INSIGHTS & VIEWS
INVESTMENT INSIGHTS
Our thought leadership in investing, risk management, portfolio construction and trading solutions.
Elga Bartsch
Head of Macro Research
Elga Bartsch, PhD, Managing Director, heads up economic and markets research at the Blackrock Investment Institute (BII). BII provides connectivity between BlackRock's portfolio managers, originates economic and market research and publishes insights. Prior to joining BlackRock, Dr. Bartsch was Global Co-Head of Economics and Chief European Economist at Morgan Stanley in London. She started her career as a research associate at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a large German economic think-tank where she worked at the President's office and managed the Advanced Studies in International Economic Policy Research, a post-graduate program in international macroeconomics.
Dr. Bartsch has more than 20 years of macro research experience and is a member of the ECB Shadow Council and a trustee of the IFO Institute for economic research. She also served on and chaired the Economic and Monetary Policy Committee of the German Banking Association. Having studied at the University of Hannover and the London School of Economics, Dr. Bartsch graduated with a Master's degree from Kiel University where she subsequently also completed a PhD.
Read publications
BII Global Outlook in Charts
Dec 7, 2020
We have entered a new investment order. The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated profound shifts in how economies and societies operate across four dimensions: sustainability, inequality, geopolitics and the joint macro policy revolution.
Why we are turning bullish for 2021
Dec 7, 2020
Read about the reason behind our pro-risk stance for 2021.
Vaccines shape 2021 outlook
Nov 16, 2020
We discuss the implications of Covid vaccines on the 2021 outlook.
2021 global outlook: A new investment order
Nov 10, 2020
We have entered a new investment order. The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated profound shifts in how economies and societies operate.
Investing after the U.S. election
Nov 9, 2020
We discuss the investment implication of the U.S. election.
BII Global Outlook in Charts September 2020
Oct 29, 2020
We see a new investment landscape. The impact from Covid-19 will change the course of society, the economy and financial markets for years to come.
UK: a case study in virus dynamics
Oct 12, 2020
We evaluate the virus shock in the UK with three signposts.
U.S. election through a sectoral lens
Oct 5, 2020
Read about the implications of the U.S. election for key sectors.
Greater inflation risks ahead
Sep 21, 2020
Read about the forces driving a higher inflation regime in coming years.
Changing credit views amid volatility
Sep 7, 2020
Read about how to approach strategic asset allocations in the post-Covid world.
Real resilience in sustainability
Jul 27, 2020
We show how sustainable investing can add real resilience to portfolios by highlighting an underappreciated climate-related risk: water stress.
2020 Midyear outlook: The future is running at us
Jun 26, 2020
The coronavirus shock is accelerating structural trends in inequality, globalization, macro policy and sustainability. This is fundamentally reshaping the investment landscape.
Warming up to Europe
Jun 22, 2020
Read about why we are warming up to European assets in our weekly commentary.
Private markets as diversifiers
Jun 15, 2020
What role do private markets play in a low-interest, post-Covid world? Read more in our weekly commentary.
Policy revolution
Jun 11, 2020
We discuss the significance of the unprecedented global policy response to the coronavirus crisis.
Policy revolution: What's next?
Jun 8, 2020
Read about the policy revolution in the weekly commentary.
China emerges from virus lockdowns
Jun 1, 2020
China’s economy is restarting after emerging from the lockdowns. Read more in our weekly commentary.
Europe bond outlook under review
May 11, 2020
We review our stance on euro area peripherals after a surprise German court ruling.
How large is the coronavirus macro shock?
Apr 6, 2020
Global economic activity is not simply contracting. It is being deliberately frozen. Making sense of the ultimate macro implications for asset prices is about trying to get a grip on the orders of magnitude involved.
Upgrading credit
Apr 6, 2020
We upgrade our view on credit at the wake of policy response to the coronavirus shock.
A rebalancing act
Mar 23, 2020
We favor rebalancing portfolios after the selloff in equities and other risk assets. Read why in our Weekly Commentary.
Looking through the market turmoil
Mar 16, 2020
We do not see the coronavirus shock sparking a 2008-like crisis. Read why in our weekly commentary.
Policy response to virus takes shape
Mar 9, 2020
A decisive monetary-fiscal policy action is key to combat the outbreak’s economic fallout. Read more in our weekly commentary.
Virus outbreak turns us cautious
Mar 2, 2020
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting our outlook on global growth – and asset views? Learn more in our weekly commentary.
Testing our global outlook
Feb 17, 2020
We see global growth edging higher in 2020, though the coronavirus outbreak has added uncertainties around the timing of the pickup.
U.S. equities: we are still neutral
Feb 10, 2020
We are still neutral on U.S. equities despite their outperformance in recent weeks. Read why in our weekly commentary.
Coronavirus worry clouds markets
Feb 3, 2020
The coronavirus outbreak has spooked markets. Read about its potential risks to the global economy in our weekly commentary.
U.S. dollar underpins EM assets
Jan 27, 2020
We explain why we like cyclical assets including Japanese and emerging market equities in our weekly commentary.
On the risk of regime shifts
Jan 22, 2020
The macro debate tends to center on the state of the business cycle and the risk of a recession. We think that this is too narrow a question to ask. We consider a broad range of macro regimes that drive market returns.
A cyclical rotation
Jan 20, 2020
We explain why we like cyclical assets including Japanese and emerging market equities in our weekly commentary.
Geopolitical risks on our 2020 radar
Jan 13, 2020
We highlight three key themes in geopolitics to monitor in 2020 – and what it means for investing – in our weekly commentary.
Why we like inflation-linked bonds
Jan 6, 2020
We lay out some reasons behind our preference for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) in our Weekly commentary.
2020 Global outlook: Testing limits
Dec 19, 2019
Powerful structural trends are testing limits — and threaten to intersect with the near-term outlook and become market drivers.
Our top investment calls for 2020
Dec 16, 2019
We have made meaningful changes to our asset views heading into 2020. Read more in our Weekly commentary.
Guide to our 2020 outlook
Dec 9, 2019
Why should you read our 2020 Global outlook? We highlight the key takeaways in our weekly commentary.
Global investment outlook 2020 deck
Dec 6, 2019
Learn about our 2020 investment outlook. We highlight three new investment themes and update our asset views under our new tactical asset allocation framework.
Taking stock of our 2019 views
Dec 2, 2019
We identified the protectionist push as a key market driver early this year but we did not foresee the massive move down in global yields. Read more in our weekly commentary.
A rethink on government bonds’ role
Nov 25, 2019
Today’s ultra-low yield backdrop challenges the role of government bonds as portfolio ballast. Read more in our weekly commentary.
Debating our 2020 outlook
Nov 11, 2019
What lies ahead in 2020? Our answer will depend on debates at our outlook forum this week. Read more in our weekly commentary.
Late-cycle easing may end soon
Nov 4, 2019
The Federal Reserve has signaled the end of its rate cuts for now. What next? Read more in our weekly commentary.
Reaffirming our EM views after a rally
Oct 28, 2019
EM debt has rallied amid a perceived easing of trade tensions. We cover the investing implications in our weekly commentary.
Geopolitics' clout on markets persists
Oct 21, 2019
We see geopolitical risks as a persistent key driver of the global economy and markets. Read why in our weekly commentary.
Why earnings season matters
Oct 7, 2019
Earnings will be key for further U.S. equity gains. Read why in our weekly commentary.
A growth recovery in waiting
Oct 2, 2019
We update our outlook on the economy for the rest of 2019 and its investment implications. Read more in our weekly commentary.
Global investment outlook 2019 - update
Sep 30, 2019
We revisit our 2019 investment themes and illustrate how geopolitics has become the key driver of economies and markets.
Our take on the factor reversal
Sep 23, 2019
Has momentum’s moment passed? Read our take in the weekly commentary.
Lower growth, higher inflation
Sep 16, 2019
Where is U.S. economy going against the background of ongoing trade tensions? Read our take in the weekly commentary.
UK political upheaval: market implications
Sep 9, 2019
Deep divisions over a potential Brexit have unsettled UK politics. We examine the investing implications in our weekly commentary.
Back to school: our themes put to the test
Sep 3, 2019
Intensifying trade frictions reinforce a key theme of our outlook but may challenge our moderately pro-risk stance. Read more.
Dealing with the next downturn
Aug 14, 2019
We outline the contours of a framework for coordinated monetary and fiscal policy to fight the next downturn at a time when global yields are plumbing new depths.
How to navigate escalating trade disputes
Aug 12, 2019
U.S.-China tensions have escalated, spooking global markets. Read about how to navigate the situation in our weekly commentary.
Policy pivot confirmed; underpins risk assets
Aug 5, 2019
We see dovish monetary policies extending the cycle and supporting risk assets, with protectionism the key risk. Read more in our weekly commentary.
The importance of government bonds
Jul 29, 2019
We see government bonds still offering meaningful protection even after yields have fallen. Read why in our weekly commentary.
Why we upgrade European assets
Jul 22, 2019
We expect the ECB to shift decisively dovish in coming months and upgrade European assets. Read more in our weekly commentary.
Seeking income in emerging market debt
Jul 15, 2019
Central banks’ dovish pivot should stretch the cycle, supporting our upgrade of EM debt. Read more in our weekly commentary.
Global investment outlook midyear 2019
Jul 8, 2019
We refresh our 2019 investment themes and update our asset views against a backdrop of slowing growth and rising macro uncertainty.
The gulf between oil and geopolitics
Jul 1, 2019
Gulf tensions have spiked, but oil prices have not reacted as strongly. Why the disconnect? Read more in our weekly commentary.
Evolving bond views as central banks shift
Jun 24, 2019
Major central banks have shifted toward more dovish stances. We examine the implications for our bond views.
Our midyear outlook debates
Jun 17, 2019
The firm’s senior decision makers debated the midyear market outlook last week in London. We share the gist of our debates.
Postcards from China
Jun 10, 2019
We share takeaways from a field trip to China amid rising U.S-China rivalry. Read details in our weekly commentary.
Getting a grip on inflation expectations
Jun 3, 2019
The Fed is considering a new policy framework to better steer inflation expectations. We examine the implications.
Fed to raise its inflation game?
May 31, 2019
The Federal Reserve is reviewing its monetary policy strategy amid concerns that the current policy toolkit won’t be powerful enough to counter a future economic downturn. The Fed is considering options to steer inflation expectations that could have important economic and market implications.
A renewed spring in Europe’s step
Apr 16, 2019
We expect Europe to shake off its current soft patch, getting a boost from China’s stimulus efforts and any resulting rebound in global trade.
Profit margins under pressure
Mar 8, 2019
We dissect the likely deterioration of corporate profit margins during the late phase of the business cycle, especially in the US, and what it means for equities and credit markets.
Slowing – but still growing
Jan 9, 2019
We believe we are still early in the late phase of the US business cycle and that a recession in late 2019 is unlikely.
Global investment outlook 2019 (International)
Dec 7, 2018
We identify new market themes for 2019 and refresh our asset views.
Global investment outlook 2019
Dec 7, 2018
We identify new market themes for 2019 and refresh our asset views.
Macro and market perspectives - A tale of tighter conditions
Dec 6, 2018
We introduce a new measure of financial conditions and explain what this means for the growth outlook.
Macro and market perspectives - Navigating neutral rates by the North Star
Nov 19, 2018
We introduce a new estimate of the short-term neutral rate of interest (r-star) and explain its significance for monetary policy and asset valuations.
Macro and market perspectives - The danger of elevated trade frictions
Oct 11, 2018
We explain why we see elevated trade frictions as the biggest risk to the US-led expansion and spell out how prolonged tensions could damage confidence and risk assets. We also introduce a “nowcast” on global trade growth to track its momentum.
Global investment outlook Q4 2018
Oct 1, 2018
We revisit our 2018 investment themes and take a deep dive into the prospects for emerging market (EM) assets after an unexpectedly drawn-out selloff.
Macro and market perspectives - Beware of the Q Trap
Aug 31, 2018
We explore the narrative behind quantitative tightening (QT) and explain why it is crucial to look at financial conditions more broadly – especially the importance of risk appetite and private sector balance sheets in creating credit.
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