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2021 MIDYEAR GLOBAL OUTLOOK
Looking beyond the restart
We remain pro-risk as the powerful economic restart plays out. What lies beyond? The post-2008 crisis playbook won't work, in our view, and how a higher inflation regime will play out is key.
Investment themes
01
The new nominal
The powerful economic restart is broadening, with Europe and other major economies catching up with the U.S. We expect a higher inflation regime in the medium term – with a more muted monetary response than in the past. Tactical implication: We go overweight European equities and inflation-linked bonds. We cut U.S. equities to neutral.
02
China stands out
Growth in China is starting to slow at the same time the policy stance is relatively tight. The regulatory crackdown on dominant companies is ongoing. We see these as important aspects of China’s efforts to improve the quality of growth. Tactical implication: We introduce a neutral stance on Chinese equities and an overweight to Chinese debt.
03
Journey to net zero
There is no roadmap for getting to net zero, and we believe markets underappreciate the profound changes coming. The path is unlikely to be a smooth one – and we see this creating opportunities across investment horizons. Tactical implication: We are overweight the tech sector as we believe it is better positioned for the green transition.
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A consequential juncture
The powerful economic restart after the Covid-19 shock is playing out. We remain pro-risk as the restart broadens. The more consequential question: What lies beyond? This juncture could be as critical as the shift to the neoliberal consensus in the 1980s. The post-global financial crisis (GFC) playbook won’t work, in our view, as the historic monetary-fiscal collaboration to bridge the pandemic should lead to a higher inflation regime. This means we don’t expect another decade-long bull market in stocks and bonds.
A restart is not a traditional business cycle recovery – you can only turn the lights back on once, so to speak. Fiscal stimulus and easy monetary policy have provided a bridge through the pandemic. We have estimated the U.S. has seen more than four times the stimulus compared with the GFC for less than one-quarter the shock. We see a wide range of macro outcomes as a result.
Higher inflation regime
New policy paradigms mean central banks are now attempting to overshoot inflation targets to make up for past misses. See the chart below. The shaded region shows how high the Fed would likely need to let inflation run to make up for previous shortfalls. This is a major shift from the neoliberal consensus adopted in the early 1980s that helped contain inflation and usher in a four-decade period of falling inflation and interest rates. Yet markets have not yet bought the narrative, and are pricing in a more rapid lift-off in policy rates than what the Federal Reserve’s new policy framework and projections imply. This mismatch and resulting uncertainty could stoke volatility.
We expect a higher inflation regime in the medium term – as a result of a more muted monetary response than in the past. We see any bond yield rises driven by inflation, rather than policy hikes, making the unique environment that we have called the new nominal constructive for equities.
Only getting into the inflation zone
Average Fed inflation projections vs. average make-up, 2015-2023
Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve, June 2021. Notes: The chart shows the range of future PCE inflation levels over the Fed’s policy horizon, which we set at two years, that would be needed on average to make up for past inflation undershoots of the Fed’s 2% target. The undershoot is calculated as the average actual core PCE inflation over the previous two to five years. The red and yellow lines show the average of Fed forecasts of annual core personal consumption expenditure inflation in Q4 2021, Q4 2022 and Q4 2023 from its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections.
Staying moderately pro-risk
We are moderately pro-risk and look for opportunities from any turbulence to increase risk: Negative real, or inflation-adjusted, bond yields should support equities. We see potential for cyclical shares and regions to benefit form a broadening restart. We are turning positive on European equities and upgrading Japanese equities to neutral – and cut U.S. equities to neutral. Even if yields remain low, the direction of travel is up – and we remain underweight developed market government bonds.
For the first time, we break out Chinese assets from emerging markets as distinct tactical allocations. We believe Beijing’s focus on quality growth should bear fruit, keeping us tactically neutral on Chinese equities but heavily overweight strategically.
The path to net-zero carbon emissions has a starting point and potential destination – but there is no clear roadmap yet for getting there. Some of the coming changes may be abrupt – and add to supply and demand disruptions among commodities. We see opportunities along the way, with private market financing playing a key role.
Staying pro-risk
The broadening economic restart, coupled with global central banks’ resolve to maintain easy financial conditions, keeps us pro-risk. We favor equities over credit and government bonds on both a strategic and tactical investment horizon.
Directional views
Strategic (long-term) and tactical (6-12 month) views on broad asset classes, May 2021
| Asset | Strategic view | Tactical view | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equities |  |
|
We keep our overweight equities on a strategic horizon. We see a better outlook for earnings amid moderate valuations. Incorporating climate change in our expected returns brightens the appeal of developed market equities given the large weights of sectors such as tech and healthcare in benchmark indices. Tactically, we stay overweight equities as we expect the restart to re-accelerate and interest rates to stay low. We tilt toward cyclicality and maintain a quality bias. |
| Credit |  |
 |
We stay underweight credit on a strategic basis as valuations are rich and we prefer to take risk in equities. On a tactical horizon, we are neutral credit following the tightening in spreads in investment grade and high yield. |
| Government bonds | |
|
We are strategically underweight nominal government bonds given their diminished ability to act as portfolio ballasts with yields near lower bounds. Rising debt levels may eventually pose risks to the low rate regime. Tactically, we prefer inflation-linked bonds – particularly in the U.S. relative to the euro area on valuations. We add to our underweight on U.S. Treasuries on expectations of gradually rising yields. |
| Cash | - | |
We are moderately pro-risk and keep some cash to potentially further add to risk assets on any market turbulence. |
| Private markets | |
- | We believe non-traditional return streams, including private credit, have the potential to add value and diversification. Our neutral view is based on a starting allocation that is much larger than what most qualified investors hold. Many institutional investors remain underinvested in private markets as they overestimate liquidity risks, in our view. Private markets are a complex asset class and not suitable for all investors. |
Note: Views are from a U.S. dollar perspective, July 2021. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security.
Our granular views indicate how we think individual assets will perform against broad asset classes. We indicate different levels of conviction.
Tactical granular views
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, May 2021
| Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ||||
| United States |  |
We turn neutral U.S. equities. We see U.S. growth momentum peaking and expect other regions to be attractive ways to play the next leg of the restart as it broadens to other regions, notably Europe and Japan. | ||
| U.S. small caps | |
We stay overweight U.S. small-caps. We see potential in this segment of the U.S. equity market to benefit from the cyclical rebound in domestic activity brought about an accelerated vaccination rollout. | ||
| Europe |  |
We upgrade European equities to overweight on the back of the broadening restart. We see a sizeable pickup in activity helped by accelerating vaccinations. Valuations remain attractive relative to history and investor inflows into the region are only just starting to pick up. | ||
| U.K. | |
We turn neutral UK equities following their strong performance. We see the market as fairly valued and prefer European equities. | ||
| Japan |  |
We upgrade Japanese equities to neutral. We see a global cyclical rebound helping boost earnings growth in the second-half of the year. The country’s virus dynamics are also improving. | ||
| China | |
While overweight on a strategic basis, we see near-term risks. Growth is slowing at the same time as policy stance is tight – and may not respond in a timely way as authorities focus on the quality of growth. The anti-monopoly clampdown is ongoing. | ||
| Emerging markets | |
We downgrade EM equities to neutral. We see more uncertainty on the U.S. dollar outlook due to a risk premium from Fed communication. Many EMs have started tightening policy, showing less policy support and a greater risk of scarring. | ||
| Asia ex-Japan | |
We downgrade Asia ex-Japan equities to neutral. The anti-monopoly clampdown in the heavyweight Chinese tech sector and broader geopolitical risks dampen the outlook, in our view. | ||
| Fixed income | ||||
| U.S. Treasuries |  |
We add to our underweight on U.S. Treasuries primarily on valuations. We see the balance of risks is for gradually higher yields as markets continue to price in the economic restart, especially given the pullback in yields in recent months. | ||
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities | |
We turn overweight U.S. TIPS. We believe the recent pullback in the asset class presents an attractive opportunity, particularly on a relative basis against European inflation breakevens as the outlook for euro area inflation remains sluggish. | ||
| German Bunds | |
We are neutral on bunds. We see the balance of risks shifting back in favor of more monetary policy easing from the European Central Bank as the regional economic rebound shows signs of flagging. | ||
| Euro area peripherals | |
We are neutral euro area peripheral government bonds despite recent outperformance. We see further rate compression due to stepped-up quantitative easing by the European Central Bank and other policy actions. | ||
| China government bonds | |
We initiate a view on Chinese government bonds with an overweight. We see the relatively stability of interest rates and the carry on offer as brightening their appeal. | ||
| Global investment grade | |
We have downgraded investment grade credit to underweight. We see little room for further yield spread compression and favor more cyclical exposures such as high yield and Asia fixed income. | ||
| Global high yield | |
We downgrade high yield to neutral after the asset class’ strong performance. Spreads are now below where we see high yield as attractively valued. We prefer to take risk in equities. | ||
| Emerging market - hard currency | |
We are neutral hard-currency EM debt. We expect it to gain support from the vaccine-led global restart and more predictable U.S. trade policies. | ||
| Emerging market - local currency | |
We downgrade to neutral and see more uncertainty on the U.S. dollar outlook due to a risk premium from Fed communication. Many EMs have started tightening policy, showing less policy support and a greater risk of scarring, in our view. | ||
| Asia fixed income | |
We are overweight Asia fixed income. Outside of China, we like Asia sovereigns and credit for their yield and income given the region’s fundamental outlook. | ||
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a U.S. dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.
Wide range of potential outcomes
How does the current environment compare with the post-GFC recovery? We are on a very different path now, in our view. Historic fiscal stimulus and innovative monetary policy – the policy revolution – make a repeat of the 10-year bull market in stocks and bonds unlikely. Our base case: the New nominal.
Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, July 2021. Notes: The schematic shows hypothetical macro and policy outcomes now compared with the sluggish outcome following the GFC. These are our views on the implications for equities and government bonds as of July 2021. For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass.
Journey to net-zero
The path to net-zero carbon emissions has a starting point and potential destination – but there is no clear roadmap yet for getting there. Some of the coming changes may be abrupt – and add to supply and demand disruptions among commodities. We see opportunities along the way, with private market financing playing a key role.
Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Refinitiv Datastream, July2021. Note: chart shows the spot price of London Metal Exchange (LME) copper and Brent crude oil rebased to 100 at the start of 2000.
Meet the authors
Philipp Hildebrand
Vice Chairman
Philipp Hildebrand, Vice Chairman of BlackRock, is a member of the firm's Global Executive Committee.
Jean Boivin
Head of BlackRock investment institute
Jean Bolvin, PhD, Managing Director, is the Head of the BlackRock Investment Institute (BII).
Wei Li
Global Chief Investment Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
Wei Li, Managing Director, is Global Chief Investment Strategist at the BlackRock Investment Institute (BII).
Vivek Paul
Senior Portfolio Strategist, BlackRock Investment Institute
Vivek Paul, FIA, Managing Director, is Senior Portfolio Strategist for the Portfolio Research Group within the Blackrock Investment Institute (BII).
Elga Bartsch
Head of Macro Research
Elga Bartsch, PhD, Managing Director, heads up economic and markets research at the BlackRock Investment Institute (BII).
Scott Thiel
Chief Fixed Income Strategist
Scott Thiel, Managing Director, is Chief Fixed Income Strategist for BlackRock and a member of the BlackRock Investment Institute (BII).
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