Credit Currents

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Progress, with pressure points

July 16, 2026 | Dominique Bly

The macro backdrop remains broadly supportive, with growth expectations still positive as some headwinds have eased. But persistent inflation is keeping policy rates and borrowing costs elevated.

In our latest Credit Currents Quarterly, we examine how this backdrop is shaping liquid and private credit. Across both markets, income continues to support returns.

Beneath the surface, however, dispersion is increasing. Software borrowers remain under strain, AI-related issuance is testing demand, and private credit outcomes are diverging across vintages. The opportunity remains attractive, but disciplined underwriting, manager selection, and portfolio construction are becoming more important.

Additional perspectives on credit

Q2 2026 - Uneven resilience

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Q1 2026 - Dispersion, not disruption

With peak macro headwinds likely behind us, the focus shifts from broad disruption to sharper differentiation. In this environment, income still stands out — but so does the need to be selective.

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Q4 2025 — Still climbing the ‘wall of worry’

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1H 2026 Private Credit Chartbook

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