BlackRock
Investment Institute

BlackRock Bottom Line

Wei Li

BlackRock Chief Investment Strategist

The world’s economies and markets are being transformed by mega forces, especially artificial intelligence. As we track this transformation into 2026, the three investment themes in our 2026 outlook are: one, Micro is macro; two, Leveraging up; and three, Diversification mirage.

First: Micro is macro. Companies’ capital spending ambitions tied to the AI buildout are huge - big enough to have a macroeconomic impact. The overall revenues that AI eventually generates could justify the spend at a macro level, but it’s unclear how much tech companies will capture. We think they’ll adjust plans as visibility on potential revenues and energy constraints improve.

Second: Leveraging up. AI spending comes first, benefits and revenues are likely to only come later. That creates a need for long-term financing – making greater leverage inevitable. We expect companies to keep tapping public and private credit markets, creating opportunities for investors.

Third: Diversification mirage. In markets driven by just a few forces, allocations made under the guise of diversification may now in fact be big active bets. Investors should be ready to pivot quickly. We think traditional diversifiers like long-term Treasuries will no longer be the reliable buffer they once were. We prefer exposures with their own sources of returns, such as private markets and hedge funds.

The bottom line is: we stay pro-risk and think the AI theme will remain a key driver of equity returns. We see an environment ripe for active investing.
_________________________________________________

Substantiation for opening line for theme 1 per L&C: External estimates of AI corporate capital spending ambitions range between U.S.$5-8 trillion globally through 2030, mostly in the U.S. This is based on data center deployment estimates (gigawatt terms) and capex per gigawatt assumptions reflecting cost inflation, GPU life, phasing and hyperscaler market share. We cross-referenced with other sources including McKinsey & Company, Boston Consulting Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, International Energy Agency, U.S. Department of Energy, Bloomberg, NEF, Schneider Electric, Electric Power Research Institute and others. Data as of November 2025
Disclosures

This document is marketing material: Before investing please read the Prospectus and the KIID available on www.blackrock.com/it, which contain a summary of investors’ rights. Capital at Risk.

Risk Warnings 

Capital at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and are not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested. 

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy. 

Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.

This material is intended for information purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities, funds or strategies to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The opinions expressed are as of December 2024 and are subject to change without notice. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investing involves risks. BlackRock does and may seek to do business with companies covered in this video content. As a result, viewers should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this video.

In the U.S. and Canada, this material is intended for public distribution.

In the UK and Non-European Economic Area (EEA) countries: this is issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL. Tel: + 44 (0)20 7743 3000. Registered in England and Wales No. 02020394. For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded. Please refer to the Financial Conduct Authority website for a list of authorised activities conducted by BlackRock. 

In the European Economic Area (EEA): this is issued by BlackRock (Netherlands) B.V. is authorised and regulated by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. Registered office Amstelplein 1, 1096 HA, Amsterdam, Tel: 020 – 549 5200, Tel: 31-20-549-5200. Trade Register No. 17068311 For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded.

In Italy, For information on investor rights and how to raise complaints please go to https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/compliance/investor-right available in Italian.

In Switzerland: This document is marketing material.

In Latin America: this material is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice nor an offer or solicitation to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any shares of any Fund (nor shall any such shares be offered or sold to any person) in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities law of that jurisdiction. If any funds are mentioned or inferred to in this material, it is possible that some or all of the funds may not have been registered with the securities regulator of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay or any other securities regulator in any Latin American country and thus might not be publicly offered within any such country. The securities regulators of such countries have not confirmed the accuracy of any information contained herein. The provision of investment management and investment advisory services is a regulated activity in Mexico thus is subject to strict rules. For more information on the Investment Advisory Services offered by BlackRock Mexico please refer to the Investment Services Guide available at www.blackrock.com/mx

In Singapore, this is issued by BlackRock (Singapore) Limited (Co. registration no. 200010143N). This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

In Hong Kong, this material is issued by BlackRock Asset Management North Asia Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong

In Australia, issued by BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited ABN 13 006 165 975, AFSL 230 523 (BIMAL). This material provides general information only and does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation, needs or circumstances. Refer to BIMAL’s Financial Services Guide on its website for more information. Before making any investment decision, you should assess whether the material is appropriate for you and obtain financial advice tailored to you having regard to your individual objectives, financial situation, needs and circumstances.

Any research in this document has been procured and may have been acted on by BlackRock for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available only incidentally. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. They do not necessarily reflect the views of any company in the BlackRock Group or any part thereof and no assurances are made as to their accuracy.

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest in any BlackRock funds and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer.

© 2025 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners