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Watching for tariff impacts to kick in
Market take
Weekly video_20250616
Nicholas Fawcett
Senior Economist, BlackRock Investment Institute
Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take
Camera frame
US inflation data has been very volatile from month to month – and the full impact of tariffs is still to come. Add renewed conflict in the Middle East, and we’re likely in for more market swings.
Title slide: Watching for tariff impacts to kick in
We expect the Fed to hold rates steady this week as it waits for clarity on tariffs. Ongoing inflation pressures from a tight labor market will limit how much it can cut rates this year.
1: Inflation volatility to persist
Inflation rose less than expected in May. But wage pressures are still too high for inflation to settle at the Fed’s 2% target. We’re starting to see tariffs lift consumer prices – think appliances – but the full effect is still ahead.
Longer term, we see mega forces like aging populations geopolitical fragmentation, and the AI build out adding to inflationary pressures.
2: Economic rules binding near-term policy
US growth has also been volatile, strong one quarter, shrinking the next. Trade policy shifts add to uncertainty. But hard economic rules – like how supply chains can’t be rewired quickly without disruption – act as a constraint, as we’ve seen in US-China trade talks.
We brace for more policy-driven volatility as the 90-day tariff pause ends on July 9.
3: Central bank implications
Looking outside the US, tariffs and any sustained rise in oil prices could mean weaker global growth. The European Central Bank cut rates this month but signaled a pause ahead, even after lowering its 2025 growth outlook. We think the ECB has more room to cut as wage pressures cool, growth weakens, and softer demand helps inflation subside.
Outro: Here’s our Market take
Volatile economic data, like the CPI, reinforces our view that we are in a regime of greater macro volatility. We expect the Fed to keep rates steady and mega forces keep us overweight US stocks.
Closing frame: Read details: blackrock.com/weekly-commentary
Volatile new regime
Recent swings in US inflation highlight the volatile economic backdrop, even before the full tariff impact. We tap into mega forces that keep driving returns.
Market backdrop
Global stocks slid last week, led by Europe, after Israel launched an attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Oil future prices jumped more than 11%.
Week ahead
We are keeping an eye on any escalation between Israel and Iran. We think the Fed will hold rates steady again this week as it waits to see the impact of tariffs.
Swings in US CPI data reflect the elevated macro uncertainty we’ve long flagged. Inflation data don’t yet reflect the full tariff impact. Together with renewed conflict in the Middle East, that signals more volatility ahead. We think the Federal Reserve will sit tight this week as it waits for clarity. And ongoing inflation pressures from a tight labor market will limit how much it can cut rates. Looking through the noise, we still see mega forces like AI driving returns, keeping us overweight US stocks.
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More volatility ahead
Inflation volatility gauged in standard deviation, 1995-2025
Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, Bureau of Labor Statistics with data from Haver Analytics, June 2025. Notes: The chart shows the rolling standard deviation of month-on-month annualised core services CPI inflation excluding shelter, calculated over one-year and three-year intervals. Standard deviation measures the dispersion of data points from their average, with a higher value indicating more volatility.
The May US CPI rose less than expected last week, yet monthly data has been volatile since the pandemic. See the chart. Noisy economic data reflect the volatile new regime we’ve long noted. We expect this to persist. Wage pressures remain too high for inflation to settle at the Fed’s 2% target, with the gap between core and wage inflation near its widest in four years. The data showed signs of tariffs starting to lift consumer prices, like for appliances, but the full impact is still to come. Surveys by the National Federation of Independent Business suggest companies are ready to hike prices in response to tariffs, but they may delay that and workforce changes as they await clarity on tariffs. Longer term, we see ongoing inflation pressure from mega forces like the AI buildout, aging populations and geopolitical fragmentation. Latest example: the Israel-Iran conflict and potential oil price rises.
US growth hasn’t been immune to volatility, with quarterly data going from holding up to contracting in the past year. Evolving US trade policy is one source of uncertainty, yet hard economic rules – like how supply chains cannot be rewired quickly without disruption – act as a constraint, as we’ve seen in US-China trade talks and other tariff rollbacks. That’s why we keep our risk-on stance and an overweight to US stocks on a tactical six- to 12- month horizon, supported by mega forces like AI. The S&P 500 is back near its February record high as trade tensions cool, LSEG data show. We brace for more policy-driven volatility as the US floats plans for setting tariffs unilaterally before the 90-day pause ends on July 9.
Challenges for central banks
We see uncertainty around the economic impact of tariffs and inflation volatility keeping the Fed on hold for now – including at this week’s meeting. Longer term, persistent inflation pressures from tariffs and a tight labor market will likely limit how far the Fed can cut, even if tariff-driven supply disruptions dent growth. We think long-term US bonds yields can rise, keeping us underweight. We prefer inflation-linked bonds, even if they are yet to reflect long-term inflation pressures, in our view. On a strategic horizon of five years and longer, we like private credit as returns for debt with floating interest rates have risen with rates. We favor infrastructure equity, like stakes in airports and data centers: its returns are buffered from inflation and it outperforms amid supply constraints and high inflation. Private markets are complex and not suitable for all investors.
We think tariffs and any sustained oil price rises from the Israel-Iran conflict could leave other central banks facing weaker global growth. Should the conflict affect the security of critical trade routes, supply disruptions could add to inflation pressures. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates this month but signaled a pause ahead, even after lowering its 2025 growth projections. Greater fiscal spending could boost growth in time, but execution is key. We think the ECB has more room to cut as wage pressures and energy prices cool, and tariffs likely aren’t inflationary for Europe. We still prefer European to US investment grade and high-yield credit. That preference has served us well, but we keep an eye on relative valuations.
Our bottom line
Volatile economic data, like the CPI, is reinforcing our view that we are in a regime of greater macro volatility. We think the Fed will keep rates steady as it waits for tariff impacts to materialise. Mega forces keep us overweight US stocks.
Market backdrop
Global stocks slid last week after Israel launched a large-scale attack on Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure, as well as its military and scientific command. Europe’s Stoxx 600 fell 1.7%, while the S&P 500 and Japan’s Topix index retreated about 0.5%. Crude oil futures surged over 11% last week, briefly hitting a five-month high after news of the attack broke. US 10-year Treasury yields slid about 10 basis points over the week to 4.41% but remain 50 basis points above their April lows.
All eyes are on global central bank meetings this week – but we don’t expect any policy rate changes. We think tariff uncertainty and inflation pressures from labor supply constraints will keep the Federal Reserve on hold. We are watching for comments from the Bank of England on the weak growth outlook. And any escalation in the Middle East will be key to track as potential disruptions to energy supplies or infrastructure could have a bigger market impact.
Week ahead
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of June 12, 2025. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in US dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (US, Germany and Italy), Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.
June 17
Bank of Japan policy decision
June 18
Federal Reserve policy decision; UK CPI
June 19
Bank of England policy decision
June 20
Japan CPI
Read our past weekly commentaries here.
Meet the authors
Wei Li
Global Chief Investment Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
Glenn Purves
Global Head of Macro – BlackRock Investment Institute
Ben Powell
Chief Investment Strategist for the Middle East and APAC — BlackRock Investment Institute
Nicholas Fawcett
Senior Economist – BlackRock Investment Institute
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Sources: Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.