Market insights

Weekly market commentary

2023-11-27
  • BlackRock Investment Institute

Getting granular in our strategic views

Market take

Weekly video_20231127

Vivek Paul

Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take

Camera frame

Elevated levels of bond volatility are evidence of the new macro and market regime in action, and confirm the benefits of being agile with our strategic views of five years or longer.

Title slide: Staying agile with our strategic views

We upgrade sovereign bonds in developed markets (DMs) to neutral but this masks two stories - we stay underweight long-term bonds but turn overweight short- and mid-dated bonds. We also trim our preference for inflation-linked bonds, though this remains our largest overweight, and cut DM stocks to neutral.

Here’s why:

1: Yields to rise further

Our 3 1/2 year underweight to all DM government bonds is over, as market yields have risen in line with our positioning. At an aggregate level we have turned neutral, but this is driven by a preference for short- and mid-maturity bonds – and what’s more noteworthy is what we didn’t shift. We remain underweight long-term bonds.

Why?

We think long-term yields will resume their climb as investors demand more term premium - compensation, for the risk of holding long-term bonds.

2: Higher inflation for longer

We believe higher inflation, plus greater fiscal-and climate-related spending likely mean the level of policy rates will be materially higher than before the pandemic.

Our updated view of higher neutral rates in the long term prompts a reassessment of equity valuations. Our strategic overweight to DM stocks – which we’ve held since the before end of Western lockdowns - is now trimmed to neutral. Long-term stock valuations look about fair to us, rather than warranting a higher allocation than usual. Though even with the downgrade to neutral, U.S. stocks remains our largest portfolio allocation.

Outro: Here’s our Market take

We think the new volatile economic regime calls for more nimble and dynamic strategic views.

Closing frame: Read details:

www.blackrock.com/weekly-commentary.

Quarterly strategic update

We turn more positive on short- to medium-term developed market (DM) sovereign bonds in our latest strategic update. We trim DM stocks to neutral.

Market backdrop

Ten-year US Treasury yields steadied after their drop from 16-year highs. We think yields will stay volatile but ultimately resume their climb in the long term.

Week ahead

US PCE inflation data out this week should gauge if price pressures are cooling further. We don’t see inflation coming down to the Fed’s 2% target long term.

We think granularity is key as government bond yields hit multi-year highs. We turn more positive on short- and medium-term DM bonds as we factor in high interest rates for longer in our strategic views of five years and over. We stay underweight long-term bonds, leaving us neutral DM bonds overall in our latest quarterly update. We like inflation-linked bonds and cut DM stocks to neutral on valuations. We remain underweight credit, preferring income in private markets.

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Riskier long-term bonds

DM government bond term premium, 1985-2023

A red dashed line in the chart shows our estimate for investors to demand term premium of 1-1.25% on a horizon of five years and beyond for the risk of holding long-term bonds in the U.S., Germany and UK.

Forward-looking estimates may not come to pass. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, November 2023. Notes: The chart shows the historical and estimated term premium ranges. The range captures three regions: US, Germany and UK. Term premium is defined as the compensation investors demand for the risk of holding long-term bonds. Our historical estimates of term premium are based on the Adrian, Crump and Moench (2013) “ACM” model, described in detail here: Our estimated range represents a five-year view, from 2023 through 2028.

We had been underweight DM government bonds since March 2020 as we expected yields to rise. We gradually trimmed the underweight as our view played out, increasingly preferring shorter-dated bonds. Now with yields even higher, we explicitly carve out an overweight on DM short- and medium-term government bonds. We stay underweight long-term bonds as we see room for long-term yields to climb again. Why? Investors will demand more term premium, or compensation for the risk of holding these bonds across DMs, in our view. See the chart. This is due to more uncertain and volatile inflation spurring heightened bond market volatility. We also see weaker demand for bonds amid rising debt levels. Central banks are no longer reinvesting the proceeds of maturing bonds as part of quantitative tightening, and investors are struggling to digest a flood of new bonds.

The path to higher long-term yields is unlikely to be straight in the next five years. Indeed, we recently went neutral long-term Treasuries from a tactical, six-to-12-month view because we see more even odds of yields swinging in either direction. Inflation-linked bonds remain our highest-conviction overweight on the strategic horizon. Sure, inflation is falling in the near term as pandemic-era mismatches unwind, with consumer spending shifting back to services from goods. But in the long run, we see inflation well above 2% central bank policy targets. The reasons are big structural shifts constraining supply:  slowing labor force growth, geopolitical fragmentation and the low-carbon transition. That’s why we see central banks keeping interest rates high for longer. Our updated strategic views bake in the impact of this.

Staying nimble and selective

We also turn neutral DM equities, with US stocks remaining our largest portfolio allocation. We had been overweight since the end of Western pandemic lockdowns due to attractive valuations. Bond and stock markets have been moving toward our view of high-for-longer rates in fits and starts, and long-term valuations for stocks now look about fair to us. This is why we have turned neutral on the broad asset class – and look for opportunities within. The new regime has created uncertainty, resulting in greater dispersion of sector and individual security returns. How to capture these potential opportunities to generate above-benchmark returns? Nimble portfolios, getting granular and investment skill are part of the answer, we think.

These changes demonstrate why we think it’s important to be agile with strategic views. This new, more volatile regime means the relative attraction of different assets is shifting faster than we have been used to for a generation. Credit is a case in point. Just a year ago, we were overweight investment grade credit because spreads looked attractive versus our long-run expectations. Then spreads tightened materially, and we turned underweight as we expect them to widen in the long run. High-for-longer rates will likely eat into corporate margins and earnings, in our view, especially as companies refinance debt. We see private credit lenders benefitting from refinancing activity as banks curb lending due to high rates reshaping the financial industry. That said, private markets are complex and not suitable for all investors. And private credit is not immune to the tough economic backdrop, but we think current yields compensate investors for the risks.

Our bottom line

High rates are a core tenet of the new regime. We carve out a strategic overweight on shorter-term DM bonds and stick to our preference for inflation-linked bonds. We go neutral DM stocks but see granular opportunities.

Market backdrop

The S&P 500 hit a four-month high, taking its gains to about 11% from the October lows on a holiday-shortened trading week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 hit its highest level since January 2022. Ten-year US Treasury yields inched up back toward 4.5% but are still down about 50 basis points from their October peak. We think yields will stay volatile but resume their march as investors start to demand more term premium – a key part of our view on both tactical and strategic horizons.

We are monitoring US PCE inflation data – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – due this week to gauge if inflation is on track to fall to 2%. We think US inflation will near the Fed’s 2% policy target in the second half of 2024 but will not stay there long term. We think euro area inflation will also head back to target next year as economic activity stagnates.

Read our past weekly commentaries here.

Week ahead

The chart shows that U.S. equities are the best performing asset year-to-date among a selected group of assets, while Brent crude is the worst.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of Nov. 23, 2023. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point in the last 12-months, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in US dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (US, Germany and Italy), Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.

Nov. 29

Germany CPI

Nov. 30

US PCE; euro area flash CPI and unemployment

Dec. 1

US ISM manufacturing PMI

Investment themes

01

Holding tight

Markets have come around to the view that central banks will not quickly ease policy in a world shaped by supply constraints. We see them keeping policy tight to lean against inflationary pressures.

02

Pivoting to new opportunities

Higher macro and market volatility has brought more divergent security performance relative to the broader market. Benefiting from this requires granularity and nimbleness.

03

Harnessing mega forces

The new regime is shaped by five structural forces we think are poised to create big shifts in profitability across economies and sectors. The key is identifying catalysts that can supercharge them and whether the shifts are priced by markets today.

Directional views

Strategic (long-term) and tactical (6-12 month) views on broad asset classes, November 2023.

Legend Granular

Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security.

Our granular views indicate how we think individual assets will perform against broad asset classes. We indicate different levels of conviction.

Tactical granular views

Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, November 2023.

Legend Granular

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.

Euro-denominated tactical granular views

Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, November 2023.

Legend Granular

Asset Tactical view Commentary
Equities    
 Europe ex UK Europe ex-UK: tactical Underweight -1 We are underweight. We see the European Central Bank holding policy tight in a slowdown and the support to growth from lower energy prices is fading.
Germany Germany: tactical Underweight -1 We are underweight. Valuations are moderately supportive relative to peers, but we see earnings under pressure from higher interest rates, slower global growth and medium-term uncertainty on energy supply. Longer term, we think the low-carbon transition may bring opportunities.
France France: tactical Underweight -1 We are underweight. Relatively richer valuations and a potential drag to earnings from weaker consumption amid higher interest rates offset the positive impact from past productivity enhancing reforms and favorable energy mix.
Italy Italy: tactical Underweight -1 We are underweight. The economy’s relatively weak credit fundamentals amid global tightening financial conditions keep us cautious even though valuations and earnings revision trends look attractive versus peers.
Spain Spain: tactical Underweight -1 We are underweight. Valuations and earnings momentum are supportive relative to peers, but the uncertain outcome of Spanish elections is a temporary headwind.
Netherlands Netherlands: tactical Underweight -1 We are underweight. The Dutch stock markets' tilt to technology and semiconductors, a key beneficiary of higher demand for AI, is offset by relatively less favorable valuations and earnings momentum than European peers.
Switzerland Switzerland: tactical Overweight +1 We are overweight. We hold a relative preference. The index’s high weights to defensive sectors like health care and non-discretionary consumer goods provide a cushion amid heightened global macro uncertainty. Valuations remain high versus peers and a strong currency is a drag on export competitiveness.
UK German bunds: tactical Neutral We are neutral. We find that attractive valuations better reflect the weak growth outlook and the Bank of England’s sharp rate hikes to deal with sticky inflation.
Fixed income    
Euro area government bonds Euro area government bonds: tactical Overweight +1 We are overweight. Market pricing reflects policy rates staying higher for longer even as growth deteriorates. Widening peripheral bond spreads remain a risk.
German bunds German bunds: tactical Overweight +1 We are overweight. Market pricing reflects policy rates staying high for longer even as growth deteriorates. We hold a preference over Italian BTPs.
French OATs French OATs: tactical Overweight +1 We are overweight. Valuations look moderately compelling compared to peripheral bonds, with French spreads to German bonds hovering above historical averages. Elevated French public debt and a slower pace of structural reforms remain headwinds.
Italian BTPs German bunds: tactical Neutral We are neutral. The spread over German Bunds looks tight amid deteriorating macro and restrictive ECB policy. Yet domestic factors remain supportive, namely a more balanced current account and prudent fiscal stance. We see income helping to compensate for the slightly wider spreads we expect.
UK gilts UK gilts: tactical Overweight +1 We are overweight. Gilt yields are holding near their highest in 15 years. Markets are pricing in restrictive Bank of England policy rates for longer than we expect.
Swiss government bonds Swiss government bonds: tactical Neutral We are neutral. We don’t see the SNB hiking rates as much as the ECB given relatively subdued inflation and a strong currency. Further upward pressure on yields appears limited given global macro uncertainty.
European inflation-linked bonds Euro area inflation-lined bonds: tactical Underweight -1 We prefer the US over the euro area. We see markets overestimating how persistent inflation in the euro area will be relative to the US
European investment grade credit European investment grade credit: tactical Neutral We are neutral European investment-grade credit. Spreads have tightened vs. government bonds, and we now see less room for outperformance given weaker growth prospects amid restrictive monetary policy. We continue to prefer European investment grade over the US given more attractive valuations amid decent income.
European high yield European high yield: tactical Neutral We are neutral. We find the income potential attractive yet prefer up-in-quality credit exposures amid a worsening macro backdrop.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a euro perspective, June 2023. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.

Meet the authors
Jean Boivin
Head – BlackRock Investment Institute
Wei Li
Global Chief Investment Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
Vivek Paul
Global Head of Portfolio Research – BlackRock Investment Institute
Devan Nathwani
Portfolio Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute

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Sources: Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.

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