, which is unlikely to be sustained in the coming years. | ||
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a euro perspective, July 2025. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security. |
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Sources: Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.