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Private markets
Global Real Estate Outlook: Seizing on the Cyclical Uplift
Key takeaways
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01
The real estate market appears to be pivoting
The global real estate market appears to be emerging from the most recent downturn in capital values. Interest rate stabilization is providing some clarity to pricing and driving more buyers to the table. However, the future investment landscape will likely be more volatile than what was experienced in the post-GFC era.
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02
Nascent signs of increased activity
Institutional investors are hopping back into bidding tents, and lenders are returning to the market, indicating nascent signs of life for improving investment activity. Transactions will likely meaningfully recover in the second half of 2024, aiding price discovery.
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03
Resilient demand and at a cyclical trough
Demand drivers are expected to remain resilient over the next few quarters, supporting real estate fundamentals. At the same time, investors today can benefit from entering at the cyclical trough and capitalizing on dislocated pricing while aligning with key structural trends.
A whole new world of reshoring and near-shoring
Geopolitical fragmentation is a key mega force that will shape the future world in the new investment regime of higher macro and market volatility, and the BlackRock Investment Institute has highlighted it as a key investment theme for all asset classes. A cascading of recent events, including the U.S. trade wars, the pandemic, and the Ukraine invasion, have built on each other and exacerbated volatility.
Companies globally have been adjusting to this new world by rewiring their supply chains to build greater resilience in the face of disruptive events. Localizing supply chains can shield against supply risks and help businesses adjust quickly to changes in demand and supply. The U.S. has seen an uptick in investment in manufacturing, consistent with higher-than-average job openings in manufacturing and good wage growth. In Europe, nearly two thirds of countries say they plan to restructure their supply chain in the next five years, with the most noted concern being ongoing political instability (source: Inverto).
The rewiring of supply chains will likely create more opportunities for real estate investors. For tenants, having the right industrial/logistics assets is key for an optimized and more localized supply chain. At the same time, real estate investors likely need to ensure investments are future proofed for the supply chains of tomorrow.
The global real estate market has likely found a bottom, at least in the transactions market. Investment activity is expected to pick up and expected improvements in transaction volumes will aid price discovery for many market participants.
Simon Durkin
Research & Strategy Team
Simon Durkin
Head of EMEA Real Estate Research
Alex Symes
Head of US Real Estate Research
Yasmine Kamaruddin
U.S. Real Estate Research
Chloe Soar
EMEA Real Estate Research
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Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Asset allocation and diversification may not protect against market risk, loss of principal or volatility of returns. Actual investment outcomes may vary. The model portfolios should not be construed as investment advice. There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions or are suitable for all investors and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits. The above are representations of various model portfolios and no guarantee is being made that the structure of other similar portfolios will remain the same or that similar results will be achieved.
Risk Warnings
Capital at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and are not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy.
Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.
Real Estate Risk. The value of any real estate investment may be significantly diminished in the event of a downturn in the real estate market. Real estate investments are subject to many factors including adverse changes in economic conditions, adverse local market conditions and risks associated with the acquisition, financing, ownership, operation and disposal of real estate and the value of real property will generally be a matter of a Valuer’s opinion rather than fact.
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