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Finding opportunities in uncertainty
Market take
Podcast script_20250602
Wei Li
Global Chief Investment Strategist at BlackRock
Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take
Camera frame
What’s driving markets? Welcome to Market take. Each week, we’ll bring you our insights on the latest market and economic trends that are impacting investments. I’m your host, Wei Li, Global Chief Investment Strategist at BlackRock.
We just wrapped our internal semi-annual investment forum. It’s one of my favorite times of the year where the top 100 investors from across the platform, the globe and multiple strategy teams gather to debate the next six months.
Title slide: Finding opportunities in uncertainty
I will share my early impressions — three of them — before the release of our Midyear Outlook, early July.
1: Focusing on opportunity amid uncertainty
This is counterintuitive, because typically, when there’s a huge amount of uncertainty, investors do not want to take as much risk — but that’s a behavioral bias.
So, I was very happy to see a very deliberate effort to lean against that behavioral bias — to want to identify opportunities created by uncertainty, created by market dislocation.
2: An unstable macro backdrop
It used to be macro and policy making were sources of stability — and now they are sources of volatility and uncertainty, against the backdrop of persistent inflationary pressure, against the backdrop of rising debt.
So, there is greater recognition that macro is not as supportive as before.
3: The “what” and the “how” of risk taking
So, the “what” — we have talked about a lot in all our regular updates.
But “how” is very interesting. We want to have a more deliberate risk-taking framework in this environment where macro is no longer as reliable a friend as it used to be.
So, if not the macro environment, where else do we deploy our risk budget? Is it more relative value? Idiosyncratic risk taking? Is it more mega forces?
Outro: Here’s our Market take
Here’s our Market take…
What we like at the moment: US equities still a bright spot, and we still think that US [Treasury yields] could rise higher.
More to come in our Midyear Outlook.
Closing frame: Read details: blackrock.com/weekly-commentary
For details, read our weekly market commentary.
Go to www.blackrock.com/weekly-commentary.
Thank you for tuning in. If you’ve enjoyed this episode, subscribe to Market take wherever you get your podcasts.
Eyes on opportunities
At our internal Midyear Forum, our portfolio managers were laser focused on how and where to capture opportunities, even as uncertainty abounds.
Market backdrop
US stocks rose last week on news of fresh US-China trade talks and a solid US jobs report – but it’s too soon to tell if tariffs are hurting the labor market.
Week ahead
We're looking at US CPI to see if tariffs are starting to push inflation up and see persistent inflation pressure limiting how far the Fed can cut rates this year.
BlackRock’s senior portfolio managers came together at our Midyear Forum last week. What was striking was the sharp focus on opportunities even as uncertainty abounds and as policymaking disrupts, rather than stabilizes, markets. They saw a plethora and shared techniques for spotting them. Their takeaways: look through near-term noise; be deliberate about the kinds of risk you’re taking; leverage AI; and watch for biases. More to come in our Midyear Outlook, out on July 1!
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Extra sensitive
Sensitivity of US 10-year Treasury yields to economic uncertainty, 2003-2025
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream, June 2025. Notes: The red line shows the regression coefficient (a numerical measure of the linear relationship) between the US 10-year Treasury yield and economic surprises and trade uncertainty, namely that of Treasury yields to the Citi Economics Surprise Index and the Trade Policy Uncertainty index. The line is only an estimate of this relationship. Green lines are averages over 2003-19 and 2020-25. The actual relationship may differ.
A key takeaway from our end-2024 Forum was that policymaking would become a source of disruption rather than stability. That has played out this year. In the US, inflation is stickier and public debt and fiscal deficits have swelled since the pandemic. With rates structurally higher now, governments and central banks face sharper trade-offs between aiding growth and curbing inflation. This reduced room to maneuver – and the global economic impact of mega forces like geopolitical fragmentation and AI – makes the macro outlook less predictable. As a result, long-term assets like 10-year US Treasuries are more sensitive to incoming data, a stark departure from the pre-pandemic era. See the chart. Today, policy interventions are more likely to amplify than dampen market volatility. Yet at our Midyear Forum, our managers focused on the many opportunities, not the uncertainty.
One way our portfolio managers are finding opportunities in this environment? Looking through the near-term noise and focusing on the big picture. For all the ups and downs in markets since the start of the year, they agreed that the drivers of the best-performing companies’ equity gains have not actually changed much. They exchanged views on specific opportunities they see weathering or benefiting from the volatility. That included a shared conviction in the AI mega force driving further returns, pointing to Nvidia’s recent earnings beat despite tariff-related drags on earnings – but noted medium-term regulatory risk and the potential for slower deployment. They also like energy, again pointing to the AI mega force as one key driver of rising global energy demand that calls for more production of all kinds of energy. They noted how governments’ prioritization of homegrown, reliable power has opened up opportunities in select regions and industries.
Taking risk differently
Another key to finding opportunities? Taking risk differently. Our portfolio managers are refining their frameworks for taking risk, identifying multiple distinct types like macro, mega forces and relative value. One example: they are increasingly looking for pockets of relative value – such as that created by the dispersion we’re seeing in the government bond market. They are finding it across different bond maturities, especially as long-term bond yields are marching steadily upwards across developed markets. They are also finding it across countries as central banks take different approaches to managing the tougher trade-off between growth and inflation. Euro area bonds, for instance, are increasingly less correlated to swings in US Treasuries and stand to benefit from recent rate cuts to support growth in the region.
Our portfolio managers discussed several other techniques for spotting opportunities. They are leveraging AI to discern the signal from the noise, as well as tracking patterns and sentiment shifts in their own discussions. They also discussed the importance of being aware of and managing behavioral biases, recognizing that people are less likely to take risk when uncertainty is higher. Look out for our Midyear Outlook – coming on July 1 – which will discuss these themes in more depth.
Our bottom line
Our portfolio managers are laser focused on opportunities even as policymaking adds to volatility. They’re finding opportunities by looking through near-term noise and taking risk differently. Watch for more in our Midyear Outlook.
Market backdrop
The S&P 500 rose 1.5% last week after news emerged about fresh US-China trade talks and the US May jobs report showed solid job growth. Policy uncertainty is likely slowing company decision-making, so any tariff impact on the labor market may only come later. A mid-week dip in 10-year US Treasury yields was short-lived: they ended the week up slightly at 4.5% and 60 basis points above April lows. Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 1%.
We're monitoring the US CPI report for signs that tariffs are starting to feed through into consumer prices. Inflation has cooled in recent data, but we don't see this as a good guide to the future: we see tariff pressures building in coming months and expect a tight labor market to push up on services inflation. That will likely limit how far the Fed cuts policy rates.
Week ahead
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of June 5, 2025. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in US dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (US, Germany and Italy), Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.
June 9
China CPI
June 11
US CPI
June 13
University of Michigan May sentiment survey
Read our past weekly commentaries here.
Big calls
Our highest conviction views on six- to 12-month (tactical) and over five-year (strategic) horizons, June 2025
| Reasons | ||
|---|---|---|
| Tactical | ||
| US equities | Policy uncertainty and supply disruptions are weighing on near-term growth, raising the risk of a contraction. Yet we think US equities will regain global leadership as the AI theme keeps providing near-term earnings support and could drive productivity in the long term. | |
| Japanese equities | We are overweight. Ongoing shareholder-friendly corporate reforms remain a positive. We prefer unhedged exposures given the yen’s potential strength during bouts of market stress. | |
| Selective in fixed income | Persistent deficits and sticky inflation in the US make us underweight long-term US Treasuries. We also prefer European credit – both investment grade and high yield – over the US on more attractive spreads. | |
| Strategic | ||
| Infrastructure equity and private credit | We see opportunities in infrastructure equity due to attractive relative valuations and mega forces. We think private credit will earn lending share as banks retreat – and at attractive returns. | |
| Fixed income granularity | We prefer short-term inflation-linked bonds over nominal developed market (DM) government bonds, as US tariffs could push up inflation. Within DM government bonds, we favor UK gilts over other regions. | |
| Equity granularity | We favor emerging over developed markets yet get selective in both. Emerging markets (EM) at the cross current of mega forces – like India – offer opportunities. In DM, we like Japan as the return of inflation and corporate reforms brighten the outlook. | |
Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective, June 2025. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security.
Tactical granular views
Six- to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, June 2025
We have lengthened our tactical investment horizon back to six to 12 months. The table below reflects this and, importantly, leaves aside the opportunity for alpha, or the potential to generate above-benchmark returns – especially at a time of heightened volatility.
| Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ||||||
| United States |  |
We are overweight. Policy-driven volatility and supply-side constraints are pressuring growth, but we see AI supporting corporate earnings in the near term and driving productivity over the long run. | ||||
| Europe |  |
We are neutral, preferring the US and Japan. We see structural growth concerns and uncertainty over the impacts of rising defense spending, fiscal loosening and de-escalation in Ukraine. Yet room for more European Central Bank rate cuts can support an earnings recovery. | ||||
| UK | |
We are neutral. Political stability could improve investor sentiment. Yet an increase in the corporate tax burden could hurt profit margins near term. | ||||
| Japan | |
We are overweight given the return of inflation and shareholder-friendly corporate reforms. We prefer unhedged exposure as the yen has tended to strengthen during bouts of market stress. | ||||
| Emerging markets | |
We are neutral. US tariffs and trade tensions are likely to drag on growth in China and emerging markets more broadly, even with potential policy support. | ||||
| China | |
We are neutral. The uncertainty of trade barriers makes us more cautious, with potential policy stimulus only partly offsetting the drag. We still see structural challenges to China’s growth. | ||||
| Fixed income | ||||||
| Short US Treasuries | |
We are overweight. We view short-term Treasuries as akin to cash in our tactical views – but we would still lean against the market pricing of multiple Fed rate cuts this year. | ||||
| Long US Treasuries |  |
We are underweight. Persistent budget deficits and geopolitical fragmentation could drive term premium up over the near term. We prefer intermediate maturities less vulnerable to investors demanding more term premium. | ||||
| Global inflation-linked bonds | |
We are neutral. We see higher medium-term inflation, but cooling inflation and growth may matter more near term. | ||||
| Euro area government bonds |  |
We are underweight. Growth and inflation risks are balanced. Trade uncertainty may hurt growth more than it boosts inflation, allowing the ECB to cut rates more. Greater defense and infrastructure spending will support growth in the medium term but might boost term premia. | ||||
| UK Gilts | |
We are neutral. Gilt yields are off their highs, but the risk of higher US yields having a knock-on impact and reducing the UK’s fiscal space has risen. We are monitoring the UK fiscal situation. | ||||
| Japan government bonds | |
We are underweight. Yields have surged, yet stock returns still look more attractive to us. | ||||
| China government bonds | |
We are neutral. Bonds are supported by looser policy. Yet we find yields more attractive in short-term DM paper. | ||||
| US agency MBS | |
We are neutral. We see agency MBS as a high-quality exposure in a diversified bond allocation and prefer it to IG. | ||||
| Short-term IG credit | |
We are overweight. Short-term bonds better compensate for interest rate risk. | ||||
| Long-term IG credit | |
We are underweight. Spreads are tight, so we prefer taking risk in equities from a whole portfolio perspective. We prefer Europe over the US. | ||||
| Global high yield | |
We are neutral. Spreads are tight, but the total income makes it more attractive than IG. We prefer Europe. | ||||
| Asia credit | |
We are neutral. We don’t find valuations compelling enough to turn more positive. | ||||
| Emerging market - hard currency | |
We are neutral. The asset class has performed well due to its quality, attractive yields and EM central bank rate cuts. We think those rate cuts may soon be paused. | ||||
| Emerging market - local currency | |
We are underweight. We see emerging market currencies as especially sensitive to trade uncertainty and global risk sentiment. | ||||
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.
Euro-denominated tactical granular views
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, June 2025
| Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ||||
| Europe ex UK | |
We are neutral, preferring the US and Japan. We see structural growth concerns and uncertainty over the impacts of rising defense spending, fiscal loosening and de-escalation in Ukraine. Yet room for more European Central Bank rate cuts can support an earnings recovery. | ||
| Germany | |
We are neutral. Valuations and earnings growth are supportive relative to peers, especially as ECB rate cuts ease financing conditions. Prolonged uncertainty about potential tariffs and fading euphoria over China’s stimulus could dent sentiment. | ||
| France | |
We are neutral. Ongoing political uncertainty could weigh on business conditions for French companies. Yet only a small share of the revenues and operations of major French firms is tied to domestic activity. | ||
| Italy | |
We are neutral. Valuations are supportive relative to peers. Yet past growth and earnings outperformance largely stemmed from significant fiscal stimulus in 2022-2023, which is unlikely to be sustained in the coming years. | ||
| Spain | |
We are overweight. Valuations and earnings growth are supportive compared to other euro area stocks. Financials, utilities and infrastructure stocks stand to gain from a strong economic backdrop and advancements in AI. | ||
| Netherlands | |
We are neutral. The Dutch stock market’s tilt to technology and semiconductors — key beneficiaries of rising AI demand—is offset by less favorable valuations and a weaker earnings outlook compared to European peers. | ||
| Switzerland |  |
We are neutral, consistent with our broader European view. Earnings have improved, but valuations remain elevated compared to other European markets. The index’s defensive tilt may offer less support if global risk appetite stays strong. | ||
| UK | |
We are neutral. Political stability could improve investor sentiment. Yet an increase in the corporate tax burden could hurt profit margins near term. | ||
| Fixed income | ||||
| Euro area government bonds | |
We are underweight. Growth and inflation risks are balanced. Trade uncertainty may hurt growth more than it boosts inflation, allowing the ECB to cut rates more. Greater defense and infrastructure spending will support growth in the medium term but might boost term premia. Issuance is likely concentrated in core countries that have more fiscal leeway and is likely in line with increasing issuance from the European Commission. | ||
| German bunds | |
We are underweight. Market pricing aligns with our policy rate expectations, but growth support fiscal stimulus is likely to push up neutral rates. More balanced inflation risks and bond issuance could push term premium up. | ||
| French OATs |  |
We are underweight. France continues to face challenges from elevated political uncertainty, persistent budget deficits and a slower pace of structural reforms. | ||
| Italian BTPs | |
We are neutral. The spread over German bunds looks tight given its large budget deficits and growing public debt. Domestic factors remain supportive, with growth holding up relative to the rest of the euro area and Italian households showing solid demand to hold BTPs at higher yields. Given the domestic political pushback, we do not think Italy will boost defense spending to such an extent that fiscal stability concerns resurface. | ||
| UK gilts | |
We are neutral. Gilt yields are off their highs, but the risk of higher US yields having a knock-on impact and reducing the UK’s fiscal space has risen. We are monitoring the UK fiscal situation. | ||
| Swiss government bonds | |
We are neutral. Markets are expecting policy rates to return to negative territory, which we deem as unlikely. | ||
| European inflation-linked bonds | |
We are neutral. We see higher medium-term inflation, but inflation expectations are firmly anchored. Cooling inflation and uncertain growth may matter more near term. | ||
| European investment grade credit | |
We are neutral on European investment grade credit, favoring short- to medium-term paper for quality income. We prefer European investment grade over the US, as quality-adjusted spreads are relatively wider. | ||
| European high yield | |
We are overweight. The income potential is attractive, and we prefer European high yield for its more appealing valuations, higher quality and less sensitivity to interest rate swings compared with the US Spreads adequately compensate for the risk of a potential rise in defaults, in our view. | ||
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a euro perspective, June 2025. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.
Meet the authors
Jean Boivin
Head – BlackRock Investment Institute
Wei Li
Global Chief Investment Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
Glenn Purves
Global Head of Macro – BlackRock Investment Institute
Vivek Paul
Global Head of Portfolio Research – BlackRock Investment Institute
This material is for distribution to Professional Clients (as defined by the FCA Rules) and should not be relied upon by any other persons.
Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL. Tel: 020 7743 3000. Registered in England No. 2020394. For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded. BlackRock is a trading name of BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited.
Sources: Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.
Any research in this document has been procured and may have been acted on by BlackRock for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available only incidentally. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. They do not necessarily reflect the views of any company in the BlackRock Group or any part thereof and no assurances are made as to their accuracy.
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