Skip to content
Welcome to the BlackRock site for intermediaries
Before you proceed, please take a moment to review and accept the following Terms and Conditions.
By accessing this website, you, as a client or potential client, accept to receive information on this website in more than one language. Should you require help understanding the content on this website, please reach out to your financial or other professional advisor.
Financial Intermediaries
On this website, Financial Intermediaries are investors that qualify as both a Professional Client and a Qualified Investor.
In summary, a person who can both be classified as a professional client under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (2014/65/EU, “MiFID”) and a qualified investor in accordance with the Prospectus Regulation (EU) 2017/1129) will generally need to meet one or more of the following requirements:
(1) An entity required to be authorised or regulated to operate in the financial markets. The following list includes all authorised entities carrying out the characteristic activities of the entities mentioned, whether authorised by an EEA State or a third country and whether or not authorised by reference to a directive:
(a) a credit institution;
(b) an investment firm;
(c) any other authorised or regulated financial institution;
(d) an insurance company;
(e) a collective investment scheme or the management company of such a scheme;
(f) a pension fund or the management company of a pension fund;
(g) a commodity or commodity derivatives dealer;
(h) a local;
(i) any other institutional investor;
(2) a large undertaking that meets two of the following tests: (i) a balance sheet total of EUR 20,000,000; (ii) an annual net turnover of EUR 40,000,000; (iii) own funds of EUR 2,000,000;
(3) a national or regional government, a public body that manages public debt, a central bank, an international or supranational institution (such as the World Bank, the IMF, the ECB, the EIB) or another similar international organization;
(4) a institutional investor whose main activity is to invest in financial instruments, including an entity dedicated to the securitisation of assets or other financing transactions;
(5) a natural person resident in an EEA State that permits the authorisation of natural persons as professional clients and qualified investors, who expressly asks to be treated as a professional client and a qualified investor and who meets at least two of the following criteria: (i) he/she has carried out transactions, in significant size, on securities markets at an average frequency of, at least, 10 per quarter over the previous four quarters before the application, (ii) the size of his/her financial instrument portfolio, defined as including cash deposits and financial instruments exceeds EUR 500,000, (iii) he/she works or has worked for at least one year in the financial sector in a professional position which requires knowledge of securities investment.
Please note that the above summary is provided for information purposes only. If you are uncertain as to whether you can both be classified as a professional client under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive and classed as a qualified investor under the Prospectus Regulation then you should seek independent advice.
Terms and conditions
Please read this page before proceeding, as it explains certain restrictions imposed by law on the distribution of this information and the countries in which our funds are authorised for sale. It is your responsibility to be aware of and to observe all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction.
Please note that you are required to read and accept the terms of our Privacy Policy before you are able to access our websites.
Once you have confirmed that you agree to the legal information in this document, and the Privacy Policy – by indicating your consent above – we will place a cookie on your computer to recognise you and prevent this page reappearing should you access this site, or other BlackRock sites, on future occasions. The cookie will expire after six months, or sooner should there be a material change to this important information.
By confirming that you have read this important information, you also:
(i) Agree that such information will apply to any subsequent access to the Individual investors (or Institutions / Intermediaries) section of this website by you, and that all such subsequent access will be subject to the disclaimers, risk warnings and other information set out herein; and
(ii) Warrant that no other person will access the Individual investors section of this website from the same computer and logon as you are currently using.
The offshore funds described in the following pages are administered and managed by companies within the BlackRock Group and can be marketed in certain jurisdictions only. It is your responsibility to be aware of the applicable laws and regulations of your country of residence. Further information is available in the Prospectus or other constitutional document for each fund.
This does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell shares in any of the funds referred to on this site, by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or distribution would be unlawful or in which the person making such offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so or to anyone to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation.
Specifically, the funds described are not available for distribution to or investment by US investors. The units/shares will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act") and, except in a transaction which does not violate the Securities Act or any other applicable US securities laws (including without limitation any applicable law of any of the States of the USA) may not be directly or indirectly offered or sold in the USA or any of its territories or possessions or areas subject to its jurisdiction or to or for the benefit of a US Person.
The funds described have not been, nor will they be, qualified for distribution to the public in Canada as no prospectus for these funds has been filed with any securities commission or regulatory authority in Canada or any province or territory thereof. This website is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed, as an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in Canada. No person resident in Canada for the purposes of the Income Tax Act (Canada) may purchase or accept a transfer of shares in the funds described unless he or she is eligible to do so under applicable Canadian or provincial laws.
Applications to invest in any fund referred to on this site, must only be made on the basis of the offer document relating to the specific investment (e.g. prospectus, simplified prospectus, key investor information document or other applicable terms and conditions).
As a result of money laundering regulations, additional documentation for identification purposes may be required when you make your investment. Details are contained in the relevant Prospectus or other constitutional document.
If you are unsure about the meaning of any information provided please consult your financial or other professional adviser.
The information contained on this site is subject to copyright with all rights reserved. It must not be reproduced, copied or redistributed in whole or in part.
The information contained on this site is published in good faith but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by BlackRock (Netherlands) B.V. (“BNBV”) or by any person as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied on as such. BNBV shall have no liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use or reliance on the information provided including without limitation, any loss of profit or any other damage, direct or consequential. No information on this site constitutes investment, tax, legal or any other advice.
Where a claim is brought against BlackRock by a third party in relation to your use of this website, you hereby agree to fully reimburse BlackRock for all losses, costs, actions, proceedings, claims, damages, expenses (including reasonable legal costs and expenses), or liabilities, whatsoever suffered or incurred directly by BlackRock as a consequence of improper use of this website. Neither party should be liable to the other for any loss or damage which may be suffered by the other party due to any cause beyond the first party's reasonable control including without limitation any power failure.
You acknowledge and agree that it is your responsibility to keep secure and confidential any passwords that we issue to you and your authorised employees and not to let such password(s) become public knowledge. If any password(s) become known by someone other than you and your authorised employees, you must change those particular password(s) immediately using the function available for this purpose on the Website.
You may leave the BNBV website when you access certain links on this website. In so doing, you may be proceeding to the site of an organisation that is not regulated. BNBV has not examined any of these websites and does not assume any responsibility for the contents of such websites nor the services, products or items offered through such websites.
BNBV shall have no liability for any data transmission errors such as data loss or damage or alteration of any kind, including, but not limited to, any direct, indirect or consequential damage, arising out of the use of the services provided herein.
Risk Warnings
Capital at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and are not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy.
Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.
BlackRock has not considered the suitability of this investment against your individual needs and risk tolerance. The data displayed provides summary information. Investment should be made on the basis of the relevant Prospectus which is available from the manager.
For your protection, telephone calls and/or other electronic communications which result in, or are intended to result in, transactions will be recorded or saved.
Investors should read the offering documents for further details including the risk factors before making an investment.
For investors in Sweden:
The prospectus and KID are available at BNBV, Stockholm branch, Malmskillnadsgatan 38, 111 51 Stockholm, Sweden. Investors should read the KID before making an investment decision.
Please note that while some of the BlackRock funds are "ring-fenced", others form part of a single company and are not. For BlackRock funds that do not have segregated liability status, in the event of a single BlackRock fund being unable to meet liabilities attributable to that BlackRock fund out of the assets attributable to it, the excess may be met out of the assets attributable to the other BlackRock funds within the same company. We refer you to the prospectus or other relevant terms and conditions of each BlackRock fund for further information in this regard.
The views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of BlackRock as a whole or any part thereof, nor do they constitute investment or any other advice.
Any research found on these pages has been procured and may have been acted on by BlackRock for its own purposes.
This site is operated and issued by BlackRock BNBV which is authorised and regulated by the Autoriteit Financiële Markten («AFM»). You can gain access to the AFM website from the following link: www.afm.nl. BlackRock (Netherlands) B.V. is a company registered in the Netherlands, No. 17068311. Registered Office: Amstelplein 1, 1096 HA, Amsterdam. BlackRock is a trading name of BlackRock (Netherlands) B.V. VAT No 007883250. General enquiries about this website should be sent to EMEAwebmaster@blackrock.com. This email address should not be used for any enquiries relating to investments.
©2024 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK is a trademark of BlackRock, Inc., or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.
Staying pro-risk into 2025
BlackRock Bottom Line: BlackRock Investment Institute 2025 Global Outlook
Speaker: Wei Li, Global Chief Investment Strategist, BlackRock
Script:
Mega forces, like the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and geopolitical fragmentation, are transforming economies. That means investors can no longer view the world in terms of business cycles or temporary deviations around stable long-term trends. Understanding the forces reshaping global economies can help investors identify unique opportunities.
Our three investment themes as we head into 2025 are: financing the future, rethinking investing and staying pro-risk.
Title: BlackRock Investment Institute 2025 Global Outlook
Our first theme is financing the future. Sizable capital will be needed as the rise of AI, the low-carbon transition and other mega forces drive a broad infrastructure buildout. With governments constrained by high public debt, capital markets will play a pivotal role in providing the funding needed. Private markets can offer exposure to broader sources of credit as well as to early-stage growth companies driving AI adoption.
Our second theme is rethinking investing. An ever-changing outlook calls for an ever-evolving portfolio. It calls into question many long-held investing principles, including the idea of a neutral benchmark portfolio like the traditional 60/40 portfolio mix of stocks and bonds. As mega forces reshape whole economies, we think investors should focus more on themes and less on broad asset classes. And with a wide range of possible outcomes, investors may wish to reassess portfolios more often.
Our third theme is staying pro-risk. We see the US still standing out versus other developed markets thanks to stronger economic growth and its ability to capitalise on mega forces. We recognize some US equity valuations look expensive but don’t think historical averages are necessarily a good guide amid a transformation.
The bottom line is: Moving into 2025, we think investors could benefit from viewing the world through the lens of transformation. We stay risk-on as we look for transformation beneficiaries. We think being more dynamic with portfolios and getting granular with views will both be essential.
Transformation underway
Structural shifts, like artificial intelligence, are reshaping economies. We stay pro-risk and up our US stocks overweight as we see beneficiaries broadening.
Market backdrop
US stocks hit new highs last week. November’s US jobs report showed wage growth above the level that would allow inflation to settle at the Fed’s target.
Week ahead
We see the European Central Bank cutting rates by 25 basis points this week. US CPI should show services inflation staying sticky on solid wage gains.
This year has reinforced that we are not in a typical business cycle. Instead, mega forces – big structural shifts like the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) – are transforming economies and altering their long-term trajectories. That calls for a new way of investing: being more dynamic and putting more focus on themes and less on broad asset classes. We stay risk-on in our 2025 Outlook and up our US equity overweight as the AI theme broadens out – but stand ready to dial down risk.
Paragraph-2,Image-1,Paragraph-3
Paragraph-4,Advance Static Table-1,Paragraph-5,Advance Static Table-2,Paragraph-6,Advance Static Table-3
Ever-bigger share
“Magnificent 7” market cap as a share of the S&P 500, 1995-2024
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. It is not possible to invest in an index. Indexes are unmanaged and performance does not account for fees. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream, December 2024. Notes: The chart shows the combined market capitalisation (cap) of the “magnificent 7” stocks (Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) as a share of the S&P 500’s total market cap. The chart sums up the market cap of each stock as they went public, capturing Amazon from 1997 onwards, Nvidia from 1999, Google from 2004, Tesla from 2010 and Meta from 2012.
We think investors should no longer think in terms of business cycles, with short-term fluctuations in activity leading to expansion or recession. Instead, mega forces are driving an economic transformation that could keep shifting the long-term trend, making a wide range of very different outcomes possible – on the upside and downside. Building the transformation – such as with AI data centers – requires a major infrastructure buildout. Financing the transformation given constrained public finances means that capital markets, including private markets, will be key. Markets are starting to reflect these shifts: The “magnificent 7” of mostly mega-cap tech shares now make up almost a third of the S&P 500’s market capitalisation. See the chart. We think this calls for rethinking investing, and challenges investment strategies based on valuations converging back to historical trends.
We follow that playbook as we stay pro-risk headed into 2025. We increase our overweight to US stocks as we expect AI beneficiaries to broaden out beyond tech. We’re also confident US equities can keep outpacing global peers given the ability to better capitalise on mega forces, a favorable growth outlook, potential tax cuts and regulatory easing. Signposts for changing our view include any surge in long-term bond yields or an escalation in trade protectionism. Pricey US equity valuations, based on price-to-earnings ratios and equity risk premiums, don’t yet change our view. Why? We find valuations affect near-term returns less than long-term returns. The equity risk premium – a common valuation gauge – for the equal-weighted S&P 500 is near its long-term average, according to LSEG data, and thus looks less affected by the transformation.
Harnessing the transformation
US outperformance is unlikely to extend to government bonds. We go tactically underweight long-term Treasuries as we expect investors to demand more compensation for the risk of holding them given persistent budget deficits, sticky inflation and greater bond market volatility. We favor government bonds in other developed markets. Globally, Japanese equities stand out due to corporate reforms and the return of mild inflation that are driving corporate pricing power and earnings growth.
More broadly, we think investors can find opportunities by tapping into the transformation we expect in the real economy. AI and the low-carbon transition require investment potentially on par with the Industrial Revolution. Major tech companies are starting to rival the US government on research and development spending. Plus, meeting growing energy demand will generate US$3.5 trillion of investment per year this decade, according to the BlackRock Investment Institute Transition Scenario. We see private markets playing a vital role in financing the future. Big spending on AI and the low-carbon transition plus rising geopolitical fragmentation is likely to cause persistent US inflation pressures. And an aging workforce could start to bite as immigration slows, likely keeping wage growth too high for inflation to return to the Fed’s 2% target. We think that means the Fed will keep rates well above pre-pandemic levels even after cutting some in 2025.
Our bottom line
Mega forces are reshaping economies and markets. That requires a new playbook challenging old investment rules. We stay pro-risk to kick off 2025 but stand ready to dial down risk as catalysts emerge. Read our 2025 Global Outlook.
Market backdrop
US stocks hit an all-time high last week. US payrolls for November showed the economy is adding jobs at a healthy clip. Wage growth remains above the level that would allow inflation to settle at the Fed’s 2% target – a reason we do not see the Fed cutting rates sharply. US 10-year Treasury yields slid to around 4.15%, down about 35 basis points in the past few weeks. Spreads between French and German 10-year yields edged off 12-year highs reached on France’s political stalemate.
This week we expect the ECB to cut interest rates by 25 basis points as euro area core inflation has kept normalising. We’re monitoring the ECB’s updated growth and inflation projections as consumer spending shows signs of recovery. Yet fiscal consolidation and the potential impact of US tariffs cloud the outlook. In the US, we watch for whether the November CPI will keep showing services inflation catching up with wage growth, keeping core inflation sticky.
Week ahead
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of Dec. 5, 2024. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in US dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (US, Germany and Italy), Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.
Dec. 9
China CPI and PPI
Dec. 10
China trade data
Dec. 11
US CPI
Dec. 12
European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision
Read our past weekly commentaries here.
Big calls
Our highest conviction views on tactical (6-12 month) and strategic (long-term) horizons, December 2024
| Reasons | ||
|---|---|---|
| Tactical | ||
| US equities | We see the AI buildout and adoption creating opportunities across sectors. We tap into beneficiaries outside the tech sector. Robust economic growth, broad earnings growth and a quality tilt underpin our conviction and overweight in US stocks versus other regions. We see valuations for big tech backed by strong earnings, and less lofty valuations for other sectors. | |
| Japanese equities | A brighter outlook for Japan’s economy and corporate reforms are driving improved earnings and shareholder returns. Yet the potential drag on earnings from a stronger yen is a risk. | |
| Selective in fixed income | Persistent deficits and sticky inflation in the US make us more positive on fixed income elsewhere, notably Europe. We are underweight long-term US Treasuries and like UK gilts instead. We also prefer European credit – both investment grade and high yield – over the US on cheaper valuations. | |
| Strategic | ||
| Infrastructure equity and private credit | We see opportunities in infrastructure equity due to attractive relative valuations and mega forces. We think private credit will earn lending share as banks retreat – and at attractive returns. | |
| Fixed income granularity | We prefer short- and medium-term investment grade credit, which offers similar yields with less interest rate risk than long-dated credit. We also like short-term government bonds in the US and euro area and UK gilts overall. | |
| Equity granularity | We favor emerging over developed markets yet get selective in both. EMs at the cross current of mega forces – like India and Saudi Arabia – offer opportunities. In DM, we like Japan as the return of inflation and corporate reforms brighten our outlook. | |
Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective, December 2024. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security.
Tactical granular views
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, December 2024
Our approach is to first determine asset allocations based on our macro outlook – and what’s in the price. The table below reflects this. It leaves aside the opportunity for alpha, or the potential to generate above-benchmark returns. The new regime is not conducive to static exposures to broad asset classes, in our view, but it is creating more space for alpha. For example, the alpha opportunity in highly efficient DM equities markets historically has been low. That’s no longer the case, we think, thanks to greater volatility, macro uncertainty and dispersion of returns. The new regime puts a premium on insights and skill, in our view.
| Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ||||||
| United States |  |
We are overweight as the AI theme and earnings growth broaden. Valuations for AI beneficiaries are supported by tech companies delivering on earnings. Resilient growth and Fed rate cuts support sentiment. Risks include any long-term yield surges or escalating trade protectionism. | ||||
| Europe |  |
We are underweight relative to the US, Japan and the UK – our preferred markets. Valuations are fair. A growth pickup and European Central Bank rate cuts support a modest earnings recovery. Yet political uncertainty could keep investors cautious. | ||||
| UK |  |
We are neutral. Political stability could improve investor sentiment. Yet an increase in the corporate tax burden could hurt profit margins near term | ||||
| Japan |  |
We are overweight. A brighter outlook for Japan’s economy and corporate reforms are driving improved earnings and shareholder returns. Yet a stronger yen dragging on earnings is a risk. | ||||
| Emerging markets |  |
We are neutral. The growth and earnings outlook is mixed. We see valuations for India and Taiwan looking high. | ||||
| China |  |
We are modestly overweight. China’s fiscal stimulus is not yet enough to address the drags on economic growth, but we think stocks are at attractive valuations to DM shares. We stand ready to pivot. We are cautious long term given China’s structural challenges. | ||||
| Fixed income | ||||||
| Short US Treasuries |  |
We are neutral. Markets are pricing in fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts and their policy rate expectations are now roughly in line with our views. | ||||
| Long US Treasuries |  |
We are underweight. Persistent budget deficits and geopolitical fragmentation could drive term premium up over the near term. We prefer intermediate maturities less vulnerable to investors demanding more term premium. | ||||
| Global inflation-linked bonds | |
We are neutral. We see higher medium-term inflation, but cooling inflation and growth may matter more near term. | ||||
| Euro area government bonds | |
We are neutral. Market pricing reflects policy rates in line with our expectations and 10-year yields are off their highs. Political uncertainty remains a risk to fiscal sustainability. | ||||
| UK Gilts | |
We are overweight. Gilt yields offer attractive income, and we think the Bank of England will cut rates more than the market is pricing given a soft economy. | ||||
| Japan government bonds |  |
We are underweight. Stock returns look more attractive to us. We see some of the least attractive returns in JGBs. | ||||
| China government bonds | |
We are neutral. Bonds are supported by looser policy. Yet we find yields more attractive in short-term DM paper. | ||||
| US agency MBS | |
We are neutral. We see agency MBS as a high-quality exposure in a diversified bond allocation and prefer it to IG. | ||||
| Short-term IG credit | |
We are overweight. Short-term bonds better compensate for interest rate risk. | ||||
| Long-term IG credit | |
We are underweight. Spreads are tight, so we prefer taking risk in equities from a whole portfolio perspective. We prefer Europe over the US | ||||
| Global high yield | |
We are neutral. Spreads are tight, but the total income makes it more attractive than IG. We prefer Europe. | ||||
| Asia credit | |
We are neutral. We don’t find valuations compelling enough to turn more positive. | ||||
| Emerging market - hard currency | |
We are neutral. The asset class has performed well due to its quality, attractive yields and EM central bank rate cuts. We think those rate cuts may soon be paused. | ||||
| Emerging market - local currency | |
We are neutral. Yields have fallen closer to US Treasury yields, and EM central banks look to be turning more cautious after cutting policy rates sharply. | ||||
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The statements on alpha do not consider fees. Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.
Euro-denominated tactical granular views
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, December 2024
| Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ||||
| Europe ex UK | |
We are underweight relative to the US and Japan, which remain our preferred markets. Valuations are fair. A growth pickup and European Central Bank rate cuts support a modest earnings recovery. Yet geopolitical tensions, domestic political uncertainty, potential tariffs, and fading optimism about China’s stimulus could weigh on investor sentiment. | ||
| Germany | |
We are underweight. Valuations and earnings momentum offer modest support compared to peers, especially as ECB rate cuts ease financing conditions. Prolonged uncertainty over the next government, potential tariffs, and fading optimism about China’s stimulus could dampen sentiment. | ||
| France | |
We are underweight. The outcome of France’s parliamentary election and ongoing political uncertainty could weigh on business conditions for French companies. Yet, only a small share of the revenues and operations of major French firms is tied to domestic activity. | ||
| Italy | |
We are underweight. Valuations are supportive relative to peers, but past growth and earnings outperformance largely stemmed from significant fiscal stimulus in 2022-2023, which is unlikely to be sustained in the coming years. | ||
| Spain | |
We are neutral. Valuations and earnings momentum are supportive compared to other euro area stocks. The utilities sector stands to gain from an improving economic backdrop and advancements in AI. | ||
| Netherlands | |
We are underweight. The Dutch stock market’s tilt to technology and semiconductors—key beneficiaries of rising AI demand—is offset by less favorable valuations and a weaker earnings outlook compared to European peers. | ||
| Switzerland | |
We are underweight, consistent with our broader European view. Earnings have improved, but valuations remain elevated compared to other European markets. The index’s defensive tilt may offer less support if global risk appetite stays strong. | ||
| UK | |
We are neutral. Political stability could improve investor sentiment. Yet an increase in the corporate tax burden could hurt profit margins near term. | ||
| Fixed income | ||||
| Euro area government bonds | |
We are neutral. Market pricing aligns with our policy rate expectations, and 10-year yields have retreated from their highs. Political uncertainty poses risks to fiscal sustainability, but select peripheral markets are bolstered by stronger growth and improving credit ratings. | ||
| German bunds | |
We are neutral. Market pricing aligns with our policy rate expectations, and 10-year yields have eased from their highs, partly due to growth concerns. We are watching the fiscal flexibility debate ahead of upcoming elections. | ||
| French OATs | |
We are neutral. France faces challenges from elevated political uncertainty, persistent budget deficits, and a slower pace of structural reforms. The EU has already warned the country for breaching fiscal rules, and its sovereign credit rating was downgraded earlier this year. | ||
| Italian BTPs | |
We are neutral. The spread over German bunds looks tight given its budget deficits and debt profile, prompting a warning from the EU. Other domestic factors remain supportive, with growth holding up relative to the rest of the euro area and Italian households showing solid demand to hold BTPs at higher yields. | ||
| UK gilts | |
We are overweight. Gilt yields offer attractive income, and we think the Bank of England will cut rates more than the market is pricing given a soft economy. | ||
| Swiss government bonds | |
We are neutral. The Swiss National Bank has cut policy rates this year as inflationary pressures eased but is unlikely to reduce rates significantly further. | ||
| European inflation-linked bonds | |
We are neutral. We see higher medium-term inflation, but cooling inflation and sluggish growth may matter more near term. | ||
| European investment grade credit | |
We are neutral on European investment grade credit, favoring short- to medium-term paper for quality income. We prefer European investment grade over the US, as spreads are relatively wider. | ||
| European high yield | |
We are overweight. The income potential is attractive, and we prefer European high yield for its more appealing valuations, higher quality, and shorter duration compared to the US. In our view, spreads adequately compensate for the risk of a potential rise in defaults. | ||
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a euro perspective, December 2024. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.
Meet the authors
Jean Boivin
Head – BlackRock Investment Institute
Wei Li
Global Chief Investment Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
Vivek Paul
Global Head of Portfolio Research – BlackRock Investment Institute
Ben Powell
Chief Investment Strategist for the Middle East and APAC — BlackRock Investment Institute
This material is for distribution to Professional Clients (as defined by the FCA Rules) and should not be relied upon by any other persons.
Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL. Tel: 020 7743 3000. Registered in England No. 2020394. For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded. BlackRock is a trading name of BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited.
Sources: Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.
Any research in this document has been procured and may have been acted on by BlackRock for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available only incidentally. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. They do not necessarily reflect the views of any company in the BlackRock Group or any part thereof and no assurances are made as to their accuracy.
The opinions expressed in this paper may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this paper are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents.
This paper may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this paper is at the sole discretion of the reader.
This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest in any BlackRock funds and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer.
© 2024 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights reserved. BLACKROCK, BLACKROCK SOLUTIONS, iSHARES, BUILD ON BLACKROCK and SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY logo are registered and unregistered trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.
Explore more
About us
Products
Themes
Insights
ETFs & Indexing
© 2024 BlackRock, Inc. All rights reserved.
BIIM1224U/M-4080169