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“3 Things You Need to Know + 1 You Don’t!”
The 3+1 Investors Series is BlackRock’s weekly investor video franchise, created to start your week with insights from the voices shaping markets. Featuring the firm’s leading investors, each episode highlights three perspectives on what’s driving markets today.

BlackRock | 3+1 Series
Episode 123 FC: Mike Pyle & Tom Becker
Transcript 100626

Mike: What were you saying?
Tom: I’m sitting here in Milan. All right.
Mike: Ah.

Good morning, I’m Mike Pyle, the Deputy head of the Portfolio Management Group at BlackRock. It's the week of October 12th. Here are three things you need to know, and one you don’t.

Number one.
US fiscal policy is increasingly important as a market driver. Deficits, nearly 6% of GDP. We’re seeing interest expense rise to 3.5% of the economy on interest expense. There’s huge demand for capital, not just in the federal government, but around the AI buildout as well. That increased competition for capital is pushing interest rates higher. Because it’s real rates that reflects higher growth and productivity expectations, we think equity markets can remain a source of growth and remain resilient.

Next Up.

Mike:
My friend and colleague, Tom Becker. Tom, I know you’re in Milan right now. What’s front of mind about what’s driving European economics and markets?

Tom:
Mike, great question. Fiscal policy is front and center in the driver's seat of markets. You got a 2-3% budget deficit in Italy, 5-6% in France, and a big question mark in Germany with the political instability. What we’re seeing is that common currency area is really moving in different directions and that’s driving changes in asset correlation that we haven’t seen in over a decade. Punchline is European equities are looking oversold, but the ECB is gonna have to keep hiking. 

Which brings us to.
My colleagues at the BlackRock Investment Institute published their updated geopolitical risk dashboard. I think what it highlights is stresses on global energy markets. We don't see a definitive resolution in The Middle East. We see ongoing stresses. When we look to the Russian-Ukraine conflict we see the likelihood of escalation from here, rather than deescalation. Bottom line, energy has been a big subtheme in 2026. That’s likely to continue.

And finally.

Tom:
Mike, food here is excellent. Had a risotto. Can’t beat it. Hot take? Come to Italy for the food, also the coffee.

Mike:
Well, same basic take, but my hot take is that actually the best Italian dish, pizza, is right here on the east coast of the United States, not in Italy. Love it though, I do.

Tom:
Great, love it.

Mike:
Yeah. Best slice in the city? Di Fara. Avenue J.

To get more 3+1, be sure to follow us on LinkedIn and YouTube. We’ll see you next week.

3+1 Episode 23: Mike Pyle and Tom Becker

Mike Pyle, Deputy Head of the Portfolio Management Group at BlackRock, is joined by Tom Becker, Senior Portfolio Manager on the Global Tactical Asset Allocation Team, to explore three things investors should consider when navigating global markets and the forces shaping the investment landscape.

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BlackRock | 3+1 Series
Episode 122: Ibrahim Kanan
Transcript 100126

The sun’s out, who’s complaining? 

Good morning, I am Ibrahim Kanan. Portfolio manager, U.S. Core Equity team, at BlackRock. It's the week of October 5th. Here are three things you need to know, and one that you absolutely do not. 

First up.
The S&P 500 is expected to grow earnings 30% this year. That is a really extraordinary level of earnings growth. As we head into Q3 earnings, one thing stands out: earnings are finally broadening out. Strong earnings growth is showing up across a variety of sectors and industries. And what that means for investors is that looking for opportunities outside of the mega caps is more exciting than it’s ever been. 

Which brings us to. 
While earnings are broadening out, the indices are not. The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 are 40% of the index, double what it was ten years ago. More and more of our clients across the US, across Europe, are asking the question: how do we differentiate relative to our induces? A case for active management is more compelling than it's ever been. An active manager can capitalize on those opportunities of broadening earnings across the index and get you exposure to the best of the rest. 

Number three. 
The reality is, volatility is here to stay. And what that means is portfolio construction is more important than it has ever been. The old way of fundamental investing is dead. What matters today is having a portfolio of stocks that work well together. Volatility that we saw in July and August proved that stock selection combined with real portfolio construction allows you to weather a variety of market backdrops and a variety of market opportunities. 

And finally.
People ask how do you deal with the unpredictability of the markets? Well, as a Jets fan, unpredictability is not new to me. We had the butt fumble, we’ve had a quarterback get punched, and we had a quarterback whose spleen almost exploded. Being a Jets fan is the best thing you can do to prepare for a career as an investor. My hot take? The Jets are gonna win the super bowl…and when they don't, at least I'm prepared. 

To get more 3+1 make sure to follow us on LinkedIn & YouTube. We’ll see you next week. 

Video Playlist

BlackRock | 3+1 Series
Episode 122: Ibrahim Kanan
Transcript 100126

The sun’s out, who’s complaining? 

Good morning, I am Ibrahim Kanan. Portfolio manager, U.S. Core Equity team, at BlackRock. It's the week of October 5th. Here are three things you need to know, and one that you absolutely do not. 

First up.
The S&P 500 is expected to grow earnings 30% this year. That is a really extraordinary level of earnings growth. As we head into Q3 earnings, one thing stands out: earnings are finally broadening out. Strong earnings growth is showing up across a variety of sectors and industries. And what that means for investors is that looking for opportunities outside of the mega caps is more exciting than it’s ever been. 

Which brings us to. 
While earnings are broadening out, the indices are not. The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 are 40% of the index, double what it was ten years ago. More and more of our clients across the US, across Europe, are asking the question: how do we differentiate relative to our induces? A case for active management is more compelling than it's ever been. An active manager can capitalize on those opportunities of broadening earnings across the index and get you exposure to the best of the rest. 

Number three. 
The reality is, volatility is here to stay. And what that means is portfolio construction is more important than it has ever been. The old way of fundamental investing is dead. What matters today is having a portfolio of stocks that work well together. Volatility that we saw in July and August proved that stock selection combined with real portfolio construction allows you to weather a variety of market backdrops and a variety of market opportunities. 

And finally.
People ask how do you deal with the unpredictability of the markets? Well, as a Jets fan, unpredictability is not new to me. We had the butt fumble, we’ve had a quarterback get punched, and we had a quarterback whose spleen almost exploded. Being a Jets fan is the best thing you can do to prepare for a career as an investor. My hot take? The Jets are gonna win the super bowl…and when they don't, at least I'm prepared. 

To get more 3+1 make sure to follow us on LinkedIn & YouTube. We’ll see you next week.