保護主義浪潮

中美衝突顯著升溫加上美國政策措施難以預測,使商業計劃增添變數,可能導致經濟活動放緩。

地緣政治持續帶來不明朗因素
貝萊德全球貿易及波斯灣緊張局勢地緣政治風險指標(2006年至2019年)

地緣政治持續帶來不明朗因素

BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Refinitiv Datastream, September 2019.
Notes: See BlackRock’s Geopolitical risk dashboard for full details. We identify specific words related to geopolitical risk in general and to our top-10 risks. We use text analysis to calculate the frequency of their appearance in the Refinitiv Broker Report and Dow Jones Global Newswire databases as well as on Twitter. We then adjust for whether the language reflects positive or negative sentiment, and assign a score. A zero score represents the average BGRI level over its history from 2003 up to that point in time. A score of one means the BGRI level is one standard deviation above the average. We weigh recent readings more heavily in calculating the average. The BGRI’s risk scenario is for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect all possible outcomes as geopolitical risks are ever-evolving.

中美在舉行新一輪談判前均採取措施紓緩緊張局勢。貿易摩擦及波斯灣緊張局勢升溫,凸顯供應受衝擊的風險。

密切關注波動
各類資產的波動(2008年至2019年)

密切關注波動

BlackRock Investment Institute with data from Refinitive Datastream, CBOE and Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, September 2019.
Notes: The chart shows cross-asset volatility measured as z-scores, or how current readings compare to historical risk-adjusted averages over the 2008-2019 period. Equities are represented by the VIX, Oil by CBOE’s oil VIX, and US Treasuries by the BofA-ML’s MOVE index.

各類資產的波動相對較低,顯示市場價格並未完全反映地緣政治風險加劇的情況。我們認為各國央行政策立場溫和,有助投資人爭取時間提高投資組合韌性。

市場影響:
我們傾向降低風險承受度,包括增持現金。
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市場影響
Philipp Hildebrand
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