Skip to content
Welcome to the BlackRock site for intermediaries
Before you proceed, please take a moment to review and accept the following Terms and Conditions.
By accessing this website, you, as a client or potential client, accept to receive information on this website in more than one language. Should you require help understanding the content on this website, please reach out to your financial or other professional advisor.
Financial Intermediaries
On this website, Financial Intermediaries are investors that qualify as both a Professional Client and a Qualified Investor.
In summary, a person who can both be classified as a professional client under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (2014/65/EU, “MiFID”) and a qualified investor in accordance with the Prospectus Regulation (EU) 2017/1129) will generally need to meet one or more of the following requirements:
(1) An entity required to be authorised or regulated to operate in the financial markets. The following list includes all authorised entities carrying out the characteristic activities of the entities mentioned, whether authorised by an EEA State or a third country and whether or not authorised by reference to a directive:
(a) a credit institution;
(b) an investment firm;
(c) any other authorised or regulated financial institution;
(d) an insurance company;
(e) a collective investment scheme or the management company of such a scheme;
(f) a pension fund or the management company of a pension fund;
(g) a commodity or commodity derivatives dealer;
(h) a local;
(i) any other institutional investor;
(2) a large undertaking that meets two of the following tests: (i) a balance sheet total of EUR 20,000,000; (ii) an annual net turnover of EUR 40,000,000; (iii) own funds of EUR 2,000,000;
(3) a national or regional government, a public body that manages public debt, a central bank, an international or supranational institution (such as the World Bank, the IMF, the ECB, the EIB) or another similar international organization;
(4) a institutional investor whose main activity is to invest in financial instruments, including an entity dedicated to the securitisation of assets or other financing transactions;
(5) a natural person resident in an EEA State that permits the authorisation of natural persons as professional clients and qualified investors, who expressly asks to be treated as a professional client and a qualified investor and who meets at least two of the following criteria: (i) he/she has carried out transactions, in significant size, on securities markets at an average frequency of, at least, 10 per quarter over the previous four quarters before the application, (ii) the size of his/her financial instrument portfolio, defined as including cash deposits and financial instruments exceeds EUR 500,000, (iii) he/she works or has worked for at least one year in the financial sector in a professional position which requires knowledge of securities investment.
Please note that the above summary is provided for information purposes only. If you are uncertain as to whether you can both be classified as a professional client under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive and classed as a qualified investor under the Prospectus Regulation then you should seek independent advice.
Terms and conditions
Please read this page before proceeding, as it explains certain restrictions imposed by law on the distribution of this information and the countries in which our funds are authorised for sale. It is your responsibility to be aware of and to observe all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction.
Please note that you are required to read and accept the terms of our Privacy Policy before you are able to access our websites.
Once you have confirmed that you agree to the legal information in this document, and the Privacy Policy – by indicating your consent above – we will place a cookie on your computer to recognise you and prevent this page reappearing should you access this site, or other BlackRock sites, on future occasions. The cookie will expire after six months, or sooner should there be a material change to this important information.
By confirming that you have read this important information, you also:
(i) Agree that such information will apply to any subsequent access to the Individual investors (or Institutions / Intermediaries) section of this website by you, and that all such subsequent access will be subject to the disclaimers, risk warnings and other information set out herein; and
(ii) Warrant that no other person will access the Individual investors section of this website from the same computer and logon as you are currently using.
The offshore funds described in the following pages are administered and managed by companies within the BlackRock Group and can be marketed in certain jurisdictions only. It is your responsibility to be aware of the applicable laws and regulations of your country of residence. Further information is available in the Prospectus or other constitutional document for each fund.
This does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell shares in any of the funds referred to on this site, by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or distribution would be unlawful or in which the person making such offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so or to anyone to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation.
Specifically, the funds described are not available for distribution to or investment by US investors. The units/shares will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act") and, except in a transaction which does not violate the Securities Act or any other applicable US securities laws (including without limitation any applicable law of any of the States of the USA) may not be directly or indirectly offered or sold in the USA or any of its territories or possessions or areas subject to its jurisdiction or to or for the benefit of a US Person.
The funds described have not been, nor will they be, qualified for distribution to the public in Canada as no prospectus for these funds has been filed with any securities commission or regulatory authority in Canada or any province or territory thereof. This website is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed, as an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in Canada. No person resident in Canada for the purposes of the Income Tax Act (Canada) may purchase or accept a transfer of shares in the funds described unless he or she is eligible to do so under applicable Canadian or provincial laws.
Applications to invest in any fund referred to on this site, must only be made on the basis of the offer document relating to the specific investment (e.g. prospectus, simplified prospectus, key investor information document or other applicable terms and conditions).
As a result of money laundering regulations, additional documentation for identification purposes may be required when you make your investment. Details are contained in the relevant Prospectus or other constitutional document.
If you are unsure about the meaning of any information provided please consult your financial or other professional adviser.
The information contained on this site is subject to copyright with all rights reserved. It must not be reproduced, copied or redistributed in whole or in part.
The information contained on this site is published in good faith but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by BlackRock (Netherlands) B.V. (“BNBV”) or by any person as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied on as such. BNBV shall have no liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use or reliance on the information provided including without limitation, any loss of profit or any other damage, direct or consequential. No information on this site constitutes investment, tax, legal or any other advice.
Where a claim is brought against BlackRock by a third party in relation to your use of this website, you hereby agree to fully reimburse BlackRock for all losses, costs, actions, proceedings, claims, damages, expenses (including reasonable legal costs and expenses), or liabilities, whatsoever suffered or incurred directly by BlackRock as a consequence of improper use of this website. Neither party should be liable to the other for any loss or damage which may be suffered by the other party due to any cause beyond the first party's reasonable control including without limitation any power failure.
You acknowledge and agree that it is your responsibility to keep secure and confidential any passwords that we issue to you and your authorised employees and not to let such password(s) become public knowledge. If any password(s) become known by someone other than you and your authorised employees, you must change those particular password(s) immediately using the function available for this purpose on the Website.
You may leave the BNBV website when you access certain links on this website. In so doing, you may be proceeding to the site of an organisation that is not regulated. BNBV has not examined any of these websites and does not assume any responsibility for the contents of such websites nor the services, products or items offered through such websites.
BNBV shall have no liability for any data transmission errors such as data loss or damage or alteration of any kind, including, but not limited to, any direct, indirect or consequential damage, arising out of the use of the services provided herein.
Risk Warnings
Capital at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and are not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy.
Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.
BlackRock has not considered the suitability of this investment against your individual needs and risk tolerance. The data displayed provides summary information. Investment should be made on the basis of the relevant Prospectus which is available from the manager.
For your protection, telephone calls and/or other electronic communications which result in, or are intended to result in, transactions will be recorded or saved.
Investors should read the offering documents for further details including the risk factors before making an investment.
For investors in Sweden:
The prospectus and KIID are available at BNBV, Stockholm branch, Malmskillnadsgatan 38, 111 51 Stockholm, Sweden. Investors should read the KIID before making an investment decision.
Please note that while some of the BlackRock funds are "ring-fenced", others form part of a single company and are not. For BlackRock funds that do not have segregated liability status, in the event of a single BlackRock fund being unable to meet liabilities attributable to that BlackRock fund out of the assets attributable to it, the excess may be met out of the assets attributable to the other BlackRock funds within the same company. We refer you to the prospectus or other relevant terms and conditions of each BlackRock fund for further information in this regard.
The views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of BlackRock as a whole or any part thereof, nor do they constitute investment or any other advice.
Any research found on these pages has been procured and may have been acted on by BlackRock for its own purposes.
This site is operated and issued by BlackRock BNBV which is authorised and regulated by the Autoriteit Financiële Markten («AFM»). You can gain access to the AFM website from the following link: www.afm.nl. BlackRock (Netherlands) B.V. is a company registered in the Netherlands, No. 17068311. Registered Office: Amstelplein 1, 1096 HA, Amsterdam. BlackRock is a trading name of BlackRock (Netherlands) B.V. VAT No 007883250. General enquiries about this website should be sent to EMEAwebmaster@blackrock.com. This email address should not be used for any enquiries relating to investments.
© 2021 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights reserved. BLACKROCK, BLACKROCK SOLUTIONS, iSHARES, BUILD ON BLACKROCK and SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.
MKTGH1120E/S-1423192
Getting granular in our strategic views
Market take
Weekly video_20231127
Vivek Paul
Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take
Camera frame
Elevated levels of bond volatility are evidence of the new macro and market regime in action, and confirm the benefits of being agile with our strategic views of five years or longer.
Title slide: Staying agile with our strategic views
We upgrade sovereign bonds in developed markets (DMs) to neutral but this masks two stories - we stay underweight long-term bonds but turn overweight short- and mid-dated bonds. We also trim our preference for inflation-linked bonds, though this remains our largest overweight, and cut DM stocks to neutral.
Here’s why:
1: Yields to rise further
Our 3 1/2 year underweight to all DM government bonds is over, as market yields have risen in line with our positioning. At an aggregate level we have turned neutral, but this is driven by a preference for short- and mid-maturity bonds – and what’s more noteworthy is what we didn’t shift. We remain underweight long-term bonds.
Why?
We think long-term yields will resume their climb as investors demand more term premium - compensation, for the risk of holding long-term bonds.
2: Higher inflation for longer
We believe higher inflation, plus greater fiscal-and climate-related spending likely mean the level of policy rates will be materially higher than before the pandemic.
Our updated view of higher neutral rates in the long term prompts a reassessment of equity valuations. Our strategic overweight to DM stocks – which we’ve held since the before end of Western lockdowns - is now trimmed to neutral. Long-term stock valuations look about fair to us, rather than warranting a higher allocation than usual. Though even with the downgrade to neutral, U.S. stocks remains our largest portfolio allocation.
Outro: Here’s our Market take
We think the new volatile economic regime calls for more nimble and dynamic strategic views.
Closing frame: Read details:
www.blackrock.com/weekly-commentary.
Quarterly strategic update
We turn more positive on short- to medium-term developed market (DM) sovereign bonds in our latest strategic update. We trim DM stocks to neutral.
Market backdrop
Ten-year US Treasury yields steadied after their drop from 16-year highs. We think yields will stay volatile but ultimately resume their climb in the long term.
Week ahead
US PCE inflation data out this week should gauge if price pressures are cooling further. We don’t see inflation coming down to the Fed’s 2% target long term.
We think granularity is key as government bond yields hit multi-year highs. We turn more positive on short- and medium-term DM bonds as we factor in high interest rates for longer in our strategic views of five years and over. We stay underweight long-term bonds, leaving us neutral DM bonds overall in our latest quarterly update. We like inflation-linked bonds and cut DM stocks to neutral on valuations. We remain underweight credit, preferring income in private markets.
Paragraph-2,Image-1,Paragraph-3
Key Points-1,Paragraph-4,Advance Static Table-1,Paragraph-5,Advance Static Table-2,Paragraph-6,Advance Static Table-3
Riskier long-term bonds
DM government bond term premium, 1985-2023
Forward-looking estimates may not come to pass. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, November 2023. Notes: The chart shows the historical and estimated term premium ranges. The range captures three regions: US, Germany and UK. Term premium is defined as the compensation investors demand for the risk of holding long-term bonds. Our historical estimates of term premium are based on the Adrian, Crump and Moench (2013) “ACM” model, described in detail here: Our estimated range represents a five-year view, from 2023 through 2028.
We had been underweight DM government bonds since March 2020 as we expected yields to rise. We gradually trimmed the underweight as our view played out, increasingly preferring shorter-dated bonds. Now with yields even higher, we explicitly carve out an overweight on DM short- and medium-term government bonds. We stay underweight long-term bonds as we see room for long-term yields to climb again. Why? Investors will demand more term premium, or compensation for the risk of holding these bonds across DMs, in our view. See the chart. This is due to more uncertain and volatile inflation spurring heightened bond market volatility. We also see weaker demand for bonds amid rising debt levels. Central banks are no longer reinvesting the proceeds of maturing bonds as part of quantitative tightening, and investors are struggling to digest a flood of new bonds.
The path to higher long-term yields is unlikely to be straight in the next five years. Indeed, we recently went neutral long-term Treasuries from a tactical, six-to-12-month view because we see more even odds of yields swinging in either direction. Inflation-linked bonds remain our highest-conviction overweight on the strategic horizon. Sure, inflation is falling in the near term as pandemic-era mismatches unwind, with consumer spending shifting back to services from goods. But in the long run, we see inflation well above 2% central bank policy targets. The reasons are big structural shifts constraining supply: slowing labor force growth, geopolitical fragmentation and the low-carbon transition. That’s why we see central banks keeping interest rates high for longer. Our updated strategic views bake in the impact of this.
Staying nimble and selective
We also turn neutral DM equities, with US stocks remaining our largest portfolio allocation. We had been overweight since the end of Western pandemic lockdowns due to attractive valuations. Bond and stock markets have been moving toward our view of high-for-longer rates in fits and starts, and long-term valuations for stocks now look about fair to us. This is why we have turned neutral on the broad asset class – and look for opportunities within. The new regime has created uncertainty, resulting in greater dispersion of sector and individual security returns. How to capture these potential opportunities to generate above-benchmark returns? Nimble portfolios, getting granular and investment skill are part of the answer, we think.
These changes demonstrate why we think it’s important to be agile with strategic views. This new, more volatile regime means the relative attraction of different assets is shifting faster than we have been used to for a generation. Credit is a case in point. Just a year ago, we were overweight investment grade credit because spreads looked attractive versus our long-run expectations. Then spreads tightened materially, and we turned underweight as we expect them to widen in the long run. High-for-longer rates will likely eat into corporate margins and earnings, in our view, especially as companies refinance debt. We see private credit lenders benefitting from refinancing activity as banks curb lending due to high rates reshaping the financial industry. That said, private markets are complex and not suitable for all investors. And private credit is not immune to the tough economic backdrop, but we think current yields compensate investors for the risks.
Our bottom line
High rates are a core tenet of the new regime. We carve out a strategic overweight on shorter-term DM bonds and stick to our preference for inflation-linked bonds. We go neutral DM stocks but see granular opportunities.
Market backdrop
The S&P 500 hit a four-month high, taking its gains to about 11% from the October lows on a holiday-shortened trading week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 hit its highest level since January 2022. Ten-year US Treasury yields inched up back toward 4.5% but are still down about 50 basis points from their October peak. We think yields will stay volatile but resume their march as investors start to demand more term premium – a key part of our view on both tactical and strategic horizons.
We are monitoring US PCE inflation data – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – due this week to gauge if inflation is on track to fall to 2%. We think US inflation will near the Fed’s 2% policy target in the second half of 2024 but will not stay there long term. We think euro area inflation will also head back to target next year as economic activity stagnates.
Read our past weekly commentaries here.
Week ahead
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of Nov. 23, 2023. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point in the last 12-months, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in US dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (US, Germany and Italy), Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.
Nov. 29
Germany CPI
Nov. 30
US PCE; euro area flash CPI and unemployment
Dec. 1
US ISM manufacturing PMI
Investment themes
01
Holding tight
Markets have come around to the view that central banks will not quickly ease policy in a world shaped by supply constraints. We see them keeping policy tight to lean against inflationary pressures.
02
Pivoting to new opportunities
Higher macro and market volatility has brought more divergent security performance relative to the broader market. Benefiting from this requires granularity and nimbleness.
03
Harnessing mega forces
The new regime is shaped by five structural forces we think are poised to create big shifts in profitability across economies and sectors. The key is identifying catalysts that can supercharge them and whether the shifts are priced by markets today.
Directional views
Strategic (long-term) and tactical (6-12 month) views on broad asset classes, November 2023.
| Asset | Strategic view | Tactical view | Commentary | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | Developed market |  |
 |
We are neutral equities in our strategic views as high-for-longer interest rates lead us to re-evaluate our estimate for stock valuations from here. Tactically, we stay underweight DM stocks but upgrade Japan. We are underweight the US and Europe. Corporate earnings expectations don’t fully reflect the economic stagnation we see. We see other opportunities in equities. |
| Emerging market |  |
|
Strategically, we are neutral as we don’t see significant earnings growth or higher compensation for risk. We go neutral tactically given a weaker growth trajectory. We prefer EM debt over equity. | |
| Developed market government bonds | Nominal |  |
|
Higher-for-longer policy rates have bolstered the case for short-dated government debt in portfolios on both tactical and strategic horizons. Strategically, we carve out an overweight for short- and medium-term bonds as yields have surged. We stay underweight US and euro area long-dated bonds as we expect investors to demand more compensation for the risk of holding them. We are strategically neutral on government bonds overall. Tactically, we’re neutral long-term Treasuries as the yield surge driven by expected policy rates approaches a peak. We’re overweight euro area and UK bonds as we see more rate cuts than the market does. |
| Inflation-linked |  |
|
We are strategically overweight DM inflation-linked bonds where we see higher inflation persisting. But we have trimmed our tactical view to neutral on current market pricing in the euro area. | |
| Public credit and emerging market debt | Investment grade | |
 |
Strategically, we’re underweight due to limited compensation above short-dated government bonds. We’re underweight tactically to fund risk-taking elsewhere as spreads remain tight. |
| High yield | |
|
Strategically, we are neutral high yield as we see the asset class as more vulnerable to recession risks. We’re tactically underweight. Spreads don’t fully compensate for slower growth and tighter credit conditions we expect. | |
| EM debt | |
 |
Strategically, we're neutral and see more attractive income opportunities elsewhere. Tactically, we’re overweight hard currency EM debt due to higher yields. It is also cushioned from weakening local currencies as EM central banks cut policy rates. | |
| Private markets | Income | |
- | We are strategically overweight private markets income. For investors with a long-term view, we see opportunities in private credit as private lenders help fill a void left by a bank pullback. |
| Growth | |
- | Even in our underweight to growth private markets, we see areas like infrastructure equity as a relative bright spot. |
Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security.
Our granular views indicate how we think individual assets will perform against broad asset classes. We indicate different levels of conviction.
Tactical granular views
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, November 2023.
| Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ||||
| United States | |
We are underweight the broad market – still our largest portfolio allocation. We don’t think earnings expectations reflect the macro damage we expect. We recognize momentum is strong near-term. | ||
| Europe | |
We are underweight. We see the European Central Bank holding policy tight in a slowdown and the support to growth from lower energy prices is fading. | ||
| UK |  |
We are neutral. We find that attractive valuations better reflect the weak growth outlook and the Bank of England’s sharp rate hikes to deal with sticky inflation. | ||
| Japan | |
We are overweight. We think stronger growth can help earnings top expectations. Stock buybacks and other shareholder-friendly actions may keep attracting foreign investors. | ||
| Pacific ex-Japan | |
We are neutral. China’s restart is losing steam and we don’t see valuations compelling enough to turn overweight. | ||
| DM AI mega force | |
We are overweight. We see a multi-country and multi-sector AI-centered investment cycle unfolding set to support revenues and margins. | ||
| Emerging markets | |
We are neutral. We see growth on a weaker trajectory and see only limited policy stimulus from China. We prefer EM debt over equity. | ||
| China | |
We are neutral. Growth has slowed. Policy stimulus is not as large as in the past. Yet it should stabilise activity, and valuations have come down. Structural challenges imply deteriorating long-term growth. Geopolitical risks persist. | ||
| Fixed income | ||||
| Short US Treasuries | |
We are overweight. We prefer short-term government bonds for income as interest rates stay higher for longer. | ||
| Long US Treasuries | |
We are neutral. The yield surge driven by expected policy rates is approaching a peak. We now see about equal odds that long-term yields swing in either direction. | ||
| US inflation-linked bonds | |
We are overweight and prefer the US over the euro area. We see market pricing underestimating sticky inflation. | ||
| Euro area inflation-linked bonds | |
We prefer the US over the euro area. We see markets overestimating how persistent inflation in the euro area will be relative to the US | ||
| Euro area government bonds | |
We are overweight. Market pricing reflects policy rates staying higher for longer even as growth deteriorates. Widening peripheral bond spreads remain a risk. | ||
| UK Gilts | |
We are overweight. Gilt yields are holding near their highest in 15 years. Markets are pricing in restrictive Bank of England policy rates for longer than we expect. | ||
| Japan government bonds | |
We are underweight. We see upside risks to yields from the Bank of Japan winding down its ultra-loose policy. | ||
| China government bonds | |
We are neutral. Bonds are supported by looser policy. Yet we find yields more attractive in short-term DM paper. | ||
| Global investment grade credit | |
We are underweight. We take advantage of tight credit spreads to fund increased risk-taking elsewhere in the portfolio. We look to up the allocation if growth deteriorates. | ||
| US agency MBS | |
We’re overweight. We see agency MBS as a high-quality exposure within diversified bond allocations. | ||
| Global high yield | |
We are underweight. Spreads do not fully compensate for slower growth and tighter credit conditions we anticipate. | ||
| Asia credit | |
We are neutral. We don’t find valuations compelling enough to turn more positive. | ||
| Emerging market - hard currency | |
We prefer emerging hard currency on due to higher yields. It is also cushioned from weakening local currencies as EM central banks start to cut policy rates. | ||
| Emerging market - local currency | |
We are neutral. Yields have fallen closer to US Treasury yields. Plus, central bank rate cuts could put downward pressure on EM currencies, dragging on potential returns. | ||
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.
Euro-denominated tactical granular views
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, November 2023.
| Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ||||
| Europe ex UK | |
We are underweight. We see the European Central Bank holding policy tight in a slowdown and the support to growth from lower energy prices is fading. | ||
| Germany | |
We are underweight. Valuations are moderately supportive relative to peers, but we see earnings under pressure from higher interest rates, slower global growth and medium-term uncertainty on energy supply. Longer term, we think the low-carbon transition may bring opportunities. | ||
| France | |
We are underweight. Relatively richer valuations and a potential drag to earnings from weaker consumption amid higher interest rates offset the positive impact from past productivity enhancing reforms and favorable energy mix. | ||
| Italy | |
We are underweight. The economy’s relatively weak credit fundamentals amid global tightening financial conditions keep us cautious even though valuations and earnings revision trends look attractive versus peers. | ||
| Spain | |
We are underweight. Valuations and earnings momentum are supportive relative to peers, but the uncertain outcome of Spanish elections is a temporary headwind. | ||
| Netherlands | |
We are underweight. The Dutch stock markets' tilt to technology and semiconductors, a key beneficiary of higher demand for AI, is offset by relatively less favorable valuations and earnings momentum than European peers. | ||
| Switzerland | |
We are overweight. We hold a relative preference. The index’s high weights to defensive sectors like health care and non-discretionary consumer goods provide a cushion amid heightened global macro uncertainty. Valuations remain high versus peers and a strong currency is a drag on export competitiveness. | ||
| UK | |
We are neutral. We find that attractive valuations better reflect the weak growth outlook and the Bank of England’s sharp rate hikes to deal with sticky inflation. | ||
| Fixed income | ||||
| Euro area government bonds | |
We are overweight. Market pricing reflects policy rates staying higher for longer even as growth deteriorates. Widening peripheral bond spreads remain a risk. | ||
| German bunds | |
We are overweight. Market pricing reflects policy rates staying high for longer even as growth deteriorates. We hold a preference over Italian BTPs. | ||
| French OATs | |
We are overweight. Valuations look moderately compelling compared to peripheral bonds, with French spreads to German bonds hovering above historical averages. Elevated French public debt and a slower pace of structural reforms remain headwinds. | ||
| Italian BTPs | |
We are neutral. The spread over German Bunds looks tight amid deteriorating macro and restrictive ECB policy. Yet domestic factors remain supportive, namely a more balanced current account and prudent fiscal stance. We see income helping to compensate for the slightly wider spreads we expect. | ||
| UK gilts | |
We are overweight. Gilt yields are holding near their highest in 15 years. Markets are pricing in restrictive Bank of England policy rates for longer than we expect. | ||
| Swiss government bonds | |
We are neutral. We don’t see the SNB hiking rates as much as the ECB given relatively subdued inflation and a strong currency. Further upward pressure on yields appears limited given global macro uncertainty. | ||
| European inflation-linked bonds | |
We prefer the US over the euro area. We see markets overestimating how persistent inflation in the euro area will be relative to the US | ||
| European investment grade credit | |
We are neutral European investment-grade credit. Spreads have tightened vs. government bonds, and we now see less room for outperformance given weaker growth prospects amid restrictive monetary policy. We continue to prefer European investment grade over the US given more attractive valuations amid decent income. | ||
| European high yield | |
We are neutral. We find the income potential attractive yet prefer up-in-quality credit exposures amid a worsening macro backdrop. | ||
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a euro perspective, June 2023. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.
Meet the authors
Jean Boivin
Head – BlackRock Investment Institute
Wei Li
Global Chief Investment Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
Vivek Paul
Global Head of Portfolio Research – BlackRock Investment Institute
Devan Nathwani
Portfolio Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
This material is for distribution to Professional Clients (as defined by the FCA Rules) and should not be relied upon by any other persons.
Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL. Tel: 020 7743 3000. Registered in England No. 2020394. For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded. BlackRock is a trading name of BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited.
Sources: Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.
Any research in this document has been procured and may have been acted on by BlackRock for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available only incidentally. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. They do not necessarily reflect the views of any company in the BlackRock Group or any part thereof and no assurances are made as to their accuracy.
The opinions expressed in this paper may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this paper are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents.
This paper may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this paper is at the sole discretion of the reader.
This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest in any BlackRock funds and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer.
© 2023 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights reserved. BLACKROCK, BLACKROCK SOLUTIONS, iSHARES, BUILD ON BLACKROCK and SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY logo are registered and unregistered trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.
Explore more
About us
Products
Themes
Insights
ETFs & Indexing
© 2023 BlackRock, Inc. All rights reserved.
BIIM1123U/M-3250281