MARKET INSIGHTS

Weekly market commentary

25-Nov-2024
  • BlackRock Investment Institute

Uneven earnings call for granularity

Market take

Weekly video_20241202

Carolina Martinez Arevalo

Portfolio Strategist, BlackRock Investment Institute

Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take

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Corporate earnings growth has been out of sync outside of the US We believe this divergence means that getting granular with investment views is key.

Title slide: Uneven earnings call for granularity

1: The AI advantage

The US posted 9% earnings growth in the last 12 months compared with just 1% for the rest of the world, according to LSEG Datastream. US stocks have soared on the artificial intelligence theme and resilient economic growth.

Even if forecasts are downgraded over the course of next year, as they tend to be, we expect a brighter earnings outlook globally than in 2024.

The magnificent seven are still expected to drive US earnings due to AI. Yet their lead should narrow as earnings growth broadens to a wider set of beneficiaries.

2: Japan a bright spot

Japan’s broad earnings growth has even outpaced the US over the past year. A sunnier macro picture due to inflation’s return and shareholder-friendly corporate reforms are reasons for optimism.

We think Japan’s solid domestic outlook can keep driving earnings growth even as the yen’s rise from its recent lows can weigh on earnings.

3: Europe still struggling

In Europe, earnings for around half of sectors are still in decline. Yet we favor sectors like financials as banks have outperformed due to higher interest rates, and utilities as one of the few non-US beneficiaries of AI.

Outro: Here’s our Market take

We stay overweight US and Japanese equities as we expect their solid earnings growth to hold up.

In regions with a more challenging outlook, getting granular is key. We see opportunities in sectors such as European financials.

Keying on earnings

We see earnings growth mattering more for equity returns next year over higher valuations. We eye regional earnings themes outside the US and stay selective.

Market backdrop

US stocks hit all-time highs last week, while US bond yields hit one-month lows. European stocks fell on concerns about the fragile French government.

Week ahead

This week, we get US payrolls for November. The recent subdued pace of job gains suggests elevated immigration may be starting to moderate, in our view.

Expectations for solid corporate earnings drove our US and Japanese equity overweights this year. They have delivered, showing that fundamentals are key. Earnings strength could matter more to equity investors in 2025 over valuations. By contrast, European earnings growth remains soft due to stagnant economic activity. We get granular to find opportunities – like in European financials. We see US earnings strength broadening, largely on the artificial intelligence (AI) theme.

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US leads the way

12-month trailing and forward earnings expectations for US versus rest of world

The chart shows US corporate earnings growth outpacing the rest of the world, driven by the magnificent seven. Consensus estimates show the U.S. leading by a smaller margin in 2025.

Forward looking estimates may not come to pass. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream, November 2024. Notes: The chart shows 12-month trailing earnings and consensus 12-month forward earnings expectations for the US, both including and excluding “magnificent seven” stocks, and the rest of the world ex-US. The magnificent seven includes Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta Platforms and Tesla.

Coming into 2024, we favored US and Japanese equities because we expected them to deliver the strongest earnings growth. Both delivered. The US has posted 9% earnings growth in the last 12 months compared with just 1% for the rest of the world, LSEG Datastream data shows. See the chart. US stocks have soared on the AI theme and resilient economic growth. The earnings of “magnificent seven” mostly tech companies have surged 45% in the past year. Japanese companies have achieved 14% earnings growth in yen terms on shareholder-friendly corporate reforms plus the return of mild inflation helping drive corporate pricing power. Consensus expectations are for the US to keep leading on earnings even as they are seen improving globally. We think this varied performance shows why this is not a typical business cycle – and why themes like AI and granular views matter more.

Can earnings meet high consensus expectations in 2025? Even if forecasts come down over the course of the year as they tend to, we expect broad-based earnings growth as regions outside the US improve from a low base – but stick with our preferences. In the US, the magnificent seven are still expected to drive earnings on the AI mega force – a big, structural shift. Yet their lead should narrow as easing inflation, resilient consumer spending and the prospect of looser regulation fuels sectors beyond tech. As the AI buildout progresses, it creates investment opportunities – and earnings growth potential – in the utilities, industrials, energy and real estate companies providing key AI inputs. We stay overweight US equities as we think risk-on sentiment can persist thanks to the prospect of corporate tax cuts and deregulation.

Japan's positive outlook

Japan is another bright spot – and its broad earnings growth has even outpaced the US over the past year. A sunnier macro picture due to inflation’s return and shareholder-friendly corporate reforms are reasons for optimism. November’s pickup in core inflation is less of a concern given Japan is still only seeing a return of mild inflation. We think a solid domestic outlook can keep driving earnings even as the yen’s pickup from recent lows can be a drag. Japan’s domestic resurgence could also mitigate the hit from threats like rising US protectionism, in our view. We stay overweight Japanese equities as a result.

In regions with a more challenging outlook, getting granular is key. Europe is still struggling, with Q3 marking just its second straight quarter of earnings growth. Earnings for around half of European sectors are still in decline, LSEG Datastream data shows. Yet we eye selective opportunities like financials, the top performing sector due to higher interest rates. We also like European utilities, one of the few non-US AI beneficiaries. In the UK, we went tactically overweight UK equities earlier this year on attractive valuations and political stability following the Labour Party’s landslide victory in the UK election. Yet that hasn’t spurred the renewed investor interest in the country we expected, while earnings in the UK are outright contracting.

Our bottom line

Earnings are delivering on our overweight to US and Japanese equities where we see solid earnings growth holding up. Even with pockets of weakness elsewhere, getting granular reveals opportunities such as in European banks.

Market backdrop

US stocks rose to record highs in holiday-shortened trading last week. European stocks slipped on concerns about the fragile French government losing a confidence vote. The Mexican peso and Canadian dollar fell against the US dollar on worries about potential tariffs. Markets have been moving closer to our view that sticky inflation could limit Fed rate cuts, reinforced by the US PCE data. US 10-year yields hit a one-month low near 4.20%.

The US payrolls report for November is the key release. We watch for whether job growth rebounds from October’s unexpected drop due to weather-related disruptions. The recent path of job creation still supports our view that the labor market remains strong, fueled by elevated immigration. As immigration falls back, we see employment growth dropping to a slower pace than pre-pandemic – reflecting an aging population, rather than weakness in activity.

Week ahead

The chart shows that gold is the best performing asset year-to-date among a selected group of assets, while Brent crude is the worst.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of Nov. 28, 2024. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in US dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (US, Germany and Italy), Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.

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Euro area unemployment

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US job openings

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US trade data

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US payrolls

Read our past weekly commentaries here.

Big calls

Our highest conviction views on tactical (6-12 month) and strategic (long-term) horizons, December 2024

Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective, December 2024. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security.

Tactical granular views

Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, December 2024

Legend Granular

Our approach is to first determine asset allocations based on our macro outlook – and what’s in the price. The table below reflects this. It leaves aside the opportunity for alpha, or the potential to generate above-benchmark returns. The new regime is not conducive to static exposures to broad asset classes, in our view, but it is creating more space for alpha. For example, the alpha opportunity in highly efficient DM equities markets historically has been low. That’s no longer the case, we think, thanks to greater volatility, macro uncertainty and dispersion of returns. The new regime puts a premium on insights and skill, in our view.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The statements on alpha do not consider fees. Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.

Euro-denominated tactical granular views

Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, December 2024

Legend Granular

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a euro perspective, December 2024. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.

Meet the authors
Wei Li
Global Chief Investment Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
Bruno Rovelli
Chief Investment Strategist for Italy – BlackRock Investment Institute
Roelof Salomons
Chief Investment Strategist for the Netherlands – BlackRock Investment Institute
Carolina Martinez Arevalo
Portfolio Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute

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