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Institutional Investor Insights

Institutional Investor Insights (In3) is a unified program that brings together BlackRock’s institutional platform views and events, delivering an actionable outlook, asset allocation themes and timely talking points to help inform portfolio discussions.

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Market recap: what to know now

A quick view of key market signals, what they may mean for portfolio positioning and talking points on timely themes.

3.3%

Core PCE YoY vs. 2% target1

1.5%

Real GDP Q2 2026 annualized2

4.1%

Unemployment rate3

29%

S&P earnings growth YoY vs. 9.5% 10-year average4

Inside institutional outlook investing image

What changed this month

Timely platform level talking points

Tech/momentum positioning has materially reset - One of the largest momentum and crowded-tech unwinds in years has largely cleared positioning, but AI fundamentals remain intact.

Q2 earnings strengthen confidence in the AI cycle - Strong earnings results, continued cloud acceleration, and persistent capacity constraints that extend well into 2027-28 reinforce the durability of AI infrastructure spending.

The AI story has broadened beyond semis - Focus is shifting from headline AI winners to power, grids, data centers, memory, chips, utilities, infrastructure and Asian supply chains.

The market is more comfortable with earnings concentration than a month ago - Leadership remains concentrated in a few mega-cap technology companies, but Q2 earnings have exceeded expectations and management commentary remains broadly constructive.

A new Fed regime is emerging under Kevin Warsh - A less guidance-driven Fed places more emphasis on real-time data, inflation credibility and balance-sheet tools, reducing the central bank's role in market price setting.

The long end of the Treasury curve is under renewed pressure - A dovish Fed Chair, AI-driven capital demand and inflation uncertainty have pushed investors toward carry and shorter-duration exposures rather than the long bond.

Securitized assets attractive on yield and diversification - Tight corporate spreads are pushing the platform toward securitized credit for differentiated yield.

Oil and commodities have shifted from a geopolitical trade to a scarcity trade - Middle East tensions remain relevant, but the bigger theme is energy demand from AI, power infrastructure constraints, refining tightness and broader resource scarcity.

Private markets and portfolio construction are more selective - The platform is increasingly emphasizing dispersion, liquidity constraints, exit selectivity, AI/software disruption risk and more disciplined use of infrastructure, private credit and alternatives.

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