While the outlook for this year’s ISA season is less grim than it was 12 months ago, there are still headwinds for markets in the year ahead. The UK slipped into recession at the end of 20231, while growth across Europe is anaemic2. Only the US is bucking the trend, but interest rates are starting to dampen growth expectations there as well.
Capital at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and are not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested.
In this environment, finding resilient companies is particularly important. While struggling businesses might be able to limp on in more robust economic conditions, their weaknesses will be exposed by a tougher climate. This will be reflected in sliding share prices. But there are plenty of companies that can, and do, transcend the economic environment – and may even get stronger. They tend to share a number of characteristics.
On the right side of interest rates
Interest rates have been a key factor in the economic slowdown experienced over the last 18 months. If interest rates are low, it allows companies with high debt to stay in business because the cost of repaying that debt is lower. As interest rates rise, that debt becomes more expensive and takes up a larger share of a company’s costs.
This is often one of the biggest risks factors for companies. Their profits drop, they cannot pay their debts and eventually, they go bankrupt. As Warren Buffett said: “only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked”3. Official government figures in the UK showed the number of companies going bust hit a 30-year high in January 20244.
This is why across all the BlackRock investment trust portfolios, we are looking for companies with low debt and strong balance sheets. We want to ensure companies aren’t vulnerable to every central bank move.
Why pricing power is important
Pricing power is another priority for our fund managers. Pricing power is the ability for companies to raise the prices of their products and services. They may be able to do this because they have a strong brand, or their products are in high demand, or, as in the case of areas such as healthcare, their product is unique.
During tough economic conditions, the pie gets smaller. If customers don’t have a compelling reason to buy a product, they won’t.
While inflation has been easing, input costs of all kinds continue to rise. If companies can’t pass those additional costs onto their customers, it will hurt their profitability. Equally, during tough economic conditions, the pie gets smaller. If customers don’t have a compelling reason to buy a product, they won’t. We want companies whose revenues are defensive and enduring.
A position of strength
Companies that go into a tough climate in a strong financial position can capitalise. Their indebted, weaker competitors may go bust, allowing agile companies to occupy the space they have left behind, buy their competitors or take over the strategic assets they leave behind, all at a cheaper price. Good companies will often emerge from difficult conditions in a stronger position than they went in.
This is also where a strong management team can be vitally important. A good, experienced management team will understand how to adapt the business to changing conditions, to make strategic acquisitions or sales. They will know which areas to prioritise and where to cut back. They will understand how to put the company in prime position for the recovery when it arrives.
Our approach
Fund managers with a depth of resources can look at a company from all sides, talk to its competitors, its suppliers and its management team. The fund managers across BlackRock’s range of investment trusts can call on a skilled global analyst team, with specialists across every sector and in every region. We believe this gives us a real edge in tougher conditions. We run high conviction portfolios and the portfolio will always reflect the fund managers’ best ideas.
Holding in an ISA can super-charge your investment, meaning your investment can compound faster. The recent changes to the UK ISA regime mean that investors will be able to get an additional £5,000 by investing in UK assets, allowing £25,000 a year to be sheltered from tax. At BlackRock, we have a breadth of investment trusts covering the UK, including growth and income options, but also a range of international markets.
Our view is that good companies can thrive in all conditions. The key is finding them. At BlackRock, we have built the infrastructure to find those opportunities wherever they may lie.
