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Institutional Investor Insights

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Market recap: what to know now

A quick view of key market signals, what they may mean for portfolio positioning and talking points on timely themes.

3.2%

Core PCE year over year vs. 2% target1

2.0%

Real GDP Q1 2026 annualized2

4.3%

Unemployment rate3

29%

S&P earnings growth year over year vs. 9.5% 10-year average4

Inside institutional outlook investing image

What changed this month

Timely platform level talking points

U.S. equity leadership reinforced – Optimism for U.S. equities increased, compared to developed non-U.S. equities, especially Europe. We see greater concern for European exposure on energy costs, weaker growth momentum, and potentially less earnings support.

Focus on AI as core equity theme, but meaning of ‘AI’ is expanding – Preference for AI exposure broadened beyond semis into infrastructure, software, power, data centers, and EM Asia supply-chain leaders.

Shift from beta to precision - Less broad equity confidence and more targeted conviction in things like quality growth, AI, momentum, and active strategies. Optimism for energy increased to hedge Persian Gulf/geopolitical risk, not simply to chase oil.

Rate cuts delayed; “higher-for-longer” – Views have shifted away from near-term easing expectations toward potential delayed and shallower cutting cycles.

Duration trimmed – We see inflation risk and more potential for unstable / unreliable performance of duration as a hedge leading us to a modest concern for duration.

Credit remains constructive, but selective – Constructive view for EM corporate debt while cautious on mortgages and U.S. IG exposure. Still generally confident in securitized credit to corporate credit.

Commodities upgraded to strategic role - Emphasis as both inflation and geopolitical hedges, not just cyclical trades.

Stronger shift to alternatives & diversification - More conviction in liquid alts, multi-strategy, and real assets as complements to traditional portfolios.

Digital assets: clearer institutional adoption - Improved confidence in infrastructure, regulation, and tokenization, moving from exploratory to early adoption.

Energy security and AI drive infrastructure - Power grid spending > $470 billion in 2025 and projected to grow ~16% annually to support increasing renewable energy demand.5

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