擴張週期延長

各國央行政策立場趨向寬鬆。美國家庭消費穩健,支持美國有史以來最長的經濟擴張週期,短期內演變為嚴重經濟下滑的可能性不大。

推出刺激措施
G3經濟體政策利率及估計中性利率(1991年至2019年)

推出刺激措施

There is no guarantee that any forecast made will come to pass.
Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, Federal Reserve, National Bureau of Economic Research and European Central Bank, with data from Datastream Refinitiv, September 2019. Notes: The chart shows our estimate of neutral rates (known as r-star) in nominal terms, adjusting for actual inflation, and the GDP-weighted nominal policy rates of the U.S., eurozone and Japan. The neutral rate is an estimate of the short-term rate that neither fosters nor hinders GDP growth. The neutral rates are estimates based on an econometric model from a July 2018 ECB working paper. We detailed our estimates of neutral rates in the November 2018 Macro and market perspectives.

主要央行的政策利率再度下調,與中性利率的差距擴大。央行在寬鬆政策立場下,進一步推出刺激措施有助延續經濟擴張。

寬鬆環境有助遏制經濟下滑
貝萊德G3經濟體成長GPS指標及金融環境指標(2015年至2019年)

寬鬆環境有助遏制經濟下滑

Source: BlackRock Investment Institute with data from Bloomberg and Consensus Economics, September 2019. Notes: The BlackRock Growth GPS shows where the 12-month forward consensus GDP forecast may stand in three months’ time. The orange line shows the rate of GDP growth implied by our financial conditions indicator (FCI), based on its historical relationship with our Growth GPS. The FCI inputs include policy rates, bond yields, corporate bond spreads, equity market valuations and exchange rates. Forward-looking estimates may not come to pass.

  • 放寬貨幣政策帶動我們的金融環境指標迅速回升。
  • G3經濟體成長GPS指標凸顯成長預期尚未反映金融環境顯著放寬的狀況。
  • 我們認為貿易不明朗因素持續加劇,導致企業支出放緩。

寬鬆的金融環境印證我們認為全球工業生產疲弱不大可能在短期內導致經濟廣泛大幅下滑的觀點。

市場影響:
我們看好美國股票及新興市場債券。
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市場影響
Philipp Hildebrand
副主席
Jean Boivin
貝萊德智庫主管
Elga Bartsch
貝萊德智庫總體經濟研究主管
Mike Pyle
貝萊德首席投資策略師
Scott Thiel
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