The moment we’ve spent over a year waiting for has arrived: the Federal Reserve has officially cut interest rates for the first time since March 2020.
The impact of a Fed rate cut on money market funds and bonds
With $6.1T still sitting in money market funds and an additional $350B invested in ultra-short bond funds, many investors are likely starting to plan for the next phase of their income portfolios. After all, the one certainty we have around Fed rate cuts is that, when the Fed cuts interest rates, cash yields come down.1
When the Fed starts cutting rates, yields fall… particularly in shorter-dated bonds
Average 12m yield change following the first rate cut, 1981-2020
Source: BlackRock, with data from Bloomberg as of 8/31/24. Yield change calculations begin the month in which the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. Yields represented by generic US Treasuries. Returns represented by the respective ICE BofA US Treasury indices for each maturity bucket. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The good news? Most assets have historically done well when the Fed starts cutting interest rates. As is frequently the case, staying invested may be the most important decision that you can make.
Stocks, bonds and alternatives have historically done well when the Fed starts cutting
12M performance following the first Fed cut
Source: Morningstar as of 7/31/2024. The first Fed cut refers to the first time the Federal Reserve cuts the federal funds rate after an interest rate hiking or pause cycle. This can begin to impact other types of interest rates across the public and private sectors. Long-term treasuries represented by the Bloomberg US Treasury 20+ Year Index, Growth stocks represented by the Russell 1000 Growth TR Index, Alternatives by the Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index, Core bonds by the Bloomberg US Agg Bond Index, Large caps by the S&P 500 Index, Cash by the Money Market Taxable Fund average, High yield by the Bloomberg High Yield Corporate Index, and U.S. small cap stocks represented by the Russell 2000 TR index. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Index performance is for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in the index.
But with markets forecasting 250 bps in rate cuts by the end of 2025,2 those who have gotten used to 5%+ yields with little-to-no risk may need to get more creative with their income portfolios.
Explore fixed income strategies and investment ideas that can help you build better bond portfolios
Explore solutionsAlex Shingler and Justin Christofel, BlackRock’s co-heads of income investing for our multi-asset strategies group, manage a suite of multi-asset income models and portfolios for BlackRock. I asked them for their thoughts around positioning income portfolios in this environment:
What matters is “Why?”
When thinking about how to position portfolios during a cutting cycle, it’s more important to consider why the Fed is acting than the precise size and timing of rate cuts. Are they cutting rates because of positive signs like steady disinflation? Or are they cutting due to negative factors like a feared sharp drop in economic growth and job losses?
The economic backdrop matters a lot: in past cutting cycles, the 10Y treasury rate has dropped meaningfully following the first Fed rate cut… if the economy also tips into recession. When the Fed cuts in a “no recession” scenario, however, the 10Y treasury rate stayed roughly flat.
The longer-term interest rate outlook depends on whether or not we see a recession
Average of 10Y treasury yields before and after the first Fed rate cut
Source: Bloomberg
We believe we’re in for “no recession” rate cuts
The recent rise in the unemployment rate has stirred up recession fears among investors because, historically, the two go together. This time, so far, is different. The U.S. is emerging from one of the hottest labor markets in history, so even though the unemployment rate is going up, it hasn't exceeded normal mid-cycle levels. More importantly, we’re not seeing a large increase in job losses. Nearly half of the increase in the unemployment rate is due to new job seekers, and unemployment filings are nowhere near the levels we’ve seen in prior episodes.
We may be headed for a ‘no hire, no fire’ economy, but our base case is that the U.S. is not on the brink of a recession, and that this will be a ‘good news’ cutting cycle.
How to trade a ‘good news’ cutting cycle?
There’s no easy formula that always applies to cutting cycles, but here are a few things we’re doing in our portfolios and models:
The average advisor equity and fixed income sleeves are currently under-yielding cash, leaving plenty of space to add to higher-yielding asset classes.
Income opportunities in multiple asset classes
Yields
Source: Morningstar, BlackRock, Aladdin, Bloomberg, JPMorgan as of 8/31/24. Dividend equities represented by the MSCI World High Dividend Index, AAA-rated CLOs by the JP Morgan CLOIE AAA Index, Bank loans by the Morningstar LSTA Leveraged Loan Index, and Multi-Asset Income is represented by BIICX. Yields quoted are YTMs on the bond indexes and trailing twelve months on the advisor models and dividend index. The average advisor equity and fixed income sleeves refers to the 22,983 models collected and analyzed by BlackRock in the 12 months ending 7/31/24. BlackRock’s risk model data is supplemented by asset allocation and fund characteristic data from Morningstar. The portfolios analyzed represent a subset of the industry, and not its entirety. As such, there may be certain biases present in the data that reflect the advisors who choose to work with BlackRock to analyze their portfolios. This information is strictly for illustrative and educational purposes and is subject to change.
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is no guarantee of future results. Investment returns and principal values may fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. All returns assume reinvestment of dividends and capital gains. Current performance may be lower or higher than that shown. Refer to blackrock.com for most recent month-end performance.
While the era of high cash rates may be winding down, we still see plenty of opportunity to generate income in a risk-aware way: high quality dividend payers, options overlay strategies, and plus sector bonds, just to name a few.
BlackRock can help you construct well-diversified portfolios designed for today’s markets. Contact your BlackRock representative for more information or explore our online investment tools and resources.
Explore the Multi-Asset Income models for more details on how Alex and Justin are thinking about generating income in today’s environment and also the Advisor Outlook – BlackRock’s monthly market outlook for financial advisors – for more details on our latest market and portfolio insights.
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