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Mega forces playing out in real time
Market take
Weekly video_20251103
Devan Nathwani
Portfolio Strategist, BlackRock Investment Institute
Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take
Camera frame
Last week, the US and China reached a trade truce and mega cap tech companies upped planned AI build-out spending. These big developments highlight why mega forces matter now. The AI mega force remains a key equity driver, yet we track how it is broadening out across a wider array of markets and commodities.
Title slide: Mega forces playing out in real time
1: Trade truce shows immutable laws at work
Months of the US tariff threats and countermeasures ultimately resulted in limited disruptions between two of the world’s biggest trading partners. China has suspended export controls on rare earths – a vital input across several technologies including AI infrastructure – for a year in return for the US reducing tariffs and easing measures on ports and shipbuilding.
It’s a model of how an immutable economic law – supply chains can’t be rewired overnight – can constrain policy outcomes.
2: Geopolitical fragmentation ongoing
Yet strategic competition between the US and China is still deepening – reflecting ongoing geopolitical fragmentation, another key mega force. Beijing’s new five-year economic plan, focused on self-reliance, aims to help China develop its economy and achieve independence from the rest of the world. It faces several challenges, including a weak housing market, low consumer confidence and a fast-aging workforce. That keeps us neutral on Chinese stocks overall.
3: AI theme broadening
The AI theme remains a key driver of stocks. Several of the Magnificent Seven mega cap companies announced higher spending in their earnings calls last week as they pour money into chips and data centers. But we’ve seen the AI theme broaden to a wider array of markets and commodities this year. South Korea and Taiwan’s equity indices have surged, as have commodities like copper, needed for the AI buildout. Private markets like infrastructure – which are complex and not suitable for all investors – are also increasingly important for this buildout.
Outro: Here’s our Market take
Mega forces – particularly geopolitical fragmentation and AI – are a key investment lens for the short-term, not just the long-term. We stay overweight US stocks on the AI theme and Fed rate cuts, but watch as it broadens out to other asset classes and regions.
Closing frame: Read details: blackrock.com/weekly-commentary
Mega forces matter now
The US-China trade truce and last week's tech earnings highlight why mega forces are a key lens today. We stay overweight US stocks on the AI theme.
Market backdrop
US stocks pushed to new all-time highs on solid tech earnings. The Fed played down rate cut expectations for December, but we think it will likely cut again.
Week ahead
We await the release of US trade data for signs of tariff impacts before the US-China trade truce, and look to China trade data to see how exports held up.
The US-China trade truce plus mega cap tech earnings last week underscore why mega forces – or big structural changes – are key for near-term returns, not just the long term. The trade agreement highlights how immutable economic laws limit policy extremes even amid ongoing geopolitical fragmentation. Earnings updates from mega cap tech companies show how the AI buildout remains a key equity driver. We stay overweight US stocks, supported by Federal Reserve rate cuts.
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Biggest lift from net exports since pandemic
Value of China's exports, 2015-2025
Source: LSEG DataStream, China Customs, chart by BlackRock Investment Institute, November 2025. Note: Values are the sum, i.e. the yearly volume of the 12-month moving average, based on monthly data.
Last week’s big developments – the US and China reaching a trade truce and mega cap tech companies upping planned AI buildout spending – highlight how mega forces are playing out in real time. The truce shows how immutable economic laws – supply chains can’t be rewired overnight – can limit policy outcomes even as strategic competition between the US and China deepens. Yet even with all the tariffs and threats this year, China’s export engine has stayed remarkably strong – partially due to countries front-loading imports earlier this year before tariffs took effect. See the chart. Exports have served as a key growth driver for China’s sluggish economy. The net export contribution to GDP growth this year is on track to be the largest since 2020 when demand for its goods soared during the pandemic – and excluding that, the largest in two decades, according to Haver Analytics data.
China has suspended export controls on rare earths - a vital input across several technologies including AI infrastructure – for a year in return for the US reducing tariffs and easing measures on ports and shipbuilding. We think this should bring some near-term stability to US-China relations even amid the ongoing competition and broader geopolitical fragmentation rewiring supply chains. With its new five-year economic plan unveiled this week, Beijing is focusing on “self-reliance” in developing its economy and achieving independence from the US and rest of world – especially on technological developments such as quantum computing and nuclear fusion. China’s economy is still struggling with a weak housing market, low consumer confidence and structural challenges, notably a fast-aging workforce. That’s why we stay neutral on Chinese stocks overall but favor selective exposures such as the AI theme that has helped Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares – concentrated in tech – surge 28% this year, outperforming the US so far.
Trade truce and tech bets shape global dynamics
Last week also reinforced the AI mega force is a key driver of stocks. Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta together spent about $60 billion on capex last quarter – a major step-up - and all flagged higher spending ahead as they pour money into chips and data centers, according to earnings reports. Yet we are seeing more differentiated share performance and investor focus on how companies are earning revenues tied to this investment – and how they are financing it as these companies become more capital-intense, highlighted by Meta’s upsized $30 billion bond sale. We stay overweight US equities on the AI theme.
We’ve seen the AI theme broaden to a wider array of markets this year. Case in point: South Korean shares have surged 70% in local currency terms, especially with its chipmakers signing up for deals with OpenAI, while Taiwan’s local index has gained 23%. Copper has jumped nearly 30% to all-time highs as a key input to the wiring across mega forces, with power grids needing upgrades or expansion to drive AI data centers amid constrained copper supply. Private markets including infrastructure – which are complex and not suitable to all investors – are increasingly core to financing the AI buildout.
Our bottom line
Mega forces – notably geopolitical fragmentation and AI – are a key investment lens for the short-term, not just the long term. We stay overweight US stocks on the broadening AI theme, with risk appetite supported by Fed rate cuts.
Market backdrop
The S&P 500 climbed 3%, supported by strong tech earnings in a bumpy October and is set to notch its longest run of monthly gains since 2021. US 10-year Treasury yields rose to near 4.10% after the Federal Reserve cooled expectations for a December rate cut. We think the Fed will cut in December given that the central bank signaled as much in September – but the shift highlights committee divisions. Gold rebounded to around $4,000 after sliding from all-time highs.
The ongoing US government shutdown – now the second-longest in history – will likely delay September trade data. That leaves markets without a key indicator of tariff impacts before the US and China struck a truce on trade. China trade will give a snapshot on how its exports have held up heading into the truce. China inflation data will show whether Beijing’s stimulus efforts are helping pull the economy out of deflation. The Bank of England is expected to keep rates on hold.
Week ahead
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of October 30, 2025. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in US dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, spot bitcoin, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (US, Germany and Italy), Bloomberg Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bloomberg Global Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.
Nov. 4
US trade data (scheduled)
Nov. 6
BOE policy decision; China trade data
Nov. 8
China CPI and PPI
Read our past weekly commentaries here.
Big calls
Our highest conviction views on six- to 12-month (tactical) and over five-year (strategic) horizons, November 2025
| Reasons | ||
|---|---|---|
| Tactical | ||
| US equities | A softening labor market gives the Fed space to cut, helping ease political tensions from higher interest rates. We think rate cuts amid a notable slowing of activity without recession should support US stocks and the AI theme. | |
| Using FX to enhance income | FX hedging is now a source of income, especially when hedging euro area bonds back into US dollars. For example, 10-year government bonds in France or Spain offer more income when currency hedged than US investment grade credit, with yields above 5%. | |
| Seeking alpha sources | We identify sources of risk taking to be more deliberate in earning alpha. These include the potential impact of regulatory changes on corporate earnings, spotting crowded positions where markets could snap back and opportunities to provide liquidity during periods of stress. | |
| Strategic | ||
| Infrastructure equity and private credit | We see opportunities in infrastructure equity due to attractive relative valuations and mega forces. We think private credit will earn lending share as banks retreat – and at attractive returns. | |
| Fixed income granularity | We are overweight short-term inflation-linked bonds as US tariffs could push up inflation. Within nominal bonds, we favor developed market (DM) government bonds outside the US over global investment grade credit, given tight spreads. | |
| Equity granularity | We favor emerging over developed markets yet get selective in both. Emerging markets (EM) at the cross current of mega forces – like India – offer opportunities. In DM, we like Japan as the return of inflation and corporate reforms brighten the outlook. | |
Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective, November 2025. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security.
Tactical granular views
Six- to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, November 2025
We have lengthened our tactical investment horizon back to six to 12 months. The table below reflects this and, importantly, leaves aside the opportunity for alpha, or the potential to generate above-benchmark returns – especially at a time of heightened volatility.
| Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ||||||
| United States |  |
We are overweight. Policy-driven volatility and supply-side constraints are pressuring growth, but we see AI supporting corporate earnings. US valuations are backed by stronger earnings and profitability relative to other developed markets. | ||||
| Europe |  |
We are neutral. Greater unity and a pro-growth agenda across Europe could boost activity, yet we are watching how the bloc tackles its structural challenges before turning more optimistic. We note opportunities in financials and industries tied to defense and infrastructure spending. | ||||
| UK | |
We are neutral. Political stability could improve investor sentiment. Yet an increase in the corporate tax burden could hurt profit margins near term. | ||||
| Japan | |
We are overweight given the return of inflation and shareholder-friendly corporate reforms. We prefer unhedged exposures as the yen has tended to strengthen during bouts of market stress. | ||||
| Emerging markets | |
We are neutral. Valuations and domestic policy are supportive. Yet geopolitical tensions and concerns about global growth keep us sidelined for now. | ||||
| China | |
We are neutral. Trade policy uncertainty keeps us cautious, and policy stimulus is still limited. We still see structural challenges to China’s growth, including an aging population. | ||||
| Fixed income | ||||||
| Short US Treasuries | |
We are neutral. We view short-term Treasuries as akin to cash in our tactical views and we remove this overweight to turn neutral long-term Treasuries. | ||||
| Long US Treasuries | |
We are neutral. Yields could fall further as a softening labor market gives the Fed space to cut without its independence being called into question – even if the pressures pushing up yields persist. | ||||
| Global inflation-linked bonds | |
We are neutral. We see higher medium-term inflation, but cooling inflation and growth may matter more near term. | ||||
| Euro area government bonds | |
We are neutral. Yields are attractive, and term premium has risen closer to our expectations relative to US Treasuries. Peripheral bond yields have converged closer to core yields. | ||||
| UK Gilts | |
We are neutral. Gilt yields are off their highs, but we expect more market attention on long-term yields through the government’s November budget, given the difficulty it has had implementing spending cuts. | ||||
| Japanese government bonds |  |
We are underweight. We see room for yields to rise further on Bank of Japan rate hikes and a higher global term premium. | ||||
| China government bonds | |
We are neutral. Bonds are supported by looser policy. Yet we find yields more attractive in short-term DM paper. | ||||
| US agency MBS | |
We are overweight. We find income in agency MBS compelling and prefer them to US Treasuries for high-quality fixed income exposure. | ||||
| Short-term IG credit | |
We are overweight. Short-term bonds better compensate for interest rate risk. | ||||
| Long-term IG credit | |
We are underweight. Spreads are tight, so we prefer taking risk in equities. We favor Europe over the US. | ||||
| Global high yield | |
We are neutral. Spreads are tight, but corporate fundamentals are solid. The total income makes it more attractive than IG. | ||||
| Asia credit | |
We are neutral. We don’t find valuations compelling enough to turn more positive. | ||||
| Emerging hard currency | |
We are underweight. Spreads to US Treasuries are near historical averages. Trade uncertainty has eased, but we find local currency EM debt more attractive. | ||||
| Emerging local currency | |
We are neutral. Debt levels for many EMs have improved, and currencies have held up against trade uncertainty. We prefer countries with higher real interest rates. | ||||
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.
Euro-denominated tactical granular views
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, November 2025
| Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ||||
| Europe ex UK | |
We are neutral. Greater unity and a pro-growth agenda across Europe could boost activity, yet the bloc must tackle its structural challenges before we turn more optimistic. We note opportunities in financials and industries tied to defense and infrastructure spending. | ||
| Germany | |
We are neutral. Earnings growth is supportive relative to peers, and increased defense spending could benefit the infrastructure sector. But prolonged geopolitical uncertainty and fading euphoria over China’s stimulus could dent sentiment. | ||
| France | |
We are neutral. Ongoing political uncertainty could weigh on French companies, whose relative earnings have lagged the broader market. Yet major French firms rely on domestic activity for only a small share of their revenues and operations, shielding them from internal weakness. | ||
| Italy | |
We are neutral. Valuations are supportive relative to peers. Yet past growth and earnings outperformance largely stemmed from significant fiscal stimulus in 2022-2023, which is unlikely to be sustained in the coming years. | ||
| Spain | |
We are overweight. Valuations and earnings growth are supportive compared to other euro area stocks. Financials, utilities and infrastructure stocks stand to gain from a strong economic backdrop and advancements in AI. High exposure to emerging markets and easing Fed policy could boost equities further. | ||
| Netherlands | |
We are neutral. The Dutch stock market’s tilt to technology and semiconductors – key beneficiaries of rising AI demand – is offset by less-favorable valuations and a weaker earnings outlook compared to European peers. | ||
| Switzerland |  |
We are neutral, consistent with our broader European view. Earnings have improved, but valuations remain elevated compared to other European markets. The index’s defensive tilt may offer less support if global risk appetite stays strong. | ||
| UK | |
We are neutral. Political stability could improve investor sentiment. Yet an increase in the corporate tax burden could hurt profit margins near term. | ||
| Fixed income | ||||
| Euro area government bonds | |
We are neutral. Yields are attractive, and term premium has risen closer to our expectations relative to US Treasuries. Peripheral bond yields have converged closer to core yields. | ||
| German bunds | |
We are neutral. Potential fiscal stimulus and bond issuance could push yields up, but we think market pricing reflects this possibility. Market expectations for near-term policy rates are also aligned with our view. | ||
| French OATs | |
We are neutral. France faces continued challenges from elevated political uncertainty, high budget deficits and slow structural reforms, but these risks already seem priced into OATs and we don’t expect a worsening from here. | ||
| Italian BTPs | |
We are neutral. The spread over German bunds looks tight given its large budget deficits and growing public debt. Domestic factors remain supportive, with growth holding up relative to the rest of the euro area and Italian households showing solid demand to hold BTPs at higher yields. Domestic political pushback likely prevents defense spending from rising to levels that would resurface fiscal stability concerns. | ||
| UK gilts | |
We are neutral. Gilt yields are off their highs, but we expect more market attention on long-term yields through the government’s November budget, given the difficulty it has had implementing spending cuts. | ||
| Swiss government bonds | |
We are neutral. Markets are expecting policy rates to return to negative territory, which we deem unlikely. | ||
| European inflation-protected securities | |
We are neutral. We see higher medium-term inflation, but inflation expectations are firmly anchored. Cooling inflation and uncertain growth may matter more near term. | ||
| European investment grade | |
We are neutral on European investment grade credit, favoring short- to medium-term paper for quality income. We prefer European investment grade over the US Quality-adjusted spreads have tightened significantly relative to the US, but they remain wider, and we see potential for further convergence. | ||
| European high yield | |
We are overweight. The income potential is attractive, and we prefer European high yield for its more appealing valuations, higher quality and less sensitivity to interest rate swings compared with the US Spreads adequately compensate for the risk of a potential rise in defaults, in our view. | ||
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a euro perspective, November 2025. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.
Meet the authors
Jean Boivin
Head – BlackRock Investment Institute
Wei Li
Global Chief Investment Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
Glenn Purves
Global Head of Macro – BlackRock Investment Institute
Devan Nathwani
Portfolio Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
This material is for distribution to Professional Clients (as defined by the FCA Rules) and should not be relied upon by any other persons.
Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL. Tel: 020 7743 3000. Registered in England No. 2020394. For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded. BlackRock is a trading name of BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited.
Sources: Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.
Any research in this document has been procured and may have been acted on by BlackRock for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available only incidentally. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. They do not necessarily reflect the views of any company in the BlackRock Group or any part thereof and no assurances are made as to their accuracy.
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